Characteristics and drivers of forest cover change in the post-socialist era in Croatia: evidence from a mixed-methods approach

Extensive forests in Croatia represent an important biological and economic resource in Europe. They are characterised by heterogeneity in forest management practices dating back to the socialist planned economy of the pre-1991 era. In this study we investigated the difference in rates of deforestation and reforestation in private- and state-owned forests during the post-socialist period and the causal drivers of change. The selected region of Northern Croatia is characterised by a high percentage of privately owned forests with minimal national monitoring and control. We used a mixed-methods approach which combines remote sensing, statistical modelling and a household-based questionnaire survey to assess the rates of forest cover change and factors influencing those changes. The results show that predominantly privately owned forests in Northern Croatia have recorded a net forest loss of 1.8 % during the 1991–2011 period, while Croatia overall is characterised by a 10 % forest cover increase in predominantly state-owned forests. Main factors influencing forest cover changes in private forests are slope, altitude, education structure, population age and population density. The results also show that the deforestation in private forests is weakening overall, mostly due to the continuation of the de-agrarisation and de-ruralisation processes which began during socialism.     

Using multitemporal Landsat TM imagery to establish land use pressure induced trends in forest and woodland cover in sections of the Soutpansberg Mountains of Venda region, Limpopo Province, South Africa

Globally, tropical forests are being perturbed by human activity. Tropical vegetation constitutes some of the largest terrestrial carbon stocks against the build up of greenhouse gases. In this paper, a local-scale case study utilising remote sensing methodology in estimating forest loss is presented, for a section of tropical South Africa’s Soutpansberg Mountains where land use pressure threatens some of the last remaining indigenous forests. Landsat TM images from October 1990, August 2000 and September 2006 were used, together with municipality level demographic data. Hybrid image classification techniques distinguished forest cover on the images, which were classified into vegetation density categories. About 20% of forest and woodland cover was lost in the 16-year analysis period, mainly due to pine and eucalyptus plantation and residential housing expansions. The local-scale key drivers behind the deforestation are examined.     

Understanding deforestation in montane and lowland forests of the Colombian Andes

Colombian Andean forests cover nine million ha. These forests provide an informative case study of mountain deforestation in South America. They are surrounded by tropical lowland forests, and they host most of the country’s human population. This study evaluates the relative importance of human and natural variables in deforestation of the Colombian Andes between 1985 and 2005 using remote sensing methods, geographic information system (GIS) technology and general linear models (GLM). The following factors affected the annual deforestation in the region positively: forced population migration, unsatisfied basic needs, economic activity, crops, pastures, illicit crops, protected areas and slope. Factors having a negative effect were tenure of small land parcels, road density, water scarcity and mean temperature. The results of this study also provide insight into the differences between the dynamics of lowland forests and those of montane forests. Montane forests had a lower annual rate of deforestation than did forests in the lowlands. Socio-economic, demographic and biophysical factors explain overall deforestation rates for the region. However, when altitude variation is taken into account, intraregional differences in the Andes become evident. Deforestation processes differ between those areas adjacent to the high Andean valleys where most of the country’s population concentrates and those areas in the tropical lowlands north, west and east of the Andean chain. Differences between lowland and montane forest dynamics are due partly to the accessibility of forests and differences in wealth and economic activities. In montane forests, deforestation is positively influenced by economic activity, the presence of protected areas and higher slopes. Deforestation in montane forests is negatively affected by tenure of small land parcels, road density, water scarcity and mean temperature. Lowland deforestation rates are more closely related to rural population, pasture percentage, crops, protected areas and temperature. Our results suggest that montane forests appear to be in a more advanced stage of colonisation and economic development, whereas lowland forests are closer to the colonisation frontier and to rapidly growing colonist populations. This study reinforces the idea that although the most common tropical drivers of deforestation are found in the Andes, these drivers operate differently when intraregional differences are considered.     

Scenarios and story lines: drivers of land use change in southern Mexico

The study presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, environmental policies, socioeconomic drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of drivers of LUCC, and quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are recognized, and detrimental policies and policy options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are acknowledged in a base line, variant and alternative scenario. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation actions were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction in natural forests, while the local socioeconomic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario, these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. The alternative scenario further addresses policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development, but because of the time lag of implementation, still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation, and sustainable management, including strategies for reforming agricultural systems, agricultural and forestry policies and trade, land tenure and livelihood risk management.     

