香格里拉区域大气本底站地面臭氧浓度的变化特征

对2009年香格里拉区域大气本底站地面臭氧观测结果进行分析,研究其浓度水平、变化特征、影响因素及其区域代表性。结果表明:香格里拉站地面O₃月均值浓度在21.8~57.7 ppb,年平均值为38.0±12.1 ppb,在春季最高,平均值为54.1 ppb,在夏季最低,平均值为28.0 ppb。O₃小时均值浓度超过60 ppb的小时数占总有效小时数的6.6%,超过40 ppb的小时数占43.0%。与相近纬度中国东部地区区域大气本底站地面臭氧观测结果相比,香格里拉站体现出不同的O₃日变化和季节变化特征,具有特殊的地域特征。影响香格里拉站的气流主要来自于其西南方向,3 d的后向轨迹可追溯到孟加拉湾东北部地区。偏南的气流主要出现在夏秋季节,O₃浓度相对低,偏北的气流以冬春为主,O₃浓度相对高。     

Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961–2009)

This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961–2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran’s I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961–2009.     

Seasonal changes in daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal from 1941 to 2007

This study aims mostly at understanding seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal. For this purpose, selected precipitation indices that mainly focus on extremes were calculated at the seasonal scale for daily data recorded in the period 1941–2007 at 57 meteorological stations scattered across the area. These indices were explored for trends at the local and regional levels. The results show that there are marked changes in precipitation indices at the seasonal scale. Trends in spring and autumn precipitation have opposite signals. In spring, statistically significant drying trends are found together with a reduction in extremes. In autumn, wetting trends are detected for all indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5 % level. In addition, the relationship between seasonal extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric large-scale modes of low-frequency variability is analysed by means of a seasonal correlation analysis. Four modes of low-frequency variability are explored. Results confirm that, over mainland Portugal, the North Atlantic Oscillation is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in any season and the mode of variability that has the greatest influence on precipitation extremes in the area, particularly in the winter and autumn.     

Fifteen-year trends in criteria air pollutants in oil sands communities of Alberta,Canada

An investigation of ambient air quality was undertaken at three communities within the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) of Alberta, Canada (Fort McKay, Fort McMurray, and Fort Chipewyan). Daily and seasonal patterns and 15-year trends were investigated for several criteria air pollutants over the period of 1998 to 2012. A parametric trend detection method using percentiles from frequency distributions of 1 h concentrations for a pollutant during each year was used. Variables representing 50th, 65th, 80th, 90th, 95th and 98th percentile concentrations each year were identified from frequency distributions and used for trend analysis. Small increasing concentration trends were observed for nitrogen dioxide (< 1 ppb/year) at Fort McKay and Fort McMurray over the period consistent with increasing emissions of oxides of nitrogen (ca. 1000 tons/year) from industrial developments. Emissions from all oil sands facilities appear to be contributing to the trend at Fort McKay, whereas both emissions from within the community (vehicles and commercial) and oil sands facility emissions appear to be contributing to the trend at Fort McMurray. Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions from industrial developments in the AOSR were unchanged during the period (101,000 ± 7000 tons/year; mean ± standard deviation) and no meaningful trends were judged to be occurring at all community stations. No meaningful trends occurred for ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) at all community stations and carbon monoxide at one station in Fort McMurray. Air quality in Fort Chipewyan was much better and quite separate in terms of absence of factors influencing criteria air pollutant concentrations at the other community stations.     

长江流域月降水的EEMD多时间尺度遥相关分析

基于长江流域138个气象站1961~2016年的逐月降水观测资料，应用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）方法，分别对各站点的月降水序列进行EEMD分解，然后，运用时滞相关分析和逐步变量选择的方法，以识别长江流域月降水周期振荡和长期趋势的显著影响因子，并构建多元线性回归模型对长江流域月降水进行预测。结果表明：（1）近50多年来，长江流域各站点的月降水呈现出显著的季节、年际和年代际尺度振荡特征。（2）流域内各站点月降水的长期变化趋势存在着较大的空间差异性，表现为金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河以及鄱阳湖流域是月降水长期趋势显著增加的集中区，而岷江中游以及洞庭湖流域的南部是月降水长期趋势显著减少的集中区。（3）厄尔尼诺1+2区的平均海表温度（NINO1+2）的过去模式是影响长江流域月降水周期振荡的主要气候因子，而全球平均气温距平（GlobalT）是影响长江流域月降水长期趋势的主要气候因子。（4）基于已识别的影响因子构建的月降水量预测模型在旱季的预报性能高于雨季，并在长江上游地区的预报性能高于其中下游地区。     

