REAL-TIME SNOW SIMULATION MODEL FOR THE MONONGAHELA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pittsburgh District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is responsible for operating two multipurpose reservoirs in the 7384 square mile (19198 square kilometer) Monongahela Basin. A third reservoir, presently under construction, will soon be operating. The real-time forecasting of runoff for operational purposes requires simulation of snow accumulation and snowmelt throughout the Basin during the winter season. This article describes capabilities of SNOSIM, a model being developed for performing such simulation. The application of this model as part of a comprehensive system of water control software, and some initial simulation results are presented.     

Collective action and the traditional village

This article considers the dispute between moral economy and rational peasant theories of agrarian societies in application to problems of collective action. The moral-economy theory holds that traditional peasant society is organized cooperatively through shared moral values and communal institutions; while the rational-peasant theory maintains that peasant society shows the mark of rational individual calculation, leading to free-rider problems that undermine successful collective action. This article offers an abstract model of a traditional village and assesses the applicability of recent qualifications of the collective action argument to this model. It will emerge that the social characteristics of the traditional village embody features that facilitate collective action by rational peasants.     

NONPARAMETRIC TESTS FOR TREND DETECTION IN WATER QUALITY TIME SERIES1

ABSTRACT: A review of nonparametric tests for trend leads to the conclusion that Mann-Whitney, Spearman, and Kendall tests are the best choice for trend detection in water quality time series. Recently these tests have been adapted to account for dependence and seasonality in such series (Lettenmaier, 1976; Hirsch, et al., 1972; Hirsch and Slack, 1984). For monotonic trends, a procedure allowing to select the pertinent tests considering the characteristics of time series is proposed and the practical limitations of the tests are also brought out. This procedure has been applied to identify the appropriate trend detection test for the time series of nine water quality parameters at Lake Laflamme (Québec). When a time series can be tested with the Mann-Whitney, Kendall, Spearman, or Lettenmaier (1976) test, the number of observations required to detect trends of a given magnitude, for selected significance and power levels can be calculated with the power function of the t test. When the test proposed by Hirsch, et al. (1984), Hirsch and Slack (1984), or Farrell (1980) need to be used, the number of observations can only be estimated approximately from the results of empirical power studies.     

Configuration of a functional department: A study of contextual and structural variables

This study investigates whether departments performing the same functions in different firms incur similar changes in structural configuration in response to industry-wide stimuli. Based on the proposition that the context of functional departments is similar across firms, changes in differentiation, integration, and perspective are hypothesized. Managers' perceptions of the validity of a series of statements to conditions five to 10 years ago and to present conditions are contrasted and show statistically significant shifts in these structural configurations. This change is confirmed by the analysis of responses of other managers in different departments within the same firms. Correlation analysis shows significant agreement among alternative measures of the same aspects of structure, and significant comovement among different structural dimensions. The later result supports the quantum theory of organizations.     

Exit and voice: A test of hypotheses based on fight/flight responses to job stress

Hypotheses were developed based on a coping model that views political behaviour (voice) as a fight response and turnover (exit) as a flight response to job stress. Data were collected from a group of professional, public employees and turnover dates were obtained for the group 13 months after completion of questionnaires. Multiple regression analysis was employed to test hypotheses. Stressors of interest were person-environment fit (P-E fit), role conflict (RC), and role ambiguity (RA). Psychological strains (job dissatisfaction and lowered commitment) were hypothesized to mediate the stressor-coping behaviour relationship. Turnover (TO) behaviour was the ultimate organizationally relevant outcome of coping behaviours. Job satisfaction and commitment were significantly related to intentions to leave. Political action was directly related to P-E fit and this relationship was not mediated by satisfaction or commitment. The relationship between RA and politics was moderated by commitment. Less committed employees tended to exhibit political behaviour in response to RA. Both coping responses (intentions to leave and political action) predicted significant portions of retention/turnover variance.     

Increasing seat belt use through PI&E and enforcement: The Thumbs Up campaign

Campaigns to increase seat belt use have been effective in controlled environments, in small geographic areas, in primary enforcement states, and when conducted in conjunction with the enactment of seat belt legislation. The Thumbs Up project was undertaken to determine if belt use could be facilitated in less advantageous conditions. A 3-month campaign to increase seat belt use was conducted in two sites, each consisting of two Florida counties. At its conclusion, the Thumbs Up project did not yield an overall increase in seat belt use across the two sites. However, observed seat belt use and the number of seat belt citations issued increased significantly in one site. The results are discussed in terms of the two components necessary for a successful campaign: public information and education, and enforcement. Further, recommendations for conducting successful community-based seat belt interventions are offered.     

PREDICTION OF CHLOROPHYLL A CONCENTRATIONS IN FLORIDA LAKES: THE IMPORTANCE OF PHOSPHORUS AND NITROGEN1

ABSTRACT: Models for the prediction of chlorophyll a concentrations were developed and tested using data on 223 Florida lakes. A statistical analysis showed that the best model was log (Chl a) =?2.49 + 0.269 log (TP) + 1.06 log (TN) or log (Chl a) =?2.49 + 1.06 log (TN/TP) + 1.33 log (TP) where Chl a is the chlorophyll a concentration (mg m^-3), TP is the total phosphorus concentration (mg m^-3) and TN is the total nitrogen concentration (mg m^-3). The model yields unbiased estimates of chlorophyll a concentrations over a wide range of lake types and has a 95 percent confidence interval of 29–319 percent of the calculated chlorophyll a concentrations. Other models, especially the published Dillon-Rigler and Jones-Bachmann phosphorus-chlorophyll models, are less precise when applied to Florida lakes. The data support the hypothesis that nitrogen is an important limiting nutrient in hypereutrophic lakes.     

ADJUSTMENT OF STREAM CHANNEL CAPACITY FOLLOWING DAM CLOSURE,YEGUA CREEK,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: In Yegua Creek, a principal tributary of the Brazos River in Texas, surveys of a 19 km channel reach downstream of Somerville Dam show that channel capacity decreased by an average of 65 percent in a 34 year period following dam closure. The decrease corresponds with an approximately 85 percent reduction in annual flood peaks. Channel depth has changed the most, decreasing by an average of 61 percent. Channel width remained stable with an average decrease of only 9 percent, reflecting cohesive bank materials along with the growth of riparian vegetation resulting from increased low flows during dry summer months. Although large changes in stream channel geometry are not uncommon downstream of dams, such pronounced reductions in channel capacity could have long‐term implications for sediment delivery through the system.     

DETERMINATION OF BEST TIMING FOR POULTRY WASTE DISPOSAL: A MODELING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: Confined production of poultry results in significant volumes of waste material which are typically disposed of by land application. Concerns over the potential environmental impacts of poultry waste disposal have resulted in ongoing efforts to develop management practices which maintain high quality of water downstream of disposal areas. The timing of application to minimize waste constituent losses is a management practice with the potential to ensure high quality of streams, rivers, and lakes downstream of receiving areas. This paper describes the development and application of a method to identify which time of year is best, from the standpoint of surface water quality, for land application of poultry waste. The procedure consists of using a mathematical simulation model to estimate average nitrogen and phosphorus losses resulting from different application timings, and then identifying the timings which minimize losses of these nutrients. The procedure was applied to three locations in Arkansas, and three different criteria for optimality of application timing were investigated. One criterion was oriented strictly to water quality, one was oriented only to crop production, and the last was a combination. The criteria resulted in different windows of time being identified as optimal. Optimal windows also varied with location of the receiving area. The results indicate that it is possible to land-apply poultry waste at times which both minimize nutrient losses and maximize crop yield.