Applying Bayesian networks to evaluate small-scale farmers’ perceptions of native reforestation practices in Brazil’s Caatinga biome

In Brazil’s semi-arid Northeast, most rural dwellers derive income from the dry Caatinga forest through livestock farming, fruit collection, and firewood extraction. However, recurring droughts and inadequate land use practices jeopardize farmers’ livelihoods. The drought-resistant, endemic Umbuzeiro tree provides fruit for direct consumption and allows for the creation of transformed products. The planting of this native species can enhance the well-being of the ecosystem and establish future benefits for smallholdings. However, it is crucial that when taking up innovative practices to cope with environmental change, a willingness to apply them should be fostered among local farmers. We used constellation analysis as a transdisciplinary approach to identify elements of current land management which subsequently defined the nodes of a Bayesian network (BN). We developed probabilities of practice uptake that strengthen success, namely the conservation of natural resources while securing the incomes of smallholders. In collaboration with stakeholders and experts, 25 identified nodes for the BN were tested under various scenarios. Adopting all suggested innovative practices secures the final objectives—ecosystem health and farmer benefits (approx. 90%). The analysis quantified the relevance of single issues that may impede farmers to adopt the practices, such as having to cultivate seedlings or avoiding long-term investments. Further crucial actions include the fencing-off of livestock and marketing pathways. Affordable credit, research, and supportive farmers’ institutions can encourage farmers to implement innovative practices. The use of modeled scenarios can provide evidence, which might encourage sustainable land management.     

Farmers’ perception of sustainable agriculture and its determinants: a case study in Kahramanmaras province of Turkey

The primary purpose of this study was to assess in quantitative terms farmers’ perceptions of sustainable agriculture and to determine how those are influenced by different socio-economic characteristics and information-seeking behavior of the farmers. The study was conducted in Kahramanmaras province of Turkey and comprised a stratified sample of 208 farmers from four districts of the province. The farmers rated each of the 21 selected sustainable agricultural practices for importance on a 5-point scale, and the total of these ratings formed the sustainable agriculture perception index. The index score was calculated for each farmer and was treated as the dependent variable in the stepwise regression analysis procedure. The independent variables were such socio-economic characteristics as the farming system, the total and irrigated area of the farm, membership of a cooperative society and participation in village administration, and age, education, and income of the farmer; components of information-seeking behavior included use of the mass media (newspapers, radio, and television), use of the Internet, travel, and participation in farming events. The results of the study showed that the higher the socio-economic status (more frequent contact with extension services, higher education, ownership of land, etc.) and the greater the access to information, the greater the perceived importance of sustainable agricultural practices. It is concluded that if policy-makers and extension organizations concentrate on these factors, they are more likely to succeed in making farmers more favorably disposed toward sustainable agriculture.     

Evaluating farmers’ likely participation in a payment programme for water quality protection in the UK uplands

Maintaining drinking water quality is essential to water companies and their customers, and agricultural non-point source pollution is a major cause of water quality degradation. In this paper, we examine the potential use of payments financed by a water company as incentives for farmers to adjust their agricultural land management practices in order to protect water quality. We use a choice experiment (CE) to measure farmers’ minimum willingness to accept (WTA) requirements to adjust agricultural land management practices in Nidderdale and the Washburn valley (Yorkshire, UK) under a potential local payment for ecosystem services (PES) programme. Latent class analysis of farmers’ CE responses was used to quantify the size and spread of farmers’ preferences and minimum WTA values for compensation payments, and to investigate potential drivers of preference variation. Analysis suggested that the emphasis on sheep or cattle/dairy production within mixed farming businesses in this area provides a partial explanation for the considerable observed heterogeneity in preferences and minimum WTA requirements for participation in a potential PES programme.     

Recent changes in ecosystem services and human well-being in the Bangladesh coastal zone

This study takes an historical approach in order to establish how the form and function of the social-ecological system that represents the Bangladesh south-western coastal zone has changed over recent decades. Time series data for a range of ecosystem services and drivers are analysed to define the range of trends, the presence of change points, slow and fast variables and the significant drivers of change. Since the 1980s, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. As a result, the size of population below the poverty line has reduced by ~17 %. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services such as water availability, water quality and land stability have deteriorated. Conversion of rice fields to shrimp farms is almost certainly a factor in increasing soil and surface water salinity. Most of the services experienced statistically significant change points between 1975 and 1980, and among the services, water availability, shrimp farming and maintenance of biodiversity appear to have passed tipping points. An environmental Kuznets curve analysis suggests that the point at which growing economic wealth feeds back into effective environmental protection has not yet been reached for water resources. Trends in indicators of ecosystem services and human well-being point to widespread non-stationary dynamics governed by slowly changing variables with an increased likelihood of systemic threshold changes/tipping points in the near future. The results will feed into simulation models and strategies that can define alternative and sustainable paths for land management.     

