洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

我国消防标准体系分析

为明确我国消防标准体系发展的方向和重点,分别从消防标准的数量、标龄、类型、属性和采标情况等5个方面对我国消防标准体系进行分析,并与国际标准化组织、欧盟标准化委员会和美国的消防标准体系进行了比较。研究结果表明:我国消防标准体系整体适用性在不断增强;需制定周期性标准复审计划;消防基础试验类和管理类标准应成为下一步消防标准制修订的重点;消防强制性标准所占比例有待进一步下调;需建立国际标准动态跟踪机制,同时应注重将我国先进的消防标准转化为国际标准。     

Funipuncture for fetocide in late termination of pregnancy

The most widely used method for fetocide in late termination of pregnancy for fetal abnormalities (TOPFA) consists of injecting of potassium chloride (KCl) into the fetal heart and is likely to be painful after 22 weeks of gestation. We studied ten consecutive women undergoing TOPFA between 22 and 38 weeks. This technique for fetocide consisted of a single umbilical vein puncture under ultrasound guidance with injections of sufentanil 5 µg followed by KCl 2 g. No electrocardiographic modifications could be observed and maternal plasma potassium levels did not show any significant variation throughout the procedure. Fetal umbilical phlebotomy for fetal analgesia followed by fetocide therefore appears to be a safe procedure for the mother and allows the fetus to die without pain when late termination of pregnancy (TOP) is indicated. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

生物絮凝剂MBFGA1预处理乳制品加工废水

用生物絮凝剂MBFGA1预处理乳制品加工废水（简称废水）。实验结果表明，废水处理的水力条件为：以150r／min的转速搅拌30S，再以30r／min的转速搅拌20min；MBFGA1的最佳加入量为15mg／L；废水pH为4．0时，MBFGA1对废水的絮凝处理效果最好；废水温度对浊度、COD去除率有一定的影响，在20～45℃时，废水浊度的去除率始终保持在85％以上；30℃时，COD去除率达到最大值65．0％。     

大型水利水电工程实施占用耕地补偿制度的思考

本文在分析长江三峡工程用地特点的基础上。对大型水利水电工程实施耕地补偿制度中的问题和困难进行调查研究，认为应从新的视角来认识大型水利水电工程的耕地占补平衡问题。进而探索耕地补偿制度实施的新途径和新方式。应在耕地总量动态平衡政策适当调整的基础上．将“以地补地”和“缴费补地”的方式相结合。既通过土地整理．在提商土地质量的前提下增加耕地的有效面积：又要落实耕地开垦费．扶持库区的土地整理。从而使库区的耕地占补制度顺利实施。     

北京核与辐射恐怖事件风险分析

采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998—2006年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合北京市的实际情况进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将北京市各类场所划分为4类敏感区并与5类涉核恐怖事件结合起来,得到北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险构成图。通过风险分析,笔者认为北京市发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为核研究机构,最容易发生的核与辐射恐怖事件类型为涉及放射源的恐怖事件,结合分析结果对从阻止、探测、响应3个层次上提出了奥运核安保工作的反核恐工作建议。     

Diffusion pollution from livestock and poultry rearing in the Yangtze Delta,China

