引入城市扩张干扰效应的生态服务价值化方法改进

城市扩张在规模上对自然环境空间造成挤压,在结构上加剧生境破碎化程度,且对其邻域的生态用地有负面影响,测算城市扩张引起的生态服务价值变化应考虑其干扰效应。以南昌市为研究区,首先测算生态服务价值变化,在此基础上,考虑不同建设用地类型的不同干扰效应,测算引入城市扩张干扰效应改进的生态服务价值,深入对比分析南昌市1995～2005年和2005～2015年间改进前后生态服务价值变化的差异。研究结果表明:(1)南昌市各城市扩张斑块的干扰强度总体较高。2005～2015年间的城市扩张干扰效应明显比1995～2005年间的城市扩张干扰效应高,城市扩张的生态成本在增加;(2)城市扩张斑块干扰效应的空间分布差异明显,周围的耕地、林地和水域面积比例较大的城市扩张斑块的干扰效应较高;(3)基于改进方法评估的城市扩张引起的生态服务价值变化大于改进前方法评估的生态服务价值变化,不同的邻域组成,不同来源类型的城市扩张斑块的生态服务价值变化差异明显。研究结果有助于科学合理度量城市扩张引起的生态系统服务价值变化,并为城市扩张生态成本的测算提供科学的支撑。     

The impact of urban spatial structure on air pollution: empirical evidence from China

Environment, Development and Sustainability - For a long time, air pollution caused by unreasonable urban spatial structure and excessive urban sprawl has been a prominent environmental problem in...     

南京近30年人口空间格局演变与机制研究

人口分布是人口发展过程在地理空间中的表现形式,研究人口空间布局的时空演变过程,揭示其中的规律,确定影响因子,对引导人口合理布局,实现人口、资源、环境、社会的协调发展具有指导作用。以南京市为研究区域,1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年数据为依据,采用行政区划法、圈层方向法、空间插值法和热点分析法,从四大区域、区县、乡镇街道和网格等不同层次分析了南京近30 a人口空间格局演变过程;总结出人口格局演变的六大特征;最后,从经济发展水平、自然地理条件、产业优化升级与布局调整、新城和开发区建设、交通便捷程度、公共服务水平和设施配套、工作选择、居住空间选择、城市空间发展政策与城市规划等方面阐释了南京人口格局演变的机理,并通过回归模型加以实证     

Changing air quality in Delhi,India: determinants,trends, and policy implications

Air pollution is a major environmental problem in urban areas worldwide. Delhi, the capital city of India, is no exception to the universal pattern of deteriorating urban air quality with concentration of pollutants being well above the recommended WHO levels. The magnitude and urgency of the problem as a global environmental issue needs a systematic understanding of the potential causes of pollution and their contribution to air quality. In the present study, ambient air quality data (1987–2006) of SO₂, NO₂, SPM, and RSPM were analyzed to asses the changing air quality in the study area and to evaluate the effect of measures taken to control it. The primary data were collected from 1,583 households to examine the relationship between outdoor and indoor pollution level. Based on the data, the current study concludes that despite the implementation of different pollution-controlling measures, the pollutants, especially the particulate pollutants, were well above the standard limits set by CPCB. Integration between technological and social approach of urban planning is required to mitigate and manage urban environmental problems in sustainable manner.     

Investigating the relationship between air pollution, health and social deprivation in Leeds, UK

This study examines the relationship between air pollution, social deprivation and health in the city of Leeds, UK under a baseline and three distance-based road user charging (RUC) scenarios set at 2 pence, 10 pence and 20 pence/km. Through application of a series of linked models of traffic, emission and pollutant dispersion, air quality was modelled in response to RUC scenarios. The pollutant modelled were NO(2), PM(10), CO, benzene and 1,3-butadiene, though results of NO(2) are used in this study. The RUC scenarios were compared with the 'base' scenario, all set for the year 2005. The RUC initiatives result in the differences in ambient concentrations of NO(2). The study correlates NO(2) concentrations with derived indices of social deprivation and health. The study concludes that positive but weak relationship exists between air quality and social deprivation, and indicates that deprived population groups are disproportionately exposed to higher NO(2) levels. The relationship between air quality and health status of the population is weak. There is a strong relationship between social deprivation and health status of the population. The study concludes that RUC scenarios result in reducing disparity between affluent and deprived populations.     

