洞庭湖通江水道鱼类资源周年动态及其洄游特征研究

为了解洞庭湖通江水道鱼类资源的周年动态及其洄游特征,2017年5月～2018年6月,对洞庭湖通江水道的仔鱼和幼鱼、成鱼进行了逐月调查。(1)共采集仔鱼19种,数量以■(Hemiculter leucisculus)最多(占总数的76. 6%),其次为子陵吻虾虎鱼(Rhinogobius giurinus)(占8. 8%)和似鳊(Pseudobrama simoni)(占4. 3%);仔鱼主要出现在4～9月,密度以6月最高(848. 8 Ind./1 000 m~3)。(2)采集幼鱼、成鱼42种,数量以短颌鲚(Coilia brachygnathus)(占总数的30. 3%)最多,其次为贝氏■(Hemiculter bleekeri)(占15. 3%)和■(占12. 2%);幼鱼、成鱼丰度以8月最高(为729尾/船/日)。(3) 4～7月,江湖洄游型鱼类的运动指数在0. 1～0. 7之间,呈现入湖趋势; 9～次年3月,江湖洄游型鱼类的运动指数在-0. 4～-0. 1之间,呈现出湖趋势;径流量是幼鱼、成鱼出、入湖的主要驱动因子。     

滇东南峰林湖盆区表层岩溶泉水化学动态变化分析

为探究不同表层岩溶带岩溶水系统和人类干扰方式下滇东南峰林湖盆区表层岩溶泉地球化学变化特征及其影响因素,利用CTDP300水质检测仪,对不同地质背景下的两泉域的水化学性质从月动态和降雨动态两个尺度进行了一个水文年的观测。结果表明:(1)菜花箐泉理化指标季节动态变幅较大:水温为4.6℃,电导率为302μs/cm,pH为0.66,水浊度为255.1;火把洞泉变幅相对较小:水温为3.3℃,电导率为225μs/cm,pH为0.5,水浊度9.8。(2)无雨时:菜花箐泉气温与水温、电导率、pH呈正相关关系;火把洞气温与水温呈现正相关关系,水温与电导率、pH呈现负相关关系。(3)强降雨时:菜花箐泉在降雨初期水温、电导率、水浊度均出现峰值,pH呈现低值。在降雨中后期,电导率大幅度上升,在6 h内从189μs/cm上升到405μs/cm,pH出现峰值后呈波动下降趋势。火把洞泉在降雨初期水温与电导率、pH呈正相关关系,各自呈现本期间峰值。在降雨持续10 h后,pH、电导率均呈现下降趋势。(4)弱降雨气候条件下:菜花箐和火把洞泉的理化指标变幅都较小,在降雨初期、中期和后期两泉域pH、电导率都出现稀释效应曲线。     

长江口南支邻近水域碎波带仔稚鱼群落结构的差异及关联

为探明长江口南支及邻近水域碎波带仔稚鱼群落结构的差异及相互联系，分别对长江口南支、杭州湾北岸与泗礁沙滩碎波带进行小型拖网（1 m×4 m，网目1 mm）取样调查，样品在实验室内进行种类鉴定及数量统计。结果显示：种类组成方面，3处水域分别采集到仔稚鱼11科40种、23科59种与28科46种，共有种7种；洄游性种类、河口性种类与海洋性种类分别为3者优势类群；单位捕捞努力量渔获量（CPUE）长江口南支最高，为41.45 ind./haul，泗礁沙滩最低，为5.72 ind./haul；长江口南支仔稚鱼各发育阶段个体分布相对均匀，杭州湾北岸以稚鱼个体为主，泗礁沙滩以后弯曲期仔鱼占优势；多样性指数杭州湾北岸最高，为2.19，泗礁沙滩最低，为1.75；长江口南支与杭州湾北岸群落相似度较高。数量变动方面，3处水域种类数均为8月最高，CPUE分别于8月、9月与5月达到峰值。生境功能方面，长江口南支兼具定居地、保育场与暂居地等功能，杭州湾北岸与泗礁沙滩则仅为保育场与暂居地；3处水域共有种中国花鲈（Lateolabrax maculatus）分别在不同时间段及不同发育阶段进入3处水域栖息保育，长江口南支及其邻近水域碎波带是其向岸及溯河洄游过程中的重要保育场与中转站。 关键词： 长江口南支；邻近水域；碎波带；仔稚鱼；群落；差异与关联     