长江流域径流趋势变化及突变分析

选取长江流域重要控制站宜昌、汉口和大通站,分别应用1882~2000年、1870~2000年和1950~2000年的月平均流量资料,对年代际、月径流、季节性径流的变化以及径流的变化趋势及突变进行了分析研究,并使用非参数Mann Kendall法来检验径流的趋势变化。趋势分析表明,20世纪90年代长江流域径流呈微弱增加趋势,但不显著且地区分布不均,中上游减少,下游增加;而季节性夏季和冬季径流增加趋势明显,尤其是7月和1月径流增加最突出;更重要的是90年代汛期径流也呈现出增加趋势,汛期径流的增加在一定程度上加大了洪灾发生的可能性,这可能是导致洪灾频繁的原因之一。突变分析指出,宜昌和汉口站从1926年开始径流经历了一个明显减少的变化,这与20世纪20年代初,北半球突然变暖,长江上游地区呈现降温、降水减少趋势一致。     

Organic carbon changes in the surface sediments of the Venice lagoon

The concentrations of total, inorganic and organic carbon in the surface sediment of the central part of the Venice lagoon (31-55 stations) during the month of June in 1987, 1993 and 1998 were recorded. In two stations: San Giuliano and Lido, samples were collected on a monthly basis for 1 year also in different periods. On an average, by considering the whole central lagoon, inorganic carbon (IC) and total carbon (TC) did not show significant changes. In contrast organic carbon (OC) had alternating trends showing a decrease from 1987 to 1993, due to the almost complete disappearance of huge macroalgal biomasses, and a marked increase from 1993 to 1998, because of the high sediment disturbance caused by the catching of the clam Tapes philippinarum Adams & Reeve which had colonised the sediment free of macrophytes. The carbon changes monitored in the two stations studied on a seasonal basis during different years not only confirmed such results, but also enhanced the effects of fishing activities at Lido station and those depending on the disappearance of macroalgae at S. Giuliano. Moreover, this paper underlines the importance of seagrass beds. In fact in the areas colonised by those plants the percentage of fine sediments and organic matter is on the increase, while erosive processes are contrasted.     

基于MODIS AOD数据的南京市大气能见度估算

以南京市为研究区,利用MODIS气溶胶产品数据(MOD04L2)获取研究区气溶胶标高数据,结合地面气象站点能见度观测数据,构建研究区不同季节能见度估算模型,估算南京市2013年能见度时空分布。研究结果表明,研究区能见度模型估算值与实测值总体趋势较为一致,分季节模型能见度估算均值相对误差为14.3%;南京市2013年能见度年均值为6.07km,大致呈现出由市区向周边郊区逐渐升高的趋势;研究区不同季节能见度差异明显,夏季能见度显著高于其他3个季节,在该季节全市能见度均值达到9.93km,约为其余3个季节均值的2倍左右,气候状况与经济社会发展布局是影响研究区能见度时空差异的主要因素。     

洞庭湖流域近58年季节性干旱时空分布及大气环流分析

利用洞庭湖流域1960～2017年103个气象站点逐月降水数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析数据以及Z指数,对洞庭湖流域近58年来季节性干旱的时空变化和不同干旱范围等级的大气环流形势进行分析,以加强对季节性干旱的认识。结果表明:近58年洞庭湖流域Z指数存在显著的年际和年代际变化特征,表现为20世纪60年代偏旱,70与80年代干旱呈现出显著的年际旱涝转换,90年代较湿润,进入21世纪出现年代际旱涝转换。春、夏和冬季干旱多发生在1990年之前,且流域的季节性干旱在不同的年代际存在不同的空间分布特征。流域各站点多年平均干旱频率基本在10%～30%之间。从同期大气环流形势来看,EU型遥相关波列对流域各季节干旱均有重要影响,EAP型与Silk Road型遥相关在夏、秋季节对副高强度与位置有重要影响。干旱事件在春、冬季主要受制于北方冷空气的强弱,夏(秋)季在副热带高压偏弱(强)偏北时易发生较大面积干旱。     

