Sustainable Development of Export： Theoretical Meaning, Evaluation Model, and Empirical Research

With the effect of the human trade doctrine in the international trade field, almost all the countries have paid more attention to the sustainable development of international trade. This article chose the export sustainable development as the research object. On the basis of the analysis of the theoretical connotation of the export sustainable development, this article tried to establish an evaluation indices system and set up an evaluation model of the export sustainable development level, and finally made some empirical research on China. The result indicates that the comprehensive level of the export sustainable development in China showed a tendency to rise from 1985 to 2003 and the export sustainable development level of China in these years can be divided into four grades： excellent, good, moderate and poor. In most years, the social economic benefits of export was obtained at the cost of the deterioration of environment and the depletion of resources, and the economic profit of export did not increase with the enlargement of the export scale because of the deterioration of the terms of trade. Therefore, China should be careful about the problem of poverty accompanied by the increase of export.     

Share-Shift Analysis of Geo-Economic Pattern on Global Cereal Crops in Recent 50 Years

In recent 50 years, with the rapid development of international food trade, the geoeconomic pattern of cereal crops has changed tremendously which produced a significant impact on global food security. This paper attempted to analysis the production pattern and trade pattern of global cereals, especially three main crops of wheat, maize and rice by using the method of share-shift. Given the fact of almost every economic phenomenon is driven by their economic return behind them, this paper attempted to a further step into their economic pattern by examining their net trade flow. The results showed that from the view of production and trade, the geographic pattern of global cereals has changed greatly which can be described as developing countries has replaced developed countries and become the world’s biggest cereals production and trading area. But when moving to the net trade flow, it turns out to be another story that can depicted as the regional fixation features of economic returns which can be convinced from the labor division of global cereals trade, among which developed countries acts as net trade profit area while developing countries as net trade output area, and their gap between net export and net import has been widening from the view of evolution trend. So what we learn from the evolution of geoeconomic pattern on this topic is that our place in global cereals trade system, and therefore alert us to concern not only on the pattern transition but also the economic meaning behind it, only by doing so can we learn to plan our food future more wisely and effectively.     

CO_2 Emissions Embodied in China-U.S.Trade

After the Kyoto Protocol was implemented, carbon leakage exerts great influences on international trade and economy. Trade creates a mechanism for consumers to shift environmental pollution associated with their consumption to other countries. China has overtaken the U.S. as the world＇s biggest CO2 emitter since 2006. As China＇s second largest trade partner, the U.S. has the biggest trade deficit with China which has aroused a lot of disputes between the two parties. But so far the assessments of the trade imbalance of China-U.S. have paid little attention to environmental impacts associated with the trade imbalance. Applied an input-output approach, the article estimates the amount of CO2 embodied in China-U.S. trade during 1997-2007. It was found that through trade with China, the U.S. reduced its CO2 emissions compared with a non-trade scenario. Due to the greater carbon-intensity and relatively less efficient production processes of Chinese industry, China-U.S. trade resulted in more CO2 emissions in China and the world. In the end, the article gives some suggestions： it is equal and sustainable that the international accounting methodologies should be improved, for CO2 emissions responsibility must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of international trade.     

China’s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up,China’s export trade has maintained a rapid growth;meanwhile,China’s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. "High export and high energy consumption" has become the feature of China’s trade and economic development.In this paper,based on the input-output analysis approach,the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors.The results show that,China is a big net exporter of embodied energy.Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%,the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years,and based on the input-output data of 2005,by 2030 China’s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production,which is obviously infeasible.As a country of very low per capita energy,China must change its export pattern,encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity,and promote structural change of energy-efficient exported products,so as to achieve the sustainable development.Accordingly,the authors put forward some suggestions.     

