Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

Forest dynamics in Mississippi, USA: a hybrid statistical and geospatial analysis

Understanding forest changes and its trajectory is important to develop policy options and future scenarios for climate analysis. This research is conducted to gain insights on secondary forests change using Mississippi, USA, as a case study. We investigate the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of secondary forests at high resolution and examine the forces driving their changes. An extensive literature review is conducted to refine the conceptual framework of forest changes and identify the underlying key factors. Forest changes are quantified at high spatial (30-m) and temporal (biennial) resolutions, using time series remotely sensed data between 1984 and 2007. A number of geospatial and socioeconomic data were compiled to analyze the spatial variations of forest disturbances and their linkages to various socioeconomic, political, and biogeophysical factors. The results show that the secondary forests are highly dynamic and variable. Disturbances and regeneration occur continuously everywhere in a systematic and coordinated fashion. This pattern prevents an extensive disturbance and increases total forest cover. Market conditions (i.e., timber price) are the key predictor of the level and overall trend of forest disturbances. However, spatial patterns of forest dynamics cannot be explained by location-specific biophysical, socioeconomic, and policy factors identified in the literature. They can best be described by the ecological characteristics of the forests (i.e., the forest type and age distribution), which have a clear economic linkage. The research shows that regenerated forests frequently experience loss and gain of their extent, and their ecological characteristics change drastically on a short-term basis. These results point out challenges and opportunities in forest management and policy with regard to reforestation.     

Differences in plant species diversity between conifer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus tabulaeformis</Emphasis>) plantations and natural forests in middle of the Loess plateau

We compared differences in plant species diversity between conifer (Pinus tabulaeformis) plantations and natural secondary forests in the middle of the Loess plateau. The goal of the study was to examine the differences in the effect of stand development on species diversity and in species responses to changes between forest types and between forest layers. To clarify the effects of differences in forest management, we emphasized the functional types of plant species occurring in each forest type. The result as follow: (1) The H′ and S of tree layer were significantly lower in natural conifer forest than old conifer and secondary forest, but were not different compared with mid aged conifer forest. The H′ and S of shrub layer were significantly lower in mid aged conifer forest compared with other forest types. The H′ of herb layer showed no significant differences in the four forest types. The evenness index (J′) of tree layer of mid aged conifer forest was lower than other forest communities and its J′ of shrub layer was highest although its richness of shrub layer was lower than in the other forest types. (2) The analysis of β diversity index also indicated large differences between conifer plantations and natural forests. Although the tree layer species were similar in old plantation and natural conifer forests, they differed greatly between the natural conifer and secondary forests. The natural conifer and secondary forest species composition in shrub layer differed significantly from those in plantation and secondary plots. Tree species were significantly less common in plantations than in abandoned coppice forests. Species composition in the herb layer of different forest types was similar. (3) The management of P. tabulaeformis plantations alters plant species composition considerably; the number of sub tall-tree species is increased in old aged conifer forest, especially species dispersed by animals. Plantation management appears to affect ecological processes through seed dispersal. From the perspective of management, the change in the structure and composition of the canopy in plantations could affect the behavior of dispersers and regeneration.     

金沙江干热河谷几种引进树种人工植被的生态学研究

采用标准木法和收获法,对金沙江元谋干热河谷几种引进树种的人工植被（即赤桉×新银合欢混交林、赤桉纯林、新银合欢纯林和印楝纯林）各层植被生物量与天然次生植被（坡柳-扭黄茅灌草丛）进行了比较研究,同时对各类植被的物种组成和物种多样性进行了比较分析。结果表明：（1）采用引进树种人工恢复的植被积累了大量生物质,总生物量大小依次为：赤桉×新银合欢混交林（4491 t/hm2）>新银合欢纯林（3991 t/hm2）>赤桉纯林（3857 t/ hm2）>印楝纯林（1306 t/hm2）>天然次生林（935 t/ hm2）。人工恢复植被生物量主要集中在乔木层,天然次生植被生物量主要集中在灌木、草本和凋落物层。（2）人工恢复植被的物种数均少于天然次生植被,而且不同植被的物种数和物种组成也存在差异。（3）各植被的Shannon wiener多样性指数和Margalef丰富度指数均表现为：印楝纯林>坡柳-扭黄茅灌草丛>赤桉纯林>赤桉×新银合欢混交林。在Alatato均匀度指数方面,各人工植被之间的差异不大,但人工植被与天然次生植被之间有显著差异。〖     

Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.     