Spatio-temporal analysis of climatic variables in the western part of Bangladesh

Monitoring and detecting trends of climatic variables like rainfall and temperature are essential for agricultural developments in the context of climate change. The present study has detected trends in annual and cropping seasonal rainfall and temperature data for the period of 1961–2011 using Mann–Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s rho (SR) test and modified Mann–Kendall test that has been applied to the significant lag-1 serial correlated time series data, and slope has been estimated using Sen’s Slope estimator for twelve meteorological stations located in the western part of Bangladesh covering about 41 % of the country. Almost 71 % trends explored by MK test in annual rainfall are statistically insignificant, and SR test also complies it. The spatial distribution of rainfall trend shows insignificant positive trends in major part of the area. Significant positive trends both by MK test and by SR test at 95 % confidence levels are observed at rates of 8.56, 11.15 and 13.66 mm/year at Dinajpur, Rangpur and Khepupara stations, respectively, and the Kharif season rainfall of these stations also shows significant increasing trends except Dinajpur. On the other hand, significant decreasing trends in annual rainfall are found at Bhola (?11.67 mm/year) and Rajshahi (?5.951 mm/year) stations and decreasing trends in rainfall dominated the Pre-Kharif season over the area. But, 83.33 % of the stations show rising trends in annual mean temperature with significant positive trends (as observed by both MK test and SR test) at Rangpur, Bogra, Faridpur, Jessore and Bhola stations where the rate of changes vary from 0.013 °C/year at Faridpur to 0.08 °C/year at Bhola. Most of the trends in Rabi and Pre-Kharif seasons of mean temperatures are not statistically significant. However, all stations except Barisal show significant rising trends in temperature in Kharif season. To cope with this changing pattern of rainfall and temperature, effective adaptation strategies should be taken to keep up the agricultural production that is related to livelihood of the most people and to ensure the country’s food security.     

金华江支流白沙溪附生硅藻群落结构及影响因子研究

于2010年5、8和11月，2011年2月，分别采集了金华江支流白沙溪4个断面附生硅藻样品，分析其硅藻群落结构及物种多样性，并利用多样性指数对水质进行了生物学评价；同时，应用典型对应分析揭示白沙溪硅藻群落结构与环境因子之间的关系。结果表明：（1）共鉴定附生硅藻92种（含变型和变种），隶属于2纲19科31属；多样性指数为140~248，总平均为189；均匀度指数为012~038，总平均为023；（2）硅藻群落结构呈现出季节上的变化。在季节变化上，物种丰富度及多样性指数以夏季（8月）最高，而以春季（5月）最低。白沙溪水体总体为α 中污水体；（3）典型对应分析结果表明，氨氮、水温和pH是影响白沙溪附生硅藻群落分布的主要因素，硅藻群落结构随着这些环境因子的变化表现出一定的空间差异     

漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力时空变化

漫湾水电站是澜沧江水能梯级开发的第一个干流大型水电站，加强库区水土流失治理与监督监测尤为必要，而降雨侵蚀力的时空分布规律研究则是实现区域土壤侵蚀定量监测预报的重要基础。根据有关降雨侵蚀力的计算方法，利用漫湾电站库区4个测站1980～2000年的逐月平均降雨资料，估算了其降雨侵蚀力R值的时空分布规律及其变化特征。结果表明：漫湾电站库区多年平均降雨侵蚀力在1 9336～3 9727 MJ·mm/hm2·h；R值的年内变化显著，且较大值集中分布在雨季的5月～10月，平均R值占全年的867%，尤其6～8月连续3个月的降雨侵蚀力平均占全年侵蚀力的一半以上；R值的年际变化显示20世纪90年代漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力比80年代平均增加2835 MJ·mm/hm2·h；R值的空间分布上以凤庆站点的年降雨侵蚀力最大；南涧站点的年降雨侵蚀力最小，但是其年际波动幅度较大。全面地分析了漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力R值的时空变化特征，为该地区有效防止与监测水土流失情况、更好地安置水电站工程移民提供参考。     

丹江流域水沙变化特征分析

丹江流域是南水北调中线工程重要水源地，近年来受多种因素影响，径流泥沙情况发生了很大变化，准确把握其变化趋势对水资源管理及水土保持工作意义重大。该文基于荆紫关水文站1958～2015年径流和悬移质输沙量资料，运用Mann-Kendall 检验法、距平累积法、滑动t检验法以及双累积曲线法，阐明了丹江流域近60年径流量和悬移质输沙量变化特征，定量分析了各影响因素在径流泥沙变化中的作用。结果表明：丹江流域径流量与悬移质输沙量年际变化大，呈显著下降趋势，1958～1972、1982～1989年为丰水丰沙期，1972～1981年与1990～2015年处于枯水枯沙期，径流量和悬移质输沙量分别在1983年与1989年发生突变。人为因素和降水的贡献率分别为58.8%和41.2%，说明人为因素特别是水利水土保持工程是引起丹江流域输沙变化的主要因素。     

