气候变化下汉江上游林地植被生态需水量的时空演变

研究气候变化下林地植被生态需水量的时空变化,对于保护涵养水源的林地植被系统,合理规划管理流域水资源有着重要作用。以汉江上游流域11个气象站点1971~2010年的气象资料为依据,采用结合[1]土壤含水量与植物类型修正蒸散发量得到植被生态需水量的方式,从时空角度定量研究了在生长季4~10月份流域林地植被生态需水量及其趋势性变化,并且分析了生态需水量对各气象因子变化的敏感性程度。结果表明:汉江上游流域林地植被多年平均生长季生态需水量为6.915 8×109 m3,整体上呈现非显著性增加趋势,在空间分布上具有明显的地带性特征。生态需水量对不同气象因子有不同程度的敏感性:最高温度水汽压太阳辐射风速最低温度,生态需水量对各气象因子敏感程度的地带性分布特征还与各区域的纬度、海拔、植被类型和下垫面情况有关。     

Scenarios and story lines: drivers of land use change in southern Mexico

The study presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, environmental policies, socioeconomic drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of drivers of LUCC, and quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are recognized, and detrimental policies and policy options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are acknowledged in a base line, variant and alternative scenario. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation actions were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction in natural forests, while the local socioeconomic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario, these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. The alternative scenario further addresses policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development, but because of the time lag of implementation, still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation, and sustainable management, including strategies for reforming agricultural systems, agricultural and forestry policies and trade, land tenure and livelihood risk management.     

四川马边彝族自治县土地利用/覆被变化分析

采用基于最大似然法的监督分类方法对四川省马边彝族自治县1988年和2001年两期Landsate5 TM影像进行解译,利用单项土地利用动态指数〖WTBX〗（LUDI）、双向土地利用动态指数（Ki）以及土地利用类型转移矩阵（Cx×y）〖WTBZ〗等定量分析方法分析解译结果,得到马边县13年间土地利用/覆被动态及转移特征,并对可能的生态影响进行了分析预测。结果显示：①次生林面积增加,针叶林面积有所下降,灌草地被农田大量取代;②城镇及居民点和次生林的动态最为活跃,转入面积明显高于转出面积;③中山区和亚高山区林地构成发生变化,高山草甸面积有所萎缩,河谷区的阔叶林带被次生林大量取代,低山河谷区的土地破碎化程度增加。研究表明,13年间马边土地利用/覆被变化具有动态高、转换活跃、空间性强以及人为活动干扰影响明显等特点。其中,低山丘陵区的灌草坡大量被农地替代、中山区和亚高山区次生林面积扩大应该作为生态退化的信号加以重视。另外,气候变化对马边森林植被演替可能产生的影响应在今后进行深入的分析研究     

基于CLUE-S模型的重庆市渝北区土地利用变化动态模拟

以重庆市渝北区为研究区域,运用CLUE-S模型,结合Logistic回归分析,分别以2007年和2009年为基期,对渝北区2013年土地利用情况进行模拟研究,在此基础上构建了渝北区2013~2020年3种不同情景的土地利用变化模式,模拟了3种情景模式下渝北区在2020年的土地利用空间分布格局。结果表明:(1)两期模拟的正确率分别达到了92.26%和94%,Kappa系数值分别为90.32%和92.5%,均取得了较好的模拟效果,说明CLUE-S模型适用于渝北区的土地利用空间格局变化的模拟研究,具有较好的模拟区域土地利用时空变化的能力;(2)地形、国道、省道、高速公路等主要道路、河流、城镇和村庄是影响渝北区土地利用空间格局变化的重要驱动因素;(3)在3种情景模式中,主要的用地格局变化均发生在两江新区,区内建设用地总体呈现向东北部扩张的趋势,表明区域经济社会发展政策对用地类型的变化具有较大的影响;(4)从促进城乡统筹和谐发展、土地节约集约利用、生态环境显著改善和保护耕地的区域发展目标而言,情景模式2为较为合理的发展模式。研究结果可为决策部门在土地可持续利用和土地管理方面提供参考依据。     

Quantifying disturbance effects on vegetation carbon pools in mountain forests based on historical data

