农业贸易政策环境影响评价的案例研究

随着国际贸易自由化程度的提高,贸易与环境问题越来越引起人们的重视。对贸易政策进行环境影响评价。指导贸易政策的制定。是解决贸易所带来的环境问题的重要途径。了解中国入世后一系列的农业政策调整会在多大程度上影响环境。对于新的政策决策具有指导意义。本文在总结贸易政策环境影响评价研究步骤和方法的基础上。对农业贸易政策环境影响评价的特点进行讨论,并以河北省迁安市小麦种植业为例,进行农业贸易政策环境影响评价的案例研究。由于农业贸易政策直接作用于农业生产经营活动。再通过农业生产经营等活动间接地影响环境质量状况。本文借助转移矩阵方法进行分析评价。     

贸易自由化对我国环境的影响——基于ACT模型的实证研究

近年来我国对外贸易发展迅速，但伴随而来的环境污染问题也越来越严重。学术界对我国贸易与环境问题进行了多方面研究，但并未得到一致的结论。文参考ACT模型，试图将贸易自由化对我国环境的影响从经济发展对我国环境的整体效应中分离出来进行研究。本文采用panel数据对我国1992-2004年期间贸易自由化的环境效应进行了实证分析，结果表明：贸易自由化对我国环境消极的规模效应和结构效应远远超过了积极的技术效应，即贸易自由化使我国环境恶化。这主要归因于我国粗放型的经济增长方式以及不完善的环境法规。要改善其不利影响，我国应采用法律和经济措施相结合的办法，从而达到减少贸易的规模效应、改变现有贸易结购以及加强其技术效应的目的。     

气候变暖等因素对山东省种植业产出的影响

通过建立引入气候因素的种植业生产函数模型,利用1990-2009年山东省40个县市种植业生产及气象面板数据,运用产出增长分解法,实证分析气候因素和非气候因素对山东省种植业产出的影响并对产出增长的各要素贡献进行分解。结果表明:气候变暖对山东省种植业带来明显的负面影响。1990-2009年间气候因素对山东省40个县市的总体产出增长的影响为-11.03%,在其他条件不变的情况下,平均温度每升高1℃,总体种植业总产值减少2.2%,总体产值增长下降1.48%;温度升高对鲁西北地区、鲁南地区种植业产出的影响最为明显;同时,降水对种植业产出影响显著,降水因素使得山东省种植业产出增长减少16.86%;物质投入中化肥和农药对种植业产出增长贡献最大,但农业劳动力减少,特别是种植业劳动力的减少,开始显著地影响种植业产出,使得种植业产出增长减少5.90%;技术进步的影响作用在下降。     

华中地区种植业生产碳排放驱动因素分析

农业是温室气体排放的第二大人为因素源,探寻农业生产碳排影响因素,对实现农业节能减排有重要意义。以中国粮食主产区华中地区为背景,综合运用IPCC(2006)推荐的方法估算华中地区1994~2013年种植业生产的碳排放量,基于Kaya恒等式、灰色关联模型对华中地区种植业生产的碳排放驱动因素进行识别并探讨主要影响因素的贡献。结果显示:(1)华中地区1994~2013年种植业生产碳排放呈上升趋势,2013年达到了11 257.63万t CO2-eq。其中,河南省、湖北省、湖南省的种植业生产碳排放增幅分别为101.29%、24.88%、21.73%;(2)在过去的20 a中,种植业生产效率、种植业结构、农业劳动力规模对农业生产碳排放具有一定抑制作用,而农业经济发展则促进了种植业生产碳排,具有一定的推动作用;(3)近20 a的农业发展过程中,华中地区种植业生产碳排放最主要的贡献因子是种植业结构,其次是农业从业人口、种植业产值、人均农用物资消耗量。     

