小康社会目标下的居民生活能源需求预测

从居民的基本需求着手,运用混合能源投入产出模型,预测我国在2020年全面实现小康社会条件下,由居民最终消费引起的能源直接和间接需求。结果表明,2020年我国由居民衣食住行等基本生活需求所产生的一次能源总需求将在2002年的基础上增加14.2亿t标煤;其中间接需求占86%。从能源需求结构来看,煤炭的增长速度最低,但仍然占一次能源60%以上;石油和一次电力需求增长较快,石油需求全部来自于经济系统的中间消耗,而电力需求中40%来自于直接生活能源消费。在能源效率和经济结构不变的条件下,这意味着2020年我国的一次能源需求将至少达到29.40亿t标煤,排放二氧化碳约66.55亿t。上述结果仅考虑了居民部门的最终消费;如果考虑累计资本形成和净出口贸易增长的影响,能源消费和碳排放值会更高。因此,提高能源利用效率,引导居民合理节约的消费行为,是我国可持续发展目标下的必然要求。     

我国煤炭消费现状与未来煤炭需求预测

在分析1991年以来我国煤炭资源消费量变化以及煤炭消费占能源消费总量比重变化的基础上。指出电力、钢铁、建材和化工是煤炭资源的主要消耗行业，2005年它们消耗的煤炭占我国煤炭消费总量的85％。考虑这四大行业能源消费构成的特点、煤炭需求的主要决定因素、未来能源效率提高潜力及产业结构调整等因素，采用主要耗煤部门法预测2010、2020年我国国内煤炭需求量。考虑未来我国经济增长速度及我国节能目标等相关因素，采用单位产值能耗法。能源弹性系数法预测未来我国能源需求。然后采用相关部门对除煤炭以外的其他一次能源需求的预测，间接求得我国2010、2020年煤炭需求量。比较两种预测方法的结果。最终得出我国煤炭需求量为2010年26．2亿-28．5亿t、2020年30．9亿-34．9亿t．发电用煤仍是拉动煤炭消费增长的主要因素。     

基于BRIAM模型的“一带一路”国家低碳能源发展情景研究

针对"一带一路"应对气候变化国际合作中的长期问题决策支撑和研究需要,作者基于自主开发的"一带一路"综合评估模型(BRIAM)和最新可得数据,对"一带一路"国家自主贡献的实施及在《巴黎协定》温升2℃目标下低碳能源发展进行了情景分析和展望。研究结果表明,通过实施国家自主贡献,"一带一路"国家到2030年预期每年可减排32亿t左右的CO2,但要最终实现全球2℃温升目标,如果没有公平合理的分配方案或额外的资金、技术和能力支持,"一带一路"国家将面临较为严峻的挑战。"一带一路"国家的非化石能源在一次能源消费中的占比需要从2015年的约12.2%提升至2030年的21%以上、2050年的46%以上,同时碳捕获和封存技术(CCS)在化石能源中的使用比例将达到41%左右。到21世纪末,"一带一路"能源供给部门的总投资变化并不大,但投资结构发生了显著的变化,在低碳能源及其配套新型基础设施领域的绿色投资占比大大提高,累计投资将超过100万亿美元。化石能源领域的累计投资从BAU情景下的约71万亿美元分别急剧下降至NDC情景下的60万亿美元和2℃情景下的28万亿美元左右。此外,碳价格的变化还会对"一带一路"国家的电力、运输等要素价格产生影响。在逆全球化的挑战下,积极推动"一带一路"应对气候变化国际合作和低碳能源基础设施建设,是充分展现中国在全球气候治理中负责任的大国形象和推动构建人类命运共同体的重要举措,并将引领各方在绿色技术、绿色贸易、绿色产能和绿色金融等领域的发展与合作,共享低碳发展的绿色效益。     