Although the terrestrial carbon budget is of key importance for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, little is known on the effects of management and natural disturbances on historical carbon stocks at the regional scale. We reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation carbon stocks and flows in forests across the past 100 years for a valley in the eastern Swiss Prealps using quantitative and qualitative information from forest management plans. The excellent quality of the historical information makes it possible to link dynamics in growing stocks with high-resolution time series for natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The results of the historical reconstruction are compared with modelled potential natural vegetation. Forest carbon stock at the beginning of the twentieth century was substantially reduced compared to natural conditions as a result of large scale clearcutting lasting until the late nineteenth century. Recovery of the forests from this unsustainable exploitation and systematic forest management were the main drivers of a strong carbon accumulation during almost the entire twentieth century. In the 1990s two major storm events and subsequent bark beetle infestations significantly reduced stocks back to the levels of the mid-twentieth century. The future potential for further carbon accumulation was found to be strongly limited, as the potential for further forest expansion in this valley is low and forest properties seem to approach equilibrium with the natural disturbance regime. We conclude that consistent long-term observations of carbon stocks and their changes provide rich information on the historical range of variability of forest ecosystems. Such historical information improves our ability to assess future changes in carbon stocks. Further, the information is vital for better parameterization and initialization of dynamic regional scale vegetation models and it provides important background for appropriate management decisions.     

Sensitivity of Portuguese forest fires to climatic, human, and landscape variables: subnational differences between fire drivers in extreme fire years and decadal averages

Within the changing fire regimes of Portugal, the relative importance of humans and climatic variability for regional fire statistics remains poorly understood. This work investigates the statistical relationship between temporal dynamics of fire events in Portugal and a set of socioeconomic, landscape, and climatic variables for the time periods of 1980–1990, 1991–2000, and extreme fires years. For 10 of 15 districts, it was possible to observe moderate shifts in the significance of fire drivers for the first two decadal periods. For others, pronounced changes of the significance of fire drivers were found across time. Results point toward a dynamic (perhaps highly non-linear) behavior of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers, especially during the occurrence of extreme fire years of 2003 and 2005. At country level, population density alone explained 42% of the inter-annual and inter-district deviance in number of fires. At the same temporal and spatial scale, the explanatory power of temperature anomalies proved to explain 43% of area burnt. We highlight the necessity of including a broad set of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers in order to account for potential significance shifts. In addition, although climate does trigger broad favorable fire conditions across Portugal mainland, socioeconomic and landscape factors proved to determine much of the complex fire patterns at a subnational scale.     

Models of taiga-steppe communities on the western coast of Lake Baikal

As a result of monitoring spatial changes in the cenotic structure of plant communities at the taiga-extrazonal steppe boundary on the western coast of Lake Baikal, models of taiga-steppe communities reflecting the formation, dynamics, and genesis of forests in the taiga zone have been constructed. Changes in the species composition of communities, mesophytization of steppes, the expansion of moss synusiae characteristic of polydominant dark conifer and light conifer taiga forests, active forest invasion into steppe areas, and the presence of dark conifer tree species in light conifer forests have been revealed.     

基于CLUE-S模型的千岛湖镇土地利用动态模拟分析

基于1993、2004年两期土地利用数据和1〖DK〗∶250000DEM，运用GIS技术，通过Logistic逐步回归分析，在地形、高程、水系、道路交通、城镇和居民点等多种自然和社会经济因素中，筛选出不同时期对千岛湖镇主要土地利用类型空间分布及其变化具有决定作用的驱动因子，并对所得结果进行ROC检验，同时生成相应的土地利用空间分布概率适宜图，然后采用CLUE-S模型，对其2004年的土地利用变化格局进行模拟；并用2004年的土地利用现状图对模拟结果进行检验，结果显示，在基本单元（90 m×90 m栅格）的水平上，模拟的正确率为8471%，Kappa值达到了0825。在此基础上，针对两种政策情景，应用相同模型模拟预测了千岛湖镇2015年的土地利用时空变化。与2004年相比较，变化明显的是城镇工矿用地的扩张和林地的减少，并且城镇工矿用地的扩张多是在原有城镇及工矿用地的基础上向四周扩展，侵占的多是周边的耕地、林地、未利用地。     

Dynamics of snowmelt water composition in conifer forests exposed to airborne industrial pollution

An analysis is made of the spatial variability of snowmelt water composition (within and between biogeocenoses), with regard to its long-term dynamics, in pine and spruce forests exposed to airborne industrial pollution from the Europe’s largest Severonikel Copper–Nickel Smelter Complex. Snowmelt waters from under the tree canopy, compared to those from intercrown areas, contain higher concentrations of chemical elements due to their washing and leaching from tree crowns. This is especially true of spruce forests, since the crowns of spruce trees have a high sorption capacity. Distinct trends in the long-term dynamics of snowmelt water composition, related to reduction of industrial emissions, are observed in background forest areas and defoliating forests but not in the vicinity of pollution sources. It is shown that the main factors determining these dynamics in forests of the Kola Peninsula are edificator tree species, airborne industrial pollution, and, possibly, an increase in the number of days with above-zero temperatures in the period of snow accumulation, which facilitates washing and leaching of chemical compounds from tree crowns.     

