对地铁工程风险评估体系框架的研究

地铁工程同一般建设项目相比,受不可预见的水文地质条件、社会环境、施工技术的可靠度、经济发展的程度等多方面因素的影响较重;就必然使地铁工程成为高风险的工程建设项目,然而目前对其风险评估工作还停留在简单的定性和定量的评估水平上。为此,笔者在研究系统论的基础上,从动态系统风险评估的观点出发,运用动态控制的原理,着重研究适合于地铁工程风险评估体系的理论框架,及建立理论框架时应考虑的诸多问题;同时对动态系统风险评估、评价因素可靠性分析技术、各种风险评估方法及评估技术的运用做了简要论述。该框架体系不仅适用于地铁工程的风险评估,同样适用于其他复杂的工程系统的风险评估评价。     

基于粗糙集理论的路段交通事故多发点成因分析

交通事故多为多种原因综合造成且具有不确定性。判别各因素对于引发交通事故的影响程度存在困难,因此,需要引入不确定性分析方法。基于粗糙集理论具有处理不精确、不确定与不完全数据的优势,是一种先进的并处于不断发展的不确定性分析和推理方法。笔者提出路段上交通事故成因分析的模型和方法。具体做法是,根据该路段事故多发点的统计数据建立基于粗糙集理论的决策表,再利用粗糙集模型的简约算法求出各个因素的重要性,从而判断各因素对交通事故的影响程度大小,为决策提供依据。以算例说明模型和方法的可用性。     

二安替比林甲烷分光光度法测定氯化镁中钛的含量

用盐酸溶解氯化镁样品,以抗坏血酸和焦磷酸钠共同作掩蔽剂,在酸性介质中用二安替比林甲烷分光光度法测定氯化镁中钛的含量,给出了合理的实验条件.     

南水北调中线陕西水源区污染源排放时空变化特征

基于2008—2012年污染源环境统计数据,采用Spearman秩相关系数法等分析南水北调中线陕西水源区污废水及污染物年排放总量变化趋势,借助ArcGIS空间分析功能表征水源区污染源排放的空间分布特征。结果表明:2008—2012年水源区污废水和NH_3-N年排放总量呈显著上升趋势,COD、As、Pb、Cd、Cr和Hg年排放总量呈抛物线型变化,总体上COD、Pb、Cd年排放总量增加,As、Cr和Hg年排放总量降低。水源区污废水及污染物排放量空间差异明显,污废水、COD和NH_3-N排放涉及流域所有区县,其排放量从干流到流域边缘呈现较明显的梯度变化,即位于流域中心或地级市行政中心的区县排放量明显高于位于流域边缘的区县;As、Pb、Cd、Cr和Hg排放量呈现明显的区域分布,主要分布在勉县等8个区县。     

水温分层对香溪河库湾浮游植物功能群季节演替的影响

三峡水库水环境问题近年来引起社会广泛关注，以浮游植物功能群为基础，通过对2010年1~12月香溪河库湾水温、浮游植物等进行跟踪监测，探究支流库湾浮游植物群落结构演替趋势及其影响因子。结果表明：香溪河库湾2010年共出现18个浮游植物功能群，其中B、X1、P、Y、X2、D、LO、J、MP、G是代表性功能群；水温分层的季节性发育和消失是浮游植物群落结构演替的主要影响因素；冬季以耐受水温及光照限制的CS/S策略藻种为主；春季弱分层时，CR/R策略藻种适宜生长；夏季汛期时，呈现CR/R/C/CS多种策略藻种混生格局，强分层时，适宜稳定生境的S型策略藻种占据优势；秋季分层被打破，群落结构演替为耐受频繁波动环境的R型群落格局占优势     