The formation of wood jams in Kamchatka rivers and their role in juvenile fish distribution

In piedmont rivers of the Kamchatka Peninsula, wood jams play a major role in channel formation and largely determine the density distribution of juvenile fish along the river, offering them convenient habitats in areas with rapid current. It has been found that juvenile fish density in wood jams is 1.5–3 times higher than in adjoining open shoals. An analysis of data on the location and morphology of more than 200 wood jams has shown that their occurrence frequency and size depend mainly on river size (flow discharge), the type and morphology of river channel, and the type of tree stand in the floodplain.     

漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力时空变化

漫湾水电站是澜沧江水能梯级开发的第一个干流大型水电站，加强库区水土流失治理与监督监测尤为必要，而降雨侵蚀力的时空分布规律研究则是实现区域土壤侵蚀定量监测预报的重要基础。根据有关降雨侵蚀力的计算方法，利用漫湾电站库区4个测站1980～2000年的逐月平均降雨资料，估算了其降雨侵蚀力R值的时空分布规律及其变化特征。结果表明：漫湾电站库区多年平均降雨侵蚀力在1 9336～3 9727 MJ·mm/hm2·h；R值的年内变化显著，且较大值集中分布在雨季的5月～10月，平均R值占全年的867%，尤其6～8月连续3个月的降雨侵蚀力平均占全年侵蚀力的一半以上；R值的年际变化显示20世纪90年代漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力比80年代平均增加2835 MJ·mm/hm2·h；R值的空间分布上以凤庆站点的年降雨侵蚀力最大；南涧站点的年降雨侵蚀力最小，但是其年际波动幅度较大。全面地分析了漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力R值的时空变化特征，为该地区有效防止与监测水土流失情况、更好地安置水电站工程移民提供参考。     

The role of environmental and fisheries multi-controls in white seabream (Diplodus sargus) artisanal fisheries in Portuguese coast

Evaluating the effects of fishing and environmental factors on fish populations are fundamental tenets of fisheries science. In this study, we assess associations between environmental variables (sea surface temperature; North Atlantic Oscillation index; upwelling; wind magnitude; westerly winds; northerly winds; river discharge) and fishing variables (fishing effort) in Diplodus sagus catch rates accounting for regional analyses (northwest coast; southwest coast and Algarve—Algarve south coast). Different time series models for data fitting (multi-model approach) were used. The models were lagged, according to species fishing recruitment age based on the hypothesis that fisheries catches depend on larvae recruitment and survivorship. D. sargus catch rates across areas were unrelated to fishing effort but correlated to environmental variables, with seasonal events explaining much of the variability in trends. On the northwestern coast, the catch rates were mainly set by sea surface temperature (SST) and wind magnitude; however, southwestern coast catch rates were set by NAO winter. On the south coast, only one statistical model (SST, upwelling and westerly winds) associated spring conditions with D. sargus catch rates. The multi-model approach revealed autumn, winter and spring seasonal effects to be related with northwest, southwest and Algarve coastal catch rates, respectively, indicating a possible coastal longitudinal gradient related with given periods of spawning and larval availability. The metadata analysis yielded different results from the regional analyses. In summary, marine resource management should take regional environment characteristics and variability into account when determining sustainable catch rates in given areas for species with high habitat site fidelity.     

Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin,Ethiopia

This study evaluates variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia based on observed records from six stations. Nine daily rainfall indices were defined and analyzed based on the World Meteorological Organization guideline. Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend test were used to determine the magnitude and statistical significance of the rainfall changes, respectively. The results show complex patterns of rainfall variability and local-scale trends. Statistically significant increasing changes were observed at Key Afer for most of the indices. On the other hand, the increasing trends in the number of very heavy rainfall events (R20 mm) were statistically significant at three (Jinka, Key Afer and Wolaita Sodo) out of the six stations. On the other hand, significant decreasing trends were found at Sawla for the maximum one day (Rx1 day) and the number of very heavy rainfall event (R20 mm). No systematic trends were found for the number of wet and dry day-related rainfall indices. However, the annual total rainfall averaged for the entire basin and at two stations (Key Afer and Wolaita Sodo) showed statistically significant increasing trends, both at the 0.01 level. Generally, the results of this study contradict with previous studies that reported significant declining trends in annual and Kiremt (main rainy season) rainfall amounts over this part of the country, suggesting the reviving of rainfall during the last two decades. Also, the results of this study agree with previous researches that reported the absence of systematic patterns of trends in daily rainfall indices in different parts of the country. The study has important implications for an effective management of water resources and climate risk management particularly in view of the fact that five hydropower plants and large-scale sugarcane plantations are planned, and some are under construction in the basin.     