产业发展对城市蔓延影响的差异性分析——以长江经济带104个城市为例

经济由高速增长向高质量转变的背景下,土地城市化快于人口城市化而带来的城市蔓延不利于城市的高质量可持续发展。基于2001~2015年长江经济带面板数据考察了产业发展对城市蔓延的差异性影响，研究发现：（1）总体上，在产业结构方面，随着第二产业就业比重的增加，城市蔓延度提高。而随着第三产业就业比重增加时，城市蔓延减缓，这其中起主要作用的是生活性服务业。（2）从城市规模角度来看，第二产业对城市蔓延的影响，在中小城市起显著的作用，而在大城市不显著。第三产业在大城市起显著的抑制性作用，而在中小城市不显著，这主要与不同城市规模下集聚经济效益的发挥有关。（3）从蔓延类型角度来看，推动城市蔓延向集约型方向发展的主要是第三产业中的生活性服务业，而第二产业以及生产性服务业推动城市蔓延向过度蔓延方向发展。长江经济带应合理布局第二产业，大力发展第三产业，提高产业的集聚效应,同时避免不合理开发和盲目招商引资而造成的城市蔓延。     

全球气候变化与区域气象及空气质量的关系研究——以成都市为例

区域气象条件及空气质量或与全球气候变化关系密切。研究通过分析不同气候条件下成都地区1951～2017年主要气象要素及其2013～2017年大气污染物浓度变化趋势,并结合大数据挖掘技术探究厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件与成都地区气象及空气质量的关系。结果表明,全球气候变化对区域气象及空气质量影响明显。异常气候造成成都地区气温、降水、风速、日照时长等气象条件发生明显变化。这些变化通常利于大气扩散条件的改善而使污染物浓度下降,但相应时期的臭氧浓度却有所升高。研究同时利用KNN大数据挖掘算法评估不同气候条件下气象和减排对空气质量改善的贡献。结果显示,在全球厄尔尼诺发生频繁的2015年,成都地区重污染天数明显减少,气象和减排的贡献率分别为27%和73%;而在全球拉尼娜现象频发的2016年,成都地区空气质量也有明显改善,重污染天数的减少有42%归功于气象条件的变化,几乎与大气污染物的减排贡献相当。因此,为实现空气质量的有效改善,空气质量改善管理政策的制定,既要从源头上控制污染物的排放,同时也应考虑全球气候变化的影响。     

区域大气污染协同减排补偿机制研究

在环境规制逐步从污染排放控制向环境质量管理转型的背景下,现行的单一行政区属地治理和管理模式对区域性流动性的大气污染已力不从心,导致减排目标与环境质量改善不对应,因此,跨行政区域的合作治理亟需管理手段和机制的创新。本文基于大气环境质量目标视角,构建了区域上层管理部门(如国家或区域)和下层所辖各区的双层博弈模型,明确了大气污染减排成本与减排量的函数关系,利用定量分析方法模拟计算出区域减排总成本最小化状况下的污染协同减排补偿标准及各辖区所承担的污染物减排量,提出对实际减排量低于(超过)责任减排量的辖区给予补偿费的征收(奖励)的管理机制,通过市场调节手段实现区域内大气污染协同减排的目的。在此基础上,以我国大气污染重点防控区(长株潭城市群)为例,采用2004—2015年的统计面版数据,对区域内所辖各区二氧化硫减排量和协同减排补偿标准进行了定量测算。计算结果表明:为达到国家设定的2030年环境空气质量总体目标,长株潭区域二氧化硫协同减排的补偿费标准为1 506元/t,以该补偿标准作为区域层面二氧化硫协同减排调控手段,可在区域污染治理总成本最小化的同时,实现域内各辖区自身利益的最大化。文章最后就区域污染协同减排补偿机制提出了实施思路及保障措施。基于此研究,区域环境管理部门应设立专项的协同减排基金,专门用于区域大气质量的改善和提高:一方面用于激励大气污染实际减排量超出本行政区域责任减排量的辖区,目的是为区域空气质量比预期目标更高、对居民健康产生的正向外部性买单;另一方面用于对历史包袱重、减排压力大、治理能力弱的辖区给予一定的政策倾斜或扶持;同时,区域环境管理部门还应从组织机构、交易平台、法律法规等方面提供保障措施,确保协同减排补偿机制的顺利实施。     

