基于时空融合NDVI及物候特征的江汉平原水稻种植区提取研究

江汉平原是中国重要的商品粮基地,高精度的水稻种植面积的获取对国家的农业发展与规划具有重要意义。但是我国南方区域云雨天气较多,光学遥感影像缺失严重,同时受卫星重访周期的影响,可用数据较少,进而影响水稻种植面积提取的精度。为解决高时空分辨率影像缺失问题,基于ESTARFM (enhanced spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model)模型开展Landsat 8 OLI与MODIS数据的融合研究,获取具有高时空分辨率的Landsat NDVI时序数据。利用时序数据分析水稻的物候特征并结合关键物候期参数,采用多种机器学习方法对水稻种植区域进行提取。结果表明:利用该种方法能较好地提取研究区水稻种植的面积,并且在采用SVM方法分类时效果最好,水稻种植区域提取的总体分类精度为93.31%,Kappa系数为0.920 2。该研究为多云雨地区农作物种植信息提取提供了一种有效的方法。     

利用微气象测定仪MINCER分析热害条件下的水稻冠层微气象特征

采用模型模拟水稻热害过程及其可能的产量损失是水稻耐高温研究的重要一环,但较精确地测定水稻冠层的微气象条件还存在诸多困难。采用最新研制的水稻冠层微气象测定仪Mincer实地测定法研究了水稻花期热害受害下的冠层微气象特征,并将相关数据与邻近国家基本气象观测站的数据比较,从而形成了水稻冠层、水稻田田面上部(距田面2倍株高,约1.9m)和空旷地(距地面1.5m)等的对比。结果表明,供试品种受到花期热害后,结实率降低4.0%,达到显著受害水平。在此条件下,日平均气温值由水稻田冠层、水稻田上部与空旷地相比依次升高,水稻冠层与水稻田上部的温度值一般分别比空旷地低2.05、0.92℃,且在连续高温的部分时段出现冠层温度的异常升高;相对湿度值反之,由冠层内部、水稻田上部与空旷地依次降低,水稻冠层与水稻田上部的相对湿度值分别比空旷地低高14.55%、5.97%(绝对值)。此外,高温天气下开花前后水稻田上部与冠层温湿度差的变化幅度都小于常温天气,且出现的时间段早于常温。这些结果,对设定水稻高温受害鉴定条件、模拟水稻高温受害过程均具有重要指导意义。     

基于GIS的湖北省水稻生产潜力研究

使用GIS技术，以分县（市，区）为基本单位研究湖北省近年水稻生产状况。综合气象资料、地形数据、水稻作物生长发育规律和适应性气候指标，划分出湖北省水稻适宜性种植区域；根据各县（市、区）区域水稻实际生产数据，分早、中、晚稻划定出水稻生产的高、中和低产区域；测算湖北省水稻光温生产潜力为 17 000~22 000 kg/hm2，光温生产潜力可利用度为3306%~7830%。按照农业气候资源的相似性和农业气候利用一致性原则研究表明：湖北省水稻综合生产潜力为31742万t。该研究结果和建立的数据库为更好地指导和规〖JP2〗划湖北省水稻种植、生产和实施系列高产科技工程项目提供了依据和参考。该研究方法，能够扩展用于粮食作物种植区划和农业区划研究     

基于时空数据融合的江汉平原水稻种植信息提取

及时、准确监测水稻种植面积,对区域粮食政策制定、粮食安全以及农业发展具有重要意义。然而我国南方地区水稻生长期内降水充沛的气候特点使得遥感影像"云污染"现象严重,为解决水稻种植信息遥感提取存在可用数据不足的问题,以江汉平原为例,利用时空数据融合模型(Spatial and Temporal Data Fusion Approach,STDFA)将Landsat 8 OLI与时序MODIS数据融合,重构出具有高时-空分辨率特征数据,然后采用面向对象的SVM分类方法对研究区内水稻种植信息进行提取,结果如下:融合后的红与近红外波段反射率与真实反射率的相关系数分别为0.84和0.81,研究区水稻提取精度为94.46%,Kappa系数为0.91。说明时空融合模型能够较好地重构出高时空分辨率数据,从而实现多云雨地区农作物种植信息遥感提取。     

