城市可持续发展江岸倡议书

我们 ,来自国家可持续发展实验区、参加在武汉市江岸区举行的“城市可持续发展研讨会”的代表 ,围绕城市实施可持续发展战略展开了充分的研讨。我们认为 ,城市应认真贯彻实施国家可持续发展战略 ,城市以人口集中、资源集聚、财富集聚、运行高效、经济发展快、资源消耗量大、环境污染严重、社会问题突出等特点而成为地方可持续发展战略中最具综合性的区域。无论在老城市的改造、建设、发展过程中 ,还是因农村城市化进程加快而涌现的新城市 ,可持续发展都是城市未来发展所面临的重大课题。我们 ,经过多年实验区的工作实践 ,深知城市实施可持续…     

城市人居环境可持续发展评价研究——以大连市为例

城市人居环境的可持续发展是现代城市建设和发展的最终目标。本文建立了城市人居环境可持续发展的评价指标体系及评价模型 ;通过对大连市城市人居环境实地调查 ,运用Fuzzy方法对大连市城市人居环境可持续发展进行评价分析 ,确定了城市人居环境发展阶段 ;根据评价结果 ,结合大连市人居环境的具体情况 ,提出了大连市城市人居环境可持续发展的对策     

武汉市水资源可持续利用评价

水作为人类所需要的不可替代的一种自然资源,是社会经济持续发展的重要支撑之一。解决武汉市的水问题,直接关系到武汉市人民群众的生活,关系到社会的稳定,关系到城市的可持续发展。采用定量方法——层次分析法和综合指数法对武汉市水资源进行评价,找出近几年来武汉市水资源持续利用的趋势,为武汉市水资源的可持续利用提供可靠的依据。具体步骤是：首先采用层次分析法确定武汉市水资源可持续利用评价指标体系;其次,对武汉市各年代水资源评价指标分别赋值、确定权重;其三,按照加权相加的方法（即综合指数法）评定出武汉市各年代水资源利用得分;最后根据各年代分值的大小进行对比分析,得出武汉市水资源利用变化趋势。     

基于信息熵的武汉市城市生态系统演化分析研究

基于信息熵的分析方法,在前人的研究基础上,以武汉市2000~2010年城市生态系统发展为例,通过计算城市生态系统输入-输出熵流、代谢熵产生和系统总熵变,分析系统演化发展规律及原因;分别采用综合发展度和协调发展度评估城市的可持续发展水平,并将其进行指数化表征。分析结果表明：近11 a内系统熵流和总熵总体是呈现振荡式下降趋势,而熵产生先升后降,武汉市总体不断向着健康、有序方向发展,但有序度不稳定;近年来协调发展度和综合发展度二者保持同时增长,说明武汉市城市生态系统不断向着可持续方向发展,但武汉市目前仍处于初级协调发展水平     

基于混合指标值TODIM方法的东营市生态系统健康评价

城市生态系统健康评价是城市可持续发展以及城市生态文明建设的需要。在当今各种"城市病"频发的背景下,研究城市生态系统健康水平,不仅有利于协调城市发展与城市生态系统健康之间的矛盾,而且对于指导城市建设规划编制,监控城市生态环境的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。鉴于此,论文在原有的城市生态系统健康评价指标的基础上,通过基于混合指标值的TODIM方法评价东营市2007—2013年间的城市生态系统健康状况,并分析活力、组成结构、恢复力、维持生态系统服务功能以及生态系统认知的构成指标对城市生态系统健康状况的影响。为了避免主观判断对城市生态系统健康评价的不确定性,文章采用兼顾客观信息和主观信息的组合权重赋权法确定各个指标的权重;根据东营市城市生态系统健康评价指标的特性和数据特点,建立了混合多属性决策TODIM方法的数学模型;采用扩展的TODIM方法对东营市城市生态系统健康状况进行评价,并分析了各个指标在城市生态发展过程中的作用。研究表明:(1)东营市的城市生态系统健康状况一直向好,由脆弱状态逐渐过渡到亚健康状态,但是生态状况仍然不容乐观,距离健康状态仍有较大的差距;(2)环保投入力度不足、污染物排放量增加、产业结构仍不完善、建成区人口密度过高等成为制约东营市城市生态系统健康发展的突出问题。文章提出了相应的对策建议,以促进城市生态系统的健康发展。     

