基于地理加权回归克里金的降水数据融合及其在水文预报中的应用

地理加权回归克里金(GWRK)是在地理加权回归(GWR)基础上扩展得到的一种既能考虑回归关系的空间非平稳性又能考虑回归变量空间自相关性的降水数据融合方法。以赣江流域为例,在评价TRMM卫星数据精度的基础上,分别以GWRK和GWR方法构建了站点-卫星降水数据融合模型,然后采用降水融合数据驱动GR4J水文模型进行水文预报。根据站点尺度降水融合数据精度及水文预报表现,对GWRK和GWR构建的降水融合模型效果进行评价,结果表明:较之GWR方法,GWRK方法能较明显的提高降水融合数据在站点尺度上的精度,但是由于输入到水文模型中的数据为面降水数据,受空间均化的影响,对水文预报精度的提高不如对站点尺度降水融合数据精度的提高明显。     

TRMM 3B42卫星降水数据在赣江流域径流模拟中的应用

以赣江流域为研究区,基于观测降水和TRMM准实时数据(3B42RTV6、3B42RTV7)和分析数据(3B42V6、3B42V7),驱动VIC水文模型,开展卫星降水产品在赣江流域的水文模拟,评估TRMM降水产品在水文模拟中的应用能力。结果表明:(1)在赣江流域,3B42V7估算的降水与实测降水的对比结果最好,3B42RTV6的估算精度最低,3B42RTV7较3B42RTV6在赣江流域的降水估算精度提升非常明显;(2)在径流模拟方面,3B42V6和3B42V7在日尺度上尽管对洪峰的模拟有所偏差,但模拟结果仍能反映径流变化特征,在月尺度上模拟结果精度较高,纳什系数均在0.9以上,并且二者在4、5月的径流模拟结果较好,7、8月的模拟结果较差,而3B42RTV6对径流的模拟能力较差,日径流量和月径流量均呈现明显低估,3B42RTV7对径流的模拟结果比3B42RTV6有明显改善,可以满足实时水文预报的需求。     

TRMM降水产品在鄱阳湖流域的精度评价

为对比TRMM 3B42 V6和V7两种版本的降水产品在鄱阳湖流域的估算精度,了解TRMM卫星资料在中国南方湿润区的应用前景,利用2003~2010年V6和V7在鄱阳湖流域的降水产品以及同期实测降水数据,从不同时间和空间尺度对比二者在鄱阳湖流域降水的估算精度。结果表明:(1)在年降水总量上,V6和V7的降水估算与实测降水差别不大,而在季和月降水尺度上,V6和V7的估算精度开始有所下降,但V7比V6结果要好一些,V7与实测降水的相关系数比V6与实测降水的相关系数高出0.1以上;(2)空间分布来看,V6和V7都能刻画出鄱阳湖流域降水自西南向东北方向递增的空间格局,但在修水流域和赣南地区,V6与实测降水偏差较大,而V7在这两个区域的降水估算精度有较大改善。总的来说,在鄱阳湖流域,V7估算的降水精度比V6有较大的提升。     

1982~2010年洞庭湖流域植被指数的变化及其与气候因子的相关分析

基于GIMMS 3 g、PAL、LTDR V3、FASIR及MODIS 5种不同的遥感影像数据,及洞庭湖流域30个气象站点的气温、降水和日照时数月值数据,采用逐像元一元线性回归模型,对比分析了在不同数据集背景下的植被变化趋势,并基于时间序列长度以及数据精度的考虑,选择GIMMS 3 g作为研究洞庭湖流域植被覆盖变化的基础数据集,进而利用相关系数和多元线性回归分析模型探讨流域植被覆盖变化与降水、气温、日照时数的关系。结果表明:(1)过去29 a间,流域GIMMS 3 g NDVI在时空尺度上均以增加趋势为主,1998~2000年出现最大的降低,以植被覆盖较好的山区减少最快;(2)去除年际变化趋势和季节性影响的NDVI与同期降水量距平、累积3个月气温距平值及同期日照时数距平值相关性程度最高;(3)统计意义上,降水量、气温和日照时数解释洞庭湖流域植被月NDVI变化的37%,日照时数对该流域NDVI变化的影响最大,其次为降水和气温;(4)在时间和空间范畴,生长季NDVI可以作为反映洞庭湖流域森林覆盖率变化的指标。     

