适应气候变化的分析框架及政策涵义

适应气候变化与发展议题密切相关,这也使得适应成为一个过于宽泛的命题,影响了对适应内涵的理解。首先,本文基于国内外对适应问题的探讨,提出了适应气候变化的基本分析框架,即基于不同发展阶段的适应需求,区分增量型适应和发展型适应,并通过工程性适应、技术性适应和制度性适应三种适应手段增强适应能力。增量型适应是指在系统现有基础上考虑新增风险所需的增量投入,这种适应所针对的是发展需求基本得到满足,仅仅需要应对新增的气候风险所需的适应活动;发展型适应是指由于发展水平滞后,使得系统应对常规风险的能力和投入不足,需要协同考虑发展需求及新增的气候风险。其次,分析了适应的四个基本步骤,即:①评估气候风险及脆弱性;②甄别各种可能的适应对策;③选择可行的适应措施;④推荐"成功"的适应行动。还介绍了相应的社会经济分析方法,如脆弱性评估、社会经济影响评估、适应的成本效益分析等。最后,基于中国适应气候变化的基本需求及优先领域,提出了相应的政策建议,如开发农业适应技术、加强流域综合治理、开展健康风险监测、实施灾害保险计划等。     

应对气候变化的林业行动及其对就业的影响

当前,气候变化、可持续发展和就业问题备受世人瞩目。本文首先概述了气候变化、森林、林业与就业的相关关系;阐述了中国应对气候变化的主要林业行动框架,归纳出林业碳增汇、碳贮存和碳替代是林业应对气候变化的三种主要方式;并介绍了中国积极实施天然林保护工程、退耕还林等林业重点工程,大力发展碳汇林业和能源林业的具体实践;进而定性分析了中国林业重点行动对就业的正负面影响,并以广西碳汇试点项目为例加以佐证,最后阐明了中国林业发展及就业的潜力。研究结果表明,林业通过碳增汇、碳贮存和碳替代三种主要途径和系列行动,为减缓和适应全球气候变化做出了积极的贡献;应对气候变化的造林绿化等一系列林业行动对就业产生了积极的影响;此外,我国未来林业用地开发利用潜力、物种资源利用潜力和林业产业开发潜力巨大,由此创造的就业潜力也十分可观。因此,在当前全球气候变暖和经济衰退的双重压力下,加大林业领域投资,大力增加森林碳汇,并促进林业绿色就业具有重要的战略意义。     

污染减排的协同效应评价研究——以攀枝花市为例

从来源和产生机理上看,传统污染物控制措施会对温室气体减排产生一定的协同效应。量度污染减排的协同效应对成本有效地实现减排目标以及传统污染物和全球温室气体减排"双赢"具有重要意义。本研究以总量减排的"工程减排"、"结构减排"和"管理减排"三种手段为出发点,根据污染减排项目种类和不同脱硫工艺,开发了分类式污染减排的协同效应评价方法。并据此,以攀枝花市为案例,对其"十一五"29项总量减排措施进行了定量评价。研究表明,总量减排措施对减缓全球温室气体排放既有正效益,也有负效应,还有0的情况存在,不同减排技术和措施产生不同的协同效应,但总体上有显著的正协同效益。     

碳交易机制下林业碳汇产品类别比较与价值核算模型甄别北大核心CSCDCSSCI

林业碳汇产品进入碳交易机制有利于发挥林业生态系统的减排功能,林业碳汇产品的价值核算可赋予林业碳汇经济价值。该研究在系统梳理国内外碳交易机制的基础上,以林业碳汇产品为研究对象,辨析了林业碳汇产品与林业碳汇项目的关联机理,结合木材和碳汇双重收益特征,以净现值法为方法学基础,归纳了三种林业碳汇产品碳量模型的适用性,并从林业碳汇项目的碳价波动反应、树种适用性、管理特性等方面对三种碳量模型进行了甄别比较。研究表明:①林业碳汇通过自愿性碳减排与强制性碳交易两类机制,可实现气候减排和经济效益双重价值,但中国林业碳汇面临产品界定不明晰及核算方法学错配等问题。②林业碳汇产品的价值核算需依据林业碳汇项目的最优轮伐期和“碳量”评估。基于时间期限划分临时核证减排量(tCER)、长期核证减排量(lCER)和国家核证自愿减排量(CCER)三类林业碳汇产品,其中tCER和lCER是应对林业碳汇项目非持久性的重要解决方案,CCER可通过永久性信用及稳定定价机制提高林业碳汇产品的减排有效性。③林业碳汇产品的核心价值在于其碳储能力及碳量水平,其价值核算应将“碳量”作为基本前提。基于“碳量”的林业碳汇产品价值核算模型,主要涉及碳总量、碳均量及碳增量三种模型。④以碳价波动反应来看,碳均量模型可从项目整体减缓碳价波动影响。以碳汇树种来看,碳总量模型适用于慢生树种,碳增量模型适用于速生树种,碳均量核算模型更适合依据生态价值调节树种选择方案。以项目管理特性来看,碳增量模型适用于长期管理方案,碳均量模型则能结合项目历史基线,更易于制订合理的碳储量水平。     