林业生产性服务能促进农户林地规模经营吗?--基于林地流入视角的实证分析

厘清林业生产性服务对农户林地规模经营的影响,可为盘活集体林区林地资源、促进家庭林业发展提供决策参考。为考察林业生产性服务对林地规模经营的影响,首先构建了考虑林业生产性服务及林地规模的农户生产模型,通过理论分析后提出假设:林业生产性服务投入增加,将促进农户增加林地要素投入,即林业生产性服务对农户林地规模经营有正向影响。其次,基于福建500份经营商品林农户调查数据,利用Double-Hurdle模型及工具变量处理选择性偏差、遗漏变量及联立因果等引起的内生性问题,实证分析林业生产性服务对农户林地规模经营的影响。结果发现:不同类型的林业生产性服务对农户林地规模经营影响存在差异。其中,林业信贷服务对农户林地规模经营有正向影响,正规信贷与非正规信贷分别使农户林地流入概率提升19.6%、15.9%,使农户林地流入规模分别扩大66.8%、38.5%。林业物资与技术服务仅在是否流入林地阶段对农户林地规模经营有正向影响,使农户林地流入概率提升8.9%。林业劳动力服务仅在林地流入规模阶段对农户林地规模经营有正向影响,使得农户林地流入规模扩大66.9%。林业销售服务由于买方垄断特征对农户林地规模经营有负向影响,使农户林地流入概率降低12.3%,使农户林地流入规模缩减73.2%。因而,政府应有针对地激励和规范各类林业生产性服务发展,以更好地服务于集体林区家庭林业发展。     

Economic potential for conversion to organic farming: a net present value analysis in the East Mau Catchment,Nakuru, Kenya

This paper discusses the economic potential in terms of income changes that may result from conversion to low-external-input agriculture (LEIA) organic farming in a Kenya’s catchment area. A spreadsheet model applying the gross margin and net present value analysis was developed to estimate economic returns to labour and land of alternative smallholder cropping systems in the East Mau Catchment. The income and costs over a 10-year horizon associated with current cropping practices of a typical farm household cultivating 1.12 hectares of maize–bean intercrop, Irish potato, carrots, tomatoes, cabbages and kales mix were characterized based on field work conducted in 2008–2010. An “average” smallholder LEIA organic farm was simulated based on the conventional one, and its income discounted. A comparison was then made of the two farm types. Results indicate annual net present value returns to cropped land average Ksh 21,878/ha ($ 267/ha) and Kshs 22,561/ha (€ 275/ha) in 2010 values for conventional and prototype LEIA organic farming systems, respectively. Net returns are particularly sensitive to crop yields and price and cost of fertilizers and seeds. Further efforts should be made to provide an economic analysis of other LEIA organic farming practices such as composting, double digging and agroforestry in terms of additional labour costs resultant. The model can be extended to build more scenarios on the role of price premiums. Additionally, further research should be done to exploit the socio-demographic factors affecting the adoption of low-external-input systems.     

Heterogeneous impact of agricultural support policies: evidence from Turkey

Agricultural support policies, which increase production to excessive levels, have been heavily criticized for their distortional effects on farmers’ decisions. High input consumption, which harms the environment, and the distribution of supports, which causes income inequality among farmers, are also the other factors that economists criticize these support policies. However, in recent years, the use and dependence on production and land have been increasing globally due to fears of food insecurity in several countries. In this article, the impact of a support policy on cotton farmers’ land in Turkey is evaluated using a detailed farm-level micro dataset. We use the dynamic panel model to consider the production dynamics, unobservable individual heterogeneity, and the endogeneity of the support variable. Our results show that considering the support variable as endogenous significantly increased its impact on farmers’ land. A farmer’s past land allocation decisions also affected their current lands holdings. However, the results varied considerably between regions and between different land sizes. Therefore, the findings show the importance of heterogeneity in the impact of support policies. We conclude that due to the heterogeneous impact of support policies, it might not be possible to discuss the effect of support policies using an average estimate applicable for all farmers. Therefore, a different support policy considering regional characteristics or farm size is necessary to obtain the desired policy outcomes.