农业分工有利于化肥减量施用吗?——基于江汉平原水稻种植户的实证

促进农户的化肥减量施用是改善农业面源污染、推动农业可持续发展的重要举措。已有研究重点关注农地流转及由此实现的农地规模经营对化肥减量化的影响,普遍忽视农业分工的减量贡献。本文通过构建“农业分工-内生技术进步-化肥减量施用”理论分析框架,阐明了农业横向分工与纵向分工促进化肥减量施用的作用机理,然后结合2017年对江汉平原983个水稻种植户调查数据,运用线性回归模型与分位数回归模型进行实证检验。结果表明:农业横向分工和纵向分工均能够显著降低水稻种植户的化肥施用量;对于化肥施用量处于低位分布的农户,纵向分工的减施效应相对较强;对于化肥施用量处于高位分布的农户,横向分工的减施效应更为明显。考虑宏观农业化肥减量化政策冲击和模型潜在的内生性等问题后,上述结论仍然稳健。进一步的影响机理挖掘发现,横向分工与纵向分工分别通过人力资本积累、迂回技术引进效应促进实现农户化肥减量施用。在农业家庭经营参与分工经济的过程中,横向分工及其区域专业连片化所表达的市场容量是纵向分工深化、知识外溢与人力资本积累的重要条件。由此,当微观农户开展横向专业化分工并演进为区域专业连片化生产时,横向分工的人力资本积累效应和纵向分工的迂回技术引进效应将得到强化,进而显著促进农户化肥减量施用。本文的政策含义是:优化作物生产布局,强化农业横向分工,特别是区域专业连片化、组织化生产,形成小农户与大农业生产格局;培育多样化农业生产委托代理市场,鼓励农业家庭经营卷入分工经济。     

虚拟耕地资源与农业经济增长：作用机理及贡献份额研

虚拟耕地资源被广泛认为是缓解国内耕地资源压力和促进农业经济增长的重要举措之一。在论证虚拟耕地资源贸易对农业经济增长作用机理分析的基础上，计算1996~2018年中国主要农产品虚拟耕地资源贸易量，并对虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长中的贡献份额进行实证分析，为调整对外贸易战略及优化耕地资源策略提供参考。结果表明：虚拟耕地资源可以在更大范围内实现耕地资源的优化配置；主要农产品贸易的巨大逆差决定了中国是虚拟耕地资源净进口大国，其中，油料是虚拟耕地资源净进口量最大的品种；虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长的贡献率为0.26%，观点得到了佐证。同时，还提出了要试点实施虚拟耕地资源，全力以赴做好贸易政策调整战略；充分利用国内外“两种资源、两个市场”，倒逼主要农产品进行结构调整；努力构建虚拟耕地资源管理新模式，推动农业“走出去”与市场多元化结合等政策建议。     

农业化学品投入状况及其对环境的影响

农业生产中,农业化学品的大量使用产生了明显的负外部性影响,尤其是农业的面源污染问题随化肥、农药投入的增加而不断加剧。通过统计分析方法,对农业化学品投入数量及区域分布特征、农业化学品投入存在的问题及其所造成的面源污染问题进行分析。结果表明:化肥和农药总投入不断增加,其中河南、山东、江苏、安徽、湖北和湖南6省投入总额接近全国的一半;农业化学品使用存在过量投入、投入结构失衡和施肥施药技术落后等问题;农业化学投入品的过量使用造成的环境污染问题正不断加剧,农业面源污染排放对污染总量的贡献率不断上升。最后提出了相关政策建议,包括加强农业面源污染控制的政策框架和配套制度建设、推广成熟的化肥农药施用技术和加强农业环保教育。     