中国应对气候变化技术清单研究

应对气候变化技术清单(简称"气候技术清单")的编制对于促进技术研发、示范、推广具有重要引导作用,对中国加强生态文明建设、实现碳达峰与碳中和目标、提升全球气候治理能力具有重要意义。文章首先对已有气候技术清单进行分类梳理,提出现有技术推广清单、技术需求清单、未来技术清单的划分框架;以此为基础集成不同方法和信息,提出了中国应对气候变化现有技术推广清单、中国减缓气候变化技术需求清单、中国应对气候变化关键核心技术清单、中国应对气候变化未来技术清单共4份技术清单,并从技术成熟度、减排成本、减排潜力、经济效益、社会影响、不确定性等方面对部分核心技术进行了分析。研究认为:中国重点行业和关键部门均已有较为成熟的减缓/适应技术作为实现应对气候变化目标的支撑,多部门协作推广气候友好型技术的体系已经建立且在发挥积极作用;气候技术需求集中在传统技术装备升级改造类技术、可再生能源技术和管理决策类支撑技术,关键核心技术集中在3大领域12个亟须突破的技术方向;关乎碳达峰、碳中和目标的深度减排/零碳排放技术和地球工程类技术(CDR和SRM)在未来全球减排格局中的作用备受关注,对其综合成本效益、技术融合方向、技术成熟度以及道德伦理、生态影响等方面不确定性程度的判断,关乎着国家技术战略方向。同时,针对中长期技术部署、提升技术转化率、促进关键核心技术研发、形成技术清单协同更新与发布机制等国家应对气候变化创新体系的重要环节,从多个角度提出了相关政策建议。     

中国气候变化影响、风险与适应研究新进展

本文基于气候变化影响与适应领域的研究,重点聚焦国家第三次气候变化评估报告发布以来的最新成果,从全国尺度评估气候变化对我国社会经济可持续发展重点领域的影响,揭示气候变化对各重点领域影响的时空格局及区域差异,预估未来气候变化风险,为国家应对气候变化宏观政策制定和促进社会经济可持续发展提供科技支撑。本文评估了重点领域的影响和风险、重大工程和脆弱区的影响和风险、综合风险与适应三个方面,分析了气候变化对农业、水资源、海洋与海岸带、自然生态系统、人体健康和环境、重大工程、脆弱区的影响与风险及区域综合风险和适应的最新研究进展。气候变暖在改变区域水热资源分配的同时,对农业、水资源、海洋与海岸带、人体健康等相关敏感领域和区域产生了十分明显影响,并且将在未来进一步加剧这些领域和区域的风险,特别是农牧交错带和黄土高原风险较为突出,同时气候变化将对青藏铁路、南水北调等重大工程产生不利影响。我国在适应气候变化领域战略研究和实践上有了长足的进步,提出了有序适应气候变化的理念并设计了实施路线图,但是在综合风险和适应领域的研究整体上还比较薄弱,综合风险和适应研究仍无法有效支撑气候变化应对工作。气候变化在某种程度上带来气候资源,对自然系统和社会经济的负面影响明显。研究再次表明,气候变化利弊共存,总体上弊大于利。     

