邓楠理事长在中国可持续发展研究会2007年学术年会上的致辞

各位代表、各位来宾： 大家好! 首先，我代表中国可持续发展研究会对参加2007年学术年会的嘉宾、专家与学者表示热烈的欢迎，向多年来支持和致力于研究会工作的各界领导、各位同仁表示衷心的感谢!     

沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究——以上海浦东新区为例

沿海城市在全球发展中具有重要的战略地位，然而特殊的地理位置和高度集中的人口及财富也决定了其面临灾害具有较高的脆弱性，即同等灾害强度下，沿海城市遭遇自然灾害时的人口伤亡更多、经济损失更大。从灾害系统承灾体的角度，分析影响灾害脆弱性的基础设施、城市形态与结构和灾害管理体制等5个方面，顺应脆弱性评价定量化的趋势，依据一定的原则，不分灾种，面对区域和人群，选取代表性指标尝试构建了沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性的评价指标体系，利用AHP法对该区域相应指标的权重进行确定，建立了脆弱性模型，并在收集和标准化数据的基础上，以上海市浦东开发区为例进行了实证分析。结果证明，模拟结果与实际情况基本吻合，可以为沿海城市防灾减灾提供科科学依据，有一定的参考价值。     

用水户参与灌溉管理模式运行机制与绩效实证分析

我国是一个水资源非常短缺的国家。推行用水户参与灌溉管理（SIDD）模式是解决这一难题的重要措施之一。SIDD管理模式运行机制可以从产权制度安排、运营制度安排、激励制度安排、组织制度安排等进行分析，其运行绩效体现在用水机制、管理方式、交易成本降低等方面。结合江苏皂河灌区管理体制改革，分析了SIDD管理模式的运行机制、绩效及存在的问题。为完善这一管理模式．主要的建议是：制订相关的规章制度，使农户广泛参与；建立多元化的投入机制．拓宽资金来源渠道；遵循市场经济运作机制，深化农业水价改革；明确政府职能。加强指导、服务和监管。     

乡村道路收益评估分析

乡村道路建设对于农村的经济发展、降低贫困等具有重要意义,对于如何评价乡村道路收益一直以来都存在着争议。传统的成本-效益分析方法具体来说有消费者剩余方法、生产者剩余方法等,但是由于这些方法都存在共同的缺陷,即不适合衡量交通流量小的地区乡村道路收益,对乡村道路收益的衡量依然存在低估的问题,引起了诸多学者的批评。本文通过构建新的计量经济学方法,利用对湖北农村家庭的实际调查数据,发现乡村道路建设可以有效地节约农村家庭交通成本、提高男性和女性劳动力的农业工资水平、提高学龄儿童的入学率、降低农业和非农业生产投入产品的价格等,对农村家庭具有重要的即时和长期的正向利益影响。     

Application of optimal harvesting decision model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy

This paper firstly extends the single period forest optimal harvesting decision model to infinite periods,in order to indicate how to determine the optimal rotation period aimed at maximizing forest revenue in all directions when repeat planting and harvesting trees on the same plot of earth till infinite future.The study also analyzes the influence of discounted rates,timber price,harvesting costs,planting costs,and tax on the determination of optimal rotation period;and how the optimal rotation period will change when we introduce the factors of continuously rising timber price and ecological revenue.Secondly,the authors introduce the intergenerational equity principle into the above model to design a resource-exploiting mode which satisfies bom the dynamic efficiency principle and the intergenerational equity principle.Last but not least,the research applies the above model to the analysis of Chinese forestry economic policy and explains the economic theory of institutions such as Government Purchasing Ecological Forest,Tree Compensation,and Forestry Subsidization,which provides a necessary theoretical foundation for future application of these new institutions.Besides,in regard to mis theoretical framework,the authors analyze the necessity of the Natural Forest Protection and Grain for Green projects which are currently being implemented in China.We also point out the emphasis of work to insure the project sustainable and successful.Finally,the research discusses the enterprise’s incentive to over-the-quota harvesting and the government’s means of restricting such behavior,which highlights the fact mat improved supervision and higher penalties are helpful in restricting over-the-quota harvesting.     