遥感降水产品在澜沧江流域径流模拟中的适用性研究

以澜沧江流域为研究区域，基于实测降水数据，从日尺度、月尺度到年尺度分别评价了TRMM 3B42 V7、CMORPH CRT、TRMM 3B42 RT、PERSIANN 4种遥感降水产品在格网尺度上的精度，并用实测降水数据和筛选出的精度较高的遥感降水产品驱动SWAT模型进行了径流模拟，以进一步探究遥感降水产品在澜沧江流域的适用性。结果表明：4种遥感降水产品在日尺度上精度都不高，与实测降水的相关系数都低于0.5。从整体看，TRMM 3B42 V7精度最高，月、年尺度下与实测降水的相关系数依次为0.95、0.90，CMORPH CRT精度稍低于TRMM 3B42 V7，其在月、年尺度下与实测降水的相关系数依次为0.89、0.77，TRMM 3B42 RT和PERSIANN精度较差，两者在不同时间尺度下与实测降水的相关系数都较低，基本都维持在0.5以下；径流模拟结果发现TRMM 3B42 V7和CMORPH CRT两种遥感降水产品对流域出口断面日、月径流模拟的能力均不如实测降水，但整体上三者都能够较好地反映出实测径流变化的趋势，三者径流模拟对应的纳西效率系数NS在0.65~0.94范围内；从纳西效率系数NS看，三者对应的数值相差幅度极小，从多年平均径流RE看，三者都表现出低估的情形，但与前两者（低估值在 -4%~-10% 范围内）相比，CMORPH CRT（低估值在 -10%~-20% 范围内）低估的幅度较大；TRMM 3B42 V7在整体上的径流模拟效果优于CMORPH CRT，在澜沧江流域具有更好的径流模拟适用性。     

经验正交函数方法和TRMM数据对长江流域降水模式与极端水文过程的研究

气候变化加剧了极端天气和水文事件的发生，降水是区域干旱与洪水事件最直接驱动因素。以TRMM/PR月累积降水反演遥感数据为基础，利用经验正交函数EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）方法对长江流域降水时空变化模式进行提取，并对比分析了主要模式振幅强弱与极端水文事件的对应关系。结果表明在流域尺度上EOF方法及TRMM/PR数据可以较好地识别降水主要模式，通过时空尺度变换成功揭示主要降水模式强弱与流域极端水文事件的对应关系。鉴于日益丰富的巨量水文气象时空数据，EOF方法在模式提取、水文模拟、极端事件预估及灾害适应性研究等方面具有应用潜力     

基于卫星降水的鄱阳湖流域旱涝分析及其可靠性检验

基于热带测雨卫星(TRMM)３B４２降水数据,通过Z 指数方法对鄱阳湖流域１９９８年１月~２０１０年１２月
旱涝的时空分布进行分析,并利用流域内１５个雨量站观测降雨数据同样采用Z 指数方法分析流域旱涝变化,与
TRMM 结果进行对比,检验其精度和可靠性.结果显示:TRMM 降水与地面雨量站观测降雨具有较高的一致性,
能正确反映流域的降水情况;其计算的Z指数在１９９８~２０１０年以０为中心呈锯齿状增大减小交替变化,所反映的
洪涝事件主要发生在４~６月,占全年的６０％左右,而干旱主要发生在９月~翌年１月份,其与鄱阳湖流域降水的
年内分布特征是一致的;同时,基于TRMM 降水反映的流域旱涝等级与降雨量的空间分布基本一致,TRMM 降水
能够用于流域旱涝的空间分布监测.     