International trade,carbon leakage,and CO2 emissions of manufacturing industry

Foreign trade drives China’s growth,but as the trade scale continues to expand,the carbon emissions also increase quickly.Based on the industry panel data from 1996 to 2010,this paper calculates carbon emissions of 27manufacturing industries.According to the intensity of carbon emissions,this paper divides the manufacturing sectors into low carbon and high carbon manufacturing industry and then analyzes the carbon emission trends.Next,the paper uses the feasible generalized least square regression to verify the existence of environmental Kuznets curve（EKC）of the manufacturing industry’s carbon.In order to investigate the carbon leakage problem,the regression also includes the interaction term between trade and industrial value added.Our findings are as follows:the carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry accord with the EKC curve,but have a linear relationship with the high carbon manufacturing industry;trade reduces the carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry,but it increases those of the high carbon manufacturing industry;for the whole manufacturing industry and low carbon manufacturing industry,there is no carbon leakage,but it exists in the high carbon manufacturing industry.On the whole,pollution haven hypothesis does not hold up in China,and China does not need to limit industry foreign trade to reduce the emission of CO₂.But the manufacturing industry will still be the main engine of the economic growth,and therefore our country should make an effective low-carbon policy,introduce advanced technology,increase R&D investment into lowcarbon technologies,and upgrade and transform the original equipment to change the backward mode of production.     

Absorptive Capacities for Sustainability Technologies： Perspectives from the BRICS and China

For the development process in the rapidly growing economies, knowledge transfer and technology cooperation are becoming important issues. Research and technological competences are key indicators for the absorptive capacity of sustainability technologies and for the ability to export them. These issues are analyzed empirically for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa （BRICS）. Sustainability related research in BRICS is mostly carried out within broader, more sector oriented programmes. Specialization patterns of international patents and in foreign trade indicate various strengths and weaknesses of the BRICS countries. The differences within the countries imply that the analysis must proceed at a technology specific level. China has considerable capabilities in technologies such as photovoltaics, solar thermal or buildings. There is a strong need for strategic positioning of the countries and for coordination of the various policy fields involved.     

Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

Energy Embodied in Goods in International Trade of China: Calculation and Policy Implications

In recent years, China’s energy demand and Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown very fast, quite an amount of which was exported as energy embodied in goods in international trade rather than consumed domestically. Starting from the concept of embodied energy, based on input-output energy analysis approach, in this paper the energy embodied in goods in international trade of China during the period from 2001 to 2006 is calculated. The results show that although China has become a net importer of petroleum since 1993, China is a net exporter of embodied energy due to international trade in goods. In 2002, the total amount of energy embodied in exported goods was about 410 million tce (ton of coal equivalent, hereinafter referred to as "tce"). Eliminating the amount of energy embodied in imported goods of about 170 million tce, the net export of embodied energy was about 240 million tce, accounting for 16% of the aggregate primary energy consumption of that very year in China, and the net export of embodied emissions was about 150 million tons of carbon. With the rapid growth of China’s international trade, assuming no structural input-output changes of among sectors, in 2006 the net export of embodied energy went up to about 630 million tce, an increase of 162 % over 2002. In addition, this paper also analyzes the possible sources of error in calculation, and also discusses the policy implications according to the result of the calculation.     

A Comparative Study on the Implementation of CDM Projects in India

Since the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol was initiated,China and India have overwhelmingly led other developing countries regarding CDM projects development.A comparative study of the CDM in India and China is conducted as there are many similarities between both India and China with regard to the CDM implementation due to the fact that India is another major developing country with a large population and a potential source of GHG emissions rivaling China in the near future.Through examining the development of and legal issues for CDM projects in India,its experience and lessons regarding developing and managing CDM projects that China can critically learn are discussed.     