A pattern for partnership between LMDH and Perhutani to enhance local community prosperity and preserve the forest: a case study at RPH Besowo,Kediri Regency,Indonesia

The deforestation in Indonesia is already alarming. One of the strategies used by the government to overcome forest deforestation is social forestry. This program is called PHBM (Pengelolaan Hutan Bersama Masyarakat/Joint Forest Management) which is basically a partnership program. This study aims at describing the partnership program between a local organization (i.e. LMDH) and a government unit (i.e. RPH of Perhutani) within the PHBM program. The objectives of this study are to (a) describe the model of partnerships between LMDH and RPH Besowo for sustainable forest management and local community empowerment; (b) determine the contribution of the forest to the national economy and rural household income; and (c) determine the obstacles commonly found in Besowo forest that have to be faced during the implementation of the partnerships. The study shows that with good partnership between these two units, the prosperity of the local community can be enhanced and the forest preservation can be maintained. The model of the partnerships in this particular area in Indonesia is expected to be applicable as well in other rural areas in Indonesia, as well as in other developing countries.     

Increasing tree cover while losing diverse natural forests in tropical Hainan,China

To protect biodiversity and improve environmental conditions, China has invested billions of dollars in reforestation and payments for ecosystem service programs. Here, we examine the Sloping Land Conversion Program, the largest such program in the world and found that after 13 years of implementation at our study site, it has had negative impacts on natural tropical forests. GIS and remote sensing techniques revealed that both natural forests and natural shrub and grasslands were replaced by non-native monocultural plantations on Hainan Island, China, a key tropical biodiversity hotspot. Under current Chinese policy, these plantations are classified simply as “forests”, with the assumption that they are equivalent to natural forests. This lack of a distinction in forest quality has led to substantial deforestation and plantation expansion, including encroachment into protected areas on Hainan. Additional social and economic drivers of these changes were identified by examining the participants in this program and their actions. Without a new ecologically based definition of forests and new goals for reforestation, such programs designed to improve ecosystem services, and forest quality may actually threaten remaining natural forests and other vegetation types in Hainan and in other areas of mainland China.     

Co-Partnership in Forest Management: The Gwira-Banso Joint Forest Management Project in Ghana

The involvement of local communities, as well as the private sector and the government in forest management is now an important principle of tropical forestry policy and practice and a major component of most international forestry aid programmes. This paper present an analysis on the Joint Forest Management Project initiated by two timber companies (Ghana Primewood Products Ltd and Dalhoff Larsen & Horneman) in collaboration with local people in Gwira-Banso of Ghana. Conditions required for enhancing responsibility for and commitment to local forest management, and for an effective local participatory process were also analysed. The study began with the premise that incentives and good communication will enhance participation in joint forest management.The assumption was valid and the results from the survey showed that five broad issues prioritised by respondents to be essential for co-partnership in forest management are communication, financial support, tree planting, multiple land use and benefit sharing. The Project enjoys a great deal of support from the local community, but a number of factors make the continued support of local people a challenging task, including questions of immediate livelihood sources and tenure arrangements. Although this participatory forest management has been implemented over a relatively short period, there is evidence that government and private sectors can successfully involve local people in sustainable management of the forests.     

Agricultural adjustment,population dynamics and forests redistribution in a subtropical watershed of NW Argentina

Patterns of land-use and land-cover change are usually grouped into one of two categories defined by the dominant trend: (1) deforestation resulting from expanding agriculture and (2) forest expansion, usually related to the abandonment of marginal lands. At regional scale, however, both processes can occur simultaneously even in the absence of net change. Given the focus on net change, such redistribution of agricultural and natural and seminatural lands has been generally overlooked. The interaction between agriculture modernization, human demography and complex topographic gradients of northwestern Argentina has resulted in processes of both forest recovery and deforestation, thus providing the opportunity to analyze patterns and driving forces of land-cover redistribution. We analyzed 20 years (1986–2006) of land-cover change in a subtropical watershed in relation to topographic and demographic variables. Although net forest change represented <1 %, forests redistribution affected 7 % of forest lands. There was a consistent geographic segregation of deforestation and forest recovery, with forests expanding over steep highlands and agriculture expanding over lowland irrigated areas. Population trends were not associated to forest expansion in lowlands but they explained 32 % of forest recovery in highlands. Highland forest expansion and lowland deforestation, respectively, imply conservation opportunities for humid montane forests and the environmental services they provide (e.g., watershed conservation) and threats for the conservation of dry forests and its biodiversity. Our study exemplifies the importance of land-use redistribution (rather than net change) with relevant environmental consequences at regional scale.     

