Gradient modeling: A new approach to fire modeling and wilderness resource management

Managers of wilderness resources must maintain, preserve, and sometimes restore pristine ecosystems while providing for public use and enjoyment of these areas. These managers require a resource information system that can store, retrieve and integrate basic data, synthesize components to solve particular problems, and provide simulations and predictions of natural processes and management actions. Traditional information systems based on land classification and type-mapping do not provide these capabilities.Gradient modeling, a new approach to resource management and forest fire simulation, has been developed to meet these needs in Glacier National Park. The method links four major components: (1) a terrestrial site inventory coded from aerial photographs that offers 10-m resolution; (2) gradient models of vegetation and fuel that derive quantitative stand compositional data from the parameters stored in the coded inventory; (3) a fuel moisture and microclimate model that extrapolates basestation weather data to remote sites using the parameters stored in the inventory; and (4) fire behavior and fire ecology models that integrate the data from the inventory and models to calculate real-time fire behavior and ecological succession following a fire.     

Analysis and application of forest fuels data

Recent advances in fire modeling permit quantitative estimations of fire behavior from quantitative inputs that describe the fuel array and conditions, such as weather and site data, under which it will burn. This paper describes the collection, analysis, and stratification of flammable forest fuels data for coniferous forest ecosystems in Montana and then illustrates the resource management application of these data in three areas: the development of the fire behavior model, a determination of the model's sensitivity to input errors as reflected by fire behavior prediction errors, and the development of a fire hazard simulator (TAROT). A new integrated stand simulator, GANDALF, is highlighted.Conclusions center on the need to integrate fire management into the land management planning decision-making process.This work was supported by a USDI National Park Service contract to Gradient Modeling, Inc., a nonprofit research foundation devoted to ecologic research and resource management applications, and by cooperative aid agreements between Gradient Modeling, Inc. and the USDA Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Northern Forest Fire Laboratory (Fire in Multiple Use Management, R, D, and A Program).     

Evaluating the Outcomes of Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support

Does collaborative modeling improve water resource management outcomes? How does collaborative modeling improve these outcomes? Does it always work? Under what conditions is collaborative modeling most appropriate? With support from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources (IWR), researchers developed an evaluation framework to help address these questions. The framework links the effects of collaborative modeling on decision‐making processes with improvements in the extent to which resource management decisions, practices, and policies balance societal needs. Both practitioners' and participants' experiences suggest that under the right circumstances, collaborative modeling can generate these beneficial outcomes. Researchers developed performance measures and a survey to systematically capture these experiences and evaluate the outcomes of collaborative modeling processes. The survey can provide immediate feedback during a project to determine whether collaborative modeling is having the desired effect and whether course correction is warranted. Over the longer term, the systematic evaluation of collaborative modeling processes will help demonstrate in what ways and under what circumstances collaborative modeling is effective, inform and improve best practices, and raise awareness among water resource planners regarding the use of collaborative modeling for resource management decisions.     

Predicting the multiple pathways of plant succession

Classical concepts view succession as a deterministic, mechanistic regeneration of the disturbed community, and thus have limited applicability to fire-prone ecosystems, A recently developed multiple pathway succession model appears to have more realism and applicability in frequently disturbed ecosystems. It includes a set of species-specific attributes that are vital to reproduction and survival, and permits variable succession pathways depending on the stand's age (and thus species composition) when disturbed. Examples from Australia and the northern Rocky Mountains (USA) are presented, as are approaches to refining and improving the model.     

LORENDAS: A COMPUTER BASED SYSTEM FOR THE MODELING OF LONG-RANGE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPLIES*

This paper reviews a time-dynamic linearprogramming modeling system designed for quantitative analysis of worldwide energy resource development and processing activities over a 25 - 30 year time horizon. The model includes explicit representation of exploration and production operations for energy minerals, as well as of the downstream supply, conversion and distribution of different energy forms, accounting for interfuel substitution. The uses of this model, which include forecasts of resource development, assessment of new technologies and analysis of energy policies, are discussed. The paper outlines a series of smaller, national or regional energy planning models which can be derived from the worldwide LORENDAS modeling structure and tailored to the needs of individual developing countries.     