FORIA: Forest Impact Analysis. An interactive decision support software providing information on the secondary effects of radiological countermeasures applied in forests.

FORIA (Forest Impact Analysis) is a decision support software that provides a synthesis of published information pertaining to the application of radiological countermeasures in forests and the secondary impacts that may result from their application. By linking relevant key parameters describing the forest environment and its social and economic roles, with information on the effects of countermeasures on a range of forest features, the potential secondary impacts of the countermeasures are indicated. User inputs refine this generic system to reveal the potential secondary effects of selected countermeasures for specific forest scenarios. FORIA has an Eastern European focus but is applicable to all forest scenarios.     

Analyzing the carbon dynamics of central European forests: comparison of Biome-BGC simulations with measurements

Biogeochemical models are often used for making projections of future carbon dynamics under scenarios of global change. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the process-based biogeochemical model Biome-BGC for application in central European forests from the lowlands to upper treeline as a pre-requisite for environmental impact assessments. We analyzed model behavior along an altitudinal gradient across the alpine treeline, which provided insights on the sensitivity of simulated average carbon pools to changes in environmental factors. A second set of tests included medium-term (30 years) simulations of carbon fluxes, and a third set of tests focused on daily carbon and water fluxes. Model results were compared to aboveground biomass measurements, leaf area index recordings as well as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and actual evapotranspiration (AET) measurements. The simulated medium-term forest growth agreed well with measured data. Also daily NEE fluxes were simulated adequately in most cases. Problems were detected when simulating ecosystems close to the upper timberline (overestimation of measured growth and pool sizes), and when simulating daily AET fluxes (overestimation of measured fluxes). The results showed that future applications of Biome-BGC could benefit much from an improvement of model algorithms (e.g., the Q₁₀ model for respiration) as well as from a detailed analysis of the ecological significance of crucial parameters (e.g., the canopy water interception coefficient).     

四川马边彝族自治县土地利用/覆被变化分析

采用基于最大似然法的监督分类方法对四川省马边彝族自治县1988年和2001年两期Landsate5 TM影像进行解译,利用单项土地利用动态指数〖WTBX〗（LUDI）、双向土地利用动态指数（Ki）以及土地利用类型转移矩阵（Cx×y）〖WTBZ〗等定量分析方法分析解译结果,得到马边县13年间土地利用/覆被动态及转移特征,并对可能的生态影响进行了分析预测。结果显示：①次生林面积增加,针叶林面积有所下降,灌草地被农田大量取代;②城镇及居民点和次生林的动态最为活跃,转入面积明显高于转出面积;③中山区和亚高山区林地构成发生变化,高山草甸面积有所萎缩,河谷区的阔叶林带被次生林大量取代,低山河谷区的土地破碎化程度增加。研究表明,13年间马边土地利用/覆被变化具有动态高、转换活跃、空间性强以及人为活动干扰影响明显等特点。其中,低山丘陵区的灌草坡大量被农地替代、中山区和亚高山区次生林面积扩大应该作为生态退化的信号加以重视。另外,气候变化对马边森林植被演替可能产生的影响应在今后进行深入的分析研究     

Agricultural adjustment,population dynamics and forests redistribution in a subtropical watershed of NW Argentina

Patterns of land-use and land-cover change are usually grouped into one of two categories defined by the dominant trend: (1) deforestation resulting from expanding agriculture and (2) forest expansion, usually related to the abandonment of marginal lands. At regional scale, however, both processes can occur simultaneously even in the absence of net change. Given the focus on net change, such redistribution of agricultural and natural and seminatural lands has been generally overlooked. The interaction between agriculture modernization, human demography and complex topographic gradients of northwestern Argentina has resulted in processes of both forest recovery and deforestation, thus providing the opportunity to analyze patterns and driving forces of land-cover redistribution. We analyzed 20 years (1986–2006) of land-cover change in a subtropical watershed in relation to topographic and demographic variables. Although net forest change represented <1 %, forests redistribution affected 7 % of forest lands. There was a consistent geographic segregation of deforestation and forest recovery, with forests expanding over steep highlands and agriculture expanding over lowland irrigated areas. Population trends were not associated to forest expansion in lowlands but they explained 32 % of forest recovery in highlands. Highland forest expansion and lowland deforestation, respectively, imply conservation opportunities for humid montane forests and the environmental services they provide (e.g., watershed conservation) and threats for the conservation of dry forests and its biodiversity. Our study exemplifies the importance of land-use redistribution (rather than net change) with relevant environmental consequences at regional scale.     