Mapping the global supply and demand structure of rice

Rice plays a major role in the global supply and demand for sustainable food production. The constraints of maintaining sustainable rice production are closely linked to the relationship between the distribution patterns of human activity on the planet and economic growth. Global patterns of rice production can be mapped by using various criteria linked to domestic income, population patterns, and associated satellite brightness data of rice-producing regions. Prosperous regions have more electric lighting, and there are documented correlations between gross domestic product (GDP) and nighttime light. We chose to examine global rice production patterns on a geographical basis. For the purposes of this study, each country is considered to be made up of regions, and rice production is discussed in terms of regional distribution. A region is delineated by its administrative boundaries; the number of regions where rice is produced is about 13,839. We used gridded spatial population distribution data overlain by nocturnal light imagery derived from satellite imagery. The resultant relationship revealed a correlation between regional income (nominal values of GDP were used) and rice production in the world. The following criteria were used to examine the supply and demand structure of rice. Global rice consumption = “caloric rice consumption per capita per day” multiplied by “regional population values”. Regional rice yields = “country-based production” divided by “harvested area” (multiple harvests are taken into account). Regional rice production = “regional harvested areas” multiplied by “rice yield values”. We compared regional rice consumption and production values according to these methods. Analysis of the data sets generated a map of rice supply and demand. Inter-regional shipping costs were not accounted for. This map can contribute to the understanding of food security issues in rice-producing regions and to estimating potential population values in such regions.     

绿色防控技术对稻农经济收益的影响及其作用机制

中国农业正在向绿色发展转变,绿色防控技术在确保粮食安全和保护生态环境方面发挥着重要作用。文章基于四川省623户水稻种植户的微观调查数据,采用倾向得分匹配法消除了样本选择性偏差,分析了绿色防控技术对农户经济收益的影响及其作用机制,并对研究结果进行了一系列的稳健性检验。研究结果表明:①绿色防控技术的采纳能够显著改善稻农的经济收益。与未采纳绿色防控技术的状态相比,采纳绿色防控技术能够使农户每亩水稻的毛收入增加104.96%,每亩水稻的净利润增加40.45%。②从作用机制上看,采纳绿色防控技术使稻农获得了更高的市场溢价,同时有利于激励稻农扩大水稻种植规模,并增加对农地的投入,包括提高有机肥和种子的投入费用。③尽管采纳绿色防控技术带来了一定的消极影响,即提高了病虫害损失率,导致一定程度的减产,但整体而言,采纳绿色防控技术所带来的价格溢价弥补了因病虫害引致的产量损失,改善了稻农的经济收益。④绿色防控技术对稻农经济收益的影响会由于教育水平的差异以及互联网的应用而存在明显的异质性。最后,研究从加大农村人力资本投入、完善农村互联网设施、强化绿色防控技术政策支持以及加强对农用化学投入品的监管等四个方面提出对策建议。     

湖北省双季稻生长季降水及洪涝变化特征

利用1961～2008年湖北省双季稻区常规气象站资料，统计计算了双季稻产区在早晚稻生长季的降水量、暴雨量、暴雨日数以及洪涝发生次数，揭示了近50 a来双季稻区降水及洪涝的变化特征。结果显示：湖北省双季稻区在早晚稻生长季的降水量都有弱的增加趋势，尤其是鄂东北局部和江汉平原南部；在水稻抽穗扬花至成熟期间，早稻暴雨量大部有不显著的增加趋势，而晚稻则大部为弱减少趋势。早稻生长季内洪涝的发生次数总体呈增加趋势，局部地区严重洪涝发生次数加大；晚稻生长季洪涝总次数有略减少趋势，重度以上洪涝发生很少，但呈略增加趋势     

稻田种养结合循环农业模式生态环境效应实证分析——以南方稻区稻-鱼模式为例

稻田种养结合循环农业模式生态环境效应明显,其主要体现在节肥、节药、抑草、改善土壤和水体等方面上。本文根据对南方稻区的入户调查数据和2001-2009年中国统计年鉴、中国农村统计年鉴、中国农业统计年鉴相关统计数据及化肥农药使用量的技术标准,实证分析了稻田种养结合循环农业模式的节肥、节药的生态环境效应。调查分析显示,稻-鱼模式下农户化肥使用量比常规水稻种植模式的使用量要减少15.21%,农药使用量要减少40.17%;相关性分析表明南方稻区稻-鱼种养结合模式的稻田面积占水稻生产总面积的百分比与化肥、农药使用量之间呈负相关关系,相关系数分别为-0.407 2和-0.979 9。可以看出,在稻-鱼的稻田生态系统中,土壤和水体的改善以及有害生物的减少,形成了鱼类对化肥和农药的替代关系,在稻谷产量不变甚至增产以及增加鱼类产出的情况下,农户大幅度减少了化肥和农药的使用量,因此实施扶持稻田种养结合循环农业模式策略,是改善稻区农业生态环境的重要途径。     