有机无机肥料对农业环境影响述评

论述了有机肥在中国的使用情况和对农业生产的作用、化肥对农产品质量的影响、化肥对土壤肥力的贡献、有机肥和化肥对大气环境和水体的影响。目前人们在对化肥使用的认识上普遍存在误区,认为施用化肥一定会对环境产生污染,只有使用有机肥才能解决问题。中国是一个人口大国,今后在一个相当长的时间内,农业产品的生产在养分的投入上仍然需要以化肥为主,充分、合理、平衡的化肥投入不仅能满足人们对农产品数量上的需要,而且一定能满足人们对农产品品质的要求。化肥的合理施用可以改善和提高农产品品质,提高土壤有机质含量,改善土壤理化性质,减少温室气体的排放和水体污染。化肥本身是无害的,有害的是对化肥的不合理施用。在肥料问题上,今后需要关注 的应该是生产和使用更优质、更高效的化肥,推广科学合理的施肥技术,提高化肥的利用效率。     

我国农村公共产品供给与农民负担研究

在当前，我国农村公共产品供给表现为不规范与整体不足，甚至农民成为直接资金的供给者．这不利于减轻农民负担，并且在一定程度上扭曲了农业生产中资源配置，影响了农业的发展。而仅将“费”改“税”是不能根本解决农民负担。因此，必须对农树公共产品供给进行制度创新。     

贸易结构与中国农业资源约束——一个理论假设的经验研究

生态不平等交换理论认为垂直出口流动是一个关键的结构性机制,有利于发达国家通过分层的贸易结构过度利用发展中国家的生态资源并将环境成本外部化,引起后者资源消费约束和生态环境退化。本文通过构建中国农业部门初级资源及产品的加权垂直出口流量指数,采用人均CGTF生态足迹衡量农业资源消费的指标,就分层贸易结构等因素对中国1962-2011年农业资源消费水平的影响进行了经验分析。研究结果发现:中国与发达国家之间的分层贸易结构显著地抑制了中国对农业初级资源及产品的消费,中国在分层的贸易结构中着实成为了发达国家基于消费的环境成本外部化的受体国;人均产出的增长会促进人均农业资源消费水平的提高;出口依赖不利于国内人口的农业资源消费;城市化和服务业比重变量均会降低人均CGTF生态足迹。     

入世前后中国农业贸易引致的就业“创造与替代”

我国加入世贸组织后,除了粮食安全、比较优势、竞争力等方面的影响研究外,农产品贸易开放对我国农业生产部门就业的影响一直令人关注,是具有比较优势的劳动密集型农产品出口带来更多就业创造,还是土地密集型农产品进口引致更多就业替代?本文运用1994-2009年数据,对入世前后农产品贸易开放引致的农业就业效应进行全面系统的实证分析,并对在不同情形下我国未来贸易引致的农业就业替代效应的程度和方式进行了模拟分析。研究结果表明:入世后我国农产品贸易引致的农业就业效应呈现出更明显的就业净替代变化;同时,在技术水平不变的情况下,我国未来劳动密集型农产品的实际出口增速与平抑就业替代压力的"理想增速"相距甚远,未来土地密集型净进口所产生的农业就业替代量将在较大程度上超过劳动密集型净出口创造的就业机会,我国农业就业整体"净替代"的趋势可能将长期持续。     

Environmental externalities in relation to agricultural sector in Thailand with trade-linked analysis

Thailand plays an important role in the international trade of food and agricultural products, which is in alignment with its national strategy of serving as the “kitchen of the world.” When looking at its agricultural promotion and export policies, the country only counts the value gains from exports while neglecting environmental externalities related to plantation practices. The purpose of this study was to perform a trade-off analysis between consumptive water, land, and fertilizer use together with the economic values of major crops for export and consumption in the country. The results show that to gain income from agricultural exports, the country has exploited various natural resources. The area used to harvest rice, sugarcane, cassava, and rubber adds up to approximately 15.3 million ha: 7.2 million ha of which is for domestic consumption and 8.1 ha for export. To produce Thailand’s agricultural exports, total water use is estimated to be 49.8–67.5 billion m³ per year (61–65 %), while the amount used to produce crops for domestic consumption is 26.5–43.7 billion m³ per year (35–39 %). Meanwhile, 1,056–1,826 thousand tons (54 %) of fertilizer was used on crops for domestic consumption, and 1,222–1,370 thousand tons (46 %) of fertilizer was used on export crops. The best crop choice for export in terms of its export value, land use, fertilizer use, and water consumption is rubber. The worst crop choices for export are rice and cassava. More sustainable agricultural practices are needed to effect improvements such as increased yields and reduced fertilizer and water use.     

