Farmer typology, future scenarios and the implications for ecosystem service provision: a case study from south-eastern Spain

Farming communities are increasingly expected to manage their agricultural activities in ways that ensure sustainable flows of a wide range of ecosystem services for society. The land use and management choices that farmers make are dependent upon their socio-economic characteristics and background, and in turn have important implications for the landscape and associated ecosystem services. Thus, a better understanding about the linkages between the characteristics of farmers, farm management and land use is important for managing multifunctional agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we first develop a typology of farmers for Torrealvilla catchment in Murcia, Spain, according to the characteristics of their households and farm management (e.g. the farmer’s age, household income, water access, land tenure and farm labour). This analysis distinguishes six types of farmers. Secondly, we analyse the link between farmer typology and the farmers’ responses to a number of scenarios. The scenarios describe different likely changes to agriculture in the catchment in terms of environmental constraints (irrigation water availability and rainfall pattern) and environmental policy regulation (water taxation and subsidies). This exercise enables us to explore the range of future land use changes that are likely to occur in the study area. The results indicate that: rain-fed agriculture is expected to experience gradual but extensive abandonment; vegetable/fruit farming and pig/animal rearing are likely to stagnate or even decline; and growing of grapes is likely to expand. Thirdly, we qualitatively evaluate how future land use changes are likely to affect key ecosystem services in the study area including future agricultural production and associated local income generation, erosion control, maintenance of the groundwater table and various cultural services associated with a heterogeneous agro-ecosystem. Particular changes such as expansion of grape production will increase food production and local income at the cost of further depletion of the aquifer and increased risk of salinisation. The outcomes of the study highlight that, to be effective, the design of agri-environmental schemes and other government interventions (e.g. specific compulsory regulations on farming practices and associated water use) should carefully take into account the characteristics of the farmers within the area of interest, their land uses and the possible diversity of responses to policy and environmental drivers. Opportunities exist for future studies quantifying the extent of the impacts of ecosystem service provision through formal models combining farmers’ land use decision-making and spatially explicit modelling of landscape processes.     

Soil degradation and agricultural sustainability: an overview from Iran

During the past six decades, agriculture as a main sector in Iran’s economy has been affected by economic development, land-use policies, and population growth and its pressures. From the 1940s until 2010, the percentage of the total urban population of Iran increased from about 21?% to around 72?%. Urbanization, industrialization, and intensive cultivation have dramatically affected soil and water resources. The exploitation of groundwater has been increased around fourfold from the 1970s to the mid-2000s. Total water resources per capita reduced around 23?% from 1956 to 2008. The average annual decrease in the groundwater table in Iran during the last two decades is 0.51?m. In 2008, the groundwater table fell around ?1.14?m in average in Iran. The average use of chemical fertilizers increased from around 2.1?million tons in 1990s to about 3.7?million tons in 2009. During that period, fertilizer use efficiency decreased from around 28?% to around 21?%. Approximately 77?% of the agricultural land under irrigation suffers from different levels of salinity. According to the quantification of four indices, such as soil erosion, fall in groundwater levels, salinity, and use of chemical fertilizer, that are directly related to agricultural land use, the results show that agricultural management in Iran needs special attention to reach sustainable conditions. The total cost of soil and water degradation and use of fertilizers in agriculture are estimated around than US $12.8?billion (about 157,000?billion IRRials)—approximately 4?% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) and approximately 35?% of the GDP of the agricultural sector in Iran.     

Assessment of the impacts of climate change and variability on water resources and use,food security,and economic welfare in Iran

Climate change influences the agricultural sector by reducing available water resources, thereby influencing income, consumer and producer surplus, and crop prices. So, it is necessary to have a comprehensive integrated method to measure the effects of these changes on natural resources and social conditions. The present study aims to use the positive mathematical programming method to discover the trend and conditions of groundwater resources, agricultural water use, food security, and economic welfare of the agricultural sector in Iran. To this end, data for the period 2000–2015 was used under four different scenarios of normal climate change, climate change, climate variability, and concurrent climate change The results showed that the mean agricultural water use will amount to 35,103.6, 26,533.8, 35,216, and 26,510.7 million m³ and the mean decline in the reserves of aquifers will amount to 4422.22, 11,165.6, 4438.25, and 11,267.4 million m³ under the scenarios, respectively. With respect to food security, the net farm revenue will be 314,560, 248,753, 315,427, and 248,574 billion IRR, respectively. The mean crop price per ton will reach 905.3, 1141.8, 904, and 1142.8 million IRR, respectively. The mean consumer surplus will be 172,107.7, 166,450, 172,024, and 166,403 billion IRR and the mean producer surplus will be 419,959.2, 395,380, 419,751, and 395,204 billion IRR, respectively. Based on the results, to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on different studied aspects, it is necessary to change policymaking in the water and agricultural sectors, especially regarding the shift from traditional agricultural water allocation to its market-based allocation and to change planting pattern.

