Improving cross-sectoral climate change adaptation for coastal settlements: insights from South East Queensland,Australia

Climate change impacts affecting coastal areas, such as sea-level rise and storm surge events, are expected to have significant social, economic and environmental consequences worldwide. Ongoing population growth and development in highly urbanised coastal areas will exacerbate the predicted impacts on coastal settlements. Improving the adaptation potential of highly vulnerable coastal communities will require greater levels of planning and policy integration across sectors and scales. However, to date, there is little evidence in the literature which demonstrates how climate policy integration is being achieved. This paper contributes to this gap in knowledge by drawing on the example provided by the process of developing cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes generated for three coastal settlement types as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), a 3-year multi-sectoral study of climate change adaptation options for human settlements in South East Queensland, Australia. In doing so, we first investigate the benefits and challenges to cross-sectoral adaptation to address climate change broadly and in coastal areas. We then describe how cross-sectoral adaptation policies and programmes were generated and appraised involving the sectors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure as part of SEQCARI. The paper concludes by discussing key considerations that can inform the development and assessment of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes in highly urbanised coastal areas.     

Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.     

Heading for the hills: climate-driven community relocations in the Solomon Islands and Alaska provide insight for a 1.5 °C future

Whilst future air temperature thresholds have become the centrepiece of international climate negotiations, even the most ambitious target of 1.5 °C will result in significant sea-level rise and associated impacts on human populations globally. Of additional concern in Arctic regions is declining sea ice and warming permafrost which can increasingly expose coastal areas to erosion particularly through exposure to wave action due to storm activity. Regional variability over the past two decades provides insight into the coastal and human responses to anticipated future rates of sea-level rise under 1.5 °C scenarios. Exceeding 1.5 °C will generate sea-level rise scenarios beyond that currently experienced and substantially increase the proportion of the global population impacted. Despite these dire challenges, there has been limited analysis of how, where and why communities will relocate inland in response. Here, we present case studies of local responses to coastal erosion driven by sea-level rise and warming in remote indigenous communities of the Solomon Islands and Alaska, USA, respectively. In both the Solomon Islands and the USA, there is no national government agency that has the organisational and technical capacity and resources to facilitate a community-wide relocation. In the Solomon Islands, communities have been able to draw on flexible land tenure regimes to rapidly adapt to coastal erosion through relocations. These relocations have led to ad hoc fragmentation of communities into smaller hamlets. Government-supported relocation initiatives in both countries have been less successful in the short term due to limitations of land tenure, lacking relocation governance framework, financial support and complex planning processes. These experiences from the Solomon Islands and USA demonstrate the urgent need to create a relocation governance framework that protects people’s human rights.     

The Gathering Storm: managing adaptation to environmental change in coastal communities and small islands

Small island communities are inherently coastal communities, sharing many of the attributes and challenges faced by cities, towns and villages situated on the shores of larger islands and continents. In the context of rapidly changing climates, all coastal communities are challenged by their exposure to changing sea levels, to increasingly frequent and severe storms, and to the cumulative effects of higher storm surges. Across the globe, small island developing states, and small islands in larger states, are part of a distinctive set of stakeholders threatened, not only by climate change but also by shifting social, economic, and cultural conditions. C-Change is a collaborative International Community–University Research Alliance (ICURA) project whose goal is to assist participating coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean region to share experiences and tools that aid adaptation to changes in their physical environment, including sea-level rise and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change. C-Change researchers have been working with eight partner communities to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks, to improve understanding of the ramifications of climate change to local conditions and local assets, and to increase capacity for planning for adaptation to their changing world. This paper reports on the knowledge gained and shared and the challenges to date in this ongoing collaboration between science and society.     

Evaluation of the Design Features of Interactive Sea-Level Rise Viewers for Risk Communication

Interactive sea-level rise viewers (ISLRVs) are digital tools used to communicate about impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and support decision-making. This study characterizes how ISLRVs communicate about SLR-related risks and provide decision-making support. It identifies key themes about fostering accurate mental models of SLR processes, informing about inundation likelihood, communicating about related social and ecological risks, and providing features users can apply to specific tasks. We present a framework for understanding this type of communication tool that designers can use to develop robust ISLRVs that can support audiences’ understanding and decision-making needs, and contribute to enhancement of coastal resiliency.     