三峡工程对下荆江径流变化影响分析

下荆江作为长江最不稳定的江段之一，三峡工程的运行必然会对该江段的水文过程产生深远影响。以监利水文站日均流量数据为基础，研究分析了1983~2012年近30 a来下荆江年径流量、各月月均流量的变化趋势。结合三峡工程的阶段性蓄水，以蓄水前流量的自然波动幅度为基础，定量分析了三峡工程对下荆江径流变化的影响程度。趋势性分析结果显示，近30 a来下荆江年径流量呈波动性变化，无显著趋势。1~3月月均流量有极显著的增加趋势，10月份有极显著的下降趋势。从三峡工程蓄水前后各月份月均流量的绝对变化量来看，10、7和8月的变化量最大，但结合三峡工程蓄水前各月月均流量的自然波动幅度，相对变化率最大的月份为1、2和10月，其相对变化量均超过其自然波动幅度的1.5倍。对于相对变化量较大的月份可能产生的潜在影响亟需进一步的深入研究     

Long-term variations of folic acid concentrations in the Northern Adriatic

Folic acid (FA), which belongs to B-group vitamins has recently been recognized as possible nutrient for some phytoplankton species (a diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum). The beneficial role of FA in human health is widely documented. In some countries food fortification with FA has already become mandatory. FA is also used under commercial name of Dosfolat for the treatment of industrial and domestic wastewaters. This is an exploratory study on seasonal and depth variability of FA concentrations in the Northern Adriatic Sea (station 101-max depth 30 m, under the Po River influence). Seawater samples were analysed in the period from February 1998 to February 2003 based on monthly determinations. Those preliminary findings showed that in the upper layer (10 m) FA concentrations were in the range from 0.1 to 28 nM. In the lower layer (20-30 m) FA concentrations were in the range from 0.1 to 12 nM. It was found that phytoplankton and microorganisms which are responsible for the production of FA in the Northern Adriatic (Station 101) were situated at the depth from 5 to 10 m. The observed water column and seasonal distributions depended on a sensitive balance between the production and the consumption of FA.     

Comparison of temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Ozone Pollution at Ground Level in the Eastern China

Monitoring data from ozone（O3） automatic stations in three typical cities with different climatic areas in the southern and northern parts of eastern China are used to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of ozone pollution at ground level. The results show that ozone pollution level has distinct regional differences and the concentration in the suburbs is higher than that in the urban areas. The seasonal variation of ozone concentration in different climatic areas is greatly affected by the variation of precipitation. Ozone concentration in Shenyang and Beijing , in the temperate zone, has one perennial peak concentration, occurring in early summer, May or June. Ozone concentration in Guangzhou, in sub-tropical zone, has two peak values year round. The highest values occur in October and the secondary high value in June. The ozone season in the south is longer than that in the north. The annual average daily peak value of ozone concentrations in different climates usually occur around 3 pm. The diurnal variation range of ozone concentration declines with the increase of latitude. Ozone concentration does not elevate with the increase of traffic flow. Ozone concentration in Guangzhou has a distinct reverse relation to CO and NOx. This complicated non-linearity indicates that the equilibrium of ozone photochemical reaction has regional differences. Exceeding the rate of Beijing＇s lh ozone concentration is higher than that of Guangzhou, whereas the average 8h ozone level is lower than that of Guangzhou, indicating that areas in low latitude are more easily affected by moderate ozone concentrations and longer exposure. Thus, China should work out standards for 8h ozone concentration.     

近60年赣江水沙变化特征及影响因素分析

赣江是鄱阳湖流域最大水系,赣江水沙变化对鄱阳湖入湖径流、泥沙等水文特征有重要影响。目前对赣江水沙研究主要集中在下游外洲站河段,不足以反映全流域水沙变化规律。选取赣江上游4站、吉安和外洲水文站分别代表上、中、下游河段,基于近60 a的实测流量、悬移质泥沙资料,采用水文学和数理统计相结合的方法,分析赣江水沙年际变化特征以及可能影响因素,以期为流域水沙资源管理提供参考。结果表明:(1)赣江径流年际变化大,1970s、1990s水量较丰,其它年代径流偏少,年径流序列无显著变化趋势和突变点;(2)输沙量年际变化剧烈,呈显著降低趋势,上游4站、吉安站、外洲站输沙序列突变点分别为2002年、1995年、1995年,突变后年输沙量较突变前减少52%、71%、67%;(3)赣江上游水土保持建设是上游4站输沙量减小的主要原因;1993年后万安水库拦沙是吉安、外洲站输沙量显著减少的主要原因,水土保持、河道采砂也是引起吉安、外洲站输沙量减少的直接因素。(4)水土保持减沙的作用是缓慢和滞后的,而万安水库对下游河道的减沙作用是迅速而显著的。可见,赣江入鄱阳湖的年径流无明显减少趋势,入湖输沙量显著减少,有利于减少鄱阳湖的泥沙淤积、促进湖泊生态的良性发展。     