     

气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

利用经济学上的“投入－产出”分析方法,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构,预测了未来不同的气候变化情景下,为使经济发展达到预期目标,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。     

Adaptation to climate change and other stressors among commercial and small-scale South African farmers

Commercial and small-scale farmers in South Africa are exposed to many challenges. Interviews with 44 farmers in the upper Thukela basin, KwaZulu-Natal, were conducted to identify common and specific challenges for the two groups and adaptive strategies for dealing with the effects of climate and other stressors. This work was conducted as part of a larger participatory project with local stakeholders to develop a local adaptation plan for coping with climate variability and change. Although many challenges related to exposure to climate variability and change, weak agricultural policies, limited governmental support, and theft were common to both farming communities, their adaptive capacities were vastly different. Small-scale farmers were more vulnerable due to difficulties to finance the high input costs of improved seed varieties and implements, limited access to knowledge and agricultural techniques for water and soil conservation and limited customs of long-term planning. In addition to temperature and drought-related challenges, small-scale farmers were concerned about soil erosion, water logging and livestock diseases, challenges for which the commercial farmers already had efficient adaptation strategies in place. The major obstacle hindering commercial farmers with future planning was the lack of clear directives from the government, for example, with regard to issuing of water licences and land reform. Enabling agricultural communities to procure sustainable livelihoods requires implementation of strategies that address the common and specific challenges and strengthen the adaptive capacity of both commercial and small-scale farmers. Identified ways forward include knowledge transfer within and across farming communities, clear governmental directives and targeted locally adapted finance programmes.     

气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

利用经济学上的“投入—产出”分析方法 ,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统 ,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时 ,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构 ,预测了未来不同气候变化情景下 ,为使经济发展达到预期目标 ,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化 ,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系 ,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。     

The impact of global change on economic values of water for Public Irrigation Schemes at the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil

Economic values of water for the main Public Irrigation Schemes in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco River Basin, in northeastern Brazil, are determined in this study using an integration of a global agro-economic land and water use (MAgPIE) with a local economic model (Positive Mathematical Programming). As in the latter, the water values depend on the crops grown, and as Brazilian agriculture is strongly influenced by the global market, we used a regionalized version of the global model adapted to the region in order to simulate the crop land use, which is in turn determined by changes in global demand, trade barriers, and climate. The allocation of sugarcane and fruit crops projected with climate change by the global model, showed an impact on the average yields and on the water costs in the main schemes resulting in changes in the water values locally. The economic values for all schemes in the baseline year were higher than the water prices established for agricultural use in the basin. In the future, these water values will be higher in all the schemes. The highest water values currently and in the future were identified in municipalities with a significant proportion of area growing irrigated sugarcane. Being aware of current water values of each user in a baseline year and in a projected future under global climate and socioeconomic changes, decision makers should improve water allocation policies at local scale, in order to avoid conflicts and unsustainable development in the future.     

Sustaining livelihoods in face of groundwater depletion: a case study of Punjab, India

The study focuses on assessing the sustainable livelihoods of farmers in Indian Punjab focusing on the key aspects of cropping pattern, cost of cultivation, agricultural productivity and profitability amongst different classes of farmers at different levels of groundwater depletion. It further gives a comparative analysis of the proportionate gains the farmers avail from the government subsidies of electricity and procurement price and relates it to their coping mechanisms to sustain agriculture in future. The findings indicate to the fact that technology to extract groundwater, being capital intensive, gives greater accessibility to groundwater to large farmers who gain enormously from growing the remunerative but water-intensive rice crop. Electricity subsidy being not targeted is also misappropriated by the resource rich, water extraction machine owners. To cope with this resource depletion, the large farmers dig and deepen more tube-wells and the small and marginal farmers with little savings who are unable to invest in costly water extraction machines, buy water, shift to less profitable maize crop, lease out or sell their land.     

