A “measurable” definition of sustainable development based on closed cycles of resources and its application to energy systems

Human society consumes resources that it is not able to reproduce. Human activities are still based on “open cycles,” starting from a condition of natural environmental balance and reaching an environmental imbalance. The challenging scope of scientific and technological research towards sustainability appears clear if it is based on this analysis: to find development systems based on “closed cycles” of resources. The challenging objective of realizing closed cycles leads to a definition of sustainability that indicates the path to sustainable development, as well as stating the general principle. It also provides a key to the qualitative measurement of sustainability. This means that the sustainability level of a system can be measured by measuring its capacity to avoid the consumption of resources. Zero consumption is a necessary condition for sustainability, and brings about as a side effect the highly desired “zero-waste” result. Materials entering the proposed endless scheme pass through the process of usefulness without losing their capacity to feed the system again after being used. Thus, the concept of “consumption” itself is replaced by one of “use” when resources are inserted into closed loops capable of feeding human development. The application of the closed cycle sustainability criterion particularly displays its feasibility, and a theoretical guiding role, in the energy sector. Energy vectors such as hydrogen and electricity enable the closure of the energy resources loop by effectively approaching the objective of “zero consumption” (and the side result of “zero waste”) through already demonstrated technological solutions.     

Design considerations for environmental sustainability in high density development: a case study of Hong Kong

This study has indicated that there is close relationship between development density and environmental quality; therefore, it is necessary to decide the form of development carefully beforehand. The form of development is shaped either by new development or urban renewal which is a major tactic nowadays adopted by the Hong Kong Government to improve the living condition of the citizens and the quality of the built environment. This study is limited to urban renewal and aims to find out the major urban design considerations for sustaining the environment. Through a questionnaire survey carried out in Hong Kong, the opinions of architects, planners, property development managers, and local citizens were sought and evaluated, and critical design factors for enhancing environmental sustainability of urban renewal projects are highlighted. The results derived from factor analysis indicated that certain design considerations should be incorporated for sustaining the urban environment. “Land Use Planning”, “Quality of Life”, “Conservation & Preservation”, “Integrated Design”, “Provision of Welfare Facilities”, and “Conservation of Existing Properties” were believed to be the significant underlying factors for achieving environmental sustainability of local urban renewal projects. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Biocultural diversity in traditional rice-based agroecosystems: indigenous research and conservation of mavo (Oryza sativa L.) upland rice landraces of eastern Indonesia

Traditional crop landraces play dynamic roles in the expression of native biological and cultural diversity via their central position in the genetic resource base, agroecosystems and social heritage of indigenous peoples. Farmer varieties provide farmers with an “agricultural survival kit” for household welfare and for adaptation to changing conditions. These varieties meet local cultural practices and environmental constraints, and play an intrinsic role in cultural survival by constituting a living repository of ancestral customs including cultivar-specific recipes, songs, handicrafts, stories of origin, and unique planting, harvesting, processing, and storage rituals and techniques. The centrality of rice in Southeast Asian agricultural and social systems, contrasted with the significant erosion of rice-based biological and cultural diversity in native communities, calls for increased attention to the links between traditional rice varieties and indigenous rice-based customs. This study represents the research efforts of rice farmers pertaining to the Tado clan, a Kempo Manggarai community on Flores␣Island, in association with USA academicians. Research results demonstrate: (i) a complex suite of upland rice-based ethnobotanical traditions; (ii) significant and␣dynamic regional flux and dissemination of “old” and “new” landraces; (iii)␣community-level maintenance of distinct genotypes across a range of microenvironments; (iv) localized “extinctions” of ancestral landraces within 1–2 generations and a concomitant loss of related traditions; and (v) the contributions of a collaborative (indigenous and academic) approach to ethnographic and agronomic research.     

Defining climate-change victims

This article introduces the concept of “climate-change victims” and classifies categories of threats and groups of people who would be vulnerable to and victimized by human-induced climate change. (The full, correct wording is “human-induced climate-change victims”, but we will use just “climate-change victims” in the rest of the article.) It offers a definition with three levels of climate-change victimization and differentiates “climate-change victims” from “natural-disasters victims” and from “climate-change migrants”. The article sets an agenda for a new type of victimhood and could lead to further research on possible prevention, accountability measures, environmental tribunals, and compensation mechanisms to recompense climate-change victims.     