Environmental Capital,Negative Externality and Carbon Finance Innovation

In the context of global climate change,the internalization of negative externality,which is brought about by the traditional mode of economic growth,has become an inevitable choice.In order to achieve the internalization,it is necessary to make innovations on the market mechanism and system,find the value of environmental capital,establish a new mode of economic growth based on environmental capital,and then transform the environmental capital,an exogenous factor of economic growth,into an endogenous factor.Of this,the key of market mechanism and system innovation is the financial innovation that is based on environmental capital and negative externality;the government defines the initial property right of environmental resources and establishes environment energy trading market,so as to guide enterprises to trade environmental resources(represented by carbon emission permit trading) based on the Clean Development Mechanism,and to vigorously develop environmental finance and carbon finance.     

China-Indian Silk Trade: Current Production and Future Prospects

Abstract

As an important traditional labor-intensive industry of both India and China, the cocoon silk industry has long made great contributions to the ecological environment protection, rural economic development and the increase in export income of both countries. India is not only a very important cocoon silk trading partner, but an important production competitor of China. In recent years, there has been a large increase in the production and trade of the cocoon silk between China and India; however, China relies heavily on Indian market, which leads to a tendency of further deterioration in the silk trade environment between both countries. The present article makes an empirical study of the cocoon silk resources of the two countries and the scale, product mix and market structure of China–Indian silk trade from 2001 to 2007. Overall silk trading volumes from China to India and market concentration rate are on the increase because of the superiority of Chinese cocoon silk production over that of India. Owing to scattered market share and export that mainly focused on raw materials product, there has been a phenomenon of price reduction and quantity increase. India carries out fierce competition with China in the international market and even imposes antidumping sanction on Chinese silk, which are key factors restricting further increase between China–India trade. Based on the abovementioned facts, the authors aim to put forward suggestions for steadily developing the production and trade of China’s silk.     

贸易隐含污染物测算及结构绿色转型研究

该文根据中国2002年和2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的CO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含污染物,分析了贸易隐含污染物的行业结构分布以及在主要贸易伙伴国中的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了出口规模总量、出口结构变化、投入产出表中间结构变化及单位产值CO2排放量四大因素对出口贸易隐含CO2的贡献。研究结果表明:2002-2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含CO2、SO2顺差,2002年和2007年贸易隐含CO2顺差达6.21×108t和1.38×109t。2002年和2007年贸易隐含SO2顺差分别为323.99万t和674.54万t;出口贸易规模的扩大使我国出口贸易隐含CO2大幅增加,带来了巨大的环境压力,且出口贸易结构、投入产出中间结构变化也增加了出口贸易隐含CO2的排放。但是单位产值的CO2排放量的降低对抑制隐含CO2增长值发挥了十分重要作用,故需要进一步优化贸易结构,调整产业结构,提高能源利用效率,也就是贸易结构绿色转型势在必行。     

入世前后中国农业贸易引致的就业“创造与替代”

我国加入世贸组织后,除了粮食安全、比较优势、竞争力等方面的影响研究外,农产品贸易开放对我国农业生产部门就业的影响一直令人关注,是具有比较优势的劳动密集型农产品出口带来更多就业创造,还是土地密集型农产品进口引致更多就业替代?本文运用1994-2009年数据,对入世前后农产品贸易开放引致的农业就业效应进行全面系统的实证分析,并对在不同情形下我国未来贸易引致的农业就业替代效应的程度和方式进行了模拟分析。研究结果表明:入世后我国农产品贸易引致的农业就业效应呈现出更明显的就业净替代变化;同时,在技术水平不变的情况下,我国未来劳动密集型农产品的实际出口增速与平抑就业替代压力的"理想增速"相距甚远,未来土地密集型净进口所产生的农业就业替代量将在较大程度上超过劳动密集型净出口创造的就业机会,我国农业就业整体"净替代"的趋势可能将长期持续。     

Water pollution footprints induced by industrial import and export in China

With the rapid development of foreign trade in China, industrial import and export has been an absolute subject in recent years. The huge trade surplus of import and export trade of industrial products brings not only high profits, but also pollution costs as well. Based on the concept of water pollution footprints (WPFs), this study applies the input-output method and calculates pollutant-producing coefficients of 20 major industrial sectors in China and investigates the WPFs caused by the import and export trades of these industrial sectors. The research results show that WPF resulting from exports exceeds that of imports from 2011 to 2015 in China. The net inflow of pollution footprint is mainly from paper mills, printing and stationery manufacturing, and textile industry; whereas a great number of WPFs are transferred to other countries by these sectors, such as metal mining and dressing industry and oil and natural gas exploitation industry.     