Integrating fire management into land-use planning: A multiple-use management research,development, and applications program

The traditional view of fire as a destructive agent requiring immediate suppression is giving way to the view that fire can and should be used to meet land management goals. Thus,fire control is being replaced by the more general concept offire management, which is based on the need to integrate fire policy with land management objectives. The social, economic, and ecologic effects of fire must be evaluated in the selection of land management alternatives.The activities of fire management organizations—fire prevention, control, and use of fire—must respond to needs of land management. Many agencies have developed fire organizations as separate entities that set their own objectives. The many land and resource managers who have recognized the need to incorporate fire considerations into land-use planning have so far lacked the techniques to do so.As a natural process, fire has an important function in forest and range ecosystems. Fire can greatly influence the quantity and quality of resource outputs; it is a two-edged sword that can either harm or benefit our goals, depending upon the complex effects of fire and the nature of our wants.The Fire in Multiple-Use Management Research, Development, and Applications (RD&A) Program was initiated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, at the Northern Forest Fire Lab in Missoula to assist land managers. This profile explains what an RD&A program is; discusses its mission, goals, and approach to the problem; and tells why the approach involves federal laboratories, universities, and private research foundations.     

Assessing the Effects of Management Alternatives on Habitat Suitability in a Forested Landscape of Northeastern China

Forest management often has cumulative, long-lasting effects on wildlife habitat suitability and the effects may be impractical to evaluate using landscape-scale field experiments. To understand such effects, we linked a spatially explicit landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS) with habitat suitability index (HSI) models to assess the effects of management alternatives on habitat suitability in a forested landscape of northeastern China. LANDIS was applied to simulate future forest landscape changes under four management alternatives (no cutting, clearcutting, selective cutting I and II) over a 200-year horizon. The simulation outputs were linked with HSI models for three wildlife species, the red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris), the red deer (Cervus elaphus) and the hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia). These species are chosen because they represent numerous species that have distinct habitat requirements in our study area. We assessed their habitat suitability based on the mean HSI values, which is a measure of the average habitat quality. Our simulation results showed that no one management scenario was the best for all species and various forest management scenarios would lead to conflicting wildlife habitat outcomes. How to choose a scenario is dependent on the trade-off of economical, ecological and social goals. Our modeling effort could provide decision makers with relative comparisons among management scenarios from the perspective of biodiversity conservation. The general simulation results were expected based on our knowledge of forest management and habitat relationships of the species, which confirmed that the coupled modeling approach correctly simulated the assumed relationships between the wildlife, forest composition, age structure, and spatial configuration of habitat. However, several emergent results revealed the unexpected outcomes that a management scenario may lead to.     

Reduced complexity models for regional aquatic habitat suitability assessment

Generalizable methods that identify suitable aquatic habitat across large river basins and regions are needed to inform resource management. Habitat suitability models intersect environmental variables to predict species occurrence, but are often data intensive and thus are typically developed at small spatial scales. This study estimated mean monthly aquatic habitat suitability throughout Utah (USA) for Bonneville Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii utah) and Bluehead Sucker (Catostomus discobolus) with publicly available, geospatial datasets. We evaluated 15 habitat suitability models using unique combinations of percent of mean annual discharge, velocity, gradient, and stream temperature. Environmental variables were validated with observed conditions and species presence observations to verify habitat suitability estimates. Stream temperature, gradient, and discharge best predicted Bonneville Cutthroat Trout presence, and gradient and discharge best predicted Bluehead Sucker presence. Simple aquatic habitat suitability models outperformed models that used only streamflow to estimate habitat for both species, and are useful for conservation planning and water resources decision-making. This modeling approach could enable resource managers to prioritize stream restoration across vast regions within their management domain, and is potentially compatible with water management modeling to improve ecological objectives in management models.     

From Management to Negotiation: Technical and Institutional Innovations for Integrated Water Resource Management in the Upper Comoé River Basin, Burkina Faso

This study focuses on the potential role of technical and institutional innovations for improving water management in a multi-user context in Burkina Faso. We focus on a system centered on three reservoirs that capture the waters of the Upper Comoé River Basin and servicing a diversity of users, including a sugar manufacturing company, a urban water supply utility, a farmer cooperative, and other downstream users. Due to variable and declining rainfall and expanding users’ needs, drastic fluctuations in water supply and demand occur during each dry season. A decision support tool was developed through participatory research to enable users to assess the impact of alternative release and diversion schedules on deficits faced by each user. The tool is meant to be applied in the context of consultative planning by a local user committee that has been created by a new national integrated water management policy. We contend that both solid science and good governance are instrumental in realizing efficient and equitable water management and adaptation to climate variability and change. But, while modeling tools and negotiation platforms may assist users in managing climate risk, they also introduce additional uncertainties into the deliberative process. It is therefore imperative to understand how these technological and institutional innovations frame water use issues and decisions to ensure that such framing is consistent with the goals of integrated water resource management.     

Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.     