Modeling spatio-temporal change patterns of forest cover: a case study from the Himalayan foothills (India)

The present study used temporal remote sensing data for 1990, 2001 and 2006 to assess spatio-temporal patterns of forest cover changes in Shiwalik range of the Himalaya, Dehradun forest division. Forests are innately associated to human well-being. However, with the increasing anthropogenic activities, deforestation has increased. Quantitative change analysis of the forest cover for the past two decades provides valuable insight into the forest conservation vis-à-vis anthropogenic activities in the region. Spatio-temporal datasets along with biotic and abiotic variables provide opportunities to model the forest cover change further. The present study investigates forest cover change and predicts status of forest cover in the Dehradun forest division. Land Change Modeller (LCM) was used to predict status of forest cover for 2010 and 2015 using current disturbance scenarios. Comparing actual LULC of 2006 with the predicted LULC of 2006 validated change prediction model and agreement was 61.03%. The forested areas are getting degraded due to anthropogenic activities, but deforestation/degradation does not contribute much in expanding urban area. Agricultural areas and fallow lands are the main contributors to increased urban area. The study demonstrates the potential of geospatial tools to understand spatio-temporal forest cover change and generate the future scenarios.     

From economic to environmental sustainability: the forest management debate in 20th century Finland and Sweden

The issues of sustainability, efficiency, and profitability in private forestry dominated debate on Finnish and Swedish forest policy throughout the 20th century. The management and utilization of private forests have been significant for these countries since more than half of productive forest land has been owned by families. Forests have also played an important role in Finland’s and Sweden’s national economies. There was however no consensus among forest owners and forestry experts—forest scientists and forestry authorities—about the methods of achieving forestry sustainability and profitability, particularly in the early 1900s. This article focuses on the types of argument on which perceptions of good forest management were based, and the reasons for their use. The article also explores how disagreements and occasional open conflicts between private forest owners and forest authorities were solved, and what kind of regulative means were developed to avoid such differences. There are three main reasons for making a case study of Finland and Sweden: Firstly, the forest sector has played an important role in their national economies, secondly, the objectives and content of their forestry laws are quite similar, and thirdly, the tradition of family forest ownership has remained strong. The debate on good forest management in this period revolves around the two silvicultural paradigms: even-aged and uneven-aged systems. The former concerns formal, scientific knowledge of forest management, and the latter takes a traditional approach.     

Application of a tri-capital community resilience framework for assessing the social–ecological system sustainability of community-based forest management in the Philippines

This study proposes and empirically tests a framework that integrates the concepts of community resilience and social–ecological system (SES) resilience through community forestry case studies. The framework provides a possible approach for assessing community resilience based on the development and allocation of socio-cultural, economic, and natural capital of individual households within a given forest community. Furthermore, aspects of SES resilience and system dynamics are used to define the potential state thresholds of community resilience. This exploratory attempt to quantify community resilience, using the proposed framework, aims to advance understanding of the conceptual overlaps of SES and community resilience as applied to forestry management. We consider community forestry groups as SES examples in which the community is an important stakeholder in managing natural forest capital. We selected pioneer communities under the community-based forest management (CBFM) Program in the Philippines as our case studies. We found that, on average, CBFM group members demonstrated moderate levels of resilience according to their acquired levels of capital. Although economic capital remained the weakest capital, the CBFM program had a positive effect in increasing the socio-cultural and natural capital of an entire community.     

Land change in the southern Yucatán: case studies in land change science

The southern Yucatán Peninsular Region project was designed from the outset as an integrative, multidisciplinary program of study examining tropical deforestation in the largest track of seasonal tropical forest remaining in Mexico and in which smallholder agriculture and a major biosphere reserve are juxtaposed in regard to land uses and covers. Treating land as a coupled human–environment system, the project joins the remote sensing, environmental, social, and modeling sciences in a way that is now recognized as land change science. This paper introduces the project, the study region, and six papers that explore some of the coupled system dynamics in the region. These include the sub-regional variation in deforestation, the pan-regional adoption or anticipation of cattle ranching, the emergence of divergent household agricultural and overall livelihood strategies, the roles of cultural and household histories in agricultural livelihood choices, the temporal intensification of swidden cultivation and its implications for forest species, and carbon stocks across cultivation units, including a new econometric modeling application to forecast changes in these stocks.     