基于DNDC模型的双季稻体系氨挥发损失研究

为了探索长江流域双季稻体系氮肥施用对氨挥发损失的影响，评价Denitrification Decomposition (DNDC)模型对产量和氨挥发拟合的适应性，设计了早稻和晚稻不同氮肥用量田间试验，采用密闭室间歇通气法原位观测氨挥发排放通量，利用DNDC模型进行模拟分析，并运用模拟结果探讨了水稻产量和氨挥发损失与施氮量之间的关系。结果显示，模型能较好模拟双季稻体系水稻产量和氨挥发，早稻、晚稻和双季稻产量模拟值与观测值的相关系数分别为0.994、0.928、0.979，早稻、晚稻和整个双季稻生育期氨挥发模拟值与观测值的相关系数分别为0.994、0.998和0.997，均达到极显著水平。DNDC模型能较好预测因施肥引起的氨挥发排放峰，但在氨挥发通量和排放总量的定量上还需要进一步改进。敏感性指数分析表明，气温是影响作物产量的关键因素，氮肥用量和气温是影响氨挥发的主要因素。DNDC模型在模拟双季稻体系籽粒产量上具有较高的可信度，DNDC模拟和田间观测数据计算的最高产量施氮量分别是420和417 kg·hm^-2。稻田氨挥发损失量与施氮量之间满足二次函数和线性关系，二次函数能更好描述两者之间的关系。为使DNDC更准确的进行估算和应用，有必要获取更翔实的环境资料以减少输入数据的不确定性。     

责任意识能激发稻农亲环境生产行为吗？——基于情境约束的调节效应

积极鼓励与推广农业亲环境生产行为，是实现我国农业绿色、可持续发展的必然选择。基于湖北省765份实地调研数据，运用有序Probit模型探讨了责任意识对稻农亲环境生产行为的影响，并进一步检验了情境约束的调节效应，以期厘清与掌握不同情境下责任意识的作用机理。结果显示：（1）稻农亲环境生产行为采纳程度较低，集中于采纳1~2项的样本为主，平均采纳数量为1.91项。（2）责任意识维度中，责任归属、责任认知对稻农亲环境生产行为均起到显著正向影响，而行为担当却起到显著负向影响。（3）村规民约能减轻行为担当对稻农亲环境生产行为的负向影响，但也会一定程度上削弱责任认知的积极作用；面对农业生态环境压力，责任归属对稻农亲环境生产行为的正向作用同样有所降低。     

Rice farming sustainability assessment in Bangladesh

Farming sustainability is primordial to long-term socioeconomic development. This study assesses rice farming sustainability in Bangladesh by developing a composite indicator (CI) under the four pillars of sustainability and examines the main determining factors. The assemblage of top-down and bottom-up approaches were applied to generate an essential set of indicators and data were collected through a household survey from 15 villages of three major rice growing ecosystems. The results revealed that less than half of the rice growers were sustainable in terms of economical viability, ecological benefits, and quality of life. By category, Boro rice farming was found to be the most sustainable, followed by Aman and Aus rice farming. Human capital development, increasing land productivity, use of resource conserving practices and technologies, and information availability and accessibility were the main factors promoting rice farming sustainability. The findings indicated that the construction of CI by employing several methodologies such as normalisation provide straightforward and clear-cut policy inputs. The major policy implications that emerged from the findings of the study are outlined to actualise rice farming sustainability, which contributes to sustainable development in Bangladesh.     

Farming adaptation to environmental change in coastal Bangladesh: shrimp culture versus crop diversification

Farming in coastal Bangladesh includes rice/shrimp and rice/non-rice cropping systems. The former has been highly profitable but has exacerbated salinization of soil and water. We evaluate the relative profitability, riskiness, and sustainability of the two cropping systems, using data from two coastal villages in Khulna District. Shrimp cultivation was initially very rewarding. However, over 12–15 years, the cropping system experienced declining profitability, increased salinity, and adverse impacts on rice cropping and the local environment. From 2009, farmers adapted the system by changing the pond (gher) infrastructure, adopting delayed planting of a saline-tolerant rice cultivar, flushing out accumulated salt with freshwater during rice cropping, and allowing the soil to dry out after harvesting rice. The budgeting results show that with current management practices, the rice/shrimp system is economically more viable (higher returns to land and labour and less risky) than the rice/non-rice system. Soil analyses showed that while salinity was higher in the gher during the dry season, it was significantly reduced in the wet season and was very similar between the two systems (1–2 dS/m). Hence, as well as being more profitable and less risky, the rice/shrimp system may well be more sustainable than previously observed.     