     

Linking agricultural adaptation strategies,food security and vulnerability: evidence from West Africa

Adaptation strategies to reduce smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability and seasonality are needed given the frequency of extreme weather events predicted to increase during the next decades in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in West Africa. We explored the linkages between selected agricultural adaptation strategies (crop diversity, soil and water conservation, trees on farm, small ruminants, improved crop varieties, fertilizers), food security, farm household characteristics and farm productivity in three contrasting agro-ecological sites in West Africa (Burkina Faso, Ghana and Senegal). Differences in land area per capita and land productivity largely explained the variation in food security across sites. Based on land size and market orientation, four household types were distinguished (subsistence, diversified, extensive, intensified), with contrasting levels of food security and agricultural adaptation strategies. Income increased steadily with land size, and both income and land productivity increased with degree of market orientation. The adoption of agricultural adaptation strategies was widespread, although the intensity of practice varied across household types. Adaptation strategies improve the food security status of some households, but not all. Some strategies had a significant positive impact on land productivity, while others reduced vulnerability resulting in a more stable cash flow throughout the year. Our results show that for different household types, different adaptation strategies may be ‘climate-smart’. The typology developed in this study gives a good entry point to analyse which practices should be targeted to which type of smallholder farmers, and quantifies the effect of adaptation options on household food security. Subsequently, it will be crucial to empower farmers to access, test and modify these adaptation options, if they were to achieve higher levels of food security.     

China’s Grain for Green policy and farm dynamics: simulating household land-use responses

Analyzing the interaction between environmental policies and farmers’ responses to them is an important dimension to understand regional agro-ecosystem sustainability. We examine land-use outcomes of perhaps the largest government-planned rural reforestation program in the history of humankind, China’s “Grain for Green” (GFG) policy from 1999 to 2006. Specifically, we simulate household responses to the GFG policy in Western China’s Shaanxi Province, a region experiencing acute climate and land change-related environmental degradation. We develop a “farmer group decision-making model” to simulate the probability of land-use change. Elevation, slope, and farm household characteristics emerge as key factors influencing farmers’ land-use decisions and subsequent land-use patterns. Land reversion and abandonment in the study area have been significantly affected by the GFG program. Policy recommendations suggest potential avenues to enhance the effectiveness of the GFG program and to improve the efficient use of under-used farmland. Results may help inform the Chinese government as it crafts policy guiding a coupled rural migration and reforestation program of unprecedented scale.     

Research of the Response of Ecosystem to LUCC in Miyun County,Beijing: Based on Ecosystem Services Valuation

Abstract

Miyun County, located in the northeast of Chinese capital Beijing, was underwent remarkable variations in land use in recent years. This paper aimed to detect changes in land use of Miyun from 1997 to 2005, and to qualify the response of ecosystem to LUCC based on ecosystem services valuation. With two-periods TM images, we got land use change data, and then ecosystem services values were calculated using ecosystem services valuation coefficients proposed by Chinese scholar Xie Gaodi. Results showed that water area, farm land and unused land decreased while residential land, forest land, grassland and orchard land increased during the study period. The loss of ESV was RMB 206 million and the main reason was the decrease of water area and farm land area. As for spatial variation, there were most dramatically land use change and ESV decline in reservoir ecological protection region. The coefficient sensitivity analysis indicates that valuation coefficients used in the study are suitable and results are reasonable. The driving forces of ESV loss were rapid population growth and economic development. More work should be done to make eco-environment stay healthy.     

太湖流域湖泊水环境问题、成因与对策

综合分析了太湖流域存在的的湖泊水环境问题,主要表现为水质全面恶化、洪涝灾害加剧、湖泊生态系统与生物资源破坏和底质污染严重。造成湖泊水环境问题的自然因素与流域地势平缓、亚热带季风气候和地面沉降有关;人为因素如围垦、污水排入湖泊、过量使用农药化肥和湖泊淤积加剧了太湖流域水环境问题的发展。针对当前存在的湖泊水环境问题,提出湖泊水环境整治对策是：树立可持续发展观念,加强流域污染源的控制;重视湖泊水环境的科学研究;加强湖泊水环境水资源的规划与管理;因地制宜地实施湖泊水环境整治工程。     

Exploring the linkages between river water chemistry and watershed characteristics using GIS-based catchment and locality analyses

