Developing an integrative urban resilience capacity index for plan making

Urban resilience assessment can help planners understand the status of resilience in an urban system and identify needs for improving resilience capacities. The issues related to urban resilience are complex because of multiple urban system components, threats from different sources, and uncertainty of the future. Urban resilience theories have progressed to consider an urban system as an integrated complex system; however, urban resilience assessments are inconsistent and underdeveloped in assessing an integrated urban system for different threats at various uncertainties. In an effort to address this deficiency, we propose to develop an Integrative Urban Resilience Capacity Index (IURCI) for assessing urban resilience capacity for all threats. To improve the quality of urban resilience assessment, the IURCI considers urban physical form, spatial structure, preparation for future, and performance after plan implementation to measure resilience capacities of absorption, mitigation, and adaptation. It is built in a Scenario-Based Planning Support System (SB-PSS). The SB-PSS is a framework and an open system that integrates IURCI with scenario generation, modeling, and assessment to inform the public, planners, and other stakeholders about the consequences of different planning policies and to assist them make decisions for implementing a preferred scenario.     

Risk management is not enough: a conceptual model for resilience and adaptation-based vulnerability assessments

The US government has focused considerable attention on enhancing our society’s ability to protect critical systems and services from disruptive events. Over the past decade, federal agencies have bolstered their efforts to identify and minimize threats using traditional risk-based approaches such as continuity of operations and disaster risk reduction processes. However, these valuable risk identification and management tools are limited because they rely upon foreseeable factor analyses of steady-state systems with predictable hazard frequencies and severities. In assessing the capability of complex adaptive systems to cope with disruptions, an overemphasis upon engineering resilience through risk management and planning for what is predictable may cloud or detract from our efforts to better understand a system’s emergent capabilities to withstand disruptions that are unforeseeable. This article contends that augmenting traditional risk approaches through the incorporation of methodologies grounded in socio-ecological system (SES) resilience principles offers a potential avenue for improving our agencies’ abilities to assess and manage both known and unknown risks. We offer a notional rationale for broadening our examination of system vulnerabilities and present a conceptual model that combines engineering and SES resilience paradigms to facilitate the identification, assessment, and management of system vulnerabilities. The Military Installation Resilience Assessment model described herein applies risk and resilience principles to evaluate whole systems, focusing on interconnections and their functionality in facilitating response and adaptation.     

Resilience engineering: theory and practice in interdependent infrastructure systems

The economy and well-being of modern societies relies on complex and interdependent infrastructure systems to enable delivery of utilities and movement of goods, people and services. This complexity has resulted in an increased potential for cascading failures, whereby small scale initial failures in one system can result in events of catastrophic proportions across the wider network. Resilience and the emerging concept of resilience engineering within infrastructure are among the main concerns of those managing such complex systems. However, the disparate nature of resilience engineering development in various academic and industrial regimes has resulted in a diversity of definitions and characterisations. These are discussed in this paper, as are the commonalities between sectors and between different engineering disciplines. The paper also highlights the various methodologies used as part of resilience engineering implementation and monitoring, current practices including existing approaches and metrics, and an insight into the opportunities and potential barriers associated with these methodologies and practices. This research was undertaken for the Resilience Shift initiative to shift the approach to resilience in practice for critical infrastructure sectors. The programme aims to help practitioners involved in critical infrastructure to make decisions differently, contributing to a safer and better world.     

Engineering meets institutions: an interdisciplinary approach to the management of resilience

Resilience management stretches across the decoupled domains of community, corporate, and public governance. As a result, fostering resilience needs a governance structure that supports collective actions and integrates fragmented fields with different institutional frameworks. In this study, we carry out a review of three different perspectives on resilience -engineering, social, and organizational- in order to explore resilience management in the context of governance of infrastructure systems. We discuss the common practices to address resilience of engineering systems, the need and current trend for integration of institutions into these practices through formal (e.g., policies and regulations) as well as informal mechanisms (e.g., trust, norms, and shared cognitive structures). To illustrate our theorizing, we provide three illustrative case studies. The cases highlight the barriers and enablers across the three perspectives and highlight the inter-organizational context of management of resilience. We uncovered organizational dynamics such as the necessity of establishing critical functionality through organizational capacity for stakeholder engagement, the need for diverse organizations to address institutional complexity in management of resilience, and the importance of decoupling in aligning the outcomes of resilience management practices with policies. We suggest an agenda for future research on managing practices associated with management of resilience.     