转型期耕地数量动态变化及最佳非农转化量的实证研究——以江苏省为例

伴随着我国经济的快速发展和城市化进程的加快，对土地资源的需求量急剧上升，作为土地中的精华——耕地资源也在农业部门和经济建设之间面临着如何分配的矛盾。如何确保耕地资源在粮食安全和经济发展间的优化配置已经成为一个迫切需要解决的问题。本文试图通过对江苏省耕地数量的变动态势进行分析，并运用区域容许耕地转换量化模型（MAC）来确定江苏省可以允许转换的耕地的最优数量，借此来确定区域耕地保护的底线及调控指标，为城市化进程中区域耕地资源的优化配置提供一种依据和解决思路。     

Synergistic vulnerabilities: climate variability and fire management policy increase farming challenges in southeastern Mexico

Agricultural fire for land preparation is central in the livelihoods of subsistence farmers practicing shifting cultivation. Achieving a good agricultural burn, one in which the biomass is thoroughly consumed within the chosen area, depends on specific weather conditions. Fire use decisions are also shaped by institutions that define the timing and rules for fire use but also constrain the alternatives and shape adaptive capacities. Global and regional climate changes interact with the institutional framing of fire management affecting local fire use and burn outcomes. These effects are documented and analyzed to suggest adaptations to existing governance systems. We examined subsistence farmers’ socio-ecological vulnerability in the Calakmul municipality, located in southeastern Mexico. Using interviews with farmers and government agents, as well as participatory mapping and observation of agricultural burns, we studied fire management knowledge, practices and burn outcomes. Our results describe a continuum of burn outcomes covering good agricultural burns, uncontrolled burns leading to wildfires and “malquemados” literally poorly burned areas. Malquemados represent unsuccessful combustion associated with excess moisture that results in scorched vegetation. We discuss how unexpected early rains trigger effects that cascade through space and the ecological, economic and cultural domains. We argue that fire management has been historically approached from a conservation standpoint yet agricultural fire use and wildfire prevention should also be addressed from a rural development perspective. This shift in fire management would lead to the proper inclusion of the entire array of burn outcomes in studies and policies addressing farmers’ vulnerability amplified by synergistic effects between climate variability and institutional change.     

长江中下游稻-麦轮作系统生命周期环境影响评价——以江苏南京为例

长江中下游地区是我国稻麦主产区,辨析该区农业生产过程的环境效应,可为实现农业绿色发展提供理论指导。以稻麦轮作典型生产区江苏南京为例,应用生命周期评价方法对该系统生命周期的资源消耗和污染物排放清单进行分析和评价。结果表明:在该稻-麦轮作体系中,水稻生命周期的环境影响主要是富营养化、水体毒性、环境酸化和土壤毒性,环境影响指数分别为2.32、0.76、0.33和0.27;而小麦生命周期的环境影响主要为富营养化、水体毒性、土壤毒性和环境酸化,环境影响指数分别为2.50、2.09、0.32和0.23。肥料、农药、柴油的生产和使用是引起能源消耗和气候变暖的主要因素;农户超量施用氮肥是造成潜在环境酸化和富营养化的关键;农药的使用是造成水体毒素和土壤毒素的最主要原因;而氮肥和农药投入对人类毒性均有较大影响。因此,在工业领域加快新型能源开发,实施清洁生产;在农业领域优化田间管理措施(如减少氮肥施用、研发多功能一体化农机及推广低毒高效农药)能有效控制长江中下游地区稻麦生产负面环境影响,提高该区农业可持续发展能力。     

Towards adaptation of agriculture to climate change in the Mediterranean

This study links climate change impacts to the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture on the Mediterranean region. Climate change is expected to intensify the existing risks, particularly in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities for improving land and water management. These risks and opportunities are characterised and interpreted across Mediterranean areas by analysing water scarcity pressures and potential impacts on crop productivity over the next decades. The need to respond to these risks and opportunities is addressed by evaluating an adaptive capacity index that represents the ability of Mediterranean agriculture to respond to climate change. We propose an adaptive capacity index with three major components that characterise the economic capacity, human and civic resources, and agricultural innovation. These results aim to assist stakeholders as they take up the adaptation challenge and develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of the sector to climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.     

Climate change perceptions and adaptations of smallholder farmers in Eastern Kenya

Several studies have indicated the importance of understanding farmers’ perceptions of risks associated with climate change, the adaptation strategies they employ and factors that affect adaptive capacity. This study aimed to understand smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, adaptation strategies and adaptive capacity in the semiarid Matungulu Sub-County, Eastern Kenya. A participatory approach, using three climate roundtables, was conducted to enhance community participation and understanding of climate change issues. The study showed that farmers’ perceptions concerning climate change are influenced by past experiences of weather extremes that have affected production levels and farm incomes. The farmers have made strategic responses to manage risks posed by climate change. However, they face several challenges in adaptation such as inadequate technical knowledge, low financial resources and inadequate land size. Further, the study showed that climate roundtables is a successful participatory approach that can give effective insights for smallholder farmers to understand agricultural vulnerability, climate change and their adaptation strategies.     