大气颗粒物手工比对监测体系滤膜称量质控技术探讨

健全大气颗粒物手工比对监测体系是"十三五"环境空气自动监测质量管理的一项重点任务,其中颗粒物滤膜的称量直接影响手工监测数据质量。研究调研了国内各级环保部门所属环境监测机构颗粒物滤膜称量工作情况,结合国内外方法标准、技术规范等,重点探讨了称量实验室环境、称量设备、称量影响因素等滤膜称量质控要点,并针对环境管理与监测需求对大气颗粒物手工比对监测滤膜称量质控提出建议。     

Concentrations,atmospheric partitioning,and air–water/soil surface exchange of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofuran along the upper reaches of the Haihe River basin,North China

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofuran (PCDD/PCDF) were overall measured and compared in ambient air, water, soils, and sediments along the upper reaches of the Haihe River of North China, so as to evaluate their concentrations, profiles, and to understand the processes of gas–particle partitioning and air–water/soil exchange. The following results were obtained: (1) The average concentrations (toxic equivalents, TEQs) of 2,3,7,8-PCDD/PCDF in air, water, sediment, and soil samples were 4,855 fg/m³, 9.5 pg/L, 99.2 pg/g dry weight (dw), and 56.4 pg/g (203 fg TEQ/m³, 0.46 pg TEQ/L, 2.2 pg TEQ/g dw, and 1.3 pg TEQ/g, respectively), respectively. (2) Although OCDF, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF, OCDD, and 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD were the dominant congeners among four environmental sinks, obvious discrepancies of these congener and homologue patterns of PCDD/PCDF were observed still. (3) Significant linear correlations for PCDD/PCDF were observed between the gas–particle partition coefficient (K _p) and the subcooled liquid vapor pressure (P _L ⁰) and octanol–air partition coefficient (K _oa). (4) Fugacity fraction values of air–water exchange indicated that most of PCDD/PCDF homologues were dominated by net volatilization from water into air. The low-chlorinated PCDD/PCDF (tetra- to hexa-) presented a strong net volatilization from the soil into air, while high-chlorinated PCDD/PCDF (hepta- to octa-) were mainly close to equilibrium for air–soil exchange.     

脉冲袋式除尘器技术优化及其效应

本文探讨了传统脉冲袋式除尘器技术优化问题,提出了除尘器大灰斗、长滤袋、跳跃式清灰等技术优化措施;工程应用表明,技术优化可带来节能、减少投资、节约占地、降低运行费用等积极效果,可为袋式除尘器设计和应用提供借鉴。     

Validation of temporal and spatial consistency of facility- and speed-specific vehicle-specific power distributions for emission estimation: A case study in Beijing,China

Vehicle-specific power (VSP) has been found to be highly correlated with vehicle emissions. It is used in many studies on emission modeling such as the MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator) model. The existing studies develop specific VSP distributions (or OpMode distribution in MOVES) for different road types and various average speeds to represent the vehicle operating modes on road. However, it is still not clear if the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions are consistent temporally and spatially. For instance, is it necessary to update periodically the database of the VSP distributions in the emission model? Are the VSP distributions developed in the city central business district (CBD) area applicable to its suburb area? In this context, this study examined the temporal and spatial consistency of the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions in Beijing. The VSP distributions in different years and in different areas are developed, based on real-world vehicle activity data. The root mean square error (RMSE) is employed to quantify the difference between the VSP distributions. The maximum differences of the VSP distributions between different years and between different areas are approximately 20% of that between different road types. The analysis of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission factor indicates that the temporal and spatial differences of the VSP distributions have no significant impact on vehicle emission estimation, with relative error of less than 3%.

Implications: The temporal and spatial differences have no significant impact on the development of the facility- and speed-specific VSP distributions for the vehicle emission estimation. The database of the specific VSP distributions in the VSP-based emission models can maintain in terms of time. Thus, it is unnecessary to update the database regularly, and it is reliable to use the history vehicle activity data to forecast the emissions in the future. In one city, the areas with less data can still develop accurate VSP distributions based on better data from other areas.