Changing the planting date as a climate change adaptation strategy for rice production in Kurunegala district, Sri Lanka

The effect of changing the planting date on the dry season rice yield was simulated by using the software Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 4.5) for four rice varieties grown in Kurunegala district, Sri Lanka under expected climate change. Daily weather data up to the year 2090 were downscaled to the district from Global Climate Model outputs under the emission scenarios A2 and B2 published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM 4.2). The DSSAT model was applied to simulate future rice yields from four rice varieties grown in the district under three different planting dates: (1) planting in May—the base condition; (2) advancing the planting date by 1 month, i.e., to June; and (3) planting 1 month earlier, i.e., in April. Results show that the seasonally averaged dry season rice yield would increase compared to the base condition when the planting date is advanced by 1 month and, on the other hand, the seasonally averaged rice yield would decrease compared to the base condition when the planting date is delayed by 1 month for all four varieties under both A2 and B2 scenarios. Advancing the rice planting date by 1 month for all four rice varieties can be identified as a non-cost climate change adaptation strategy for rice production in Kurunegala district.     

资源贫瘠地区农户技术采用的影响因素分析

引入双槛模型,分两个阶段考察滇西南资源贫瘠地区农户改良陆稻技术采用行为的影响因素。第一,农户决定是否采用改良陆稻技术(采用决定)的影响因素;第二,如果采用,农户决定改良陆稻技术采用程度(采用程度决定)的影响因素。研究发现,影响农户决定是否采用改良陆稻技术的因素和影响农户决定改良陆稻技术采用程度的因素存在很大差异。农户所拥有的资源禀赋状况,例如耕地面积、市场远近、缺粮程度、海拔高度和有无技术推广项目等对农户的采用决定有显著的正向影响;而家庭劳动力比重和水田面积比例则有显著的负向影响。农户家庭规模和台地面积比例对农户技术采用程度决定呈现显著的正向影响,而耕地面积、水田面积比例和海拔高度则对其呈现显著的负向影响。因此,在制定资源贫瘠山区的农业技术推广政策时,应该充分注意区分影响技术推广广度和深度的不同因素,使不同政策措施更能在资源缺乏的情况下具有适应性和针对性。     

近50年安徽省双季稻安全生产期变化特征

为进一步了解安徽省双季稻安全生产界限温度日期变化特征，以安徽省22个双季稻生产市(县)气象观测站1961～2017年日平均气温为基础，采用线性趋势法和Mann-Kendall非参数检验法，分析了安徽省沿江双季稻区早稻安全播种期、移栽期和晚稻安全齐穗期、成熟期及双季稻安全生长期日数、积温变化特征。结果表明:近50年安徽省沿江地区早稻安全播种期呈显著提前趋势(P<0.05)，其中薄膜育秧平均提前1.8 d/10 a，露天育秧提前1.5 d/10 a；早稻安全移栽期呈极显著提前趋势(P<0.01)，平均提前2.5 d/10 a；晚稻安全齐穗期、成熟期推迟趋势不显著(P>0.05)；安全生产期日数和积温增加显著(P<0.01)，平均增幅分别为2.6和62.7℃·d/10 a。安全生产期日数和积温增加对双季稻种植和品种选择具有积极作用，但晚稻采用直播、机插等栽种方式有遭遇低温冷害的风险。     

Sustainability of rice production systems: an empirical evaluation to improve policy

An evaluation is needed to monitor the progress of sustainable development (SD) in rice production systems. The purpose of this study is to provide policy inputs, examine the sustainability of rice production, and determine major policy areas. A requisite set of 12 indicators of three dimensions of SD, namely economic, was generated by employing an assemblage of top–down and bottom–up approaches. The data were gathered from farm households’ survey as well as in-depth discussion with stakeholders from the regions that represent irrigated, rain-fed lowland, rain-fed upland, flood-prone, and saline-prone rice-growing ecosystems in Bangladesh. By constructing composite indicators, the results revealed that 44 % of rice growers were economically viable, environmentally sound, and socially developed. The irrigated rice production system was found to be the most sustainable. The path analysis measured the contribution of the indicators to the index, and results highlighted that rice growers’ knowledge, skills, and social networks development, improving land productivity, and integrated nutrient management were essential for promoting sustainable rice production. However, the study findings suggest that pluralistic (i.e., government and non-government) agricultural advisory services can serve as an engine of transition to rice production sustainability in which a multi-year planning and strategy formulation are crucial besides investing in the modernization of extension services. Overall and ecosystem-specific policy implications that emerged from the findings of this study are outlined.     