CMIP6全球气候模式对长江流域气候变化的模拟评估与未来预估

以全球变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对自然环境和社会经济发展产生了巨大影响。长江流域作为中国最大的流域，对气候变化的影响非常敏感，对未来气候变化的预测可以为应对未来的不确定性提供重要的科学依据。为了更准确地预测长江流域未来的温度和降水，针对第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)对长江流域26个气候模式进行评估，选择并校正性能更好的模式，讨论了长江流域未来的气温和降水。主要结论如下：(1)气候模式在温度上的模拟效果优于降水，在时间尺度上表现为月尺度>日尺度>年尺度。温度模拟存在一定程度的低估，降水模拟存在一定程度的高估。(2)区域尺度利用气候模式进行研究工作前的评估和校正是必要的，经过评估优化和季节校正后，数据的精度得到了显著提高，分位数映射法可以应用于气候模型数据的校正，但对于极端降水和温度的校正仍存在一些不足。(3)在SSP1-2.6情景中，未来温度和降水变化将在一段时间内持续不稳定增加，然后随着时间趋于稳定。在其他3种情景下，变化的速度随着时间的推移而加快。未来长江流域的降水和气温在所有情景下都将高于历史时期，表现为SSP5-8.5>SSP3-7.0>SSP...     

长江流域月降水的多尺度随机特征及其分区

提出了一种基于集合经验模态分解的多尺度信息熵方法来分析长江流域138个气象站1961～2016年的月降水在不同时间尺度下的随机性,然后,采用模糊C均值聚类(FCM)算法对流域月降水进行空间区划,最后,探讨各区平均月降水序列与厄尔尼诺1+2区的平均海表温度(NINO1+2)之间的时滞相关性.结果表明:(1)长江流域月降水存在明显的季节、年际和年代际变化特征;(2)流域月降水在不同时间尺度下的随机性均呈现出东部高-西部低的空间分布模式,并且流域月降水的IMF分量的随机性随时间尺度的增大而降低,且不同地区间其随机性的差异越来越大;(3)流域月降水在各IMF分量上的随机性沿纬向自西向东逐渐增大,而沿经向呈现出拟均匀性;(4)流域月降水在空间上可划分为6个一致性子区域:西部高原区、西南部横断山区、北部低山盆地区、南部低山丘陵区、东南部鄱阳湖平原区和东部长江三角洲区;(5)流域各区平均月降水对NINO1+2的最佳响应时滞自东南沿海向内陆地区依次由2个月延长至4个月.     

气候变暖背景下安徽省月NDVI动态变化研究

地表植被覆盖时空动态变化能很好地反映气候变化.基于2000～2016年MODIS NDVI逐月数据及同期内格点降水和气温数据,探讨了安徽省NDVI时空变化及其与气象因子的关系,结果表明:(1)安徽省NDVI呈显著增加的趋势,全省平均增速为5.7～ 11.3×10-3/a,其中,旱地增长较快,阔叶林和灌丛增长较缓.时间上,除水田外,10月至翌年3月具有显著增加趋势,6～9月增加趋势不明显.空间上,皖南山区、江淮之间大别山区和淮北平原增长较快;(2)各种植被类型月均NDVI与气温或降水具有相关性.且NDVI均为与前一个月的气温或降水相关性最高的时滞特点;(3)像元尺度NDVI与气温的偏相关系数较大,其中正相关达到0.01显著性水平的面积占92.2％.而与降水的偏相关性较小,其中正相关达到0.01显著性水平的面积仅占8.2％.月尺度NDVI的驱动类型分析结果表明,气温驱动型占75.0％,降水气温共同驱动型占15.3％.研究结果可为全球变暖背景下区域生态系统管理和保护提供理论参考.     