A Framework for Responding to Coral Disease Outbreaks that Facilitates Adaptive Management

Predicted increases in coral disease outbreaks associated with climate change have implications for coral reef ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them. It is critical that coral reef managers understand these implications and have the ability to assess and reduce risk, detect and contain outbreaks, and monitor and minimise impacts. Here, we present a coral disease response framework that has four core components: (1) an early warning system, (2) a tiered impact assessment program, (3) scaled management actions and (4) a communication plan. The early warning system combines predictive tools that monitor the risk of outbreaks of temperature-dependent coral diseases with in situ observations provided by a network of observers who regularly report on coral health and reef state. Verified reports of an increase in disease prevalence trigger a tiered response of more detailed impact assessment, targeted research and/or management actions. The response is scaled to the risk posed by the outbreak, which is a function of the severity and spatial extent of the impacts. We review potential management actions to mitigate coral disease impacts and facilitate recovery, considering emerging strategies unique to coral disease and more established strategies to support reef resilience. We also describe approaches to communicating about coral disease outbreaks that will address common misperceptions and raise awareness of the coral disease threat. By adopting this framework, managers and researchers can establish a community of practice and can develop response plans for the management of coral disease outbreaks based on local needs. The collaborations between managers and researchers we suggest will enable adaptive management of disease impacts following evaluating the cost-effectiveness of emerging response actions and incrementally improving our understanding of outbreak causation.     

A Strategy for Prioritizing Threats and Recovery Actions for At-Risk Species

Ensuring the persistence of at-risk species depends on implementing conservation actions that ameliorate threats. We developed and implemented a method to quantify the relative importance of threats and to prioritize recovery actions based on their potential to affect risk to Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). We used assessments of threat importance and elasticities of demographic rates from population matrix models to estimate the relative contributions of threats to overall increase in risk to the population. We found that urbanization, human access, military operations, disease, and illegal use of off highway vehicles are the most serious threats to the desert tortoise range-wide. These results suggest that, overall, recovery actions that decrease habitat loss, predation, and crushing will be most effective for recovery; specifically, we found that habitat restoration, topic-specific environmental education, and land acquisition are most likely to result in the greatest decrease in risk to the desert tortoise across its range. In addition, we have developed an application that manages the conceptual model and all supporting information and calculates threat severity and potential effectiveness of recovery actions. Our analytical approach provides an objective process for quantifying threats, prioritizing recovery actions, and developing monitoring metrics for those actions for adaptive management of any at-risk species.     

Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience planning

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management.     

Resilience metrics for cyber systems

As federal agencies and businesses rely more on cyber infrastructure, they are increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks that can cause damages disproportionate to the sophistication and cost to launch the attack. In response, regulatory authorities call for focusing attention on enhancing infrastructure resilience. For example, in the USA, President Obama issued an Executive Order and policy directives focusing on improving the resilience and security of cyber infrastructure to a wide range of cyber threats. Despite the national and international importance, resilience metrics to inform management decisions are still in the early stages of development. We apply the resilience matrix framework developed by Linkov et al. (Environ Sci Technol 47:10108–10110, 2013) to develop and organize effective resilience metrics for cyber systems. These metrics link national policy goals to specific system measures, such that resource allocation decisions can be translated into actionable interventions and investments. In this paper, a number of metrics have been identified and assessed using quantitative and qualitative measures found in the literature. We have proposed a generic approach and could integrate actual data, technical judgment, and literature-based measures to assess system resilience across physical, information, cognitive, and social domains.     

Contributions of green infrastructure to enhancing urban resilience

After briefly reviewing key resilience engineering perspectives and summarising some green infrastructure (GI) tools, we present the contributions that GI can make to enhancing urban resilience and maintaining critical system functionality across complex integrated social–ecological and technical systems. We then examine five key challenges for the effective implementation of GI that include (1) standards; (2) regulation; (3) socio-economic factors; (4) financeability; and (5) innovation. We highlight ways in which these challenges are being dealt with around the world, particularly through the use of approaches that are both context appropriate and socially inclusive. Although progress surmounting these challenges has been made, more needs to be done to ensure that GI approaches are inclusive and appropriate and feature equally alongside more traditional ‘grey’ infrastructure in the future of urban resilience planning. This research was undertaken for the Resilience Shift initiative to shift the approach to resilience in practice for critical infrastructure sectors. The programme aims to help practitioners involved in critical infrastructure to make decisions differently, contributing to a safer and better world.     

Between resistance and resilience: a study of flood risk management in the Don catchment area (UK)

The river Don catchment area in Sheffield and Rotherham offers a good place for a case study of flood risk management, given the impact of a flooding event in 2007 and the way in which local events have become entwined with national and international policy shifts. To interpret local policy, a combination of systems-based and socio-cultural theory is used. Both the theories and the case study serve to disentangle the multiple meanings of resilience. Understood in opposition to flood resistance, resilience has only limited applicability in an area such as the case study where engineering works protect employment and infrastructure. Resilience as a policy discourse also lacks political transparency and a recognition of socio-cultural influences. Underlying the shift towards resilient styles of management is an appreciation of the importance of capacity, to learn and to act. The case study identifies blockages to the realisation of that capacity.     