国际跨区碳市场及其能源经济影响评估

建立全球性跨区域碳市场被认为是全球气候治理的有效方式而一直备受关注。即将在2015年建成的欧盟-澳大利亚链接碳市场将成为国际跨区域碳市场的重要尝试。为分析建立多国参与的国际跨区碳市场的全球减排效果及其对各参与国的能源经济影响,本文采用表达能源经济系统相互关系的全球动态可计算一般均衡模型做出定量研究。模型将全球经济体分为20个经济部门和19个区域,并刻画有17种能源生产技术。同时为模拟全球碳市场政策,模型将碳排放权作为与化石能源消费相绑定的必要投入考虑到经济部门的各个生产与消费环节当中。在外生设置碳排放配额的同时,模型允许碳排放权像商品一样在不同区域与部门之间进行交易。考虑到全球碳市场的进展速度,本文选取2020年为研究时点,分别设计了四种情景(参考情景、独立碳市场情景、欧盟-澳大利亚链接情景以及中国-欧盟-澳大利亚链接情景)来探讨欧盟、中国、澳大利亚三国参与下的全球碳市场及其影响。研究表明,在各国2020年减排目标约束下各国碳市场的排放权价格有较大差别,澳大利亚碳价最高(32美元/t CO2),欧盟价格稍低(17.5美元/t CO2),而中国碳价最低(10美元/t CO2)。同时尽管中国的相对减排量(3%)低于欧盟(9%)与澳大利亚(18%),中国的绝对减排量也远远大于欧盟与澳大利亚两个国家。由于中国相对减排成本较低,中国加入欧盟-澳大利亚链接碳市场将促使国际碳价从22美元/t降至12美元/t,欧盟和澳大利亚分别向中国转移71%和81%的本国减排任务,同时分别获得0.03%和0.06%的福利增加。由于排放约束影响,中国工业部门的能效提升1.4%,煤炭发电量下降3.3%,而清洁能源发电量则上升3.5%。     

面向“十三五”低碳发展的河南省碳减排路径

为践行中国政府到2020年的减排承诺,"十三五"期间区域碳排放预测及碳减排模式研究成为关注的焦点。文章构建拓展的IPAT模型预测BAU、CP、LC三种社会经济发展情景下的能源消费与CO_2排放趋势,进而选定"十三五"期间河南省的碳减排路径。研究表明,2000年以来河南省能源消费及CO_2排放总量与人均量均不断攀升。河南省能源消费与CO_2排放的预测量在三种情景下呈现不同的能源与部门结构特点,不同情景下的碳减排任务完成难度有所差异,LC情景下的低碳模式有助于实现"十三五"期间的碳减排目标。河南省的低碳发展本质上需要经济发展方式的转变。     

碳交易的“能源-经济-环境”影响及碳价合理区间测算

构造纳入碳交易模块以及在生产模块CES函数中纳入碳排放成本的四层嵌套宏观经济CGE模型,采用2007年投入产出数据构造了社会核算矩阵(SAM),用以分析和评价不同总量减排目标情景下,碳价引入对宏观和产业部门层面经济产出、能源消费和碳减排的影响,以及相应合理的碳价水平,得到结论:①在宏观层面上,碳价越高,碳减排效果越显著,GDP损失越大,能源消费越少。综合考虑宏观经济损失和减排效果,确定了各情景下的最优碳价以及合理碳价区间,其中,在减排目标为10%时,碳市场能接受幅度更大的价格波动(6.9-35€/tC)冲击,宏观经济损失相对小,引入碳市场是最好的选择;参考Kaya等式的因素分解,说明碳价所引致的总碳减排效果,主要来自于能源强度效应和技术进步效应;引入碳价,不仅能够降低能源消费,还会引致能源消费结构向低碳方向调整,煤炭消费明显下降。②在产业部门层面,各产业部门特别是能源部门经济产出水平降低,但总体产业结构影响不大;对部门能源消费产生的主要影响是,能源部门和交通运输部门的能源消费总量显著下降;将部门合成能源单位利用成本分解为能源自身价格变动和碳排放成本两部分,得出合成能源单位利用成本变动主要由碳排放成本引起的结论;进一步,能源密集型部门的碳排放成本较高,同时实现的减排率也相对较高,但减排效果仍不充分,建议采取能源资源税和交通燃油税等激励政策,保持必要的能源市场价格水平,同时促进煤炭和交通领域的减排。     