How to amend land subsidence treatment policies to solve coastal subsidence problems in Taiwan

Coastal land subsidence is a serious problem in Taiwan. Starting in 1995, the goal of the “Land Subsidence Prevention and Treatment Implementation Program” is to restructure the aquaculture industry to reduce groundwater consumption and reduce coastal land subsidence problems. However, this goal has not been met. This study aims to determine the reasons for its failure through a literature review and an analysis of questionnaires of stakeholders taken over a 5-year period, and design a new program to resolve these problems. The study was conducted in 2005–2009. According to the literature, over-pumping of groundwater around densely concentrated coastal fish ponds is the primary cause of coastal land subsidence. However, the key measure of the program was to establish aquaculture districts primarily in subsiding coastal areas, which failed to reduce land subsidence. In addition, the program did not consider reductions in agricultural and industrial groundwater use. Results of the questionnaire survey were in accord with the literature review results. This paper proposes to establish a “Fish Farming Abandonment Program” offering compensation payments and job training to fish farmers who leave the aquaculture business, thus reducing the amount of coastal land devoted to fish farming, decreasing groundwater consumption, and halting further coastal subsidence. In addition, the proposal also suggests adjustments to the structure of the agriculture industry. The results of this study can serve as a reference for governments of Taiwan and other countries.     

长江流域土地利用/覆被变化的大尺度水文效应

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对流域水文过程具有重要的长期影响作用。针对土地利用覆被变化对大型流域水文过程的影响程度,利用构建的长江流域分布式水文模型分析了土地利用变化情景下的水文效应特征。结果显示:分布式水文模型综合考虑了下垫面土壤、坡度、植被等特征,可以较好的反映降水发生后水分在不同土壤、植被和地形条组合件下,蒸散、地表和地下径流等组分的运移过程。根据不同土地覆被类型的径流成分差异,以及长江流域实际可供调节的土地利用方式,流域现有土地利用格局中农林地依然具有较大的转换空间。根据典型流域中预设的农林地转换情景下的径流效应看,各种情景虽然对流域径流总量变化影响较小,但对蒸散、地表径流和基流可以产生显著影响。其中,林地增加使基流最高提升超过15%,同时可使地表径流下降近5%,两者对蒸散的改变在1%左右,对径流总量变化幅度则只有0.7%左右。不同情景下的水文响应模式反映了未来土地利用调整的水文效应,因此可以基于不同的径流效应,开展有利于综合发挥流域持水能力的空间规划,提升林地所占比重。     

基于农户兼业视角的农业废弃物资源循环利用意愿及其影响因素比较

基于农户兼业视角，利用湖北省农村地区的微观调查数据，运用Logistic回归模型比较了不同兼业类型农户农业废弃物资源循环利用意愿及其影响因素。研究结果显示：（1）大部分农户具有农业废弃物资源循环利用意愿，其中纯农户和一兼农户的利用意愿相当，且高出二兼农户；（2）农户对农业废弃物资源价值的感知是影响不同兼业类型农户利用意愿的共同因素，农户感知农业废弃物资源的价值越高，其利用意愿也越强；（3）影响不同兼业类型农户利用意愿的因素有明显差异，性别对农户尤其是二兼农户的利用意愿有显著的正向作用；年龄对纯农户和二兼农户利用意愿的影响均为负，尤其是对纯农户影响更大；土地经营规模对农户尤其是一兼农户的利用意愿有显著的正向影响；对获取经济收益的感知正向作用于一兼农户和二兼农户的利用意愿，尤其是对一兼农户有更大程度影响；对纯农户而言，对自身经济条件的感知也显著影响其利用意愿     

Evaluating farmers’ likely participation in a payment programme for water quality protection in the UK uplands

Maintaining drinking water quality is essential to water companies and their customers, and agricultural non-point source pollution is a major cause of water quality degradation. In this paper, we examine the potential use of payments financed by a water company as incentives for farmers to adjust their agricultural land management practices in order to protect water quality. We use a choice experiment (CE) to measure farmers’ minimum willingness to accept (WTA) requirements to adjust agricultural land management practices in Nidderdale and the Washburn valley (Yorkshire, UK) under a potential local payment for ecosystem services (PES) programme. Latent class analysis of farmers’ CE responses was used to quantify the size and spread of farmers’ preferences and minimum WTA values for compensation payments, and to investigate potential drivers of preference variation. Analysis suggested that the emphasis on sheep or cattle/dairy production within mixed farming businesses in this area provides a partial explanation for the considerable observed heterogeneity in preferences and minimum WTA requirements for participation in a potential PES programme.     

Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different ‘protein futures’. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today’s species mix; intensive efficient poultry–dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture–dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on ‘ecological leftovers’ (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a ‘plant-based eating’ scenario. For each scenario, ‘projected diet’ and ‘healthy diet’ variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14–86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO₂ in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The ‘ecological leftover’ scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.