Risk-based standards: integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches

In response to rapidly changing threats posed to increasingly complex socio-technical systems, many in the government and private sector have called for protection through risk-based standards. However, given the nature of these dynamic and uncertain threats, traditional risk assessment techniques may not be sufficient. Instead, there is a critical need for an integrated approach in which decision analytic techniques are used to assess evidence-based data with the values and preferences of decision makers. We point to three examples in the fields of nuclear power regulation, nanotechnology, and cybersecurity, where risk-based approaches (bottom–up) have been combined with decision analysis (top–down) to guide decision makers toward risk management policies that manifest both the best available evidence and the plurality of values within a society.     

法治国家和风险社会理念下的环境治理机制

面对现代环境问题,我国环境治理需要以法治国家和风险社会理念为基础进一步完善。法治国家要求立法、行政与司法的长期稳定、系统有效运作,而风险管理需要以科学技术进步为基础,对风险有及时认知和科学评估,两方面都是人类社会可持续发展的理念支撑。现代环境行政法首先强化了直接行政监管,不断加强对私权干涉的程度,而且扩展了现代环境规划制度,还创新了环境影响评估制度,同时针对现代环境问题的源头:经济上的外部性,针对性采取多种经济手段。此外在风险沟通和信息公开以及加强程序性权利上,公众参与制度进一步得到细化。这些环境治理行政手段既继承了国家传统行政机制,又都基于法治国家与风险管理理念予以补充,以更有效地、针对性地实现现代环境保护。     

A tool for building community resilience? A case study of the Lewes Pound

In the last decade, “resilience” has gained increasing recognition as a theoretical framework for understanding and managing change in complex social–ecological systems. Resilience assessments are increasingly used to inform sustainability initiatives, strategies, and policies. The Lewes Pound represents a new complementary currency model in the UK, aiming to build community resilience. However, there have been no empirical studies to date assessing the socio-economic impacts of this model. This article addresses the need to understand how such currencies function by measuring whether the Lewes Pound is capable of building resilience. This is done by developing a novel framework for estimating economic, social, and environmental outcomes, which uses a mixed-methods approach. Findings suggest that complementary currencies can enhance social-ecological resilience through awareness-raising and changes in consumption. Although economic localisation – a key indicator – is lacking, there is evidence that the Lewes Pound has developed social interactions and changed consumption patterns of its users.     

A measurement of community disaster resilience in Korea

Building a community that is resilient to disasters has become one of the main goals of disaster management. Communities that are more disaster resilient often experience less impact from the disaster and reduced recovery periods afterwards. This study develops a methodology for constructing a set of indicators measuring Community Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) in terms of human, social, economic, environmental, and institutional factors. In this study, the degree of community resilience to natural disasters was measured for 229 local municipalities in Korea, followed by an examination of the relationship between the aggregated CDRI and disaster losses, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. Identifying the extent of community resilience to natural disasters would provide emergency managers and decision-makers with strategic directions for improving local communities' resilience to natural disasters while reducing the negative impacts of disasters.     

Contextualising risk within enterprise risk management through the application of systems thinking

New and emerging risks create growing uncertainty and unpredictability within enterprise risk management. While ISO 31000:2009 is a progressive risk management framework, it is limited in its guidance on how to contextualise complex risks. The application of systems thinking to risk management provides the opportunity to better understand complexity by viewing risk and the consequence of change as part of overall system behaviour. System modelling tools enable organisations to better contextualise their risk landscape. These tools assist organisations to identify vulnerabilities between social and ecological variables in the system within they exist. Determining drivers of change leading to system vulnerabilities can assist in understanding threshold limits of the system, thus enabling the organisation to build system resilience and organisational sustainability.     

Marshaling Adaptive Capacities within an Adaptive Management Framework to Enhance the Resiliency of Wastewater Systems

We assess adaptive capacity and adaptive management as measures of wastewater (WW) system resiliency using data from interviews with WW system managers (hereafter managers) impacted by past storms. Results suggest the most resilient WW systems are those with high adaptive capacities that employ an adaptive management approach to make ongoing adaptation investments over time. Greater amounts of generic adaptive capacities (i.e., skilled staff and good leadership) help smooth both day‐to‐day and emergency operations and provide a foundation for adaptive management. In turn, adaptive management helps managers both build more generic adaptive capacities, and develop and employ greater amounts and diversity of specific adaptive capacities (i.e., soft and/or hard adaptations) that are especially important for enhancing and sustaining resiliency. Adaptive management also enables managers to better understand their system's vulnerabilities, how those vulnerabilities change over time, and what specific actions may reduce those vulnerabilities. Finally, our work suggests WW system resilience critically depends on the capacities of the human systems for building resilience as much as or more so than relying only on physical infrastructure resilience. Our work contributes to filling an important gap in the literature by advancing our understanding of the human dimensions of infrastructure resilience and has practical implications for advancing resilience in the WW sector.     