基于CDECGE模型的中国能源需求情景分析

从我国未来经济社会发展目标出发,根据不同的政策目标设定了3种经济发展情景:基准情景、强化低碳情景和粗放型情景。分析了3种情景下我国未来的一次能源需求量、能源消费结构及CO2排放趋势,为把握我国未来的能源安全形势、控制温室气体排放提供了有效的政策分析工具。研究方法是在Monash模型的基础上构造的我国能源经济动态可计算一般均衡模型(CDECGE)。结果显示,按照现在的经济增长方式和增长率预期,如果没有额外的政策措施,2020年之前我国能源需求仍将快速增长,但在适度的低碳政策引导下,我国2020年的能源需求将控制在45.52亿t标煤,CO2排放强度将达到1.635 t/万元,相对2005年下降45%。碳税作为一种经济减排政策,会有效的降低CO2排放,减少化石能源的需求,使经济向低碳社会转型,从而实现2020年CO2排放强度降低的减排目标。因此,为减缓能源需求量的快速增长趋势,实现减排目标,可以从改善产业结构、实行碳税政策等方面采取措施,优化能源结构,实现经济结构转型,从而保障能源供应安全和控制温室气体排放。     

2020年中国低碳经济发展前景研究

中国低碳经济发展涉及众多因素,区分这些因素对制定低碳政策具有重要意义.本文通过构建阻碍中国低碳经济发展影响因素的指标体系,采用图论方法建立影响因素的关联矩阵,运用布尔运算得到各影响因素的层级关系,得出低碳经济发展的主要影响因素为经济粗放式发展、居民低碳意识淡薄和缺乏低碳专业人才.根据主要影响因素从基础情景、低碳情景和受挫情景定量模拟了中国2020年低碳经济发展水平,预测结果表明,在低碳情景下2020年能源消耗总量大致是41亿吨标准煤,C02排放量23亿吨碳当量,煤炭占一次能源需求量的60.5%,石油占18.4%,天然气占7.5%,核能占3.3%,水能占8.5%,其它新能源占2.1%.从终端能源使用部门来看,第二产业尤其是高耗能行业比重大幅下降,现代服务业比重提高,对能源需求下降起到至关重要的作用.但是随着我国经济发展和居民生活水平不断提高,居民能耗呈现不断上升的特点,因此提高居民低碳意识和倡导低碳消费有利于实现我国低碳目标.此情景模拟取得了较好的预测效果,对中国的低碳经济发展政策具有一定的借鉴意义.     

中国经济发展与能源消费及碳排放解耦分析

随着经济快速发展,我国的能源供给和生态环境面临着双重压力,为实现经济与环境双赢,应使经济增长与能源消费及二氧化碳排放之间的耦合关系"解耦",走出一条绿色、低碳的可持续发展道路。我国经济增长与能源消费、能源消费与二氧化碳排放的解耦具有重要的现实意义,既是建设"两型社会"的要求也是科学发展的必然选择,更是实现"生态文明"和"美丽中国"的主要途径。本文在研究发达国家经济发展与能源消费、能源消费与二氧化碳排放解耦规律的基础上,回顾了我国过往30多年的经济发展、能源消费和二氧化碳排放历程,提出我国未来发展的三种情景假设,即惯性情景、低碳情景和2度情景。研究认为,惯性情景是一种高碳发展情景,既不可能实现也不允许发生;2度情景的实现有较大难度,是进一步努力的方向;我国应按照低碳情景模式发展。我国未来能源发展路径应在科学供给满足合理需求前提下,按照科学产能实施国内能源生产,加强能源消费总量控制,特别是煤和石油等高碳化石能源使用量,改善能源消费结构。能源生产要低碳、清洁,能源消费要节能优先、绿色高效。降低单位GDP能源消费量,控制人均能源消费量增长;降低单位能源消费产生的温室气体量,控制人均排放量。如按假设的低碳情景发展,中国发展进入新常态,GDP预期增速虽有所下降,但经济总量仍保持良好增长态势,2020年后我国经济增长与能源消费开始呈现逐步解耦的趋势,中国煤炭和石油消费量在2030年前达到峰值,我国经济增长与高碳能源(煤炭和石油)消费将在2030年前解耦;至2050年,我国能源消费趋于饱和,增量接近零,而经济总量继续增长,中国经济发展与能源消费接近绝对解耦;中国二氧化碳排放峰值将于2030年(或之前)到达,能源消费与二氧化碳排放在2030年(或之前)实现绝对解耦。     