长江中游沿江地区发展冶金工业的资源、条件及对策

长江中游沿江地区有我国第二大钢铁基地─—武钢和国家重要有色基地─—大冶，冶金工业已成为区内的支柱产业，在全国有举足轻重的地位。如何利用现有基础和交通、区位、技术等优势，弥补资源和设备落后等不足，以求更大发展，对区域经济发展和实现“中部崛起”的战略，有着重要的意义。     

经济增长、国际贸易与污染排放的关系研究——基于美国和中国SO2排放的实证分析

在世界经济一体化进程中,国际贸易成为影响各国环境污染变化的重要因素,将其纳入经济增长与环境污染间关系的分析框架是环境学界关注的一个重要问题。本文基于联立方程模型,从经济产出、污染排放、污染治理和国际贸易等四个方面探讨了经济增长与污染排放的相互作用机理,并以美国、中国SO2排放为例进行了实证研究。结果表明:污染排放对经济产出有影响,且对美国和中国分别为正作用和负作用。经济增长增加了两国国内污染排放,且中国增加的相对更多。而污染治理均减少了国内污染排放,美、中的污染减排弹性系数分别为-0.277和-0.417。国际贸易对美国起到污染减排作用,对中国的影响不显著,考虑到贸易对中国经济增长的拉动作用,其经济规模间接污染效应不容忽视。对于中国而言,加大污染治理投资、改善贸易进出口状况、降低经济发展过程中的污染排放是实现经济与环境协调发展的有效途径。     

环境规制、要素禀赋与我国贸易模式的实证分析

当今的全球化趋势在导致贸易壁垒不断削减的同时,各国的环境规制却随之不断提升.本文使用世界银行的产业污染排放系统(IPPS)对我国制造业进行细分,运用显示性比较优势指数方法,把环境规制因素和要素禀赋因素同时引入到对贸易模式的分析.结果表明,贸易开放使我国的比较优势得以发挥,这表现为更多地专业化于清洁的劳动密集型产业,因此,即使总的污染排放有所增加,但单位产出的污染排放强度会有所下降.但另一方面,贸易开放使外资的流入增加,而资本累积是影响污染排放强度的主要因素,这必将导致我国的制造业结构更多地转向污染产业.因此,随着我国对外开放程度的加深,污染排放必呈上升态势.针对污染排放增加的原因,有效地利用产业政策和环境政策对实现资源环境的可持续发展是相当重要的.     

21世纪中国西部矿产资源开发的战略思考

作为全国资源的富集区,西部矿业开发要在21世纪地区经济发展中作出应有的贡献,不仅需要一个长期的开发过程,而且更需要一个明智而有效的发展战略,从西部地区资源、环境、区位条件及长期实践出发,认真把握未来市场变化、积极推动精品为先发展,努力调整地区产品结构和合理组织空间生产应成为21世纪西部矿产资源开发战略的四项基本内容,上述战略的实施不仅有束于资源的保障、中央政府的认呆和资金与技术的支持,而且有赖于整个社会环保意识的加强。     

21世纪前期长江流域粮食产业发展对策

长江流域光、热、水、土等农业资源时空组合优势明显,土地自然生产力较高,粮食生产在全国占有重要地位。21世纪初中国加入WTO以后,长江流域作为“大米带”的优势将更为明显。长江流域粮食产业发展除应考虑国家宏观发展战略,需要采用与国家粮食产业发展相协调的政策体系外,还应解决自身存在的总量不稳、产业化程度低、产业效益差以及品种结构不合理等问题。