A New Conceptual Framework for Sustainable Development

A critical review of the multidisciplinary literature on sustainable development reveals a lack of a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding sustainable development and its complexities. A critical review shows that the definitions of sustainable development are vague; there is a lack of operative definitions and disagreement over what should be sustained; the concept is unclear in terms of emotional commitment; and it “remains a confused topic”, “fraught with contradictions”. This article aims to theoretically synthesize the interdisciplinary literature on sustainable development, and then identify the results by broad categories. Therefore, this article uses conceptual analysis, which reviews multidisciplinary literature on sustainable development, which recognizes patterns and similarities within the literature, then it synthesizes the patterns to different categories and independent concepts, where each concept has distinctive meanings and represents close ideas on sustainability. The analytical process elaborates seven concepts that together assemble the theoretical framework of ‘sustainable development’ and each concept represents distinctive meanings of the theoretical framework.     

Social cost of environmental pollution and application of counter measures through clean development mechanism: in the context of developing countries

The developing countries i.e., the non-Annex-I countries (parties to the Kyoto Protocol but not responsible to any reduction target yet) in the Kyoto Protocol whose economies are in transition are also allowed to reduce GHG emissions. Among these, the countries that have accepted the Kyoto Protocol may be benefited from CDM projects to promote sustainable development. The developed countries i.e., the Annex-I countries (that have signed the Kyoto Protocol & are responsible to have specific GHG emission reduction target) or the investing countries, in return, have privilege to purchase CER credits (in units equivalent to one tonne of CO₂ gas emission reduction) to meet the emission target as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. The key step in understanding about CDM is to grasp the concept of “baseline” and “additionality”. The “Baseline” is the emissions level that would have existed if a CDM project had not happened. The feature of an approved CDM project is that the planned reductions would not occur without the additional incentive provided by emission reduction credits; this concept is known as “Additionality”. According to environmental additionality concept, baseline emission minus project emission is equal to emissions reduction. “Investment Additionality,” ultimately rejected during negotiation of the “Marrakech Accords” and “Financial Additionality,” are the two important concepts. The concept of trading of CER matches to the idea of Pigovian tax (equal to the negative externality and which is considered one of the “traditional” means of bringing a modicum of market forces) in Economics, making pollution more costly to the polluter, as the polluters have negative cost since they save money by polluting; hence, there are supposed negative externalities associated with the market activity. Economic theory predicts that in an economy where the cost of reaching mutual agreement between parties is high and where pollution is diffuse, Pigovian tax will be an efficient way to promote the public interest and will lead to an improvement of the quality of life measured by the Genuine Progress Indicator and other human economic indicators, as well as higher gross domestic product growth. We can seek a level of pollution such that the marginal savings (MS) to one polluting unit from pollution (−MC) is equal to marginal damage (MD) from pollution over the entire population, since pollution is a public bad i.e., MS (x*) = ∑MD_i (x*) where ∑D_i (x) is the total damage. Though the responsibility of reduction in emission does not lie on the non-Annex-I countries, still effort of maintaining global emission balance can be expected equally from developed and developing countries. The responsibilities of Kyoto Protocol are (a) to reduce global GHG emissions, (b) to bring about sustainable development in the developing countries lie on above two groups since its effect on February 16, 2005. Different polluters have different costs of pollution control. The least costly way of controlling pollution from various sources that reflects different costs of pollution control making the set of environmental regulations to achieve the emission target at the lowest cost makes the regulation cost-effective. Though efficiency is not attainable for many regulations, cost-effectiveness is attainable.     

An integrated analysis of production costs and net energy balance of biofuels

Up to now, the “low” price of oil has prevented the development of alternative fuels but with the current high price and increasing scarcity, biofuels could become an economically attractive alternative. However, the economic assessment of biofuels has to take into account total production costs, including impact on agriculture, and the energy balance of first generation alternative fuels (biodiesel and bioethanol). Moreover, plans to produce biofuels from agriculture should not be achieved without considering the latest developments and reforms of the common agricultural policy, which promotes a change towards sustainable rural development based on multifunctional agriculture. From the analysis carried out, it emerges that first generation biofuels do not seem to be the best solution because of high production cost, limited land availability and low net energy balance. Furthermore, only a small quantity of biofuels can be produced as alternative to fossil oil because an incremental production will lead to the rising of agri-food prices. Only second generation biofuels could be a possible solution, although they still require much supplementary research and analysis.     