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline (1961–1990) and low and high emission climate scenarios (2015–2050). Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N₂O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate (1961–1990) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO₂e ha^?1 y^?1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO₂e y^?1. Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.     

Agroforestry environment,potentiality and risk in India: a remote sensing and GIS understanding

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The study utilized the tree covers per cent, agroforestry suitability, present and future (2050) climate, agriculture vulnerability (2050), percentage...     

Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

青海省近20年森林植被碳储量变化及其现状分析

基于林业生态功能和青海省森林资源清查数据,采用森林植被生物量换算因子连续函数法,系统估算与分析青海省森林植被碳储量、碳密度,研究其近20 a碳储量变化并进行现状分析。结果表明：(1)青海省森林碳储量为11 182 64222 t,占同时期全国总碳储量的198%,青海省森林生态系统中面积占较大比重的中龄林,其碳储量尚未达到最大,有较大发展空间;(2)青海省近20 a天然林类型中碳储量较大的前4种分别是：柏木（Cupressus funebris）、桦木（Betula）、杨树（Populus）、云杉（Picea asperata）天然林,表明这几种天然林在青海省森林植被中占有重要的地位,其集中分布对区域生态功能的发挥起主导作用;(3)所采用的碳储量估算方法尚存不足,在以后计算中应考虑根据不同林分类型的含碳量进行计算     

Drastic reduction in the potential habitats for alpine and subalpine vegetation in the Pyrenees due to twenty-first-century climate change

Recent climate change is already affecting both ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them, with mountains and their associated biota being particularly vulnerable. Due to the high conservation value of mountain ecosystems, reliable science-based information is needed to implement additional conservation efforts in order to ensure their future. This paper examines how climate change might impact on the distribution of the main alpine and subalpine vegetation in terms of losses of suitable area in the Oriental Pyrenees. The algorithm of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to relate current environmental conditions (climate, topography, geological properties) to present data for the studied vegetation units, and time and space projections were subsequently carried out considering climate change predictions for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. All models predicted rising altitude trends for all studied vegetation units. Moreover, the analysis of future trends under different climate scenarios for 2080 suggests an average loss in potential ranges of 92.3–99.9 % for alpine grasslands, 76.8–98.4 % for subalpine (and alpine) scrublands and 68.8–96.1 % for subalpine forest. The drastic reduction in the potential distribution areas for alpine grasslands, subalpine scrublands and Pinus uncinata forests highlights the potential severity of the effects of climate change on vegetation in the highest regions of the Pyrenees. Thus, alpine grasslands can be expected to become relegated to refuge areas (summit areas), with their current range being taken over by subalpine scrublands. Furthermore, subalpine forest units will probably become displaced and will occupy areas that currently present subalpine scrub vegetation.     

林产品生物碳通量的动态生命周期评估

将时间因素和生物碳通量纳入林产品生命周期碳足迹评估,通过动态生命周期分析法(Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment,DLCA),确定林产品生产、使用和废弃阶段替代化石能源的净温室气体减排和对森林碳损失的净弥补时间。首先,建立温室气体排放和封存的动态生命周期清单,评估刨花板全生命周期的碳动态和碳足迹;其次,根据ISO 14040和PAS 2050标准提供的静态生命周期分析法分别核算包含与不包含碳储计算的碳足迹,量化时间因素和生物碳通量对于碳足迹结果差异的影响程度;最后,对比自然生长状态的森林碳汇情境,评估刨花板使用和废弃阶段替代化石燃料实现净气候减排所需的时间。研究表明:①时间因素和生物碳通量核算对碳足迹结果影响较大(223.34%),忽视时间因素会低估刨花板的减排贡献(18.98%)。②动态生命周期分析法可准确评估生物碳和温室气体排放的时间问题,但对时间范围非常敏感(75.19%和113.25%)。③生产、使用林产品以及林产品对化石能源的替代是实现长期气候减排的有效方式,在100a的时间范围能够弥补因森林砍伐造成的碳损失,从而实现碳中性。     

Effect of forest fires on the avifauna of the Northern Amur Region

To reveal the effect of forest fires on the avifauna of the Northern Amur Region, bird assemblages of primary dark conifer-deciduous forests, wild rosemary larch forests, and secondary larch-birch forests have been studied in the Komsomol’skii and Norskii nature reserves. It has been shown that the replacement of primary dark conifer-deciduous forests by secondary forests is accompanied by a significant decrease in bird population density, with some species being lost and the composition of the dominant species group being changed. On the other hand, fires lead to increasing patchiness of the environment, which can sometimes provide for an increase in biological diversity.     