长江沿岸中心城市土地扩张时空演化特征——以宁汉渝3市为例

基于国家新型城镇化与"T"字型发展战略理论内涵,选取长江沿岸上、中、下游中心城市重庆、武汉和南京为实证研究对象,以1980、1990、2000、2010年4期遥感影像资料为基础数据源,通过RS、GIS和景观生态结合分析,分别对其城市扩张强度、城市扩张类型和城市建设用地扩张弹性进行对比分析,并采用景观指数进行了进一步分析和验证,从而系统分析了近30 a来3个城市建设用地扩张的时空特征与内在机理。结果表明:(1)30 a来,南京、武汉和重庆3市城市扩张强度均呈明显上升趋势,总体呈现南京市>武汉市>重庆市,但2000年是一个分水岭,之后重庆市城市扩张增速赶超武汉市,南京市反而增速最低;(2)对城市扩张类型分析表明,南京市始终以边缘式增长为主;武汉市在2000年之前以飞地式扩张主导,2000年之后呈现边缘式增长;重庆市以边缘式增长为主,但2000年之后飞地式增长迅速;(3)从城市建设用地扩张弹性分析表明,1980~2010年南京市土地扩张相比城市人口开始减缓,而武汉市和重庆市在2000年以后城市扩张速度远远超过城市人口增长速度;(4)景观指数验证分析结果显示,遥感分析、地理信息分析和景观生态分析的结合能够很好反映城市建设用地的扩张过程及演化特征。     

2000~2014年武汉市城市扩展时空特征分析

基于不同时相的高分辨率遥感影像，采用面向对象的解译方法提取了武汉市2000、2005、2010和2014年的土地覆被信息，从城市扩展强度指数，城市中心坐标迁移和分形维数等方面分析了武汉市2000～2014年城市扩展时空特征。结果表明：2000～2014年间，武汉市城市扩展强度指数为1.41，各主城区城市扩展强度不一，洪山区建设用地的增加对主城区城市扩展的贡献最大；在扩展过程中，武汉市城市分形维数增加，城市空间形态变复杂；其扩展呈现核心-放射扩展模式，并逐渐转向圈层式；自然条件、经济、人口、交通、政策和城市规划是武汉市城市扩展的主要驱动力，但随着交通的发展，自然条件和经济对武汉市城市扩展的驱动作用正逐渐减弱。     

数字城市与城市可持续发展

“数字城市”是当前研究的热点问题,数字城市的研究和建设将满足城市可持续发展的信息共享、综合决策、技术集成的需求,是一个理想的平台,本文较为详细的阐述了城市可持续发展的内涵,并在研究数字城市产生背景、国内外现状之后,提出了支持城市可持续发展的数字城市研究框架,并对数字城市所包含的关键技术和研究内容进行了阐述。     

武汉市生态环境与可持续发展的问题与措施

生态环境是经济发展的基本要素，也是人类赖以生存繁衍的基本条件。但由于种种原因，导致生态破坏、环境污染。使武汉市面临生存与发晨的严重威胁。本文从武汉市的实际情况出发，分析了武汉市可持续发展战略中生态环境存在的若干问题。并提出了以加强多种手段的结合保护环境，防治环境恶化和优化环保流程，减少污染物等若干对策。     

武汉城市湖泊水环境现状及综合整治途径

近十几年来,随着人口的增长,现代工业和农业的发展,湖泊的老化过程受到人类活动的影响而大大加速。过量营养物质的富集,使水体产生了一系列的变化。结合武汉市湖泊水环境现状分析,指出了武汉市湖泊当前存在的三个突出的问题,即污染严重、湖泊萎缩和水量锐减、湖泊生态系统遭破坏。在此基础上,提出了一套适合武汉湖泊整治的综合途径,具体包括以下四个方面的内容：①管理组织模式与政策法规;②提高工程的科技含量,重点实施湖泊生态修复工程;③发展水经济,形成新的产业增长点;④加强水文化建设,提高市民的环保意识。武汉市湖泊水环境作为修复对象,由此形成的适于国内城市严重富营养景观水体整治的技术和管理体系,具有十分重要的现实意义和推广应用价值。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.     

Long-term increase in climatic dryness in the East-Mediterranean as evidenced for the island of Samos

The Eastern Mediterranean region is among the regions which were predicted to become drier under IPCC climate scenarios. Here, we document a gradual reduction of rainfall and tree growth and the loss of rural springs during the last decades of the twentieth century. Years with severe drought are associated with very low tree growth (dendrochronology) and dry falling of springs as evidenced by interviews with local stakeholders. The paper discusses the consequences of accelerating drought on natural vegetation and agriculture and points at the interaction with fire dynamics and economy, both likely to enhance the drought effect.     

Dynamics of Restoration Processes in the Idle Solonetz Ecosystems in the Southern Transural Region

The initial period of idleness in the solonetz ecosystems of the southern Transural Region is characterized by a significant variability of their soil–plant communities, which is determined by natural periodicity and general direction of the process of ecosystem restoration. Selective consumption of salinizing ions by the plants growing on idle land activates the development of desalinization processes.