长三角城市群旅游场强时空异质性及演化机理

以长江三角洲城市群26个城市为研究单元，综合运用主成分因子分析、可达性分析、改进的场强模型、地理探测器模型等方法对2000～2016年长江三角洲城市群区域旅游场强时空格局的演化及其形成机理展开研究。结果表明：（1）长三角城市群城市旅游综合规模差异化显著，但趋于均衡化发展态势；（2）区域旅游场强具有明显的时空异质性，交通“轴线”扩散明显，空间结构由最初的“Z”字型发展为“网状”，最后演变为“树枝状”，旅游场强类型呈现稳定的圈层包围结构，不断地由低级向高级演变；（3）旅游场强格局演化主要由交通优势度、旅游产业发展水平、地区经济发展水平、旅游资源禀赋和政策导向等多方面因素共同作用形成的结果。     

皖江城市群旅游经济空间联系格局

在皖江城市群作为承接长三角产业转移示范区背景下及区域交通网络化、区域旅游一体化发展的新形式下，对皖江城市群旅游经济联系和影响范围研究就显得必要。以该地区10城市的旅游经济联系为主线，以界定旅游中心节点、测算旅游经济联系量和场强模型为手段，构建皖江城市群旅游圈。研究表明：以合肥和芜湖为双核的皖江城市群大旅游圈，其内部分为3个次旅游经济圈，北部以合肥为中心，包括六安区域、滁州和含巢湖整个水面的大部分区域的合肥旅游圈；西南以安庆为中心、池州为副中心，含铜陵一部分地区的安庆旅游圈；东南以芜湖为中心、宣城为副中心，包括马鞍山和部分巢湖区域、部分铜陵区域的芜湖旅游圈。最后提出了3个旅游经济圈发展的旅游规划建议     

山地民族地区旅游流网络结构及流动方式研究——以恩施州为例

恩施州是资源富集的山地民族旅游区，近年来旅游扶贫政策的推广为州内旅游业发展提供了新的机遇。正确理解和把握游客在州内的流动规模、流动方向和流动方式，对政府部门和旅游企业的科学决策和合理规划具有重要意义。通过提取网络游记信息，应用社会网络分析方法和ArcGIS空间分析方法对恩施州旅游流的空间网络结构和流动方式进行分析，研究表明：（1）恩施州旅游流网络结构整体较分散，各旅游节点间流动性不强；（2）恩施市，利川市和鹤峰县是州内旅游流交通集散中心，恩施大峡谷是恩施州旅游流网络的旅游集散中心；（3）恩施大峡谷、恩施土司城、土家女儿城和恩施市区4个节点是恩施州旅游流的核心节点，这4个节点之间联系较为紧密，也是联结其余节点的核心节点；（4）恩施州旅游流季节差异性较为明显，游客量主要集中在夏季和秋季；（5）游客主要选择大巴和自驾在恩施州内进行移动，州内旅游交通线路发展良好，但公共交通仍不能完全满足游客的出行需求；（6）旅游资源供需呈现不匹配特点，游客在州内空间流动较少受旅游节点等级和级别的影响。     

安徽省公路交通与经济发展水平测度及协调性研究

在中国经济发展“新常态”和“长江经济带”战略的宏观背景下，对公路交通与经济发展水平的测度及时空格局进行分析，能够为区域协调均衡发展提供较好的理论和实践指导。以安徽省16个地级市为实证，选择2005、2010、2015年3个时间节点，构建综合评价指标体系，运用熵值法、变异系数、协调指数等方法，分析公路交通和经济发展水平的时空格局和协调发展程度。结果表明：（1）安徽省经济发展水平变异系数较大，公路交通变异系数较小，二者区域内部差异明显；（2）安徽省公路交通发展水平逐年提升，在空间上呈现由“Z”型向“V”型转变继而转向“Z”型的分布格局；经济发展水平整体提升，局部波动，在空间上表征出典型的以合芜马为核心的“核心-边缘”分布特征；（3）公路交通与经济发展水平协调程度整体由协调向失调转变，在不同的时间序列上形成了不同的城市发展主导类型，以协同型和交通滞后型为主。 关键词： 公路交通；经济发展；时空格局；协调性；安徽省     