WTO“稀土案”与中国自然资源出口管制的完善

举世瞩目的 WTO"稀土案"于2014年8月7日终落帷幕。同先前的"原料案"一样,中国还是难逃败诉的命运。上诉机构支持申诉方的大部分指控,再次否决了《1994年关税与贸易总协定》(General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade of 1994,以下简称GATT)第20条对中国《入世议定书》的可适用性,从而确认中国对稀土、钨、钼三种原材料采取的出口税及配额等管制措施违背了WTO相关规则和入世所作的特殊承诺。作为自然资源的进出口大国,在自然资源贸易纠纷(特别是出口管制问题)不断"升温"和WTO争端解决机制运用愈来愈频繁的今天,中国应认真总结和反思这场"稀土保卫战"失利带来的经验教训,以从源头上破解中国出口管制措施在WTO体制下遭遇的法律困境,避免今后类似案件败诉的重现。基于此,本文综合应用案例分析、文本分析、历史分析和比较分析等方法对"稀土案"争讼的焦点和争端解决机构(DSB)的裁决意见做了详尽的透析,结果发现此案中DSB的审理不同程度存在着解释僵化、无视中国缔约真意及主观随意、前后矛盾等失范之处,对中国颇为不公。不过,该案也从另外一方面暴露出中国出口管制立法的疏漏与实施缺陷。是故,本文建议中国:1请求部长级会议/总理事会对GATT与《入世议定书》关系做出统一解释,并单独将出口税承诺纳入减让表;2重视DSB既有的裁决思路,根据WTO规则修改相关出口管制法规;3加强资源开采的法律管控,提高资源税的征收标准;4确保对内外资源需求企业的管制一致,优化出口许可管理,努力从WTO法和国内法两个层面推动现行自然资源出口秩序的完善,使中国今后对自然资源的出口管制既能符合WTO规则又能达致确保本国经济可持续性发展之目的。     

Environment Implications of China''''s WTO Accession

China's WTO accession will have important environmental implications. This article aims at providing environmental analysis of the impact of China's accession to the WTO, based on its final offer for WTO accession and a 53-sector, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China. We try to provide some empirical evidences for policy makers to evaluate the effects of China's WTO accession from environmental prospective.     

Regionalization of climate scenarios impacts on maize production and the role of cultivar and planting date as an adaptation strategy

Understanding climate change and its impacts on crops is crucial to determine adaptation strategies. Simulations of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are often run for individual sites. Nevertheless, the scaling up of crop model results can bring a more complete picture, providing better inputs for the decision-making process. The objective of this paper was to present a procedure to assess the regional impacts of climate scenarios on maize production, as well as the effect of crop cultivars and planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The focus region is Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The identification of agricultural areas cultivated with annual crops was done for the whole state, followed by the coupling of soil and weather information necessary for the crop modeling procedure (using crop model and regional circulation models). The impact on maize yields, so as the effect of adaptation strategies, was calculated for the 2012–2040 period assuming different maize cultivars and planting dates. Results showed that the exclusion of non-agricultural areas allowed the crop model to correctly simulate local and regional production. Simulations run without adaptation strategies for the 2012–2040 period showed reductions of 11.5–13.5 % in total maize production, depending on the cultivar. By using the best cultivar for each agricultural area, total state production was increased by 6 %; when using both adaptation strategies—cultivar and best planting date—total production increased by 15 %. This analysis showed that cultivar and planting date are feasible adaptation strategies to mitigate deleterious effects of climate scenarios, and crop models can be successfully used for regional assessments.     