Responses of food production systems to climate change:sensitivity and vulnerability

Climate warming has prolonged the optimization of crop-growing seasons,shortened actual growth periods,and changed crop-planting boundaries.It also has boosted crop yields in certain regions while compromising crop quality and affected the occurrence of meteorological disasters and pest diseases damage,which has resulted in reduction in grain yield.Crop production systems will evidence more sensitivity to climate change in future;for example,with an increase of 1°C in temperature,the average growth period will be shortened by 17 days for winter wheat and 7-8 days for maize and rice.Of course regional differences will exist.Climate change will threaten crop yield stability and affect crop quality.Vulnerability will be addressed in regard to extreme climatic events,which include reducing exposure and improving adaptive capacity,because the exposure of rain-fed agriculture is greater than that of irrigated agriculture.Therefore,we propose three suggestions to reduce the vulnerability of crop production systems to climate change.First,strengthen the evaluation capacity construction of sensitivity,which includes(1)refining and improving all types of evaluation indicator systems and models;(2)innovating and developing evaluation methods and tools;and(3)combining field observation and case studies,so that(1)the impact of climate change and sensitivity can be assessed scientifically;(2)uncertainty in the study can be identified and reduced;and(3)improved understanding of climate systems and their changes,climate change impact,and sensitivity will be achieved.Second,strengthen adaptive capacity construction for crop production systems,which includes(1)rebuilding existing farmland infrastructure to improve meteorological disaster defences;(2)adjusting agriculture structure and adopting new crop varieties with enhanced resistance;(3)popularizing water-saving technology and dry farming technology;and(4)further researching interdisciplinary theories and methods.Third,strengthen function construction for natural and social s     

Research on the development and planning of renewable energy in Tibet

With the rapid social and economic development of the Tibet Autonomous Region,the situation in regard to energy supply and demand is increasingly tense.Meanwhile,the development of renewable energy in Tibet has been given considerable practical significance by its peculiar ecological environment.Given the complementarity of renewable energies in Tibet,using the method of factor analysis,we derived four major factors:level of economic development,social development,industrial development,and energy endowment,which help to evaluate development conditions in different regions of Tibet.Treating these four factors equally,we used the hierarchical clustering method to determine the order of regional development.Thus we acquire a three-stage planning project for renewable energy.In the first stage,Lhasa plays a leading role in promoting the development of renewable energy,particularly that based on solar and wind energy.There are two phases in the second stage,the first being to simultaneously develop solar and wind energy in Xigaze and Nyingchi.The second is to develop solar and wind energy in accordance with the time of year in Qamdo,Nagqu,and Ali,with 1.145billion kWh electricity to be generated.The third stage is to develop energy production in Lhoka Prefecture,with 1.369billion kWh electricity to be generated.At the end of the three-stage project,consumption of available electricity will have reached 4.045 billion kwh,with major social and economic benefits.     

Simulating potential vegetation distribution in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau:A case study of Barkam County

The main objective of this study is to simulate the potential vegetation types on the basis of environmental parameters.The paper took Barkam County in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau as the study area.The vegetation distribution was mapped in 1994 and 2007 based on TM remote sensing images by object-oriented interpretation method.We overlaid the two maps to find out the vegetation patches which have not changed,and took them as stable types.Fifty per cent of the stable patches were randomly sampled to operate the logistic regression with related environmental parameters;others were used as test data of simulated results.Seven environmental parameters were mapped,including elevation,slope,aspect,surface curvature,solar radiation,temperature and precipitation,based on DEM data and meteorological site data by GIS technology.The relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables were quantified by logistic regression.The distribution probabilities of each vegetation type were calculated.Finally,the spatial distribution of potential vegetation was simulated.This research can provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and ecological construction in this area.     