Accounting for carbon stocks in models of land-use change: an application to Southern Yucatan

To assess the impact of land-use change on carbon stocks, we apply a new methodology, linking ecological and economic modeling, to southern Yucatan, Mexico. A spatial econometric multinomial logit model of ten land-cover classes is estimated (four primary forest categories, three secondary growth categories, an invasive species, and two agricultural land-cover categories), using satellite data on land cover, linked with census socioeconomic data and other biophysical spatial data from 2000. The analysis is novel in that it is the first attempt to link detailed satellite data on land use, with on-the-ground estimates of carbon stocks in a spatial econometric model of land use. The estimated multinomial logit model is then used with two scenarios of future economic growth (“low growth” and “high growth” changes in population, agricultural land use, market access, and education levels) in the region to predict land-cover changes resulting from the economic growth. The per hectare carbon (C) stocks in each land-cover class are derived from previously published estimates of biomass from field sampling across the study region. We consider aboveground-only, aboveground plus soil, transient and non-transient pools of carbon. These estimates are scaled up to the total area in each class according to the predictions of the model baseline and the two development scenarios. Subsequently, the changes in carbon stocks resulting from the predicted land-cover changes are calculated. Under the low growth scenario, carbon stocks declined by 5%; under the high growth scenario, losses were 12%. Including soil C, the proportional losses were lower, but the absolute amount lost was more than double (to 6 Tg C under the low and almost 15 Tg C under the high-growth scenario). This methodology could be further developed for applications in global change policy, such as payments for environmental services (PES) or reduction in emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).     

Agricultural productivity and environmental insecurity in the Usangu plain, Tanzania: policy implications for sustainability of agriculture

Sustainable agricultural development is a necessity for sustainable economic growth and social development in Africa. Sustainable agriculture largely depends on how effective natural and environmental resources are managed and utilized; it also depends on the security of continuous access to such resources. This research was aimed to look into trends in agricultural productivity, examine the persistence of the environmental insecurity, analyze the relationship between the two, and explore their links to the national development policies. The results are discussed in the context of relevance to national development policies and their implications on the sustainability of agriculture and rural livelihoods security. Literature survey, records collection from the stakeholders, village level participatory assessments (PAs), observations and questionnaire survey were tools used for data collection. The study shows significant (P < 0.01) declines in cereal crop yields, cattle milk yield and cattle calving rate, and increasing cattle mortality rate. Elements of environmental insecurity were found to account for decline in agricultural productivity; significant (P < 0.01) proportion (68%), of 266 households interviewed, reported land resources deterioration, declining soil fertility, and increasing drought frequencies as the causes of their low productivity. Declined fertilizer consumption and increasing variability in rainfall amount significantly (P < 0.01) accounted for 59% and 39%, respectively, of the variations observed in total annual production of rice and maize, which are major cereals in the study area. This study recommends measures to improve soil productivity such as improved fertilizer application and use of organic manures along with mineral fertilizers for maintaining soil productivity; education of farmers on sustainable use and management of land resources; and pro-poor rural policies in agricultural development and environmental governance. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Rural settlement expansion and paddy soil loss across an ex-urbanizing watershed in eastern coastal China during market transition

Historically, paddy soils are the most valuable natural resources that produce about 90% of staple food in eastern coastal China. Dispersed patterns of rapid rural settlement expansion, or “exurban”, are recognized as key threats to the region’s food security through paddy soil loss. Analyzing the process of ex-urbanization and its impact has profound implications for the sustainable development of rural China. Based on official statistics and data derived from satellite images, dynamics of rural settlement expansion and paddy soil loss were outlined for Tiaoxi watershed during China’s market transition period (1994–2003). Particularly, rural settlements became more aggregated and total area expanded by 183% at an average rate of 12.3% per year for the whole watershed. Existing cores, open areas away from urban centers and areas near major transportation lines and river channels, observed the highest specialization in rural residential growth. Being closely associated with rural settlement in spatial distribution, open large paddy soil patches acted as another kind of center for rural settlement expansion within the landscape. Variations in rural settlement expansion were detected among different-tier counties, such as speed of rural settlement expansion, speed of build-ups growth per capita. These variations were closely related to social-economic development. The rapid rural settlement expansion led to a considerable loss of paddy soil, about 11% of the total amount for the whole watershed. Linear regression identified a significant relationship between paddy soil loss and rural settlement expansion. Given the social and ecological problems associated with paddy soil loss, we argue that innovative and effective planning policies as well as management programs that target at paddy soil protection should be developed and implemented in rural China. In particular, we suggest using watershed as an appropriate spatial unit for sustainable paddy soil management in this investigation.     