海岸带土地开发利用及生态环境效应研究简述

海岸带土地利用变化是影响海岸带生态环境的一个重要方面，也是目前国内外学术界广为关注和研究的热点问题，研究海岸带土地利用变化及其对生态环境的影响对于了解区域的生态环境演变乃至全球变化具有重要意义。分析海岸带土地利用变化研究在全球变化研究中的地位，阐述海岸带地区土地利用变化及生态环境效应研究，对研究全球气候变化、海平面上升、陆地与海洋交互作用及由此引起的岸线变迁、入海营养盐和悬浮物及沉积物等物质通量变化、海岸带生物多样性、海岸带区域乃至整个全球C、N等物质总循环等都具有重要意义。基于以上研究，简述海岸带土地利用变化及其对生态环境影响研究进展，总结分析海岸带土地利用变化及环境效应影响研究目标和重点研究内容     

Regional Risk Assessment addressing the impacts of climate change in the coastal area of the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia)

Sound, cost efficient management strategies in developed coastal zones can be reinforced by a thorough understanding of risks associated with the combination of anthropogenic and natural drivers of change. A Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in the Tunisian coastal zone of the Gulf of Gabes. It is based on the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques and Geographic Information Systems and is designed to support the development and prioritization of adaptation strategies. The RRA focuses on sea-level rise and storm surge flooding impacts for human and natural systems, i.e., beaches, wetlands, urban areas, agricultural areas, and terrestrial ecosystems. Results suggest that for both of the studied climate change impacts, i.e., sea-level rise and storm surge flooding, the area potentially exposed is limited to a narrow, low elevation region adjacent to the shoreline. However, the exposed areas showed a high relative risk score, obtained by the integration of exposure and susceptibility factors. Beaches have the lowest relative risk scores, while wetlands and terrestrial ecosystems have the higher relative risk scores. The final outputs of the analysis (i.e., exposure, susceptibility, and risk maps) can support end-users in the establishment of relative priorities for intervention and in the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities, thus providing a basis for coastal zoning and land-use planning.     

Community participation in cultural heritage and environmental policy formulation in Botswana

Cultural heritage does not have direct economic benefits. However, if properly managed it can stimulate social cohesions, improving the environment and have beneficial economic spin offs for the local communities. This paper discusses the role of communities in the formulation of the policies concerning their local environment. It argues that community engagement by policy makers is important in giving legitimacy and ownership of the policies. Furthermore, this paper discusses the potential of cultural heritage in diversifying the economy in Botswana. This paper recommends for the re-assessment of the relationship between the state and local communities which is critical in resuscitating the seemingly ailing community business organizations. In conclusion, it argues for the sustainable management of cultural heritage as a social and economic resource in the next 50 years of Botswana’s independence.     

资本禀赋对生态保护红线区农户人为活动限制受偿意愿的影响

生态补偿是激励生态保护红线区农户主动参与人为活动限制政策,实现生态保护红线区人与自然和谐共生的有效政策工具。为深入了解生态保护红线区农户人为活动限制的受偿意愿,将其决策过程分解成补偿参与意愿和受偿额度两个阶段,基于布迪厄的社会实践理论,构建资本禀赋与受偿意愿的理论分析框架,利用江西省和湖北省4个县(区)生态保护红线区微观调查数据,运用双栏模型实证分析资本禀赋对生态保护红线区农户人为活动限制受偿意愿的影响。研究结果表明:(1)有效的人为活动限制补偿激励应不低于农户的平均受偿意愿,对应调查区域的补偿标准应不低于0.23万元/(户·a);(2)经济资本对人为活动限制补偿参与意愿和受偿额度均有显著的正向影响,其中农业收入比重、人口负担比和住房结构对补偿参与意愿具有正向影响,劳动力数量和人均耕地面积对受偿额度具有正向影响;(3)文化资本对人为活动限制补偿参与意愿的影响不确定,但对受偿额度有显著的负向影响,其中村集体活动参与对补偿参与意愿具有正向影响,外出打工经历对补偿参与意愿和受偿额度均有负向影响;(4)社会资本对人为活动限制补偿参与意愿有显著的正向影响,但对受偿额度的影响不确定,其中村干部信任程度和陌生人信任程度对补偿参与意愿具有正向影响,邻居信任程度和贷款难易程度对受偿额度具有负向影响,手机联系人数和社会声望对受偿额度具有正向影响。因此,在未来的生态保护红线区生态补偿机制设计中,要分层分阶段推进人为活动限制补偿政策,充分重视农户的经济资本、文化资本和社会资本对其人为活动限制受偿意愿的影响。     

Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US35 million (2005) to US35 million (2005) to US10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses.     

Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future

The coastal zone has changed profoundly during the 20th century and, as a result, society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise and variability. This demands improved understanding to facilitate appropriate planning to minimise potential losses. With this in mind, the World Climate Research Programme organised a workshop (held in June 2006) to document current understanding and to identify research and observations required to reduce current uncertainties associated with sea-level rise and variability. While sea levels have varied by over 120 m during glacial/interglacial cycles, there has been little net rise over the past several millennia until the 19th century and early 20th century, when geological and tide-gauge data indicate an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. Recent satellite-altimeter data and tide-gauge data have indicated that sea levels are now rising at over 3 mm year⁻¹. The major contributions to 20th and 21st century sea-level rise are thought to be a result of ocean thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Ice sheets are thought to have been a minor contributor to 20th century sea-level rise, but are potentially the largest contributor in the longer term. Sea levels are currently rising at the upper limit of the projections of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (TAR IPCC), and there is increasing concern of potentially large ice-sheet contributions during the 21st century and beyond, particularly if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. A suite of ongoing satellite and in situ observational activities need to be sustained and new activities supported. To the extent that we are able to sustain these observations, research programmes utilising the resulting data should be able to significantly improve our understanding and narrow projections of future sea-level rise and variability.     

Learning and local government in coastal South Australia: towards a community of practice framework for adapting to global change

Social learning can be a vital tool in assisting communities to adapt to change. Local governments can be a conduit between the communities they serve and the policy that they are trying to implement. Social learning in this context can be an iterative, often organic process. Based on a case study of coastal planning in South Australia, Australia, this paper presents the results of a qualitative mixed-method approach that documents the aspects of social learning within coastal management and evaluates the various lessons learned by local governments in South Australia. The role of social learning and adaptive governance is discussed. The paper concludes that by deliberatively incorporating the notion of communities of practice into learning frameworks, local governments can more effectively manage their coastal zones in response to global change.     

Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA

This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995–2100. We find that in 2100, 16–27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US5 and US 5 and US 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11–36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa’s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US2 and US 2 and US 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies.     

Physical basis of coastal adaptation on tropical small islands

Small tropical islands are widely recognized as having high exposure and vulnerability to climate change and other natural hazards. Ocean warming and acidification, changing storm patterns and intensity, and accelerated sea-level rise pose challenges that compound the intrinsic vulnerability of small, remote, island communities. Sustainable development requires robust guidance on the risks associated with natural hazards and climate change, including the potential for island coasts and reefs to keep pace with rising sea levels. Here we review these issues with special attention to their implications for climate-change vulnerability, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction in various island settings. We present new projections for 2010–2100 local sea-level rise (SLR) at 18 island sites, incorporating crustal motion and gravitational fingerprinting, for a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global projections and a semi-empirical model. Projected 90-year SLR for the upper limit A1FI scenario with enhanced glacier drawdown ranges from 0.56 to 1.01 m for islands with a measured range of vertical motion from ?0.29 to +0.10 m. We classify tropical small islands into four broad groups comprising continental fragments, volcanic islands, near-atolls and atolls, and high carbonate islands including raised atolls. Because exposure to coastal forcing and hazards varies with island form, this provides a framework for consideration of vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Nevertheless, appropriate measures to adjust for climate change and to mitigate disaster risk depend on a place-based understanding of island landscapes and of processes operating in the coastal biophysical system of individual islands.     

Sea-Level Rise in Public Science Writing: History,Science and Reductionism

Sea-level rise is a dramatic effect of climate change, with profound implications for societies around the world. In the past few years, a rush of literary non-fiction books have appeared that aim to explain the threat of rising seas to the public. This paper critiques how sea-level rise is framed in many of those books, on two accounts. First, anthropogenic sea-level change is frequently framed by accounts of natural variations of sea level in earth history, focusing on geological rather than societal processes. Second, single and sudden floods are often used to exemplify sea-level rise in ways that draw attention away from incremental environmental change in favour of fast-paced but de-contextualized events. The paper argues that both these frames de-politicize sea-level rise and may steer public understanding and discussion away from relevant social, cultural, and ethical considerations. As examples of climate reductionism, these depictions may obstruct rather than facilitate appropriate negotiations in response to predicted sea-level rise.     

The poverty of forestry policy: double standards on an uneven playing field

Can policies designed to maximize exploitation by elites benefit the people who live in forests? Forestry policy throughout the developing world originates from European “scientific” forestry traditions exported during the colonial period. These policies were implemented by foreign and local elite whose interest was to maximize and extract profit. In spite of reforms since the end of the colonial period, policies on the environment usually remain biased against rural communities. Even when more recent policies are fair, the rural poor face severe biases in implementation. In addition, they must compete on an uneven playing field of ethnic and other social inequities and economic hurdles. This article examines how forestry policy and implementation maintain double standards on this uneven playing field in a manner that permanently excludes the rural poor from the natural wealth around them—producing poverty in the process. Change that would support poverty alleviation for forest-based communities requires a radical rethinking of forest policy so as to counterbalance widespread regressive policies and structural asymmetries.     

