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1.
Rudra P. Pradhan Mahendhiran S. Nair Mak B. Arvin John H. Hall 《Natural resources forum》2023,47(3):435-483
This article postulates strong endogenous relationships in lower income countries between institutional quality, financial development and sustained economic growth. These associations were investigated using the vector-error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality method for a sample of 79 countries from 2005 to 2022. The findings show that (1) these variables reinforce each other in the short run. (2) In the long run, both institutional quality and financial development can fuel economic growth. (3) The positive effect of institutional quality on economic growth is greater than that of financial development. Policy implications of these findings are that careful attention should be paid to co-development policies to enhance the institutional quality and the financial system in these economies. Policies should also consider economic growth strategies to enable sustainable economic growth rates. 相似文献
2.
A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion. 相似文献
3.
通过采用LS-DYNA动力学有限元程序,模拟210 m钢筋混凝土烟囱的控制爆破拆除倒塌过程。采用数值模拟方法,不仅可以对控制爆破拆除工程中构筑物倾倒、破坏的重要影响因素进行分析,对有关理论研究结果的正确性和有效性进行验证,还能优化爆破拆除方案、预测实际爆破拆除效果,提高爆破拆除设计与施工的经济性、可靠性和安全性。 相似文献
4.
Carly E. Federman Durelle T. Scott Erich T. Hester 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(1):29-48
River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization. 相似文献
5.
Peter Wimmer Michael Düring Henri Chajmowicz Fredrik Granum Julian King Harald Kolk 《Traffic injury prevention》2019,20(4):S139-S145
AbstractObjective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety. 相似文献
6.
Erica Marshall Roozbeh Valavi Louise O’ Connor Natasha Cadenhead Darren Southwell Brendan A. Wintle Heini Kujala 《Conservation biology》2021,35(2):567-577
Developers are often required by law to offset environmental impacts through targeted conservation actions. Most offset policies specify metrics for calculating offset requirements, usually by assessing vegetation condition. Despite widespread use, there is little evidence to support the effectiveness of vegetation-based metrics for ensuring biodiversity persistence. We compared long-term impacts of biodiversity offsetting based on area only; vegetation condition only; area × habitat suitability; and condition × habitat suitability in development and restoration simulations for the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. We simulated development and subsequent offsetting through restoration within a virtual landscape, linking simulations to population viability models for 3 species. Habitat gains did not ensure species persistence. No net loss was achieved when performance of offsetting was assessed in terms of amount of habitat restored, but not when outcomes were assessed in terms of persistence. Maintenance of persistence occurred more often when impacts were avoided, giving further support to better enforce the avoidance stage of the mitigation hierarchy. When development affected areas of high habitat quality for species, persistence could not be guaranteed. Therefore, species must be more explicitly accounted for in offsets, rather than just vegetation or habitat alone. Declines due to a failure to account directly for species population dynamics and connectivity overshadowed the benefits delivered by producing large areas of high-quality habitat. Our modeling framework showed that the benefits delivered by offsets are species specific and that simple vegetation-based metrics can give misguided impressions on how well biodiversity offsets achieve no net loss. 相似文献
7.
全(多)氟烷基化合物(per(poly)fluoroalkyl substances,PFASs)在环境各个介质及人体样品中广泛被检出,近年,在室内空气和灰尘中也普遍发现PFASs.研究表明,室内空气中PFASs的含量普遍高于室外空气,室内空气和灰尘中的PFASs可能是室外空气的污染来源及人体暴露源,因此室内环境中PFASs成为环境领域的又一个研究热点.但目前为止,我国还没有开展室内空气中PFASs的相关研究,室内灰尘中PFASs的研究也相对较少.本文就室内空气和灰尘中PFASs的采样与分析方法、污染现状、来源分析及人体暴露等4个方面进行了综合阐述,以期为我国室内环境中PFASs的研究提供参考. 相似文献
8.
基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
基于Agent的建模方法(ABSS)通过自下而上的方式,考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用,来表征系统的宏观特征,是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段,在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上,讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征,总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用,分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势,讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。 相似文献
9.
J. B. Harcum Jim C. Loftis Robert C. Ward 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(3):469-478
ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily. 相似文献
10.
湖北省2008年初低温雨雪冰冻过程气候特征分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
2008年初,湖北省出现了严重的低温雨雪冰冻灾害,直接经济损失高达110亿元以上,有必要对灾害期间的气候特征进行系统、科学的分析和总结。对湖北省76个气象站2008年1月12日~2月3日气温、降水(雪)、日照以及低温持续日数等要素进行时空间差异分析及历史与同期比较,并选取10个代表站历史上所有低温雨雪天气过程,对其过程持续低温日数、最长连续雨雪日数、过程极端低温进行比较分析。结果表明:(1)此次过程的平均气温异常偏低,该省大部为-1~-2℃,比常年同期偏低4~6℃,为各站历史同期最低,其中主要是最高气温异常偏低所致,但极端低温并不低;(2)降雪过程频繁,雨雪量异常偏多;(3)低温冰冻持续时间长,该省大部在16~22 d,位于历史第一;(4)日照异常偏少。持续而稳定的大气环流异常形势是湖北省大范围低温雨雪天气的直接原因。 相似文献