Dependence on forest resources and tropical deforestation in Ghana

In Ghana, forests provide many products on which the local population subsists. However, these resources are depleting due to a variety of factors including agricultural expansion and over-exploitation of forest resources. This paper presents an analysis of the level of local dependence on forest resources and its implications for forest management in Ghana. The paper also outlines the causes of continuing deforestation in the studied region from the perspective of the local residents and discusses what role they could play in addressing the problem. The aim is to share more light on the current causes of deforestation and make suggestions for improved community-based forest management practices that could help to reduce deforestation. Primary data was collected through personal interviews and focus group discussions with 431 household heads randomly selected from three Forest Districts in Ghana. The survey showed that income from agriculture constituted 60% of the average total rural household income. Forest income provided 38% of total household income, and off-farm income 2%. The four most highly ranked causes of deforestation are poverty-driven agriculture, lack of alternative rural wage employment other than farming, household population levels, and conflict in traditional land practices. This shows a shift in the view of local people who in the past were quick to blame logging companies and government policies for deforestation. The majority of the respondents depended on wild animals like snail, bush meat, wild honey and wild and cultivated vegetables. Given the reasons for deforestation, much thought needs to go into agroforestry practices (e.g. snail farming, bee keeping, fish farming, and vegetable production) in efforts to reduce deforestation, which are currently less promoted. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to spatial policies of land occupation, size and year of establishment of properties, accessibility measures and soil fertility. The analysis was made based on remote sensing data and household level data gathered with a questionnaire. Both types of analyses indicate that the highest level of total deforestation is found inside agrarian projects, especially in those established more than 20 years ago. Even though deforestation rates are similar inside and outside official settlements, inside agrarian projects forest depletion can exceed 50% at the property level within 10–14 years after establishment. The data indicate that both small-scale and medium to large-scale farmers contribute to deforestation processes in Rondônia State encouraged by spatial policies of land occupation, which provide better accessibility to forest fringes where soil fertility and forest resources are important determinants of location choice.     

基于随机森林和Sentinel-2影像数据的低山丘陵区土地利用分类——以重庆市江津区李市镇为例

精准的土地利用信息是土地资源监测和管理的基础。为提高低山丘陵区域的土地利用分类精度，选取重庆市江津区李市镇为研究案例，基于随机森林方法，以Sentinel-2影像数据和地形因子为数据源，提取3种变量（传统遥感数据，红边遥感数据和地形因子），合计23个特征指标，构建3个具有不同输入变量的组合模型，以提取研究区土地利用信息，分析变量的重要性。结果表明：（1）传统遥感数据模型中顺序添加红边遥感数据和地形因子，总体分类精度分别为86.54%，87.19%，88.61%；Kappa系数分别为 0.800 9，0.810 2，0.831 4；（2）对模型精度有重要影响的特征指标依次是波段B2(Blue)，B4(Red)，B3(Green)，改进归一化差异水体指数(MNDWI)和波段B5(Vegetation Red Edge 1)；(3）基于随机森林的遥感数据和地形因子的组合方法，是获取研究区高精度土地利用信息的一种有效手段。研究成果可以为地形复杂区域的土地利用分类提供参考。     

Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

The Use of Remote Sensing and GIS in the Sustainable Management of Tropical Coastal Ecosystems

The sustainable use and management of important tropical coastal ecosystems (mangrove forests, seagrass beds and coral reefs) cannot be done without understanding the direct and indirect impacts of man. The ecosystem's resilience and recovery capacity following such impacts must be determined. The efficacy of mitigation measures must also be considered. Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) are excellent tools to use in such studies. This paper reviews the state of the art and application of these tools in tropical coastal zones, and illustrates their relevance in sustainable development. It highlights a selected number of remote sensing case-studies on land cover patterns, population structure and dynamics, and stand characteristics from South-East Asia, Africa and South-America, with a particular emphasis on mangroves. It further shows how remote sensing technology and other scientific tools can be integrated in long-term studies, both retrospective and predictive, in order to anticipate degradation and to take mitigating measures at an early stage. The paper also highlights the guidelines for sustainable management that can result from remote sensing and GIS studies, and identifies existent gaps and research priorities.There is a need for more comprehensive approaches that deal with new remote sensing technologies and analysis in a GIS-environment, and that integrate findings collected over longer periods with the aim of prediction. It is also imperative to collect and integrate data from different disciplines. These are essential in the spirit of sustainable development and management, particularly in developing countries, which are often more vulnerable to environmental degradation.     