近60 a来长江干流输沙量变化及原因分析

根据长江干流宜昌、汉口、大通3个站点1954~2013年的输沙量数据，采用有序聚类和泥沙归因诊断分析等方法分析了3个站点输沙量时间序列的跳跃点以及降水、产流、产沙等各因素在输沙量变化中的贡献和作用。分析结果表明：3个站点的输沙量均存在明显的跳跃点，在跳跃点前后，输沙量出现较大幅度的下降，产沙能力的下降对输沙量比例变化率的贡献超过90%。人类活动造成的水库总库容量变化和长江流域植被覆盖度变化是造成长江干流输沙量变化的主要原因。结果表明：1985~2000年相比1954~1984年输沙量下降的585%、2001~2013年相比1985~2000年输沙量下降的831%是由于水库建设所造成。研究时段内流域植被覆盖度呈现先下降后上升的趋势。与1954~1984年相比，1985~2000年长江流域植被覆盖度下降，造成的输沙量变化为输沙量实际下降的 -436%，与1985~2000年相比，2001~2013年长江流域植被覆盖度上升，造成的输沙量下降贡献了输沙量实际下降的180%。 关键词： 长江；输沙量；突变点；人类活动     

Environmental influence on commercial fishery landings of small pelagic fish in Portugal

Small pelagic fishes are particularly abundant in areas with high environmental variability (zones of coastal upwelling and areas of tidal mixing and river discharge), and because of this, their abundance suffers large inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations. In Portugal, the most important species in terms of landings are European sardine, Atlantic horse mackerel and Atlantic chub mackerel. Small pelagic fish landings account for 62.8 % of the total fish biomass and represent 32.7 % of the economical value of all catches. We have investigated trends in landings of these small pelagic fishes and detected the effects of environmental factors in this fishery. In order to explain the variability of landings of small pelagic fishes, we have used official landings (1965–2012) for trawling and purse seine fisheries and applied generalized linear models, using the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) (annual and winter NAO index), sea surface temperature (SST), wind data (strength and North–South and East–West wind components) and rainfall, as explanatory variables. Regression analysis was used to describe the relationship between landings and SST. The models explained between 50.16 and 51.07 % of the variability of the LPUE, with the most important factors being winter NAO index, SST and wind strength. The LPUE of European sardine and Atlantic horse mackerel was negatively correlated with SST, and LPUE of Atlantic chub mackerel was positively correlated with SST. The use of landings of three important species of small pelagic fishes allowed the detection of variations in landings associated with changes in sea water temperature and NAO index.     

汉江流域降水结构时空特征及影响因素分析

利用汉江流域32个气象站1961~2016年逐日降水资料，分析了汉江流域降水时空分布特征，并探讨了海温及大气环流对流域降水的影响。结果表明：雨量和雨日空间分布相似，小雨、中雨的雨量和雨日由西南向东北递减，降水中心位于西南和东南部；流域东北部大雨以上量级降水由偏少转为偏多，而雨强空间分布则没有明显规律。流域降水集中度自东南向西北逐渐增加，降水集中期逐渐推迟。海温对降水的影响存在季节差异，春季、夏季和秋季降水分别受前期南印度洋、热带北大西洋和热带中东太平洋海温影响，冬季降水则受海温影响不明显；大尺度大气环流对降水存在影响，冬季欧亚遥相关型和春季西太平洋遥相关型均引起冬季风强度变化来影响冬季和春季降水，夏季副高位置和乌山阻高以及秋季巴湖低槽和印缅槽强度则均通过冷空气和暖湿气流强度及交汇位置来影响夏季和秋季降水。     

近38年安徽省夏季降水日数和强度的分布与变化特征

选用1971～2008年安徽省78个地面气象站的观测资料，分析夏季降水和暴雨的气候变化规律。从结果来看安徽省夏季降水主要受到地理位置、地形地貌和风、温、湿等气象因素的影响。根据主要影响因子的不同，按照降水特性以及行政边界将安徽省划分成了10个区，不同区域内降水特征和分布结构各有差异。在时间变化上，雨日出现概率有下降的趋势，但暴雨日比重和降水量均有升高的变化特征。综合而言，安徽省的降水朝着具有局地性、突发性的强降水过程方面发展，从而导致部分区域内突发性暴雨过程频发     

Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961–2009)

This paper examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961–2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran’s I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961–2009.     