中国能源CO_2排放峰值方案及政策建议北大核心CSCDCSSCI

能源活动贡献了CO2排放总量的主要部分。2014年11月,我国政府通过《中美气候变化联合声明》,首次正式提出于2030年左右实现CO2排放峰值,显然,未来时期我国CO2排放总量的峰值取决于能源活动CO2排放的峰值,能源活动CO2排放量又取决于能源消费总量和结构,而能源消费总量和结构又从根本上取决于经济、产业、人口发展和资源环境约束及宏观能源经济财税政策设计。鉴于经济、产业、人口发展、资源环境约束及能源经济政策制度设计对能源消费总量结构、CO2排放的复杂影响机制,本文基于能流图和能源供应消费成本最小化原理,构建跨期能源系统优化和碳排放模型IESOCEM作为定量研究工具,从"新常态"下我国2015-2050年经济、产业、人口等宏观指标预期发展水平出发,预测出能源服务需求量,并考虑已有能源政策目标的硬性约束,对未来时期能源消费总量结构及CO2排放量进行测算得出如下经济可行的峰值方案:一次能源消费总量将从2015年的39.1亿tce逐步增长到2050年的62.65亿tce,年度能源消费总量的增速逐步趋缓,从2015年的年度同比增速1.8%逐步降低到2050年度的0.6%;煤炭占一次能源消费总量比重将从64%持续降低到45%,石油占比从17%下降到8%,天然气占比从7%上升到11%,非化石能源占比将从12%上升到36%;能源活动CO2排放量经历先较快增长达到峰值后缓慢下降的趋势,从2015年的80.1亿t增长到2030的93.5亿t,2015-2030年平均每年增加排放0.89亿t CO2,并在2030年达到峰值,此后CO2排放开始缓慢下降,逐步下降到2050年的91.5亿t,2031-2050年平均每年减少排放0.1亿t。将我国能源活动CO2排放峰值方案与2013年能源消费及CO2排放实际情况进行对比分析的基础上,本文提出了我国能源活动CO2排放2030年达到峰值的政策建议:一是鼓励推广采用公私合作模式,吸引民间资本投入可再生能源基础设施建设,大力开发和利用可再生能源,促使可再生能源在未来能源消费增量中占绝对优势,同时加快可再生能源对化石能源消费存量的替代;二是由我国发起成立天然气进口国家联盟组织,增强天然气进口议价权,积极进口利用海外天然气资源,鼓励民间资本投入,加快国内天然气管网和储气设施建设;三是改革完善资源税、环境保护税、消费税制度,从宏观财税制度设计上加快推动能源资源利用的集约低碳转型。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Dynamics of Restoration Processes in the Idle Solonetz Ecosystems in the Southern Transural Region

The initial period of idleness in the solonetz ecosystems of the southern Transural Region is characterized by a significant variability of their soil–plant communities, which is determined by natural periodicity and general direction of the process of ecosystem restoration. Selective consumption of salinizing ions by the plants growing on idle land activates the development of desalinization processes.