Urban sprawl,public transport,and increasing CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions: the case of Metro Manila,Philippines

Current international discussions on the increasingly critical levels of carbon emissions from the transportation sector commonly attribute the causality chain to urban sprawl growth–private car use–carbon emission. An often assumed development context of this causality chain is that common of developed country urbanization. However, in the particular context of developing country urbanization, urban sprawl and associated workplace–home distanciation may lead to more intensive use by the urban workforce of public mass transportation system, instead of higher dependence on private vehicle travel. Thus, the source of the rise in carbon emission may actually be the public transportation system. Utilizing mixed methods, combining quantitative (origin–destination matrices) and qualitative data gathering and analysis, the authors present a case study in Metro Manila which has been experiencing sprawl and increasing costs and unaffordability of land and housing in the workforce’s vicinity of employment. This, in turn, causes greater distances of daily travel between home and workplace using public transportation system. When the latter is characterized by fuel-inefficient small vehicles with second-hand engines, higher carbon emission results. We argue that the convergence of multiple interacting factors such as urban sprawl, lack of affordability of housing near the centres of employment, high dependence of commuters on public transports, longer distance travel by commuters, and low fuel efficiency of the public utility vehicles primarily causes the increase in CO₂ emission from the transport sector. Implications of this case to policy scoping of immediate and long-term state responses for carbon emission mitigation in transportation sector are discussed.     

中国收入差距与环境质量关系的实证检验--基于对环境库兹涅茨曲线的扩展

在对环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说扩展的基础上,分析和验证了收入差距与环境质量之间的关系。应用联合国统计司公布的中国1986—2002年度二氧化碳排放总量数据,通过计量模型论证收入差距与环境质量之间的假设。结果发现,收入差距扩大会刺激二氧化碳排放,收入差距越大这种影响的效果就会越恶劣。而且收入差距因素还会通过作用于经济增长,促使经济增长对环境的污染程度加强。延迟转折点的到来。因此,我国目前在促进经济增长的同时,要以提高社会整体福利为目的,缩小居民收入差距,这将有利于环境质量的改善和提高。     

武汉城市圈城市化发展与环境空气质量关系探讨

城市化与环境空气的相互作用关系研究,是引导城市可持续发展和环境政策制定的重要依据。利用主成分分析法和集成的环境空气质量指数分别评价了城市化和环境空气质量水平,进而拟合了两者的最优高次多项式曲线。结果发现:12001年来,武汉城市圈的城市化综合水平表现出以武汉为核心,黄石和鄂州为次核心,咸宁、孝感等为边缘的层级结构;2城市圈空气污染的重心主要在武汉市和鄂东南的黄冈、鄂州、黄石等地区,PM10是首要污染物;3不同城市由于其自然地理背景、城市发展类型、经济产业结构的不同,环境空气效应(关系)存在差异,在武汉城市圈内主要表现为三类:武汉市的复合型空气污染,黄石、鄂州等煤烟型为主的空气污染,以及咸宁、天门等煤烟和机动车尾气混合型的转变空气污染。未来,城市圈在生态环保一体化的进程中,需加强空气污染的联合防治,也需结合城市的自身特点采取有针对性的污染治理措施。     

Residents' Willingness to Pay for Improving Air Quality in Jinan,China

Abstract

Along with the progress of urbanization and environmental deterioration, residents' desire for improved air quality is increasing. In order to quantify an individual's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improved air quality in Jinan of eastern China, a contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed. A sample of 1,500 residents was chosen on the basis of multistage sampling methods with face-to-face interviews by using a series of hypothetical, open-ended scenario questions which were designed to elicit the respondents' WTP. Results showed that 59.7% of respondents were able to express their WTP and the mean WTP is 100 Chinese Yuan (CNY) per person per year. A probit model on the probability of a positive WTP and a regression model were developed to find the relationship between endogenous variables and WTP. Most parameters in the econometric analysis had the expected sign. Annual household income and expenditure on treating respiratory diseases significantly influence WTP. The rates of positive WTP and the monetary amount are larger for men than for women. Results also showed that people who lived in more polluted areas were willing to pay more for clean air. Unlike developed countries, clean air may only be considered as a public good in China in that more than 40% of respondents had no incentive to bear the costs of attempting to achieve better air quality, which indicates the relatively low environmental consciousness.     