BACKGROUND: The Yangtze Delta is one of the most developed regions in China and includes Shanghai, eight cities in Jiangsu province and eight cities in Zhejiang province. Meat consumption in this region has increased with economic growth, and most of the consumed meat is produced locally. The water quality of surface waters has deteriorated in recent years. An example was the huge blue-green algae bloom in Tai Lake in late May 2007, which affected millions of people's daily drinking water. However, animal husbandry is considered to be one of the main pollution sources. METHODS: Pollutants (NH3-N, total phosphorus (TP), and total nitrogen (TN)) excreted by livestock and poultry, and the resultant COD (chemical oxygen demand) and BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), were estimated using two different methods based on different data sets. RESULTS: The number of livestock and poultry has remained stable in the Yangtze Delta over the four years from 1999 to 2002, with the average number of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry being 21.1 M, 0.4 M, 7.7 M and 597.6 M, respectively. Pollutants in livestock and poultry excreta estimated by Method I were: 0.12 Mt NH3-N, 0.11 Mt TP and 0.29 Mt TN, resulting in COD and BOD of 1.34 Mt and 1.30 Mt, respectively, while the estimations based on Method II were: 0.18 Mt NH3-N, 0.15 Mt TP and 0.40 Mt TN, resulting in COD and BOD of 1.95 Mt and 1.80 Mt, respectively. DISCUSSION: Pollutants excreted annually by livestock and poultry in the Yangtze Delta are estimated to be: 0.17 Mt NH3-N, 0.16 Mt TP and 0.42 Mt TN, giving rise to a COD of 1.86 Mt and a BOD of 1.72 Mt. Approximately 25% of this pollution was estimated to enter water bodies, which means that the annual pollutant load is 43,700 t NH3-N, 39,400 tTP, 104,600t TN with a COD of 465,000 tand a BOD of 430,100 t. Pollutants from animal husbandry were similar in magnitude to those from industrial wastewater. Pigs produced the most pollution, followed by poultry, cattle and sheep. The pollution load from animal husbandry in the Yangtze Delta is about twice the average level of the whole of China. CONCLUSIONS: Domestic wastewater was the main pollution source in the Yangtze Delta, followed by pollution from raising livestock and poultry and from industrial wastewater. The pollution load in Shanghai and Jiaxing were the greatest, followed by 7 cities of Jiangsu province (except Suzhou) and other cities of Zhejiang province and Suzhou. Pigs and poultry produced about 90% of the total pollutants from animal husbandry. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: The local governments, especially in Shanghai and Jiaxing, should focus their attention on the pollution produced by livestock and poulrry. Controlling pollution from pigs and poultry will have the greatest impact in this region. Control of pollution will be facilitated by the development of large-scale livestock and poultry farming units and a shift away from small scale husbandry.     

Making Capacity Building Meaningful: A Framework for Strategic Action

This paper aims to give practical meaning to ‘capacity building’ through (a) identifying a suite of practical measures, such as mentoring or best practice guidelines, that have been shown to or are considered to build human, social, institutional, and economic capital; (b) placing these measures within a broader systems framework; and (c) exploring stakeholder feedback on specific measures to inform framework implementation. The 29 measures described provide actors, whether government or nongovernment, with a suite of practical investment choices for building capacity. These measures are then clustered into eight groups according to their primary purpose and placed within a systems framework. The framework provides a tool for actors with responsibilities for or an interest in capacity building to inform more holistic and strategic targeting of effort and investment. Stakeholder feedback gathered through surveys and workshops is subsequently reported to further inform implementation of specific measures within the framework’s eight groupings. The framework presented may be built upon through the identification and inclusion of further capacity building measures. The research is conducted within the context of decentralized governance arrangements for natural resource management (NRM), with specific focus on Australia’s recently formalized 56 NRM regions and their community-based governing boards as an informative arena of learning. Application of the framework is explored in the Australian setting through the identification and comparison of measures supported and most preferred by four major stakeholder groups, namely board members, regional NRM organization staff, policy/research interests, and Indigenous interests. The research also examines stakeholder perceptions of capacity issues, and whether these issues are likely to be addressed through implementing their preferred measures.

用海泡石处理采油废水

用海泡石吸附法处理采油废水，考察了处理时间、海泡石加入量和采油废水pH对采油废水COD去除率的影响，并通过正交实验优化了采油废水处理工艺条件。通过正交实验得到的采油废水处理最佳工艺条件为：处理时间6h，粒径为150μm的海泡石加入量200g／L，采油废水pH9。在该条件下处理采油废水，COD去除率达到91％，处理后出水的COD为34．71mg／L，小于GB8978-1996（（污水综合排放标准》中的一级标准（60mg／L）。