Formaldehyde in conventional homes in Taiwan

A survey was conducted in the humid environment of Taipei City during April and May of 1991, to investigate the indoor formaldehyde exposure and its health effects on 117 conventional households. The levels of formaldehyde were measured by the pararosaniline method. The details regarding construction, ventilation, combustion of fuel, burning of Chinese incense, and the complaints concerning the respiratory system were obtained by a questionnaire. The results show that the age of the pressed wood used in furniture and indoor decoration, the ventilation rate, the combustion of fuel, and the burning of Chinese incense significantly affect the levels of formaldehyde. The respiratory complaints found in this study were concluded here to be only partially accounted for by exposure to formaldehyde.     

Natural radionuclides in bottled water in Austria

Concentration levels of 226Ra, 222Rn and 210Pb were analyzed in domestic bottled waters commercially available in Austria. Concentrations up to 0.23 Bq/l, with a geometric mean of 0.041 Bq/l were found for 226Ra. Concentrations for 222Rn ranged from <0.12-18 Bq/l, the geometric mean being 0.54 Bq/l. Lead-210 was analyzed in selected samples, the concentrations ranging from <2 to 34 mBq/l, with a geometric mean of 4.7 mBq/l. Ingestion doses resulting from consumption of these waters were calculated for the geometric mean and the maximum concentrations of the three radionuclides. The effective dose equivalents for different age groups of the population due to the intake of 226Ra range from 0.001 to 0.22 mSv/y and of 210Pb from 0.0003 to 0.05 mSv/y. Ingestion doses from 222Rn are low compared to those from 226Ra and 210Pb, ranging from 0.0001 to 0.011 mSv/y for adults and children, respectively. The doses are compared to the total ingestion dose from dietary intake of natural radionuclides on an annual basis.     

Precipitation-driven decrease in wildfires in British Columbia

Trends of summer precipitation and summer temperature and their influence on trends in summer drought and area burned in British Columbia (BC) were investigated for the period 1920–2000. The complexity imposed by topography was taken into account by incorporating high spatial resolution climate and fire data. Considerable regional variation in trends and in climate–fire relationships was observed. A weak but significant increase in summer temperature was detected in northeastern and coastal BC, whereas summer precipitation increased significantly in all regions—by up to 45.9 %. A significant decrease in province-wide area burned and at the level of sub-units was strongly related to increasing precipitation, more so than to changing temperature or drought severity. A stronger dependence of area burned on precipitation, a variable difficult to predict, implies that projected changes in future area burned in this region may yield higher uncertainties than in regions where temperature is predominantly the limiting factor for fire activity. We argue that analyses of fire–climate relationships must be undertaken at a sufficiently high resolution such that spatial variability in limiting factors on area burned like precipitation, temperature, and drought is captured within units.     

Radon concentrations in a spa in Serbia

The paper presents the results of indoor radon concentration survey in 201 homes and offices in Niska Banja (the Spa of Nis), a well-known health resort and a spa in the South-East of Serbia. Radon indoor concentrations were determined by active charcoal method, according to standard EPA procedure. The indoor radon concentrations were in the range of up to 200 Bq/m(3) (47%), from 200-600 Bq/m(3) (26%) and over 600 Bq/m(3) (27%). Three areas of extremely high average radon concentrations were found (1,340-4,340 Bq/m(3)), with a maximum above 13,000 Bq/m(3). The content of natural radionuclides ((226)Ra, (214)Pb, (214)Bi, (235)U, (228)Ac, (212)Pb, (212)Bi, (208)Tl, (40)K) and (137)Cs, as well as the content of total uranium, thorium and potassium in mud used in peloidotherapy in the Health Institute "Niska Banja" was determined, too. The activities of the radionuclides were determined on an HPGe detector, by standard gamma spectroscopy. The results indicated considerably high amounts of total uranium and thorium (0.021 g/kg mud and 0.003 g/kg mud, respectively), due to the karsts origin of the soil.     