环境健康价值评估中的年龄效应研究

在环境健康价值评估研究中,统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系是理论和实证研究焦点之一,也是重要的学术问题。长久以来,环境政策效益评估中是否应该赋予老年人较低的统计寿命价值一直存在广泛争议,且尚未得到一致性结论。通过设计选择实验,对北京市空气质量改善的健康效益进行了抽样调查,并采用MNL模型对北京市约500个居民的调查数据进行回归分析,估算了不同年龄人群对健康风险减少的支付意愿,针对中国人群中统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系进行实证探讨。结果表明:一方面,在总体样本中设置年龄虚拟变量,回归结果表明年龄变量系数的符号均显著为负,即年龄因素对减少空气污染带来的死亡风险降低的支付意愿具有显著的影响,年龄越大支付意愿相对越小;另一方面,不同年龄人群分组样本结果显示,统计寿命价值与年龄之间呈现"倒U型"关系,统计寿命价值在中国存在"老年折扣"现象。研究结果可为我国环境政策的健康效益分析中如何考虑年龄的影响提供重要依据。     

“2+26”城市治霾方案效果评估:以山东省为案例的研究

以京津冀大气污染传输通道“2+26”城市为对象的区域性雾霾专项治理已经开展两年有余。要判断“2+26”城市治霾方案的实施是否取得了显著成效需要通过科学的实证分析加以验证。采集山东省13个内陆城市2016—2018年每日空气质量指数(AQI)、六种单项污染物(PM 2.5、PM 10、SO 2、NO 2、CO、O 3)浓度以及气象条件等数据,以其中属于“2+26”城市的7城市作为实验组,其余6城市作为对照组,基于双重差分法,对“2+26”城市治霾方案在山东省相关城市的实施效果进行评估,试图分离方案实施所带来的环境效应。结果表明:①“2+26”城市治霾方案的实施总体上有效,对污染传输通道7城市空气质量指数(AQI)指标的降低发挥了显著作用。②“2+26”城市治霾方案对污染传输通道城市的PM 2.5、PM 10、CO浓度的降低有显著贡献,但对SO 2、NO 2和O 3指标的改善贡献并不明显。③对方案进行分时段动态效应分析发现,《京津冀及周边地区2017年大气污染防治工作方案》的发布并未对污染传输通道城市空气质量改善产生立竿见影的效果,而《京津冀及周边地区2017—2018年秋冬季大气污染综合治理攻坚行动方案》《京津冀及周边地区2018—2019年秋冬季大气污染综合治理攻坚行动方案》的落实和执行才是“2+26”城市治霾方案显著见效的保障。该研究在严格遵守双重差分法前提条件的同时,还通过了一系列稳健性检验确保评估结果的可靠性。     

基于选择实验方法的北京市空气质量价值评估

科学地评估空气质量的经济价值是政府制定空气污染治理政策的必要前提。近年来选择实验方法逐渐兴起,并被研究者广泛应用于环境价值评估。与其他陈述偏好方法相比,选择实验的一个优势是其具有更高的外部效度。选择实验方法在国内的应用研究尚处在起步阶段。本研究分别在2015年和2016年对北京市居民开展了两次基于选择实验方法的网络调查,在调查数据的基础上采用随机参数Logit和广义多元Logit模型分析了北京市居民对空气质量的偏好,并据此估算了空气质量价值。根据2015年样本的估算结果,雾霾天气(PM_(2.5)超标)和沙尘天气(PM_(10)超标)对北京市居民的平均边际价值分别为6.32元/d和2.69元/d;根据2016年样本的估算结果,两个价值分别为7.72元/d和2.81元/d。上述估算结果在两次调查样本中基本稳定,而且,在多种模型设定下都具有较强的稳健性,与近年来的同类研究结果基本一致。以2016年样本的估算结果为基础,2015年北京市雾霾天气和沙尘天气引起的价值损失分别为239.61亿元和45.13亿元,占北京市当年GDP总量的1.04%和0.20%。进一步研究发现,北京市2015年和2016年空气质量改善的价值均低于北京市政府同年用于治理空气污染投入的财政资金总量,说明资金使用效率有待进一步提高;此外,虽然空气质量对高收入居民具有更高的价值,但是,以收入水平为指标设计的累进税率并不比固定税率更优。     