Scenarios of the old industrial regions’ development: selecting the methodology

Management of the old industrial regions’ development is a very actual problem, in particular for the post-Soviet countries. It is connected with the fact that the purposes of manufacture modernization which provide employment and incomes of the population of such regions, can contradict requirements of environmental protection. Here the most different scenarios of development are possible which need to be evaluated. Usual neoclassical criteria for this purpose do not match. Therefore, in our paper, there was a task to develop such criterion which can be used for regulation of the old industrial regions’ development taking into account the environmental factor. The paper begins with construction of regional economy model. Our model based on the J. Forrester's “world model” idea, i.e. it considers the influence of environmental pollution (atmosphere, water, earth) on the population disease level, and then—on the lifetime and the human capital; the latter ones are considered as one of the most important factors of the economic growth. On the ground of this model, the consequences for realization of different scenarios of the regional economy development are estimated. To substantiate the regulation of regional economy, the criterion of sustainable development, based on the idea of simultaneous improvement of economic and ecological parameters, is offered. The main feature of the criterion offered is that, first of all, it guarantees simultaneous improvement of each of the chosen indicators of the region’s development, and, second, allows considering interests of various coalition groups by finding realistic compromises at a choice of ways of old industrial regions’ development.     

Development paths of drylands: thresholds and sustainability

Drylands (41 and 35% of global land and population, respectively) have the lowest biological productivity of any ecosystem, contain populations with the highest growth rates on earth, and share a significant fraction of global poverty for which desertification is implicated. A global assessment of the available information indicates that the inherent low productivity of drylands, when combined with other adverse factors, can generate poverty. It additionally indicates that while the drylands may exist in a locally stable and sustainable state, this is readily destabilized by non-linear, threshold-crossing transitions to an alternative steady-state leading to desertification, poverty and conflicts. The “desertification paradigm” (human and climatological pressures driving overexploitation of land resources, leading to desertification, poverty and reduced security) is challenged by its “counter-paradigm” (adversity elicits innovation, leading to ingenuous solutions for avoiding desertification). But the latter does not account for the inevitability of continued and increasing pressure on the finite dryland resources, expected to be further exacerbated by a globally increasing need for agricultural land. A companion paper points out that this situation can be avoided by reducing dependence on land productivity, through adoption of “alternative livelihoods.” These livelihoods, while economically advantageous, reduce pressure on land resources.     

Developing and applying a soil erosion model in a data-poor context to an island in the rural Philippines

Soil erosion in many parts of the developing world poses a threat to rural livelihoods, to the sustainbility of the agricultural sector, and to the environment. Most erosion prediction models are mechanistic and unsuited to quantify the severity of soil erosion in a data-limited developing world context. The model developed in this paper for Negros Island, in the central Philippines, is based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, but contains important innovations such as the movement of eroded soil over the landscape, simulating deposition on lower slopes and in waterways. It also includes a term describing farmer strategies to reduce soil erosion, which are typically ignored in erosion prediction models. A two-sample t-test found that model-predicted sediment loading values were not significantly different from field-measured sediment loading values when corrected for watershed size (P = 0.857). The model predicts an annual loss of 2.7 million cubic meters of sediment to waterways such that by 2050 more than 416,000 ha of agricultural land will be rendered unproductive due to erosion. Farmer behavior conserves soil, but on the steepest slopes soil conservation practices are not adequate to prevent erosion. Of two proposed strategies to control soil erosion in the rural Philippines, the model suggests that a complete switch to tree crops would conserve more soil than universal terrace adoption. However, even under these conservation scenarios, erosion threatens the areal extent of upland agriculture on Negros, and hence the sustainability of the island’s food supply.

Industrial ecology: engineered representation of sustainability

Industrial ecology is a relatively new field of research and academic study and is well established in North America and in several Asian countries. However, it has not yet received the attention it deserves in some other important parts of the industrialized world, including Germany. This paper may contribute to a better appreciation of industrial ecology as a tool in the process of sustainable development of economies, social systems, and of aquatic and terrestrial biotopes under the pressure of rapidly changing conditions triggered by global warming and urban growth. For this reason, methods are needed to quantify the successful application of industrial ecology measures. The “Integrated Sustainability Triangle” is introduced as a promising new possibility of quantification and monitoring. It enables justification of the contributions industrial ecology can make to sustainable development. The aggregation of individual economic contributions is assumed to create an overall impetus to the entire industrial sector including the sector of environmental engineering. Thus, the potential of industrial ecology is discussed from the macro-economic and the engineering perspective using the concept of sustainable development as a guiding principle. But the authors come to the conclusion that finding solutions to the pressing problems of our time requires more than collaboration of economy and engineering. It requires joint efforts of the whole spectrum of scientific disciplines in close collaboration with industrial and political stakeholders.     