Assessing Land-Use Impacts on Natural Resources

/ Much information is available on changes that occur in natural resources from both spatially-explicit data on environmental conditions and models of the interactions of these conditions and resources with human activities. The strategy for assessing land-use impacts on natural resources developed in this paper provides a framework for using relevant data and models to address questions of how management practices can promote both use and protection of resources. This assessment strategy integrates spatially explicit environmental data using geographic information systems (GIS) with computer models that simulate changes in land cover in response to land-use impacts. The computer models also simulate susceptibility of species to changes in habitat suitability and landscape patterns. The approach is applied to management of limestone barrens on the Oak Ridge Reservation in East Tennessee. Potential limestone barrens habitats are identified by overlaying appropriate soils, geology, slope, and land-use/land-cover conditions. Their validity is tested against known sites containing rare species that occur in these habitats. The location of habitats at risk in the aftermath of human activities is determined by using an available area model that identifies the size and proximity of sites that particular types of species can no longer use as habitat. The resulting risk map can be used in land management planning. The approach uses readily available in situ and remotely sensed data and is applicable to a wide range of locations and land-use scenarios. This approach can be refined based on needs identified by land managers and on the sensitivity of the results to the resolution of available resource information.KEY WORDS: Land management; Assessment; Habitat characterization; Limestone barrens; Ecological modeling; Geographic information systems     

页岩气开采中压裂废液处理技术的发展及应用

作为新型的天然气资源,近年来页岩气的开采力度不断增加。文章广泛调研页岩气开采过程中的场地修复、压裂废液处理等方面的环境污染风险,国内外现行压裂废液的处理工艺,系统分析了中和法、絮凝法和氧化法等处理工艺,并结合实际应用效果和企业需求对技术发展方向进行了预测,可为非常规油气资源开发领域提供理论参考。     

Population viability analysis as a tool in wildlife conservation policy: With reference to Australia

Wildlife conservation policy for endangered species restoration follows a six-phase process. Population viability analysis (PVA) can play a major contributing role in four of these. PVA, as discussed here, is a technique where extinction vulnerabilities of small populations are estimated using computer simulation modeling. The benefits and limitations of using PVA in wildlife decision and policy processes are reviewed based on our direct experience. PVA permits decision makers to set time frames for management, estimate the required magnitude of restoration efforts, identify quantitative targets for species recovery, and select, implement, monitor, and evaluate management strategies. PVA is of greatest value for rare species policy and management. However, a limitation of PVA simulation models is that they are constrained by the amount of biological data available, and such data are difficult to obtain from small populations that are at immediate risk of extinction. These problems may be overcome with improved models and more data. Our experience shows benefits of PVA far outweigh its limitations, and applications of the approach are most useful when integrated with decision analysis and completed within an adaptive management philosophy. PVAs have been carried out for 14 Victorian species and less used elsewhere in Australia. Management and recovery plans are developed from these PVAs. We recommend that PVA be used to guide research programs, develop conservation strategies, and inform decision and policy making for both endangered and nonendangered species because it can significantly improve many aspects of natural resource policy and management.     

A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized.The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,–1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios. Published on line     

Drivers of illegal resource extraction: An analysis of Bardia National Park,Nepal

While park-people conflicts have received worldwide attention, the extent of illegal resource extraction and the relationship with communities’ livelihoods has gained little attention in the literature. Thus this paper investigates the impact of socio-economic factors involved in illegal fuel wood and fodder extraction at Bardia National Park in Nepal. Household questionnaires, key-informant interviews and focus groups were conducted to identify different plant species used by households and explore the causes and mode of resource extraction in three buffer zone villages in the park. Altogether 50 different plants were identified by villagers that were used regularly for different livelihood purposes. Almost half of the respondents met their needs by illegally and regularly extracting resources from the park. Incentive schemes in the form of development projects were important but not sufficient in meeting the basic needs of households’ especially for such daily items such as fuel wood and fodder. The results described in this paper showed that proximity and access to resources either in the national park, the buffer zone community forest or the government forest, and impact on the livelihoods significantly influenced the likelihood of illegal resource extraction activities. Villages that differed in terms of their location to the resource base, the provision of alternative resources and influence of these on their livelihoods showed significant differences in terms of their patterns of resource extraction and use of these resources. As resource use options, resource interest, and resource extraction patterns were different between villages and dependent on circumstances specific to villages, site-specific management strategies were necessary and more influential than the enforcement of ‘one-size fits all’ policies. It is suggested that park management plans should be flexible and adaptive enough to meet site-specific contexts and to endear wider support from local communities.     

RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Natural fire management in National Parks

An evolving understanding of ecological processes, together with ambiguities in National Park Service policy, have led to multiple interpretations of the role of management in our large natural area National Parks. National Park Service management policies must be dynamic and responsive to changes in scientific knowledge and societal values. We propose that the principal aim of NPS resource management in natural areas is the unimpeded interaction of native ecosystem processes and structural elements. The case of the changing role of natural fire management is used as an example in developing this rationale.