Assessing the probability of land submergence for lowland rice cultivation in Africa using satellite imagery and geospatial data

Sub-Saharan African countries are being strongly urged to enhance their rice production, because their rice consumption and importation rates have been rapidly increasing in recent years. Areas planted to rice in Africa are classified agro-ecologically into rainfed upland, rainfed lowland, and irrigated. Rainfed lowland includes extensive areas of unexploited land that has great potential for the promotion of rice growing. For the unexploited rainfed lowlands of Ghana, we have been studying the development of low-cost rice-farming systems that require no large-scale irrigation or land reclamation. For such systems, it is important to select suitable areas where water for rice farming can be obtained naturally; floodwaters offer promise for this purpose. Delineation and mapping of floodwater prone areas suitable for rice production is important for successful utilization of this land resource. Here, we propose a method of assessing flood probability from submergence frequency, as estimated from satellite imagery and geospatial data. ALOS/PALSAR images acquired in May, June, August, and September 2010 were used to classify land and water, and then a submerged-area map was produced. From the results, we were able to accurately detect non-submerged areas and submerged areas with water depths of at least 3?cm. The number of times classified into submerged area was defined as submergence frequency, and it was approximated by distance from reservoirs representing White Volta River, ponds, and swamps. In addition, flood extent derived from reservoirs was simulated using digital elevation model (DEM). Finally, a flood probability assessment map was produced by integration of the estimated submergence frequency and flood extent simulation. The results of a comparison of soil moisture data measured at 69 points in the field and the NDVIs computed by ALOS/AVNIR showed that areas with high potential for flooding retained high levels of soil moisture and were more likely to show less deterioration of vegetation in the dry season. The validation of these results confirmed the adequacy of the flood probability assessment method.     

Uptake of radionuclides and stable elements from paddy soil to rice: a review

The critical paths for radionuclides and the critical foods in Asian countries differ from those in Western countries because agricultural products and diets are different. Consequently, safety assessments for Asian countries must consider rice as a critical food. As most rice is produced under flooded conditions, the uptake of radionuclides by rice is affected by soil conditions. In this report, we summarize radionuclide and stable element soil-to-plant transfer factors (TFs) for rice. Field observation results for fallout ¹³⁷Cs and stable Cs TFs indicated that while fallout ¹³⁷Cs had higher TF than stable Cs over several decades, the GM (geometric mean) values were similar with the GM of TF value for ¹³⁷Cs being 3.6 × 10⁻³ and that for stable Cs being 2.5 × 10⁻³. Although there are some limitations to the use of TF for stable elements under some circumstances, these values can be used to evaluate long-term transfer of long-lived radionuclides in the environment. The compiled data showed that TF values were higher in brown rice than in white rice because distribution patterns for elements were different in the bran and white parts of rice grains.     

利用多时相HJ CCD影像监测江汉平原南部地区棉花和中稻种植面积

为探讨利用国产HJ卫星遥感数据进行农作物种植面积估算及农业气象灾害定量监测评估的可行性,以江汉平原南部县市为研究区,利用2011年6景不同时相的HJ卫星CCD遥感数据,结合野外调查样方点和面积较大的试验基地样本,通过分析研究区主要秋收作物（棉花、一季中稻）不同生育期的光谱特征和归一化植被指数（NDVI）时序变化特征,对分类影像进行序列阈值分割、掩膜处理,最后利用决策树算法成功提取了棉花和一季中稻的种植面积,得到面积精度和样本点精度均大于90%,Kappa系数为0983 5的结果。只要不受到云和降水的影响,能获取江汉平原区域关键时相（5月中下旬、6月上旬、7月上旬、7月下旬或8月上中旬、10月上旬）HJ 卫星CCD影像数据,便能很好地应用于江汉平原棉花和中稻作物提取     

邻里效应与农技推广对农户稻虾共养技术采纳的影响分析——互补效应与替代效应

稻虾共养生态农业技术可以带来良好的经济、生态和社会效应,但由于有效技术来源不足、较高的技术与经济风险给农户采纳带来多重约束。以稻虾共养技术为例,利用湖北省与江苏省605份农户调研数据,通过理论与实证分析了邻里效应与农技推广对农户稻虾共养技术采纳的影响及二者的互补与替代效应。研究发现:(1)邻里观察性学习、交流感受均显著正向促进农户稻虾共养技术采纳。(2)通过农资企业的经营性农技推广显著正向影响农户稻虾共养技术采纳。(3)对农户稻虾共养技术采纳的影响上,观察性学习、社会规范均与农技推广存在部分替代效应,邻里农户交流感受与农技推广存在部分替代与互补效应。基于上述研究结论,该文认为应该有效结合邻里效应与农技推广的互补与替代效应,提高各农技推广主体的运行效率和实际影响力,进而提高农户的采纳规范性和效率。