经济增长下的渤海环境容量预测

据1999，2002—2005年渤海活性磷酸盐、石油类、无机氮的水质监测资料。采用箱式模型。估算渤海及各分区现状下及不同经济增长率下的环境容量预测值。估算结果显示．分污染物来看，各年份均是无机氮较大，石油类次之．活性磷酸盐较小；分区域来看。各年份各污染物均是渤海中部较大，辽东湾、渤海湾次之，莱州湾最小；从时间变化来看。除活性磷酸盐外。石油类和无机氯自2002年到2004年逐年减小。假设渤海污染物排入量随着经济增长每年增加5％。以达到环境容量极限值需要的年数来看。自2005年。分别在7年、4年、17年后渤海的石油类、活性磷酸盐、无机氮将达不到一类水质标准，50年、19年、37年后超过四类水质下环境容量极限值；假设随着经济增长污染物排海量每年增长10％，那么自2005年起。29年、13年和22年后三种污染物将超过四类水质下环境容量极限值。     

Study on Disturbances and Its Effects on Nature Reserves

1 INTRODUCTION Nature reserves are special regional ecological systems. They are the cornerstone for the protection of ecosystems on a global scale (Fuentes et al., 2000), and a necessary method to protect biological resource, species, and the diversity of the ecosystem (Zhang, L.Y., et al., 2002). Since the 1970s the research for designing, planning, and managing various kinds of nature reserves has seen rapid development. Many sorts of disturbance factors occurring in nature reserves, …     

物质流分析方法的理论及其应用研究

物质流分析既是发展循环经济重要的辅助手段，也是衡量循环经济发展水平的方法。目前，世界上的一些主要发达国家已经开展了物质流分析的研究与实践。我国物质流分析的研究尚处于起步阶段，特别是以城市为对象的区域物质流分析研究在我国尚处于起步和尝试阶段。为促进循环经济在我国的健康发展．应该结合我国实际，逐渐开展区（县）层面的物质流分析。本文在借鉴国外物质流分析的实践经验的基础上，以青岛市城阳区为例，运用物质流分析方法，首次对区（县）级行政区域进行了研究。此外，结合物质流分析结果，运用IPAT方程，建立了城阳区循环经济建设的指标体系，为其他地区实施区域层面物质流分析、建立循环经济建设指标体系提供了借鉴。研究表明．物质流分析对区域循环经济的规划建设具有重要意义。     

高科技污染问题及驱动力模型研究

高科技产生的污染包括产品生产、消费过程中及废弃时产生的污染。这些特点又加重了高科技的污染程度。高科技污染的各种特点，包括扩散快、产品回收难、污染类型多及隐蔽性强等。以江苏省高科技企业为例，研究企业隶属、资产组成以及经营能力和科技水平等企业性质指标与企业有毒有害原辅料消耗量的相关性，并做出高科技企业污染的驱动模型。根据所得研究结果，分析总结影响高科技企业有毒有害原辅料消耗量的主要因素，认为企业的性质间接作用于企业，最终形成了高科技污染。并据此提出治理高科技污染的建议，即完善污染治理法律体系、探索废旧产品回收途径、发展清洁生产技术、探索针对高科技企业的环境管理模式。     

土地利用“增长－控制”耦合机制分析

本文在分析土地利用变化过程的基础上,利用耦合系统原理,构建土地利用"增长-控制"系统;通过对湖北省市(州)的土地增长系统和土地控制系统的实证研究,得到各市(州)土地增长指数和土地控制指数在空间上的组合方式,确定湖北省土地利用发展的7种战略.研究表明,土地利用"增长-控制"耦合机制能够较为清晰地阐述地区土地利用变化的形成原因,有利于土地非农化、城市建设用地扩张等相关方面的研究,对于揭示土地利用变化和社会经济发展之间的关系能够提供一个较好的研究框架;本文对湖北土地利用发展模式的分类,符合湖北省土地利用的实际情况,文中针对各类地区提出不同的发展策略,可以促进地区土地利用系统向可持续、稳定的方向发展,同步提升土地增长系统和控制系统的发展水平.     