鄱阳湖鱼类群落结构及其时空动态

为系统阐明鄱阳湖鱼类群落特征及其影响因素,以便为鄱阳湖的鱼类资源保护及可持续利用提供理论依据,2010年4~11月对鄱阳湖鱼类群落空间差异和季节动态进行了调查。结果表明,共调查到鱼类72种,隶属于7目14科46属。在群落结构上,江湖洄游型鱼类占鱼类种数的25.00%,河流型鱼类占鱼类种数的19.44%,湖泊定居型鱼类占鱼类种数的55.56%。在空间结构上,沿岸带共采集到鱼类49种,其中鲫(Carassius auratus)、鲤(Cyprinus carpio)、鲇(Silurus asotus)、黄颡鱼(Pelteobagrus fulvidraco)等10个种类在数量上占优势;敞水区共采集到鱼类68种,其中刀鲚(Coilia ectenes)、鲫(Carassius auratus)、贝氏(Hemiculter bleekeri)、似鳊(Pseudobrama simoni)等10个种类在数量上占优势;沿岸带鱼类密度和生物量在各样点间存在显著差异。在季节变化方面,敞水区物种数和生物量在月份间存在显著差异。鱼类群落组成与环境因子的CCA分析发现,影响鄱阳湖沿岸带鱼类群落的环境因子为水温、支流影响、离长江距离和透明度,而影响敞水区鱼类群落的环境因子为离长江距离和透明度。     

Climate change risks in Sahelian Africa

Analyses of Sahel regional and country-specific rainfall and temperature time series derived from a fixed subset of stations show the well-documented large-scale decreasing trend in rainfall that occurred between 1970 and 2000 and also, an increasing trend in summertime maximum and wintertime minimum temperatures. The evolution of summertime mean maximum temperature is almost opposite to that of rainfall, and a significant correlation is observed between the evolution of this quantity and millet yields, in comparison with correlation with summertime rainfall. It appears that quantifying future vulnerability of the Sahel zone to climate change is rather difficult because climate models have not in general shown yet a satisfactory reproduction of the observed climate variability of this area.     

长江上游支流老河沟鱼类群落结构的时空格局

2012年3月、6月、9月和12月按季度对涪江支流老河沟的14个样点进行了鱼类群落结构调查和分析。共采集鱼类11种,隶属于2目4科;其中,鲤形目鱼类7种,占物种数的63.64%。沿上游源头到下游的纵向梯度方向,老河沟鱼类的种类数和丰度均逐渐增加,具极显著性差异,而鱼类种类数和丰度则无季节差异性。聚类分析(Cluster Analysis)和多维尺度分析(MDS)表明,当Bray-curtis相似度矩阵值为40.77%时,老河沟鱼类群落分成上游、中游和下游3组。利用相似度百分比分析(SIMPER)确定,引起3组差异性的特定鱼类是宽鳍鱲、尖头、似()、齐口裂腹鱼、贝氏高原鳅、红尾荷马条鳅和青石爬鮡。典型相关分析(CCA)表明海拔、底质类型、流速、溶氧、总溶解固体、水温、电导率、河宽、pH值和水深等环境变量是老河沟鱼类群落时空格局差异的影响因子。     

三峡库区局地气候变化

三峡库区地处鄂西和渝东的崇山峻岭中，局地气候受山谷和水体的共同影响，冬暖夏热，降水丰富。利用三峡库区及其周边地区33个气象观测站1961~2006年降水与温度观测资料，对2003年蓄水前后的降水、气温等要素作了时间对比分析，同时分别选取近库区和远库区站点作降水比值和温度差值分析，结果表明近几年库区降水较常年偏少，但降水趋势与西南地区降水年代际变化一致。20世纪90年代之后三峡库区气温有显著上升趋势，蓄水后受水域扩大影响近库地区的气温发生了一定变化，表现出冬季增温效应，夏季有弱降温效应，但总体以增温为主。由于三峡工程局地气候影响是一个复杂、长期的气候调节过程，所给出的结果只是三峡水库蓄水至今3年时间的观测分析结果，同时蓄水前后温度变化还需要更长时间观测分析统计，对水库水域扩大影响造成的局地气候效应有待更多研究方法及模式结果的验证。