On Sustainable Development of Social Forestry in Bangladesh: Experiences from Sal (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Shorea Robusta</Emphasis>) Forests

Sustainability in forestry is a complex amalgam of trade-offs among its various dimensions and there is no easy route to achieve sustainable development. It is important that policy process and implementation strategy of these policies should be based on sound information about these trade-offs. There is a growing consensus amongst key forest decision-makers in Bangladesh that traditional forestry is needed to make the transition to more sustainable forestry, which is likely to involve local people in forest management. As a result, the government has initiated a social forestry program from 1981 with the assistance of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) grant and operated mainly in Sal forest areas. The most important objective of this program is to protect, manage, and develop forests in a sustainable way by involving local communities. Although several studies have focused on the management issues of social forestry, none of these studies has evaluated the indicators of sustainable social forestry. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the criteria of sustainable development of social forestry in Bangladesh. The study is based on primary cross-sectional data collected using the multistage stratified sampling technique. In total, 581 social forestry farmers were selected randomly and interviewed using a pre-tested questionnaire. The study evaluated some important components of sustainable development and identified the following conditions of social forestry in Bangladesh:(i) almost all the components of sustainable development of social forestry, although not at the aspiration level, were at good condition;(ii) participants were interested and committed to work with Forest Department in developing social forestry;(iii) they had been utilizing both hard and soft technology in practicing social forestry, although there exists ample scope of development;(iv) income of participants after involving in social forestry had increased, although not at satisfactory level; and(v) process of producing social and material goods had been under progress.However, there exist plenty of scopes for sustainable social forestry development through improving the sustainable development components more carefully.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Attributing changes in land cover using independent disturbance datasets: a case study of the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

Detailed observations of natural and anthropogenic disturbance events that impact forest structure and the distribution of carbon are essential to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon pools and the associated emissions and removals of greenhouse gasses. Recent advances in remote sensing approaches have resulted in annual and decadal estimates of land-cover change derived from observations using broad-scale moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250 m–1 km imagery. These land-use change estimates, however, are often not attributed directly to a cause or activity and are not well validated, especially in tropical areas. Knowledge of the type of disturbance that caused the observed land-cover changes is important, however, for the quantification of the associated impacts on ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we provide estimates of the amount of forest land-cover change in a Mexican forested region and propose an approach for attributing the cause of the observed changes to the underlying disturbance driver. To do so, we collate geospatial and remote sensing data from a variety of sources to summarize statistics about the major disturbances within the Yucatan Peninsula, an “early action” region for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation, from 2005 to 2010. We combine the datasets to develop rules to estimate the likely disturbances that caused the observed land-cover changes based on their spatially explicit location. Finally, we compare our observed disturbance rates to those detected using classified land-cover data derived from MODIS.     

林业生产性服务能促进农户林地规模经营吗?--基于林地流入视角的实证分析

厘清林业生产性服务对农户林地规模经营的影响,可为盘活集体林区林地资源、促进家庭林业发展提供决策参考。为考察林业生产性服务对林地规模经营的影响,首先构建了考虑林业生产性服务及林地规模的农户生产模型,通过理论分析后提出假设:林业生产性服务投入增加,将促进农户增加林地要素投入,即林业生产性服务对农户林地规模经营有正向影响。其次,基于福建500份经营商品林农户调查数据,利用Double-Hurdle模型及工具变量处理选择性偏差、遗漏变量及联立因果等引起的内生性问题,实证分析林业生产性服务对农户林地规模经营的影响。结果发现:不同类型的林业生产性服务对农户林地规模经营影响存在差异。其中,林业信贷服务对农户林地规模经营有正向影响,正规信贷与非正规信贷分别使农户林地流入概率提升19.6%、15.9%,使农户林地流入规模分别扩大66.8%、38.5%。林业物资与技术服务仅在是否流入林地阶段对农户林地规模经营有正向影响,使农户林地流入概率提升8.9%。林业劳动力服务仅在林地流入规模阶段对农户林地规模经营有正向影响,使得农户林地流入规模扩大66.9%。林业销售服务由于买方垄断特征对农户林地规模经营有负向影响,使农户林地流入概率降低12.3%,使农户林地流入规模缩减73.2%。因而,政府应有针对地激励和规范各类林业生产性服务发展,以更好地服务于集体林区家庭林业发展。