Carbon fluxes from coarse woody debris in southern taiga forests of the Valdai Upland

Studies in three typical forest biotopes of the Valdai Upland were performed to evaluate the stocks and surface area of coarse woody debris from spruce and birch (in linear transects), its colonization by xylotrophic fungi (during reconnaissance surveys), and CO₂ emission (by a chamber method). The stock and surface area were minimum in a paludal birch forest (46.4 m³/ha and 960 m²/ha) and maximum in a decay area of spruce forest (256.1 m³/ha and 3761 m²/ha, respectively). The assemblages of wood-decay fungi had a composition typically found in southern taiga forests. The total CO₂ flux varied from 145 kg C-CO₂/ha per year in the paludal birch forest to 462 kg C-CO₂/ha per year in small herb–green moss spruce forest. It is concluded that air temperature is an informative predictor of seasonal C-CO₂ flux rate from coarse woody debris.     

Pulp industry and environment in Indonesia: is there sustainable future?

The global demand for wood is set to increase significantly over the next two decades. The growth is to be particularly pronounced in the Asia Pacific, and timber plantations are expected to be a major source of wood fiber. Indonesia is taking steps to meet the global demand for wood by expanding its pulp production and timber plantations. However, there are concerns about the environmental trade-offs of this expansion. The pulp sector continues to rely on natural forests for timber. The size and productivity of timber plantations are uncertain because of unreliable data. The employment and poverty alleviation potential of the pulp sector are overstated. The pulp sector continues to attract large-scale foreign capital due to high returns on undervalued timber from natural forest. However, environmentally and socially, it is a high-risk investment. The pulp sector in Indonesia can be environmentally sustainable and economically profitable, but the conversion of natural forest must be stopped; the use of non-forest land for plantations must be maximized; and smallholder tree-growing schemes must be made simpler and more attractive. Careful revision of the pulp growth targets and greater investor due diligence are needed to ensure a more sustainable future.     

沱江源森林群落生物多样性垂直格局研究

在野外样带调查的基础上，分析了沱江源头九顶山植被生物多样性随海拔而变化的规律，并简要分析了植被生物多样性垂直格局的影响因子。从河谷到林线，乔木占据群落上层，其郁闭度对林下灌草层群落发育影响很大，生物多样性体现出乔木层与灌草层的相互关系：乔木盖度大的群落其灌木和草本层稀疏，而盖度小的次生林和林线上的高海拔区域灌木和草本种类与个体都迅速增加。多样性指数Hill指数及N1、N2指数变化规律基本相似：林线以下乔木层多样性指数最高，灌木层次之，草本层多样性指数最小，尤其在中度海拔体现明显，海拔3 500 m以上，草本多样性指数最高，灌木次之，而乔木已退出竞争。     

Forests and global change: what can genetics contribute to the major forest management and policy challenges of the twenty-first century?

The conservation and sustainable use of forests in the twenty-first century pose huge challenges for forest management and policy. Society demands that forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services, from timber products, raw materials and renewable energy to sociocultural amenities and habitats for nature conservation. Innovative management and policy approaches need to be developed to meet these often-conflicting demands in a context of environmental change of uncertain magnitude and scale. Genetic diversity is a key component of resilience and adaptability. Overall, forest tree populations are genetically very diverse, conferring them an enormous potential for genetic adaptation via the processes of gene flow and natural selection. Here, we review the main challenges facing our forests in the coming century and focus on how recent progress in genetics can contribute to the development of appropriate practical actions that forest managers and policy makers can adopt to promote forest resilience to climate change. Emerging knowledge will inform and clarify current controversies relating to the choice of appropriate genetic resources for planting, the effect of silvicultural systems and stand tending on adaptive potential and the best ways to harness genetic diversity in breeding and conservation programs. Gaps in our knowledge remain, and we identify where additional information is needed (e.g., the adaptive value of peripheral populations or the genetic determinism of key adaptive traits) and the types of studies that are required to provide this key understanding.