Trends in lung cancer in London in relation to exposure to diesel fumes

Mortality from lung cancer among males in England and Wales is now beginning to decline, and the urban excess that has persisted for many years is also becoming smaller. There is nothing in these national trends to suggest that pollution from diesel vehicles, which has been increasing in recent decades, would be involved. Some preliminary results are presented from a long-term study of the incidence of lung cancer among London Transport staff, including men who work in bus garages where there are high concentrations of smoke from diesel buses. Over the 25 year period from 1950–1974 the numbers of cases reported in each of the several job categories have been below those expected on the basis of Greater London rates. The absence of data on smoking habits makes it difficult to determine whether the small differences in rates between job categories are of any importance, but the standardised mortality ratios are all well within the range of those found in national studies of lung cancer mortality and smoking in relation to occupation.     

Seasonal changes in radon concentrations in buildings in the region of northeastern Poland

In this study, seasonal observations of radon concentration changes inside buildings carried out in the northeastern region of Poland is presented. One-year measurements of radon concentrations were performed in chosen buildings. The integral method of Cr-39 trace detectors in diffusive chambers was used. Mean values of radon concentrations were determined in monthly, 2-, 3-, 6-month, and annual observations. The fraction of a mean annual concentration of the value obtained in a shorter observation was calculated. Monthly concentration values were from about 0.2 to 14.9 of the annual mean. All buildings revealed seasonal fluctuation of radon concentration. Negative correlation of indoor radon concentration in the buildings and the mean temperature outside was observed in most examined buildings. The lowest coefficient range, determining which part of the annual mean value would be obtained in the 6-month observation, was gained for exposure begun in April or October.     

Participatory approach in vision setting: emerging initiatives in local municipalities in Japan

In this paper, we present the emerging practices in Japanese local municipalities, in which participatory methods are applied to envision sustainable future and relevant target settings. We selected three local cases: Higashiomi city, Kizugawa city and Nagakute city as emerging initiatives. A comparative analysis was carried out to identify commonalities and differences, and to derive lessons for appropriate governance and systems for participatory deliberation in future visioning. We argue that the deliberation processes served as a platform for effective communication, and that installing a mechanism that allows reflexive deliberation processes is the key to make participatory methods fully functional.     

Radionuclides in hot mineral spring waters in Jordan

Hot mineral springs in Jordan are very attractive to people who seek physical healing but they are unaware of natural radioactive elements that may be contained in the hot mineral water. The activities of the natural radioactive isotopes were measured and the concentrations of the parents of their natural radioactive series were calculated. The measured radionuclides were 234Th, 226Ra, 214Pb, 214Bi, 228Ac, 228Th, 212Pb, 212Bi and 208Tl. In addition the activities of 235U and 40K were measured. The activities ranged from 0.14 to 34.8 Bq/l, while the concentrations of parent uranium and thorium isotopes ranged from 3.0 x 10(-3) to 0.59 mg/l. The results were compared with those for drinking water.     

Lead content in new decorative paints in India

The paint industry in India is broadly classified into two categories: organized sector and unorganized sector. Multinational and big Indian companies form the organized sector, whereas the small- and medium-scale industries which produce paints for the local market form the unorganized sector. The present study was undertaken to determine the level of lead in decorative paints in India. A total of 148 paint samples sourced from four organized sector companies and six unorganized sector companies were analyzed for the total lead content. Results of this study reveal that 39 % of the total paints tested (n = 148) contain lead more than 300 ppm, the voluntary limit prescribed by Bureau of Indian Standards, BIS (IS 15489:2011), and 45 % of the tested paints contain lead more than 90 ppm, the US limit. Further analysis of the data indicates that only 5 % of the tested paints manufactured by organized sector companies contain lead more than 300 ppm (n = 91), whereas 93 % of the tested paints manufactured by unorganized sector companies contain lead more than 300 ppm (n = 57). Comparison with earlier reported data suggests that while organized sector companies are gradually abandoning the use of lead-based compounds in their paints, the unorganized sector companies are still adding lead-based compounds intentionally in their paints despite the potential health hazards associated with it. The maximum concentration of lead obtained was 80,350 ppm in one of the paints manufactured by an unorganized sector company. The presence of high concentration of lead in yellow and green color paints indicates that color can be a predictor of lead content in decorative paints.