山岳型遗产地环境容量动态管理研究

遗产地环境容量的测量与管理,是涉及许多学科的研究命题。传统的环境容量研究是以静态测量为技术手段,获得的是每一个特定空间静态容人量的最佳值和饱和值。但现实中影响环境容量的主体——游客的行为是动态的,而且在山岳型遗产地的线形游览空间中,不同节点的环境空间特征是多样化的,当游客集中到访时,同样规模的客流对不同特征的环境空间所造成的压力不同,这就使静态测量的环境容量值在管理实践中失去了效力。本文引入时间维度、遵循旅游流时空聚集规律提出了山岳型遗产地环境容量动态管理的新方法——旅游流时空卡口识别,并以世界自然和文化遗产泰山为案例进行了实证研究,运用时间地理学方法分析旅游流时空分布特征识别泰山中路旅游流时空卡口。实证分析结果表明,泰山中路旅游流时空卡口主要集中分布在红门、经石峪、中天门、南天门、天街、玉皇顶、日观峰七个空间区域,而时间上则相对分散,在各个时段都出现了旅游流时空卡口;整个泰山中路的旅游流时空卡口仅占全部时空区域5.52%,但却吸引了接近50.04%的游客在此聚集停留。由此可见,对于时空卡口的观测和管理,是山岳型遗产地保护与管理工作的最关键环节。文章最后从调节游客个体行为、动态控制旅游容量、建立智慧旅游预警系统三个方面,讨论了旅游流时空卡口识别法在山岳型遗产地环境容量管理中的应用前景。旅游流时空卡口概念的提出及识别方法的构建,不仅在理论上弥补了旅游环境容量测算体系的缺陷,更在遗产地环境容量、资源与游客安全管理体系中解决了旅游流动态监控、及时预警、提前调节等关键问题,实现了遗产地旅游开放状态下的环境、资源与游客管理的安全可控。     

湖南境内武陵山片区旅游产出规模分异、质量与空间结构初探

旅游产出规模与旅游产业的辐射带动作用息息相关，综合运用位序-规模理论模型、基尼系数（G）、离散系数（CV）、赫芬达尔指数（Hn）、首位度（S）定量分析了湖南境内武陵山片区的县市2010～2015年旅游产出规模分布与规模差异变化；通过旅游规模的质量指数来评价具体县市的旅游产出规模质量，并根据规模高、低和质量的优、良、普、差划分为8个等级类型，在此基础上，采用社会网络分析方法对片区旅游产出规模的网络节点、空间结构再分析，通过Pajek和GIS进行可视化展现。研究发现：⑴湖南境内武陵山片区的旅游产出规模的集聚程度较高，旅游收入规模与旅游人次规模在分布演进的趋势上存在非同步性，当前阶段旅游产出规模的绝对差异程度表现在旅游收入与旅游人次上较高，但是相对差异程度在逐渐减弱；⑵旅游产出规模质量等级Ⅰ型占比仅1/4，Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型、Ⅳ型空缺，总数占3/4的低规模的4种类型的县市旅游产出规模质量亟待改善；⑶中心度、结构洞等指标的变化反映了随着片区内旅游流的流动与扩散效果的加强，传统旅游县市在整个网络结构中的重要程度在降低，而新兴旅游县市的影响力在逐渐提高，因此缩小了县市间旅游经济发展的差距；⑷大片区旅游发展规划有利于武陵山片区旅游产出规模的均衡化，更大程度的释放旅游扶贫的效用     

基于SBM-DEA模型的中部地区资源环境效率格局演化及成因机理分析

资源环境是制约区域发展的重要影响因素,区域资源环境的利用是否有效是衡量地区综合发展水平的关键指标之一。因此对区域资源环境效率格局及其成因机理进行时空动态模拟,不仅有助于人们了解区域投入产出的过程与效益,同时又能为相关部门制定区域发展规划以及缓解区域人地矛盾提供参考依据。利用SBM-DEA模型分析2005~2014年间中部地区资源环境效率时空分异特征,并探讨了造成其格局演化的成因机理,得到如下结论:(1)从资源环境效率结果来看,2005~2014年中部地区资源环境效率总体呈现稳步上升态势;(2)省会城市、长江和京广等国家发展轴线的重要节点城市资源环境效率较高,远离长江、京广等重要轴线的城市资源环境效率较低的空间分布格局逐步形成;(3)从资源环境效率与投入产出的耦合关系来看,中部地区75%左右的城市处于Ⅰ类型,较少城市处于Ⅱ类型,极少数城市处于Ⅲ~ⅩⅢ类型。近10 a来中部地区普遍处于低投入、低产出、低污染的发展阶段,资源环境效率较高及以上城市数量先减少后增加,中等效率的城市数量先增加后趋于稳定,效率较低及以下的城市数量呈逐步减少的趋势;(4)促进资源环境效率的主导因素为地区经济发展水平,制约资源环境效率的主导因素为能源消耗。     