Comparison of temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Ozone Pollution at Ground Level in the Eastern China

Abstract

Monitoring data from ozone(O₃ automatic stations in three typical cities with different climatic areas in the southern and northern parts of eastern China are used to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of ozone pollution at ground level. The results show that ozone pollution level has distinct regional differences and the concentration in the suburbs is higher than that in the urban areas. The seasonal variation of ozone concentration in different climatic areas is greatly affected by the variation of precipitation. Ozone concentration in Shenyang and Beijing, in the temperate zone, has one perennial peak concentration, occurring in early summer, May or June. Ozone concentration in Guangzhou, in sub-tropical zone, has two peak values year round. The highest values occur in October and the secondary high value in June. The ozone season in the south is longer than that in the north. The annual average daily peak value of ozone concentrations in different climates usually occur around 3 pm. The diurnal variation range of ozone concentration declines with the increase of latitude. Ozone concentration does not elevate with the increase of traffic flow. Ozone concentration in Guangzhou has a distinct reverse relation to CO and NO_x. This complicated non-linearity indicates that the equilibrium of ozone photochemical reaction has regional differences. Exceeding the rate of Beijing's 1h ozone concentration is higher than that of Guangzhou, whereas the average 8h ozone level is lower than that of Guangzhou, indicating that areas in low latitude are more easily affected by moderate ozone concentrations and longer exposure. Thus, China should work out standards for 8h ozone concentration.     

宜昌站1900~2004年生态水文特征变化

基于宜昌站1900~2004年共105年的日径流量资料，分别采用Mann Kendall法、Mann Whitney法分析该站水文特征与变化。跳跃性检验表明，宜昌站年平均流量的跳跃点出现在1969年，置信度超过99%。宜昌站1970年前的平均流量是14 375 m3/s，1970年后的平均流量是13 438 m3/s，相差937 m3/s，相当于295.5 m3/a，流量减少主要集中在下半年（7~12月），以8~10月最为明显。以1970年为界，将宜昌站105年水文序列划分为“近自然状态河流” 的1970年前和“人工干扰状态河流”的1970年后两个分析水文变动序列，基于Richter提出的生态水文变动指标体系，应用变动范围法，计算了长江中游的生态水文目标，分析了长江流域宜昌站的生态水文特征变化。结果表明，1970年以后，人类活动与自然变动对长江宜昌站生态水文特征的改变并不明显，仅在1月、11月平均流量上有中等程度的改变。     

National and regional trends in ambient ozone measurements, 1975–1981

Long-term (1975–1981) and short-term (1980–1981) national and regional trends in ozone (O₃) are examined. The data used in this paper come from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB). Air quality trends are presented for both the National Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS) and all other sites meeting the historical and data completeness criteria. Nationally, the composite average of the second-highest daily maximum 1-h O₃ values recorded at 209 sites decreased 14% between 1975 and 1981. An even greater improvement was observed in the estimated number of exceedances in the ozone season (July–September), which decreased 42%. Volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions decreased 9% during the same time period. The greater improvement observed in ozone levels appears to be a combination of reductions in VOC emissions and the change in the calibration procedure which took place between 1978 and 1979. Between 1980 and 1981, the majority of the 159 monitoring sites with data in both years decreased with a median rate of improvement of 8%. This is consistent with the 7% drop in VOC emissions during this period.     