农作物秸秆资源调查与评价方法研究

我国作物秸秆数量大、种类多、分布广,是一种多用途可再生资源。由于缺乏统一的评价指标和调查方法,阻碍了秸秆综合利用进程。本文从总量、经济性、空间和时间分布等角度评价秸秆资源,建立农作物秸秆评价标准体系,将农户问卷调查与的农作物收获时直接采样测试草谷比等方法结合起来,提出了秸秆资源调查与评价范围、内容和方法。通过在实际调查中的应用,表明该方法可以指导我国作物秸秆资源的调查与评价工作,有利于我国秸秆综合利用进程。     

中国旅游度假区发展现状与趋势探讨

随着旅游产业由观光型向度假型的转化,中国蓬勃发展起一大批各级旅游度假区,其面积迥异、机制复杂、资源多样、市场结构偏于区域化,设施状况也存在很大不同。为了引导度假区发展,国家旅游局于2009年组织了大规模网上摸底调查,并对收集到的度假区数据从资源类型、市场结构、度假产品、服务设施、环境保护、社区协调等多个方面进行了系统分析。经分析发现,中国度假区发展现状存在热情高认识乱、有建设无规划、设施多个性差、节事多常规活动少、重管理轻服务等问题。基于以上调查分析,本文进一步预测未来度假市场将向保健康乐型度假、有主题度假及复合型度假发展,同时客源以散客自助为主;度假产品将向本土化智慧型、低设施高活动、人文深度融入型转化;度假区发展则应注重规划、突出主题、精细服务,同时重视社区协调与能力建设。     

稀缺资源的转换与经济学边界的拓展

自然资源、人力资源和人造资源是支撑经济系统的三大资源．随着世界人口的增加和人类经济活动范围的不断扩大。三类资源的相对稀缺程度逐渐发生了变化。从自然资源丰富、人造资源稀缺转变为人造资源相对丰富而自然资源相对甚至绝对稀缺的状态。这种转变对经济学研究的影响就是曾经作为经济系统外生变量的人口、自然资源逐步纳入经济分析框架成为经济系统的内生变量。经济学的边界随之拓展。     

农地整治项目投资分摊博弈机理研究——以政府和企业为例

投资主体、建设主体与受益主体不一致是导致我国农地整治项目效率偏低的根本原因,公私合作(PPP)模式是从制度层面提升我国农地整治项目效率的理想模式。本文首先界定了农地整治项目PPP模式,分析了PPP模式下农地整治项目的运行机制及其博弈关系,建立了农地整治项目投资的成本收益函数;然后以政府与农业产业化企业间的博弈为例,在探讨他们博弈要素的基础上构建了投资博弈模型,提出了二者理想的投资决策边界;最后用一个典型案例论证了本文的分析结果。研究结果表明,新增耕地面积和项目建设成本是影响农地整治项目效益发挥的主要因素。农地整治项目PPP模式顺利实施的条件是:当项目政府补贴较低时,企业投入高建设成本得到的支付不低于其保留支付。项目高效运行的条件是:当项目政府补贴较高时,企业投入低建设成本得到的支付不高于其保留支付;与投入低建设成本相比,企业选择高建设成本得到农地经营收益的增加值不小于其增加的成本值。     

企业环境力研究初探

环境问题已经成为当前阻碍经济发展的主要矛盾之一,企业如何提高应对环境的能力(环境力),有助于企业实现可持续发展,从而提高企业的价值。不同的企业面对环境问题的可能采取不同的策略,这与企业本身的环境力有重要的关系,本文试图分析企业环境力的含义与内容及其对企业的影响,从而有助于企业面对环境问题采取适当的对策。     

Study on the Balance of Agricultural Water and Land Resources on Ningxia Plain

Abstract

The article puts forward the process and means of regional water and land balance research, and then from two scenarios which are the balances under natural regulation and human intervention, calculated and analysed the balance between water and land on Ningxia Plain. For the balance under natural regulation named farmland water balance, using farmland water resource balance equation, the research estimated the monthly farmland water balance of 8 major crops for all of the 12 counties on Ningxia Plain in the period of 1960–2001; for the balance under human intervention, the research estimated land-use water balance equation of the counties in 2000, and calculated the balance between land use and water resources including irrigating water of all the 12 counties on Ningxia Plain. Results showed that ①precipitation can not meet the water demand of the crops for growth and development on Ningxia Plain, and water shortage is the primary character of farmland water balance under natural regulation, ②the diversity of water and land balance of different counties is distinctly influenced by the crop structure, water quantity for irrigation and irrigation level. ③Irrigation water could meet the crop water demand on Ningxia Plain in 2000, but there was not much space to expand irrigating cultivated land.