How changes in diet and trade patterns have shaped the N cycle at the national scale: Spain (1961–2009)

During the last five decades (1961–2009), Spain has experienced a considerable expansion in the nutrient cycle of its agricultural sector and, in particular, a threefold increase in anthropogenic reactive nitrogen inputs, from 536 Gg N year^?1 in 1961–1965 to 1673 Gg N year^?1 in 2005–2009. Import of feed (soybean, cereals, and cakes) from America and Europe to supply a growing livestock population constitutes the largest share of this increase, along with intensification of synthetic fertilizer use. While in the early 1960s, Spain was nearly self-sufficient in terms of food and feed supply, the net import of agricultural products presently equals domestic crop production, when expressed in terms of nitrogen content (ca. 650 Gg N year^?1). The most important driver of this shift appears to be the rapid change in domestic consumption patterns, which evolved from a typical Mediterranean diet to an animal-protein-rich diet similar to the North European and American diets. Besides livestock production mostly for national consumption, the Spanish agricultural system has specialized in vegetal products with low N content such as olive oil, wine, vegetables, and citrus fruit, which are for the most part exported. The nitrogen load exported outside the Spanish borders by rivers is very low (6.5 % of the total net N input). As a result of the high import and low export of reactive nitrogen, the Spanish mainland is suffering from considerable pollution by local emissions of reactive nitrogen forms to air and water.     

Empirical analysis of carbon tariff’s effect on the export structure of China’s manufacturing industry and social welfare based on the GTAP model

In recent years, carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one. Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries, and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries, it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries. Concentrated on the manufacturing industry, which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China’s export structure, this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade. First, by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model, it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China’s manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China’s manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax. Furthermore, with the application of the GTAP model, it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China’s manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways, and then analyzes the influence on China’s manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well. The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China’s export price and export volume, and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China. However, the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff. In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China’s energy-intensive industries, such as chemical rubber products, oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry, whose export would be reduced, the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest, which will decrease the paper industry’s export ranging from 1.79% to 6.05%, whereas the other industries’ export will increase. Anyhow, it will promote China’s manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent. In addition, it will lead to a decrease in China’s welfare, with a decrease between $2.134 billion and $8.347 billion. Finally, this paper provides information on international coordination, export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China’s manufacturing industry.     

江苏太湖地区农业耕作制度变化及其对地表水土环境的影响

农业耕作制度变化及其环境效应是国内外广泛关注的学术前沿问题。近60 a来，江苏太湖地区农业耕作制度发生较大变化，主要表现在种植制度从偏重粮食生产转向粮经作物协调发展，用地作物增多而养地作物减少，作物品种经历了改进与优化过程，作物熟制经历了从“双三制”恢复到两熟制。施肥种类从有机肥为主转变为完全施用化肥，氮磷钾肥投入比例从长期严重失调发展到逐渐趋于协调。在总结近60 a来江苏太湖地区农业耕作制度变化特征的基础上，〖JP2〗分析了农业耕作制度变化对地表水土环境的影响，并提出了今后需要进一步关注的研究方向     

Public Investment and Environmental Sustainability of Agricultural Production in China

The excessive application of fertilizer and pesticides in grain production in China has posed a threat to the environmental sustainability of agricultural production. One of the major reasons of the increasing usage of chemical inputs by farmers is their trying to reach higher yields, especially in absence of adequate public inputs, such as development and extension of appropriate technology and necessary production infrastructure, etc. Based on the crop specific data of the past 20 years, this paper examines how the public investments in agricultural researches could impact on the reduction of farmers' private material inputs of major grain crops in China. It manifests that the increased investments in public sector, especially in agricultural researches, is a favorable and effective way to reduce farmers' private material inputs and should be given a priority consideration in the policy emendation to increase yields and improve production sustainability.