水库型旅游地生态安全时空分异及其关键影响因子分析 ——以溧阳市天目湖为例

根据系统论、环境价值论和人地关系理论构建水库型旅游地生态安全“压力-状态-响应”评价模型，运用模糊集对分析法定量分析2005年和2015年溧阳市天目湖的生态安全水平及其时空分异特征，并通过信息熵权探寻生态安全变化的关键影响因子。结果表明：在空间尺度上，沙河水库下游的旅游优先开发区生态安全状况较差，大溪水库周边区域生态安全状况较好。在时间尺度上，所有区域的生态安全等级都有所提升，旅游优先开发区的生态安全等级出现较大正向波动。研究表明，旅游业发展因子、人口因子和引起环境变化政策响应因子是决定天目湖生态安全的关键性因子。通过对政策、产业和人口之间的政府力、市场力和社会力对生态环境尤其是水库的作用过程分析发现，人类的环境再生产活动能够降低生态压力、提升生态响应，从而改善水库型旅游区的生态安全。 关键词： 水库型旅游地；生态安全；时空分异；影响因子；天目湖     

The influence of socioeconomic, environmental, and demographic factors on municipality-scale land-cover change in Mexico

Land-cover change is the result of complex multi-scale interactions between socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors. Demographic change, in particular, is thought to be a major driver of forest change. Most studies have evaluated these interactions at the regional or the national level, but few studies have evaluated these dynamics across multiple spatial scales within a country. In this study, we evaluated the effect of demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables on land-cover change between 2001 and 2010 for all Mexican municipalities (n?=?2,443) as well as by biome (n?=?4). We used a land-cover classification based on 250-m MODIS data to examine the change in cover classes (i.e., woody, mixed woody, and agriculture/herbaceous vegetation). We evaluated the trends of land-cover change and identified the major factors correlated with woody vegetation change in Mexico. At the national scale, the variation in woody vegetation was best explained by environmental variables, particularly precipitation; municipalities where woody cover increased tended to be in areas with low average annual precipitation (i.e., desert and dry forest biomes). Demographic variables did not contribute much to the model at the national scale. Elevation, temperature, and population density explained the change in woody cover when municipalities were grouped by biome (i.e., moist forest, dry forest, coniferous forest, and deserts). Land-cover change at the biome level showed two main trends: (1) the tropical moist biome lost woody vegetation to agriculture and herbaceous vegetation, and (2) the desert biome increased in woody vegetation within more open-canopy shrublands.     

Forest plantations, water availability, and regional climate change: controversies surrounding Acacia mearnsii plantations in the upper Palnis Hills, southern India

Plantation forests not only impact carbon and water cycles, but also affect biodiversity, livelihoods, and shape regional economies. Each of these impacts differs across varying scales of analysis. This paper illustrates how forest, climate change and hydrology debates play out in the context of the forest plantations of Australian black wattle (Acacia mearnsii) in the upper Palni hills of southern India. We outline the contradictory perspectives of different local groups regarding the impact of plantations on catchment hydrology and water availability, and examine these in relation to changes in the regional economy and rainfall patterns. Our analysis indicates that changes in these two factors have played a more significant role than existing wattle plantations in affecting local and regional water availability. We suggest that ongoing debates regarding forest plantation–hydrology–climate change relationships need to broaden their scope to include changes in regional rainfall patterns and shifts in regional economic activity. This approach is likely to provide a more realistic assessment of plantation forests in a dynamic regional context, and offer more resilient strategies for regional landscape and catchment management under conditions of high variability in rainfall patterns.     

Fine-grain spatial patterning and dynamics of land use and agrobiodiversity amid global changes in the Bolivian Andes

