Emissions Scenarios Database and Review of Scenarios

This paper reviews and analyzes more than 400 scenarios of global and regional greenhouse gas emissions and their main driving forces - population, economy, energy intensity, and carbon intensity - drawn from an extensive literature survey and summarized in a database. This new and growing database is available online, which makes summary statistics on these scenarios widely available. The scenarios in the database were collected from almost 200 different literature sources and other scenario evaluation activities. The ultimate objective of the database is to include all relevant global and regional emissions scenarios. This paper shows how the database can be utilized for the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions ranges across the scenarios in the literature and for the analysis of their main driving forces. The scenarios in the database display a large range of future greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the range can be attributed to the different methods and models used to formulate the scenarios, which include simple spreadsheet models, macroeconomic models and systems-engineering models. However, most of the range is due to differences in the input assumptions for the scenarios, in particular of the main scenario driving forces. Special emphasis is given to an analysis of medians and ranges of scenario distributions and the distributions of the main scenario driving forces in the database. The analysis shows that the range for projected population increase in the world, across the scenarios in the database, is the smallest of all main driving forces (about a factor of 3 in 2100). The range of economic growth, measured by the gross world product, and the range of primary energy consumption vary by a factor of 10 in 2100. Carbon intensity of energy, an indicator of the degree of technological change, varies by nearly two orders of magnitude in the year 2100. In addition, this paper presents the first attempt to analyze the relationships among the main scenario driving forces. Subsequent papers in this special issue give further analyses of the relationships among the main scenario driving forces and their other relevant characteristics.     

Verification of lipofuscin-based crustacean ageing: seasonality of lipofuscin accumulation in the stomatopod Oratosquilla oratoria in relation to water temperature

To verify the lipofuscin-based age estimation of crustaceans of unknown age from wild populations, we conducted a modal analysis of lipofuscin-concentration histograms in the stomatopod Oratosquilla oratoria seasonally collected from Tokyo Bay, Japan. Confocal microscopy and subsequent image analysis were used to quantify lipofuscin concentrations in the protocerebral bridge cell mass in the brain. Conventional body length frequency analysis failed to detect modes corresponding to ≥1 year old. In contrast, four or five distinct modes were found in the lipofuscin-concentration histograms, in which modes could be readily traced across months, suggesting that each mode represented an independent age group. The lipofuscin accumulation rate fluctuated seasonally: it was high in summer (June–July) and low in winter (December–January). Cross-correlation analysis showed that the highest instantaneous lipofuscin accumulation rate was achieved in early summer before maximum bottom temperatures were reached and when the temperature was increasing most rapidly. Our findings support the usefulness of lipofuscin concentration analysis in age estimation in wild crustacean populations.     

Starvation-induced barotolerance as a survival mechanism of a psychrophilic marine vibrio in the waters of the Antarctic convergence

Ant-300, a psychrophilic marine vibrio isolated from the Antarctic convergence, was tested for survival under conditions simulating those expected in situ for this organism. In particular, the organism's response to increased hydrostatic pressure was examined. Under a hydrostatic pressure of 250 atm, the viability of Ant-300 was reduced over 755 in growth media and under starvation conditions after 3 and 2 days, respectively. However, if the cells were starved for 1 week prior to pressurization of the starving suspension, 100% viability was maintained for over 6 weeks at the same pressure. After 10 weeks, the viability of a population of cells suspended for 1 week in natural or artificial seawater at a density of 10³ cells ml^–1 prior to pressurization of the suspension was 2 to 3 times greater than 1 atm controls. The data indicate that starvation conditions are a contributory if not the primary factor for the barotolerance of this organism in Antarctic waters. The data also indicate that under certain conditions, not unlike those expected in situ, hydrostatic pressure actually increases the survival of this organism under low nutrient conditions.Technical Paper No. 4907, Oregon Agricultural Experiment Station.     

Effects of dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on thyroid function in infants born in Japan – the second report from research on environmental health

Dioxins (PCDD + PCDF) and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) are potentially hazardous compounds and have structural similarity to thyroid hormones. Our research group on “Dioxins and PCB in Human Milk” was organized in 1997 and has been active for the past three years. We collected breast milk from 80 mothers living in Tokyo, Saitama, Ishikawa and Osaka Prefecture in Japan at 5, 30, 150, 300 postpartum days and measured PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs during 1998–1999. We added another 20 prefectures and cities during 1999–2000. Breast milk was obtained from 415 mothers at 30 postpartum days (breast-feeding group). Blood was taken from infants who were breast-fed at the age of 1 year for evaluation of thyroid and immune functions. Blood was also taken from 53 infants who were bottle-fed (bottle-feeding group) as a control. Serum T4, T3, FT4 and TSH levels in the breast-feeding (n=337) and bottle-feeding (n=53) groups were within normal ranges and were not significantly different between the two groups. Although there were a large geographic differences of dioxins and co-PCB content in breast milk, there were no differences in serum T4, T3, FT4, TSH levels and no significant correlation between the mean serum levels of TSH and TEQ in breast milk. There was a significant correlation between serum TSH at 1 year of age and that from blood on dried filter paper TSH at 5 days of age. We concluded that dioxin intake from breast milk in Japanese infants did not impair thyroid function. However, long-term effects remain to be evaluated.     