农业领域应对气候变化的适应措施与对策

农业是对气候变化反应最为敏感和脆弱的领域之一,任何程度的气候变化都会给农业生产及其相关过程带来潜在的或显著的影响,而提高适应能力是农业领域应对气候变化的主要对策。气候变化对农业领域的主要影响包括:气候变暖使我国年平均气温上升,农业生产所需的热量资源都有不同程度的增加,延长了气候生长季,气候变化对农业气候资源产生影响;气候变化使我国的种植制度和农业布局发生改变,导致种植区和种植制度分界线北移;气候变化对农作物产量和品质产生影响;气候变化还对农业旱涝及病虫害等气候灾害及粮食安全和农产品贸易产生影响。中国幅员辽阔,受气候变化影响的农业领域区域差异特征显著,开展适应措施与对策研究已成为农业领域科学应对气候变化的重要内容。当前主要适应技术措施包括:调整农业种植制度和布局;选育优良农作物品种;加强农业气候灾害防控;加强农业基础设施建设等。在此基础上,本文分析了农业领域在适应气候变化中存在适应技术薄弱分散,尚未建立完善的适应技术清单;评估方法中缺少对适应技术的成本效益分析以及资金和政策障碍等问题。提出将来应对气候变化中农业领域适应技术措施的发展趋势和方向,主要包括通过对气候变化影响的科学系统研究,减少不确定性,提升农业在全球气候谈判中地位;建立适应技术清单和技术集成体系以及建立科学选择和评估适应技术的方法步骤,在一定程度上通过增强适应能力来减轻气候变化的不利影响,以促进我国农业的可持续发展。     

中国水泥行业节能减排的潜力与成本分析

全球水泥的温室气体排放约占人类活动排放的5%,其中中国的水泥产量就占到世界总量的50%,连续25年居世界第一位,2010年中国水泥总产量达到18.8亿t。水泥行业是我国排放和耗能的大户,其产业特点是总体产量高,企业平均规模小、技术水平低和产品结构落后,因而,水泥行业节能减排行动是我国应对气候变化的重要措施和基本内容,也是实现我国水泥工业可持续发展的重要保证。本文通过大量的实地调研和数据收集,在识别了18种水泥行业节能减排的典型技术基础上,以日产5 000 t的生产线作为基准,通过边际减排成本的测算,定量分析了我国水泥行业节能减排技术的减排潜力和成本,并最终得到这些技术的边际减排成本曲线,按照减排成本由低到高的排序,主要的减排技术分为能源利用效率、替代能源、混合水泥和CCS技术。最后通过分析我国水泥行业节能减排的技术现状及相关的政策障碍,给出了相应的应对措施和政策建议。     

气候变化对中国的影响利弊

气候变化对自然生态系统、自然资源、三次产业、社会系统及自然灾害等领域的影响包括:气候变化对自然生态系统结构和功能产生深刻影响,如东北多年冻土区植被生产力下降,而青藏高原则升高;气候变化导致华北、东北大部分地区降水减少以及许多北方河流径流量减少;由于气候变化,人们生产生活对能源的需求发生变化;气候变化导致的极端事件增加(包括频次与强度)、水资源短缺等问题对人体健康、疾病传播、重大工程等具有重要影响;气候变化背景下,热量资源的改善有助于延长农作物生育期,但极端事件增加也会造成农业生产的不稳定;气候变化不仅可通过影响农业和自然资源而间接地对第二、三产业产生影响,而且气候变化减缓措施(如碳税、碳关税、碳交易等)的采用也将对社会经济产生广泛而深刻的影响。进一步,通过分析可发现,气候变化的影响具有显著的区域差异性,而且总体上利弊共存,但弊大于利。基于此,本文提出要趋利避害,科学应对气候变化,实现"整体最优、长期受益"的有序适应目标;要强调定量适应,提出可操作性方案和可预期目标,并分析适应措施的不确定性;而且为提高我国未来综合竞争力,今后应采取更加主动的应对策略,如逐渐调整产业结构,加大减排技术研发,积极应对碳税、碳关税和碳市场对中国社会经济发展的影响等。     

应对气候变化的适应技术框架研究

减缓和适应是应对气候变化的两个重要方面,适应则更为现实和迫切,而适应技术的正确选择与表述是应对气候变化研究的关键内容。本研究以易受气候变化影响的农业、林业、水资源、海岸带、生态系统以及人类健康等领域为对象,在分析各领域受气候变化的影响危害及其适应技术响应基础上,初步总结归纳出11项应对气候变化的适应技术表达方式,主要包括预警、工程研发、动态监测、评估、灾害防控、适应空间、适应长效性、模型分析、重大工程、行业标准和规范以及社会影响与宣传等类型的技术表达方式;在此基础上建立应对气候变化的适应技术选择框架,对各领域适应技术进行初步归类;最后提出应对气候变化的各类型适应技术选择的基本操作步骤。研究结果可以为未来适应技术清单的统一归类和选择提供理论参考和技术依据。     