A normative model of balanced nature management

The risk of erroneous regulation in multilevel normative environmental chains, at the federal, regional, and lower levels, down to the corporate one, has been studied. This risk has been demonstrated to increase unacceptably rapidly in the framework of the existing system of “unconditional acceptance” of normative standards. To mend the situation, it is necessary to use the “conditional acceptance” model by regarding post hoc decisions made at higher levels as a priori ones at the next (lower) levels. A strategy of environmentally and economically balanced corporate regulation of nature management through minimization of the losses resulting from both excessive caution and breaching the existing regulations has been proposed. This system, combined with the European approach to nature conservation, requires that the “riskless” regulation should be abandoned and is expected to improve the parameters of nature management quality by three to four orders of magnitude.     

Autocenosis and democenosis as individual- and population-level ecological categories in terms of symbiogenesis and systems approach

According to the basic concept of the theory dealt with in this study, autocenosis, i.e., a self-regulatory host-symbiont system, rather than an individual, is the individual-level unit. Then, democenosis, which is a system of autocenoses, corresponds to the population level. Therefore, natural selection of autocenoses rather than individuals occurs in a democenosis, and auto- and democenoses, rather than “individuals” and “populations,” are components of food chains and webs. However, the symbiotic approach does not exclude the population paradigm and will be developed in parallel with it.     

Contemporary changes in open water surface area of Lake Inle, Myanmar

From 1935 to 2000, the net open water area of Inle Lake in Central Shan State, Myanmar decreased from 69.10 to 46.69 km², a loss of 32.4% during this 65-year period. Local beliefs are that losses in lake area have been even greater within the last 100–200 years. Various activities, including timber removal, shifting agriculture in the uplands by various ethnic groups, and unsustainable cultivation practices on the low- and mid-level hillslopes around the lake, have been blamed for both historical and ongoing sedimentation. We take issue with attributing loss of lake area to these activities, and propose instead that ongoing “in-lake” and “near-lake” agricultural practices are the main sources of contemporary sediment and loss of open water area. About 93% (i.e., 20.84 km²) of the recent loss in open water area of the lake is due to the development of floating garden agriculture, largely along the west side of the lake. Direct environmental impacts associated with this practice and with other agriculture activities within the wetlands and margins of the lake include sedimentation, eutrophication, and pollution. Whilst the sustainability of hillslope agriculture and past forestry practices can indeed be questioned, a more urgent need is to address these "in-lake" and "near-lake" practices.     

Storm surges: perspectives and options

This review paper attempts to summarize the scattered and fragmented knowledge about past and possible future changing storm-surge statistics using the particularly well-studied case of the North Sea as an example. For this region, a complete and robust analysis methodology has been developed in recent years. This methodology is based on dynamical and statistical models. Using the concept of dynamical downscaling, development during recent decades, when sufficiently good and homogeneous weather data exist, has been “reconstructed,” and scenarios of possible future change are described. “Localization” allows estimation of changes at specific sites, e.g., harbors. As local water-level statistics depend not only on climate variations but also on local modifications of the local bathymetry, new options for adaptation emerge. For the case of Hamburg, an option for such future adaptations is discussed.     

Remarks on fair wealth accumulation in Russia

The paper addresses the topic of wealth accumulation in Russia. This phenomenon plays an important role for the understanding and forecasting the future economic and social development of the country. The “westernized” paradigm calls for hard honest work during the life and approves getting a reward in a form of wealth in the end. When brought to Russia, this paradigm faces the orthodox traditions and rules together with the post-soviet mental patterns. In this paper, we consider how the pattern “first accumulate wealth, then consume it” competes with its opposition, the pattern “first consume wealth, then accumulate it” in Russia. We base our discussion on the consumers’ simple optimization problem, which exhibits a bifurcation between those two patterns depending on the relation between the consumption “impatience” and the wealth growth rate. We also suggest a framework to model the phenomenon of unfair wealth through impulse type of wealth development.     

To terrace or not: the short-term impact of bench terraces on soil properties and crop response in the Peruvian Andes

Soil erosion is considered as a serious threat to agricultural development in developing countries. Soil and water conservation measures, such as terraces, are often promoted to combat soil erosion and to increase agricultural production. In this paper, the short-term impact of bench terraces, 2–4 years after their establishment, on soil properties and maize yield in the Peruvian Andes is analysed and discussed. The results show that bench terraces did not result in any short term change in soil properties, such as fertility or infiltration capacity. Nevertheless, the bench terraces resulted in 20% higher yields, due to a higher planting density, compared with adjacent sloping fields. However, this increase in yield was nullified by the loss of area occupied by the bench terraces. Bench terraces should therefore be accompanied with other measures to intensify agriculture, such as irrigation or cash crops, to improve the profitability and uptake of bench terraces in the Andes.