Contemporary migration intentions in the Maldives: the role of environmental and other factors

Migration is often mentioned as a major potential impact of climate change for small island states, especially low-lying atolls. Understanding future migration flows, including the potential role of environmental change, requires an interdisciplinary approach, focusing both on environmental and socio-economic factors. This paper presents a detailed analysis of contemporary migration decision-making processes in a small island nation—the Maldives—based on a survey conducted in 2015. The results challenge the view that climate change is influencing contemporary migration behaviour in the Maldives. The survey shows how attitudes influence intention to migrate both internally and internationally. Existing analysis of the national census shows a strong urbanisation trend, with significant net migration to the capital island Malé and its environs, dominating national migration flows. People consider perceived employment and educational opportunities, quality of health services, and expectations about general quality of life, happiness, and social environment. In addition, many Maldivians have a high intention to migrate internationally. Hence, the reduction of barriers to international migration by, for example, establishment of international migrant networks, or policies enabling migration from the Maldives, is likely to increase international migration. Maldivians widely express knowledge and concern about climate change and sea-level rise, recognising the high vulnerability of the island nation. However, such considerations are not presently important in their decisions about migration.     

Historical area and shoreline change of reef islands around Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati

Low-lying reef islands on atolls appear to be threatened by impacts of observed and anticipated sea-level rise. This study examines changes in shoreline position on the majority of reef islands on Tarawa Atoll, the capital of Kiribati. It investigates short-term reef-island area and shoreline change over 30 years determined by comparing 1968 and 1998 aerial photography using geographical information systems. Reef islands have substantially increased in size, gaining about 450 ha, driven largely by reclamations on urban South Tarawa, accounting for 360 ha (~80 % of the net change). Widespread erosion and high average accretion rates appear to be related to disjointed reclamations. In rural North Tarawa, most reef islands show stability, with localised changes in areas such as embayments, sand spits and beaches adjacent to, or facing, inter-island channels. Shoreline changes in North Tarawa are largely influenced by natural factors, whereas those in South Tarawa are predominantly affected by human factors and seasonal variability associated with El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, serious concerns are raised for the future of South Tarawa reef islands, as evidence shows that widespread erosion along the ocean and lagoon shorelines is primarily due to human activities and further encroachment onto the active beach will disrupt longshore sediment transport, increasing erosion and susceptibility of the reef islands to anticipated sea-level rise. Appropriate adaptation measures, such as incorporating coastal processes and seasonal variability associated with ENSO when designing coastal structures and developing appropriate management plans, are required, including prohibiting beach mining practices near settlements.     

Human ecological effects of tropical storms in the coastal area of Ky Anh (Ha Tinh,Vietnam)

Vietnam is prone to tropical storms. Climate change effects contribute to sea level rise, floods, progression of the low water line and coastal erosion. This paper inventories the perception of local people, assesses and values main aspects of the livelihood damage caused by the tropical storms of the period 2008–2013 in three coastal communes of the Ky Anh District of the Ha Tinh Province in Central Vietnam. The communes were selected because the location of their coastal line is perpendicular to the storm itself, which made them prone to damage. The effects of increasingly extreme weather conditions on three communities in an area most affected by storms and floods on the local residents and their responses to these changing environmental conditions are analyzed and assessed. The results of questionnaires completed by randomly selected local inhabitants of these communes show that storms and related hazards such as flood, sea level rise and heavy rain are perceived as the most impacting climate change intensified phenomena on agriculture and aquaculture, livestock, household property and income. Opinions and measured data provided by the commune and district authorities allow estimating the total direct cost of the tropical storm at 1.56 million $US (The used conversion rate VND/$US is 21,730 when the research was conducted in 2014) during the period 2008–2013. The long-term costs of adaptation and social impact measures will be significantly higher. Details of the monetary figures allow identifying the physical and natural capital of the area as being most affected by the storm. Trend and cost analysis show that the total financial support for hazard prevention and management during 2014–2019 is estimated at 1.19 up to 1.32 million $US. Local stakeholders indicate that climate change adaptation should not be limited to technical measures such as strengthening dikes, but also should target planting protection forests and mangroves and land use planning. Financial support for the relocation policy, stakeholder involvement and integrating climate change adaptation in both the socioeconomic development master plan and local land use planning are also of importance.     

Community-based scenario planning: a process for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning to social–ecological change in coastal communities

The current and projected impacts of climate change make understanding the environmental and social vulnerability of coastal communities and the planning of adaptations important international goals and national policy initiatives. Yet, coastal communities are concurrently experiencing numerous other social, political, economic, demographic and environmental changes or stressors that also need to be considered and planned for simultaneously to maintain social and environmental sustainability. There are a number of methods and processes that have been used to study vulnerability and identify adaptive response strategies. This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process that was used for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included: (1) identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning; (2) exploring the system and types of change; (3) generating possible future scenarios; and (4) proposing and prioritizing adaptations. Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.