How might adaptation to climate change by smallholder farming communities contribute to climate change mitigation outcomes? A case study from Timor-Leste,Southeast Asia

The agriculture industry is significantly exposed to the impacts of climate change, and is also responsible for contributing extensive greenhouse gas emissions. As a way of responding to both adaptation and mitigation challenges within the industry, this article examines how community-based climate change adaptation initiatives might provide mitigation outcomes in the agriculture sector in Timor-Leste. Beginning with an exploration of nation-wide institutional responses to climate change, the study utilises interviews, field observations and document analysis to examine an extensive community-based adaptation program in two districts in Timor-Leste focused on increasing the resilience of the agriculture sector and the livelihoods of poor rural farmers. Analysis of this program reveals a largely synergistic relationship between adaptation measures focused on land and water management and agriculture and their corresponding greenhouse gas mitigation potential, including co-benefits such as soil/atmospheric carbon sequestration, reduced emissions, soil nitrification and reduced use of inorganic fertilisers. Community-based adaptation programs in the agriculture sector have a significant influence on mitigation outcomes, which is often overlooked in community-based programs. The adaptation program in Timor-Leste has provided useful insights into the inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation at the community level, which could be further supported and scaled-up in other Southeast Asia countries and elsewhere.     

Exploring the Adaptation-mitigation Relationship: Does Information on the Costs of Adapting to Climate Change Influence Support for Mitigation?

Can information about adaptation costs influence citizens’ willingness to support climate change mitigation? Some scholars are concerned that policy discussions on adaptation might present climate change as a more manageable problem, and therefore crowd out mitigation efforts. On the other hand, providing information on adaptation costs may sensitize citizens to these costs, thereby increasing their willingness to support mitigation. To assess these conflicting predictions, we fielded a web-based survey experiment using a sample of 2,000 US-based respondents. We presented the respondents with a hypothetical newspaper article regarding a proposed gasoline tax (a mitigation strategy) and measured the support for this proposal across different treatment groups. In the control group, the respondents were told that failure to mitigate climate change could result in a potentially catastrophic outcome, whereas in each of the treatment groups the respondents were provided with information concerning possible adaptation costs. The respondents were then asked about their willingness to support a gasoline tax. Our key finding is that the provision of information about adaptation costs leads to a small increase in the respondents’ willingness to support mitigation efforts. Furthermore, we find that this effect becomes larger when the information regarding adaptation costs is made more specific.     

The application of the contingent valuation method in estimating the climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in Greece. An expert-based approach

When dealing with the ecological, social and economic impacts of climate change, it is important for each country to formulate and implement mitigation and adaptation measures. In this context, the present paper examines the application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) for the monetary estimation of the Greek national mitigation and adaptation climate change costs. To this purpose, the CVM in this case study has been applied to the Greek climate change experts only as, theoretically, they represent the most informed part of Greek society in technical and economic aspects of the climate change. Therefore, the findings of this paper express strictly the opinions of the national experts and are not representative of the general population. The monetary estimates include the experts’ WTP for mitigation and adaptation measures as well as their preferences on that percentage of the national GDP that should be funding such measures at the present as well as the future time-scale. In addition, questions concerning the political and institutional climate change settings are included in the survey, providing a more comprehensive socioeconomic analysis in this particular study.     

适应气候变化的认知与政策评价

气候变化已成为不争的事实.减缓和适应是人类应对气候变化的两类主要措施,在气候变化减缓行动难以很快奏效的情形下,采取具有针对性的适应战略已经成为世界各国更为紧迫的选择.一个有效的适应行动机制需要全社会的广泛参与,而公众和决策层对气候变化的认知是适应行动机制的形成基础.本文以银川阅海湿地适应气候变化能力建设为研究案例,从政府部门和社会公众两个层次进行讨论,比较其对气候变化的认知程度及其对适应措施的评价和需求,以期对适应气候变化策略的认知基础研究提供依据.研究结果表明,无论社会公众和决策层,适应气候变化的意识基础均已基本形成,但公众的认知基础要弱于决策层,并且在认知的准确程度上低于决策层;公众和决策层对气候变化适应政策的实施都做出了正面的评价,但决策层的评价普遍显著高于公众;对于适应政策的需求,公众的政策需求主要集中在公共服务方面,而决策层的适应策略是多方位的,也包括通过限制个人行为来获得公共利益.     