Our research addresses the gap in scientific research on the fine-grain spatial patterns and social–ecological interactions of land use and agrobiodiversity. The spatial dimension of agrobiodiversity dynamics potentially strengthens the social–ecological resilience and food security of smallholders by buffering risk and vulnerability. Our research integrates the scientific theories, concepts, and methods of spatial externalities, social–ecological interactions, geospatial land and global change sciences, and political ecology. We designed a case study of the Arbieto-Tarata landscape in the Bolivian Andes that comprises a globally significant agrobiodiversity hot spot of Andean maize. The Arbieto-Tarata landscape, which contains nearly 8000 fields at 2500–2800 masl, is representative of mixed-use smallholder agri-food systems amid global changes. Our research predicts spatial spillover and edge effects of combined social and environmental factors leading to the clustering of same-crop fields. Findings reveal significant levels of the predicted clustering between 2006 and 2012. The degree of this clustering is found to differ among geographic and environmental sub-areas reflecting fine-grain variation of local causal linkages. Extra-local causal linkages include high levels of migration, water resource shortages, and urbanization. Results show the influences of informal and formal coordination in the spatial clustering of same-crop fields. This field-level coordination improves the efficiency of resource allocations and lowers costs of production. It enables the viability of high-agrobiodiversity Andean maize in smallholder land use and agri-food systems amid global changes. The article discusses the broader policy and scientific implications of these findings including scaling up and support of the social–ecological resilience of agrobiodiversity globally.     

Land cover changes in the Lachuá region,Guatemala: patterns,proximate causes,and underlying driving forces over the last 50 years

Identifying the patterns of land cover change (LCC) and their main proximate causes and underlying driving forces in tropical rainforests is an urgent task for designing adequate management and conservation policies. The Lachuá region maintains the largest lowland rainforest remnant in Guatemala, but it has been highly deforested and fragmented during the last decades. This is the first paper to describe the patterns of LCC and the associated political and socioeconomic factors in the region over the last 50 years. We estimated spatial and temporal variations in LCC from a random sample of 24 1-km² landscape plots during three time periods (1962–1987, 1987–2006, and 2006–2011) and evaluated how they were related to some important proximate causes and underlying driving forces. During the study period, 55 % of forest cover disappeared, at an annual rate of 1.6 %. The deforestation rate increased from 0.6 % (during the first study period) to 2.8 % (last period), but there was very high spatial variation. Landscape plots located outside conservation areas and close to roads lost between 80 and 100 % of forest cover, whereas the forest cover in landscapes located within protected areas remained intact during the study period. The establishment of new human settlements, roads, and annual crops was the main proximate cause during the first period, but during the second and third periods, open areas were mainly created to establish cattle pastures. Because ~75 % of forest cover has disappeared outside the protected areas, the conservation of this biodiversity hot spot will depend on the expansion of protected areas, and the promotion of forest regrowth and alternative biodiversity-friendly land uses in the landscape matrix.     

森林生态补偿机制若干重点问题研究

我国森林资源有限．并且大多分布在经济欠发达地区。然而森林生态效益的受益者主要是江河中下游地区,一般属于经济较发达地区。因而如何给森林生态效益提供者实施补偿．实现生态公平。建立森林生态补偿机制显得十分必要,这也是当前国内外研究的热点问题之一。结合我国的实际情况．在研究提出我国生态补偿政策总体框架和分析评价国内外森杯生态补偿研究与实践进展的基础上．对森林生态补偿机制的若干重点问题进行操讨：界定了森林生态补偿的内涵与范畴;对补偿森林类型进行分类．主要分为防护林、特种用途林两类;对森林生态补偿标准进行估算．考虑营造林的直接投入、保护森林生态功能而放弃经济发展的机会成本和森林生态系统服务功能的效益三个方面的因素;培育森林生态补偿市场化途径,加强对私人企业的激励机制．建立基金寻求国外非政府组织捐赠机构支持等办法;开征森林生态税,对征收对象、征收范围、征收依据和税率等进行研究;最后提出森林生态补偿的“三步走”战略。包括补偿基金完善阶段。补偿基金与生态税双轨并行阶段。生态税独立运行阶段。     

金沙江干热河谷几种引进树种人工植被的生态学研究

采用标准木法和收获法,对金沙江元谋干热河谷几种引进树种的人工植被（即赤桉×新银合欢混交林、赤桉纯林、新银合欢纯林和印楝纯林）各层植被生物量与天然次生植被（坡柳-扭黄茅灌草丛）进行了比较研究,同时对各类植被的物种组成和物种多样性进行了比较分析。结果表明：（1）采用引进树种人工恢复的植被积累了大量生物质,总生物量大小依次为：赤桉×新银合欢混交林（4491 t/hm2）>新银合欢纯林（3991 t/hm2）>赤桉纯林（3857 t/ hm2）>印楝纯林（1306 t/hm2）>天然次生林（935 t/ hm2）。人工恢复植被生物量主要集中在乔木层,天然次生植被生物量主要集中在灌木、草本和凋落物层。（2）人工恢复植被的物种数均少于天然次生植被,而且不同植被的物种数和物种组成也存在差异。（3）各植被的Shannon wiener多样性指数和Margalef丰富度指数均表现为：印楝纯林>坡柳-扭黄茅灌草丛>赤桉纯林>赤桉×新银合欢混交林。在Alatato均匀度指数方面,各人工植被之间的差异不大,但人工植被与天然次生植被之间有显著差异。〖     

Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds

China is a key vulnerable region of climate change in the world. Climate warming and general increase in precipitation with strong temporal and spatial variations have happened in China during the past century. Such changes in climate associated with the human disturbances have influenced natural ecosystems of China, leading to the advanced plant phenology in spring, lengthened growing season of vegetation, modified composition and geographical pattern of vegetation, especially in ecotone and tree-lines, and the increases in vegetation cover, vegetation activity and net primary productivity. Increases in temperature, changes in precipitation regime and CO₂ concentration enrichment will happen in the future in China according to climate model simulations. The projected climate scenarios (associated with land use changes again) will significantly influence Chinese ecosystems, resulting in a northward shift of all forests, disappearance of boreal forest from northeastern China, new tropical forests and woodlands move into the tropics, an eastward shift of grasslands (expansion) and deserts (shrinkage), a reduction in alpine vegetation and an increase in net primary productivity of most vegetation types. Ecosystems in northern and western parts of China are more vulnerable to climate changes than those in eastern China, while ecosystems in the east are more vulnerable to land use changes other than climate changes. Such assessment could be helpful to address the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC Article 2).     

Differences in plant species diversity between conifer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus tabulaeformis</Emphasis>) plantations and natural forests in middle of the Loess plateau

We compared differences in plant species diversity between conifer (Pinus tabulaeformis) plantations and natural secondary forests in the middle of the Loess plateau. The goal of the study was to examine the differences in the effect of stand development on species diversity and in species responses to changes between forest types and between forest layers. To clarify the effects of differences in forest management, we emphasized the functional types of plant species occurring in each forest type. The result as follow: (1) The H′ and S of tree layer were significantly lower in natural conifer forest than old conifer and secondary forest, but were not different compared with mid aged conifer forest. The H′ and S of shrub layer were significantly lower in mid aged conifer forest compared with other forest types. The H′ of herb layer showed no significant differences in the four forest types. The evenness index (J′) of tree layer of mid aged conifer forest was lower than other forest communities and its J′ of shrub layer was highest although its richness of shrub layer was lower than in the other forest types. (2) The analysis of β diversity index also indicated large differences between conifer plantations and natural forests. Although the tree layer species were similar in old plantation and natural conifer forests, they differed greatly between the natural conifer and secondary forests. The natural conifer and secondary forest species composition in shrub layer differed significantly from those in plantation and secondary plots. Tree species were significantly less common in plantations than in abandoned coppice forests. Species composition in the herb layer of different forest types was similar. (3) The management of P. tabulaeformis plantations alters plant species composition considerably; the number of sub tall-tree species is increased in old aged conifer forest, especially species dispersed by animals. Plantation management appears to affect ecological processes through seed dispersal. From the perspective of management, the change in the structure and composition of the canopy in plantations could affect the behavior of dispersers and regeneration.     

Global-scale quantitative assessment for biodiversity on forest land use: applying the Global No Net Loss approach

Here we propose a method to quantitatively assess and examine Global No Net Loss (GNNL) of forest biodiversity on a global scale. The method produces a GNNL index of existing forest and enables future predictions of forest loss under different assumptions. The method tests the feasibility of the GNNL index and enables discussion of policy for future global scale sustainable forest management up to 2050. The GNNL index was estimated from an equation including forest areas per country per forest type (primary forest, secondary forest and plantation forest), diversity of forest ecosystem, and species density. Estimates derived from historical data revealed an approximate 7% reduction in GNNL index between 1990 and 2005. Predictions of the GNNL index until 2050 emphasize the importance of regenerating large portions of forests felled for agricultural land (or other uses) with secondary forests.     

Forest sustainability and development in hills of Uttarakhand,India: Can they move together?

Forest cover is viewed as a resource for the nation as it provides ecosystem services. However, it becomes a burden and retards development for the people of the area, particularly the hills, where such forests flourish. Enactment of stringent laws over the past few decades has strictly prohibited tree felling in these areas, and it has become a deterrent in their growth process. While on one hand, the plains are abuzz with economic activity, on the other hand, the sparse population of the hills is compelled to bear the responsibility of maintaining ecological balance. In this context, the issue of development along with forest sustainability becomes important. Using the case study of the hills of Uttarakhand, India, the paper attempts to highlight the problems and the possible strategies that may be adopted to facilitate inclusive socioeconomic development of forest dwellers while ensuring conservation and enhancement of forest cover.