湖北省降水分区研究

利用湖北省19个国家级气象台站1956~2009年逐月降水资料，采用分层聚类方法，基于聚类分析碎石图和聚类树状图来探索最适宜的分区方案，对湖北省全年、逐月降水进行了分区，并结合西太平洋副热带高压的移动探讨了分区的合理性，之后逐区进行了自相关分析和趋势分析。结果表明：湖北省全年降水分区为5区，1~12月降水分区分别为3、3、4、3、5、4、3、3、3、4、3、3个区。各月降水分区的差异性与西太平洋副热带高压的南北移动有密切关系，副高脊线在北纬18°以南、北纬20°以北，以及缓慢南退过程中，分区形式有较大差异。自相关分析以及趋势分析结果表明单一气象站不能代表所在分区的气候特点，而所在分区又不能代表湖北省的气候特点，基于不同目的，进行分区和综合，将有助于研究特定区域的气候特点     

基于SPEI的西南农业区气象干旱时空演变特征

干旱已成为西南农业区的具有一定破坏力的自然灾害,研究干旱的时空变化对该区干旱的评估、预测具有重要的现实意义。根据西南农业区1962~2012年月气象资料,利用Penman-Monteith公式计算蒸散发和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)值;采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall方法、小波分析和旋转经验正交函数(REOF)等方法分析了西南农业区干旱时空变化。研究结果表明:(1)西南农业区整体呈干旱化趋势;2000年以来年、四季变干趋势更加明显;秋季变干趋势显著;年均SPEI指数不存在显著突变点;年和四季干湿变化均存在2~8 a左右的振荡周期。(2)根据REOF分解的前6个空间模态,将西南农业区划分成6个干湿特征区域:云南高原东部区、汉中盆地区、东部山地区、云南高原西部区、四川盆地区、贵州高原区;其中云南高原东部区变干趋势显著,汉中盆地区和东部山地区有变湿润趋势,但并不明显;6个分区干湿变化普遍存在2~6 a左右的振荡周期。研究结果可为西南农业区防旱、抗旱提供科学参考。     

High-resolution spatial analysis of stomatal ozone uptake in arable crops and pastures

Ozone effects on plants depend on atmospheric transport and stomatal uptake. Thus, ozone-risk assessments should use measured ozone concentrations and account for the influence of atmospheric conditions and soil moisture on stomatal and nonstomatal ozone deposition. This requires disaggregated data for the physical input parameters and species-specific data for specific stomatal conductance (g(s)). In this study, an approach was developed based on a resistance analogue transport model. This model requires interpolated routine-measuring data for ozone concentration at 3-5 m height, wind speed, precipitation, and soil moisture content as inputs to estimate the amount of ozone taken up by wheat (Triticum aestivum) and grass/clover pastures with a 1x1-km resolution. The model was applied to the area under agricultural production in Switzerland. Using data for June 1994, the calculations revealed that the median of the distribution of stomatal ozone uptake was 88% higher in wheat compared to grassland. This was mainly due to the higher maximum stomatal conductance in wheat. Because ozone flux to soil and to external plant surfaces was comparable in both vegetation types, the difference in the stomatal fluxes was mainly responsible for distinct differences in flux partitioning. In both cases, only about 11% of the total cumulative flux was absorbed by external plant surfaces, whereas the soil was a strong sink responsible for as much as 50% of the total flux into grasslands. The higher-ozone flux to wheat resulted in clearly lower-ozone concentrations at canopy height, but no significant correlation between cumulative canopy-level ozone exposure, expressed as accumulated exposure above 40 ppb (AOT40), and stomatal uptake was found. Thus, to estimate the ozone risk for crops using a flux-based approach may lead to results that differ substantially from those obtained with a concentration-based approach.     

湖北省咸宁市光伏电站太阳能资源评价

为了对无太阳辐射观测的咸宁市进行并网光伏电站太阳能资源综合评价，拟采用水平面太阳辐射气候学推算方法和倾斜面辐射换算方法，即根据武汉站历史资料分月建立总辐射量和直接辐射量与日照百分率的推算方程推算出咸宁逐月太阳辐射各分量，分析其时间变化、资源丰度和稳定性，并基于Klein提出的散射辐射各向同性的假设，计算出该地不同倾斜面年总辐射量和最佳倾角。结果表明：咸宁地区近50 a（1961~2009年）水平面太阳总辐射年总量为4 0914 MJ/m2，该地区属于太阳能资源丰富区，该地辐射形式等级处于散射辐射较多(C)等级，且太阳能资源年变化稳定度较高。正南朝向斜面接受总辐射年总量最大的条件下其最佳倾角为18°，该倾角下斜面年总辐射量为4 2246 MJ/m2，比水平的值高出33%。设计容量为1 500 kWp的光伏阵列若按最佳倾角和方位角安装，每年可发电约132×106 kW·h。太阳辐射各分量的合理推算与多个评价指标的联合应用为光伏电站规划设计提供了科学依据，也为今后类似工作提供了样本。