Communicating climate change for adaptation in rural communities: a Pacific study

The academic literature on climate change communications is growing. However, the majority of this literature focuses on the issue of climate change mitigation in a developed country context, and there is little published material regarding communication in a developing country and adaptation context. Similarly, despite community-based approaches to climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction increasing in the Pacific Islands region, there is very limited guidance on how to effectively communicate climate change in a way that enhances people’s resilience. This paper documents the experiences of organisations, including local and international non-government and faith-based organisations, governments, regional technical organisations and donor agencies in communicating climate change for adaptation in the Pacific region. Three key climate change communication challenges are highlighted and suggestions made for overcoming them based on results from interviews, a focus group discussion and an online forum. Finally, recommendations are made for good practice guidance in climate change communication that is empowering and culturally relevant.     

Potential of existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for implementing adaptation to climate change

The impacts of climate change are apparent in various regions of the world. Even though climate change may have a positive effect, it is anticipated that there will be many severely negative effects on human and natural resources in the future. Therefore, in addition to the need for stronger promotion of mitigation policies, it is urgently necessary to study and implement adaptation policies over the longer term to prepare for the possible negative impact of climate change. To implement climate change adaptation measures rapidly in Japan, it would seem practical and effective to make good use of the various countermeasures already promoted by both the national and the local governments for many sectors such as disaster prevention, environmental management, food production, and protection of the nation’s health. These countermeasures are considered to have potential for effecting climate change adaptation. This study, focusing on adaptation to climate change negative impacts, investigates to what extent the existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government could contribute to climate change adaptation, based on a comprehensive examination of targeted fields and indicators for which adaptation policies could be pursued. The results showed many of the existing policies could be useful for adaptation to climate change in many sectors. Furthermore, less than half of these policies need to take future climate change into account in order to contribute to climate change adaptation. This study proposes three basic steps that consider future climate change and local governmental propositions for the rapid implementation of adaptation policies in Japan.     

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health.We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination.Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM_2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived.A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.     

中国水资源管理适应气候变化的研究综述

以全球变暖为特征的气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的最重要议题之一。气候变化对水资源管理的影响是具有重要学术价值的新兴研究方向,目前的重点研究领域主要包括:气候变化背景下水资源综合管理方式与集成研究,气候变化下水资源适应性管理机制,中国面临的水资源均衡性管理,公众参与水资源适应性管理的政策制定,对减缓措施与水资源可持续发展的认识。主要的研究方法包括:适应气候变化的定性分析方法(多尺度适应综合分析方法)、成本效益分析方法等。适应性管理是目前应对气候变化伴随的不确定性问题的有效策略,未来应在分析中国各流域水资源不确定性问题的基础上,建立气候变化情景下适应气候变化的水资源适应性管理体制机制。     

Does “adaptation to climate change” mean resignation or opportunity?

It has been widely acknowledged that people’s beliefs and perceptions influence implementation of climate change adaptation. Regarding perception barriers, some authors keep highlighting the confused definition of adaptation and its various interpretations. Our research contributes to this area by exploring how adaptation to climate change is perceived through 83 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (public and municipal organizations, ENGO, private sector) from Montreal and Paris. Our results demonstrate a mirror opposition in the perception of adaptation to climate change. Indeed, while several respondents interpreted adaptation as a resignation, many interviewees perceived adaptation as an opportunity. The analysis showed that adaptation referring to resignation includes the ideas of a non-action and detrimental to mitigation; an excuse for not changing; anxiety about climate change; fatalism; and human failure. Adaptation perceived as an opportunity is divided into a source of creativity; toward sustainable development; led by the emergency; and awareness and making society of its responsibilities. Our findings confirm that terminological ambiguity of the term “adaptation” has to be considered in the decision-making process, which can be influenced by the perception of stakeholders.     

Reviewing the strategies for climate change and sustainability after the US defiance of the Paris Agreement: an AHP–GMCR-based conflict resolution approach

Environment, Development and Sustainability - In the landmark Paris Agreement, the global economies agreed to put forward their best efforts in mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The...