长江三角洲典型城市工业用地价格偏离时空差异及影响因素研究

以长江三角洲地区典型城市为例，采用引入土地要素的C D生产函数模型估算不同城市的工业用地要素价格，深入探讨不同地区工业用地价格偏离情况的时空差异与影响因素。研究表明：（1）2009~2013年长江三角洲地区工业经济增长和生产结构主要依靠大量的资本投入，劳动要素投入的边际生产率最小；（2）长江三角洲地区工业用地价格偏离水平时空差异显著。近年来工业用地价格偏离总体水平逐渐提高，由东部地区至西部地区，工业用地价格的低估程度不断加大，分为轻微偏离区域、普通偏离区域、严重偏离区域这3种类型，且不同类别城市的工业用地价格偏离变化趋势分化明显；（3）经济发展水平、工业用地稀缺性、工业化程度、市场化程度对地区工业用地现实价格的低估现象有着明显的抑制效应，而工业行业规模和招商引资行为对地区工业用地现实价格的低估现象有着明显的促进效应。     

秦岭南北地区农业气候资源时空变化特征

利用秦岭南北地区1960~2016年47个气象站点的观测资料，运用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、相关分析与反距离加权插值等方法分析了秦岭南北地区光、热、水等农业气候资源的时空变化特征。结果表明：1960年以来，秦岭南北地区气温、≥10℃活动积温呈显著增加趋势，1995年后气温快速上升，并在2002年增温达到显著水平。春、冬、秋季增温明显，空间上秦岭以北增温倾向率大于秦岭以南。 1960~2016年，秦岭南北地区降水量总体呈微弱下降趋势，从时间上看，1995年前降水量以下降为主，1995年后降水量转为上升趋势；从空间上看，1960~2016年，下降较明显地区为秦岭以北、嘉陵江沿线，其次为汉水流域丹江口水库区域；部分地区呈现微弱上升趋势，主要分布在巴巫谷地、汉水流域大巴山等山地段和秦岭南坡东部。相对湿度呈微弱下降趋势；日照时数呈显著下降趋势，四季下降程度为夏>冬>秋>春，下降显著地区为研究区东部平原、汉中盆地、关中盆地及巴巫谷地。 关键词： 农业气候资源，时空变化，秦岭南北地区     

基于等级-网络分析框架的泛长江三角洲中心城市评价研究

城市中心性既体现在城市的等级位序，亦表现为城市在网络体系中的节点连通性以及节点之间的“流”强度。将区域城市等级体系和关系网络研究相结合，是城市体系理论与实践研究可探索的方向。以泛长江三角洲52个城市为研究对象，通过中心城市指数表征城市的等级中心性，企业网络联系测度城市的网络中心性，结合城市的等级中心性和网络中心性特征进行中心城市评价。将泛长江三角洲地区中心城市划分为了5个等级和7种类型，分别是：1个全球城市:上海；3个国家中心城市:杭州、南京、苏州；温州等6个区域等级中心城市；宁波等8个区域网络枢纽城市；盐城等8个地区等级中心城市；淮北等6个地区网络枢纽城市以及19个地方一般城市。基于对中心城市的类型划分，可进一步研究提出针对不同类型城市的分类引导政策。通过提升基础设施连通度、延伸产业链等措施来提升等级中心性较高城市的系统开放性；通过强化要素资源集聚，提高城市服务水平等促进关系网络枢纽城市的等级水平。 关键词： 中心城市；等级体系；关系网络；泛长江三角洲     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Dynamics of Restoration Processes in the Idle Solonetz Ecosystems in the Southern Transural Region

The initial period of idleness in the solonetz ecosystems of the southern Transural Region is characterized by a significant variability of their soil–plant communities, which is determined by natural periodicity and general direction of the process of ecosystem restoration. Selective consumption of salinizing ions by the plants growing on idle land activates the development of desalinization processes.