Residents'''' Willingness to Pay for Improving Air Quality in Jinan, China

Along with the progress of urbanization and environmental deterioration, residents' desire for improved air quality is increasing. In order to quantify an individual's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improved air quality in Jinan of eastern China, a contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed. A sample of 1,500 residents was chosen on the basis of multistage sampling methods with face-to-face interviews by using a series of hypothetical, open-ended scenario questions which were designed to elicit the respondents' WTP. Results showed that 59.7% of respondents were able to express their WTP and the mean WTP is 100 Chinese Yuan (CNY) per person per year. A probit model on the probability of a positive WTP and a regression model were developed to find the relationship between endogenous variables and WTP. Most parameters in the econometric analysis had the expected sign. Annual household income and expenditure on treating respiratory diseases significantly influence WTP. The rates of positive WTP and the monetary amount are larger for men than for women. Results also showed that people who lived in more polluted areas were willing to pay more for clean air. Unlike developed countries, clean air may only be considered as a public good in China in that more than 40% of respondents had no incentive to bear the costs of attempting to achieve better air quality, which indicates the relatively low environmental consciousness.     

Integrated health impact assessment of travel behaviour: Model exploration and application to a fuel price increase

Transportation policy measures often aim to change travel behaviour towards more efficient transport. While these policy measures do not necessarily target health, these could have an indirect health effect.We evaluate the health impact of a policy resulting in an increase of car fuel prices by 20% on active travel, outdoor air pollution and risk of road traffic injury. An integrated modelling chain is proposed to evaluate the health impact of this policy measure. An activity-based transport model estimated movements of people, providing whereabouts and travelled kilometres. An emission- and dispersion model provided air quality levels (elemental carbon) and a road safety model provided the number of fatal and non-fatal traffic victims. We used kilometres travelled while walking or cycling to estimate the time in active travel. Differences in health effects between the current and fuel price scenario were expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY).A 20% fuel price increase leads to an overall gain of 1650 (1010–2330) DALY. Prevented deaths lead to a total of 1450 (890–2040) Years Life Gained (YLG), with better air quality accounting for 530 (180–880) YLG, fewer road traffic injuries for 750 (590–910) YLG and active travel for 170 (120–250) YLG. Concerning morbidity, mostly road safety led to 200 (120–290) fewer Years Lived with Disability (YLD), while air quality improvement only had a minor effect on cardiovascular hospital admissions. Air quality improvement and increased active travel mainly had an impact at older age, while traffic safety mainly affected younger and middle-aged people.This modelling approach illustrates the feasibility of a comprehensive health impact assessment of changes in travel behaviour. Our results suggest that more is needed than a policy rising car fuel prices by 20% to achieve substantial health gains. While the activity-based model gives an answer on what the effect of a proposed policy is, the focus on health may make policy integration more tangible. The model can therefore add to identifying win–win situations for both transport and health.     

Comparing urban air quality in Europe in real time a review of existing air quality indices and the proposal of a common alternative

The EU directives on air quality force member states to inform the public on the status of the ambient air quality. The Internet is commonly used for this purpose and often air quality is being presented as an index ranging from good to bad. A review of existing websites and air quality indices shows that the way air quality is interpreted differs considerably. The paper presents a new air quality index. The index is part of a project to develop a website dedicated to comparing air quality in European cities. The common air quality index (CAQI) is not aimed at replacing existing local indices. The CAQI is a set of two indices: one for roadside monitoring sites and one for average city background conditions. Differentiating between roadside and general city conditions is a first step in assuring consistence in the parameters that are being compared.     

Expansion of Urban Space and Land Use Control in the Process of Urbanization: an Overview

Urban expansion brought by the rapid progress of urbanization has caused many problems in China. It is a significant issue to evaluate the extent of urban expansion and to make appropriate controls over the sprawl of urban areas. With a comparative study of international experiences, this article analyzed the mechanism and consequences of urban expansion, reviewed the typical planning and financial policies adopted by other countries for controlling urban sprawl, and discussed the suitable densities of urba...