Genetic differences in the production of male neonates in Daphnia magna exposed to juvenile hormone analogs

We studied the susceptibility of three genetically different strains of the cyclical parthenogen Daphnia magna (Cladocera, Crustacea) in producing male neonates following exposure to juvenile hormone analogs. In experiment 1, NIES, Clone A, and Belgium A strains were exposed to the insect growth regulators (IGRs) fenoxycarb or epofenonane in a 21-day reproduction experiment. Fenoxycarb exposure decreased the total number of neonates and increased production of male neonates in a concentration-dependent manner in the NIES strain. The decrease in the total number of neonates was so great in Clone A following fenoxycarb exposure that male neonates were not observed, even at the highest concentration, where the total number of neonates was only 2% of the control. In the Belgium A strain, male neonates were observed at a rate of about 20% following exposure to the highest fenoxycarb concentration, but the total number observed was small. Epofenonane did not decrease reproduction in the NIES and Belgium A strains as dramatically as did fenoxycarb, but the neonatal sex ratio changed in a concentration-dependent manner. Although the ratio of males was as low as about 10%, induction of male neonates was also observed in Clone A following epofenonane exposure. In experiment 2, gravid females were exposed to high concentrations (5 or 10 microg/l) of fenoxycarb or pyriproxyfen for 12h. These treatments induced the production of male neonates in all strains, with a small decrease in the total number of neonates. Although induction of male neonates by juvenile hormones and their analogs was universal among genetically different strains, care is needed in interpreting the results of the 21-day reproduction tests, because decreased numbers of neonates at higher concentrations could obscure the presence of male neonates.     

Salinity and nutrient effects on the induction of the galactose permease system in a psychrophilic marine vibrio

An Antarctic psychrophilic marine Vibrio species was isolated having the inducible ability to accumulate nonmetabolizable thiomethyl-14C--galactopyranoside (14C-TMG) through a galactose permease system. Induction of 14C-TMG uptake was found to have a salinity requirement which was higher than that required for uptake. At the optimum salinity, galactose and fucose were the primary inducers. Lactose produced a comparable induction but only at higher concentrations, whereas glucose did not cause induction. The initial rate of 14C-TMG uptake exhibited saturation kinetics with an apparent Km value of 4.8 x 10^–6M. An amino acid, in addition to the inducer, was required for induction which could not be replaced by glycerol or galactose. Evidence is presented which indicates that the uptake of 14C-TMG is energy-dependent and that nutrient availability is more important than salinity for induction and uptake under conditions which would normally be found in the oceanic environment.Technical Paper No. 4911, Oregon Agricultural Experiment Station.     

PCDDs and PCDFs in vehicle exhaust particles in Japan.

Vehicle exhaust particles from gasoline and diesel engine cars were analyzed for PCDDs and PCDFs. The congener patterns of PCDDs and PCDFs in exhaust particles were different between gasoline and diesel engine cars. Suspended particulate matter from electrostatic precipitator connected to a highway tunnel was also analyzed for PCDDs and PCDFs. The congener pattern of suspended particular matter was different from both of gasoline and diesel engine cars. Total amounts of PCDDs/PCDFs sum concentrations in gasoline, diesel and suspended particulate matter were 0.21, 0.87 and 26.0 ng/g, respectively. The I-TEQs levels in gasoline, diesel and suspended particulate matter were 4.2, 11 and 242 pg/g, respectively.     

Very high concentrations of DDE and toxaphene residues in crocodiles from the Ord River, Western Australia: an investigation into possible endocrine disruption

Organochlorine pesticide concentrations, particularly those of the DDT family and of toxaphene, were measured by gas chromatography in samples of liver and body fat taken from Australian freshwater crocodiles Crocodylus johnstoni at three locations along the Ord River in Western Australia. The three sampling sites were the irrigation area, downstream of the irrigation area, and well upstream of the irrigation area; the last site serving as the control. DDT and toxaphene were applied in large and known quantities to cotton grown in the Ord Irrigation Area from 1964 to 1974. Thus the residues in the crocodile tissues are representative of the situation almost thirty years after the use of DDT and toxaphene ceased in the area. Very high concentrations of p,p'-DDE and toxaphene were found in the lipid-rich tissues that were examined. Livers and body fat from estuarine crocodiles Crocodylus porosus from the downstream site were also analysed. As p,p'-DDE and toxaphene are both known to be disruptive of endocrine systems, a range of blood parameters, including estradiol and testesterone concentrations, were also measured for all the animals studied. The ovaries and testes of the freshwater crocodiles were also examined histologically. There were no obvious effects on blood chemistry or gonad histology of the large burden of pesticides and their metabolites carried by exposed animals, although the limited number of samples and the variability of the breeding state of the animals examined may have masked possible effects. The isolation of the area, the accurately known applications of DDT and toxaphene, and the simplicity of the drainage system make the lower Ord River a unique natural laboratory for studying the long term breakdown and effects of pesticides applied in a tropical environment.     

Alkaline hydrolysis of photovoltaic backsheet containing PET and PVDF for the recycling of PVDF

Recovering fluorine from end-of-life products is crucial for the sustainable production and consumption of fluorine-containing compounds because fluorspar, an important natural resource for fluorine, is currently at a supply risk. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of chemically recycling a fluorine-containing photovoltaic (PV) backsheet for fluoropolymer recycling. Herein, a PV backsheet consisting of laminated polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) was treated with different concentrations of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) to hydrolyze the PET layer to water-soluble sodium terephthalate (Na₂TP) and to separate pure PVDF layer as a solid material. Optimized alkaline conditions (up to 10 M NaOH at 100 °C for 2 h) were determined, under which 87% of the PET layer could be decomposed without any significant deterioration of the PVDF layer. The hydrolysis kinetics of PET layer in NaOH could be explained by the modified shrinking-core model. Considering that the mass of end-of-life PV panels in Japan is estimated to increase to approximately 280,000 tons per year by 2036, PV backsheets are attractive candidates for fluoropolymer recycling, which can be effectively achieved using chemical recycling approach demonstrated in this study.