Converging disciplinary understandings of social aspects of resilience

Resilience thinking has developed separately in the bodies of literature on social-ecological systems, and that published principally within developmental psychology and mental health on the resilience of individuals. This paper explores what these bodies of literature might learn from the other towards a more integrated and enriched understanding of both social-ecological systems and social resilience. The psychology-based literature recognises a strong set of factors that enhance the strengths of individuals and communities, but lacks a sophisticated integration of the physical environmental context. The social-ecological systems literature offers an excellent foundation in complex adaptive systems, but tends to superimpose ecological concepts of system function onto the human domain, and needs to include an array of core social science concepts that are important to a full understanding of social-ecological systems. An example on north eastern Australia suggests how a converged understanding of social resilience could assist managers to acknowledge, enhance and foster social resilience in linked social-ecological systems.     

Mission assurance policy and risk management in cybersecurity

Mission assurance policy and risk management are essential in enabling decision makers to ensure successful completion of missions by addressing the security status of cyber assets. This paper presents a novel mission assurance policy that adapts to the dynamic security status of all mission assets to quickly and automatically determine mission assurance level and to decide what changes are needed accordingly. The novelty of this mission assurance policy stems from using a time Petri net model for determining the security status of cyber assets, and then employing binary or multi-valued logic decision diagrams to assess the mission assurance level. The ability of a mission assurance policy to successfully complete its objectives depends mainly on whether a risk management scheme is provided to reduce risk to an acceptable level. To that end, this paper also describes a risk management scheme to systematically deal with the main factors of risk management such as the temporal interdependencies of cyber assets, impact of attacks, and risk mitigation. Given that the status of cyber assets changes due to the dynamic cybersecurity environment of asset vulnerabilities, threats, and recovery, the proposed mission assurance policy and risk management scheme enable decision makers to cope with the real-time assessment of mission assurance level.     

Mining Communities from a Resilience Perspective: Managing Disturbance and Vulnerability in Itabira,Brazil

This paper applies the resilience lens to a social–ecological system characterized by the presence of large-scale mineral extraction operations. The system in question is the Brazilian community of Itabira, Minas Gerais, host to an iron ore operation of Vale, the world’s second largest mining corporation. Utilizing a resilience assessment framework, this study describes the various components of the Itabira social–ecological system revealing the challenges brought about by mining’s dominance. Data collection included literature reviews and semi-structured interviews with 29 individuals representing different stakeholder groups. Findings revealed that, despite recent efforts by government to regulate the industry, the mine continues to generate press and pulse disturbances that impact the resilience of the community. Operating from the standpoint that resilience depends largely upon the management capacity of stakeholders, the research identifies three ways to improve mining governance in Itabira. First, there is a need for local government to have more power in dealings with the corporation. Concurrent with this power, however, the municipality must demonstrate ownership over its fate, ideally through the creation of a sustainability plan. Finally, all key parties must demonstrate commitment to cooperating to resolve outstanding disturbances, even when these fall outside the regulatory approval process. While Itabira will remain a mining town for the foreseeable future, actions taken now to address challenges will only strengthen community well-being and sustainability moving forward.     

Riverine Threat Indices to Assess Watershed Condition and Identify Primary Management Capacity of Agriculture Natural Resource Management Agencies

Managers can improve conservation of lotic systems over large geographies if they have tools to assess total watershed conditions for individual stream segments and can identify segments where conservation practices are most likely to be successful (i.e., primary management capacity). The goal of this research was to develop a suite of threat indices to help agriculture resource management agencies select and prioritize watersheds across Missouri River basin in which to implement agriculture conservation practices. We quantified watershed percentages or densities of 17 threat metrics that represent major sources of ecological stress to stream communities into five threat indices: agriculture, urban, point-source pollution, infrastructure, and all non-agriculture threats. We identified stream segments where agriculture management agencies had primary management capacity. Agriculture watershed condition differed by ecoregion and considerable local variation was observed among stream segments in ecoregions of high agriculture threats. Stream segments with high non-agriculture threats were most concentrated near urban areas, but showed high local variability. 60 % of stream segments in the basin were classified as under U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) primary management capacity and most segments were in regions of high agricultural threats. NRCS primary management capacity was locally variable which highlights the importance of assessing total watershed condition for multiple threats. Our threat indices can be used by agriculture resource management agencies to prioritize conservation actions and investments based on: (a) relative severity of all threats, (b) relative severity of agricultural threats, and (c) and degree of primary management capacity.