A typology of land characteristics for the Humber catchment in central/eastern England is identified in relation to land use, hydrology and demographic, topographic and geological characteristics, using GIS and statistical analyses. Empirical relationships between land characteristics and water quality were examined in relation to the spatial variability in water quality across the Humber catchment. Analyses of relationships between land characteristics and water quality were undertaken at two hierarchical scales: (1) individual catchments and (2) localities of 10 km radius draining to each sampling site. The importance of urban and agricultural sources was identified, together with a hydrological component linked to dilution of point source inputs and mobilisation of specific sediment-associated contaminants in higher-energy (higher-flow) environments. High-solubility (dissolved) chemical determinands (such as B, Cl and SO₄), which undergo conservative transport through the river network, show the strongest linkages with land characteristics at the catchment scale. Cr, Zn and Ca show stronger correlations with land characteristics at the locality rather than the catchment scale, indicating that the concentrations of these determinands are more closely linked to the availability of localised sources. This work provides a starting point for investigating how changes in land use and management of drainage basins might impact river water quality at the regional scale and fluxes to the coastal zone, by providing a mechanism for examining linkages between regional-scale land characteristics and river water quality. The next step requires development of the approach within a more rigorous statistical framework and the extension of the regional analysis within a wider national and international context. Electronic Publication     

丹江口库区化肥施用控制与农田生态补偿标准

为保护丹江口水库水质,减少氮、磷流入水体,可考虑以生态补偿方式鼓励农民将部分土地休耕或退耕。利用样本调查的农户微观数据,估计了丹江口库区主要农作物小麦、玉米、水稻产量与化肥施用量的经验函数,计算了库区农田平均生态补偿标准。结果是:基于2008年的生产条件、技术水平和市场价格,种植小麦须补偿259.69元/亩,玉米须补偿331.64元/亩,水稻须补偿567.31元/亩。为减少补偿过程中的政府强制行为和信息租金,可考虑将农户土地按历年产量进行评估后分成多个等级,每一等级支付该等级土地最高净收益。本文将每亩作物净收益即每亩劳动收入和地租作为农田生态补偿标准,这一计算标准是基于农民遭受的损失,属于保留效用,是农民谈判的起点。如果南水北调中线工程是有利可图的,可进一步将工程的部分净收益分配给维护生态系统、保护水质的库区农民,具体分配的份额则取决于当地农民的谈判力。     

农户对高产农业技术扩散的生态环境影响感知实证

农民生态环境感知对促进农民自觉环境保护行为和农村两型社会建设具有重要作用。通过对湖南省洞庭湖湿地水稻主产区6个乡镇的调查,将农户生态影响感知具体化为土壤、水源、身体健康和水稻4个方面的感知,借助定量分析建立了农户综合环境感知指数,研究农民对以化学农业为代表的高产农业技术扩散的生态环境影响感知,并运用Tobit模型探讨了影响农户生态影响感知的主要因素。结果表明:农民已经意识到以石化农业为代表的高产农业技术扩散带来的不利影响,尽管他们的意识还只限于一些看得见的因素如土壤肥力、捕鱼量和健康问题,对于看不见的影响的感知还很薄弱。以化学农业为代表的高产农业技术采用的水平和持续时间直接决定了人们对于不利影响的感知。提高收入水平与教育水平、强化农业技术推广能提升农民生态环境感知,而农田水利基础设施建设和土壤肥力对农户环境感知有复杂的影响关系。     

Life satisfaction approach to farmers’ compensation for land acquisition: empirical study from the suburbs of Wuhan City

Farmers’ compensation for land acquisition is not only critical to increasing their income and to playing a pivotal role in maintaining rural stability, but also to the promotion of sustainable land use. Based on analysis of Chinese land acquisition policy under the Land Management Law, which provides principles or guidelines for determining compensation according to agricultural land use in regard to farmers’ previous quality of life, the Life Satisfaction Approach is introduced in this article to evaluate farmers’ compensation for land acquisition. Employing data from a questionnaire survey on 346 farming households in Wuhan Suburbs, this article examined the influence of farmland on farmers’ life satisfaction and evaluated the level of compensation for land acquisition. Results show that farmland has a significantly positive impact on life satisfaction, which fell by 0.033 on a five-point scale following a reduction farmland by of 1 mu. Respondents were willing to accept approximately RMB 3066.44 annual household income for the loss of 1 mu farmland; the level of compensation after discounting by 6.2% is RMB 750,000 per hectare. It was found in a further comparative study that the level of farmers’ compensation for land acquisition is decidedly low, and it was also shown that their compensation standards, as well as the actual compensation, could be substantially improved by expanding economic compensation to non-economic compensation to embody farmland multifunction in terms of production and non-production against farmers’ previous quality of life. This article proposes a compensation model that enriches the content of land acquisition compensation, extends the current literature on measuring compensation, and provides economic theory bases for increasing compensation standards and improving policies related to land acquisition. We consider that if this compensation model is applied, it could raise the cost of land acquisition and improve usage of land, reduce the speed of rural–urban land conversion, and improve farmers’ well-being.     

Biodiversity provides ecosystem services: scientific results versus stakeholders’ knowledge

Exploiting the complementarities between biological components in agricultural systems is presented as a solution to increase food production and decrease environmental problems. This amounts to maximizing the ecosystem services (i.e., the benefits human obtain from ecosystems) provided by biodiversity at the expense of the disservices (i.e., the nuisances human obtain from ecosystems). In recent years, science has produced significant results supporting this strategy, but their application in the field is dependent on stakeholders’ knowledge. This article therefore addresses two questions: What do stakeholders know about the services and disservices provided by biodiversity? Does this knowledge agree with scientific results? We address these questions by combining a literature review of 39 scientific articles and interviews with 8 farmers and 3 farm advisors in France. Scientific results and stakeholders’ knowledge both indicate that within- and between-field plant biodiversity have a positive effect on the provision of ecosystem services. For instance, it can reduce inputs and give higher and more stable plant production. It may even improve farmers’ management conditions. However, our work revealed two gaps in our scientific knowledge. Only 3 scientific articles connected ecosystem services with plant biodiversity at the farm scale or between fields, while stakeholders did so for 43 % of the services they mentioned. Similarly, management services concerned about one-third of the services mentioned by stakeholders but were addressed in only 3 scientific articles. Stakeholders’ expertise can thus help us to prioritize research options in order to simultaneously fill scientific gaps and produce knowledge relevant to practice.     

Evolutionary social and biogeophysical changes in the Amazon,Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas

Policy-making in social-ecological systems increasingly looks to iterative, evolutionary approaches that can address the inherent complexity of interactions between human wellbeing, provision of goods, and the maintenance of ecosystem services. Here, we show how the analysis of available time-series in tropical delta regions over past decades can provide important insight into the social-ecological system dynamics in deltaic regions. The paper provides an exploratory analysis of the recent changes that have occurred in the major elements of three tropical deltaic social-ecological systems, such as demography, economy, health, climate, food, and water. Time-series data from official statistics, monitoring programmes, and Earth observation data are analysed to explore possible trends, slow and fast variables, and observed drivers of change in the Amazon, Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and Mekong deltas. In the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta zone, increasing gross domestic product and per capita income levels since the 1980s mirror rising levels of food and inland fish production. In contrast, non-food ecosystem services, such as water availability, water quality, and land stability appear to be deteriorating. In the Amazon delta, natural and anthropogenic perturbations are continuously degrading key ecosystem services, such as carbon storage in biomass and soils, the regulation of water balance, and the modulation of regional climate patterns. In the Mekong delta, rapid economic development, changing land-use practices, and salinity intrusion are progressively putting more pressure on the delivery of important provisioning services, such as rice and inland aquaculture production, which are key sources of staple food, farm incomes, and export revenue. Observed changes in many key indicators of ecosystem services point to a changing dynamic state and increased probability of systemic threshold transformations in the near future.     

土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响研究综述

土地利用/覆被变化是全球环境变化的重要组成部分和主要原因之一,不仅带来了地表结构的巨大变化,而且对生态系统服务也造成重要影响。土地利用变化和生态系统服务研究已成为国际上生态学和地理学等跨学科研究的热点之一。从土地利用变化和生态系统服务的概念及其影响因素分析入手,综述了土地利用面积变化、土地利用方式变化和土地利用空间格局变化等对生态系统服务的影响,归纳了土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响研究的主要方法和模型,分析了相关研究的不足,并提出了加强生态系统服务动态评估方法和时空动态评估模型的研究、强化土地利用变化对生态系统服务影响的生态学机制研究和注重土地利用变化下生态系统服务评估结果的集成应用研究等建议,以期对我国的土地利用变化与生态系统服务评估研究提供科学参考。