The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.     

Combining mapped and statistical data in forest ecological inventory and monitoring – supplementing an existing system

A forest ecological inventory and monitoring system combining information derived from maps and samples is proposed based on ecosystem regions (Bailey, 1994). The system extends the design of the USDA Forest Service Region 6 Inventory and Monitoring System (R6IMS) in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The key uses of the information are briefly discussed and expected results are illustrated with examples. The system is flexible, allowing regions based on ecological considerations to be modified. Sampling intensities that are affordable are likely to be insufficient to provide meaningful estimates for key parameters relating to rare and endangered species, watersheds, and other ecological units. Methods are proposed for collecting additional information in follow-up surveys and combining it with relevant information obtained in R6IMS. Near-continuous information on weather and possible pollution variables recorded by instruments at sampling sites is needed to develop meaningful models to understand what is happening in the ecoregions. R6IMS and the proposed additions constitute a dynamic system which will be modified further as data are analyzed.     

Using variance components to estimate power in a hierarchically nested sampling design

We used variance components to assess allocation of sampling effort in a hierarchically nested sampling design for ongoing monitoring of early life history stages of the federally endangered Devils Hole pupfish (DHP) (Cyprinodon diabolis). Sampling design for larval DHP included surveys (5 days each spring 2007–2009), events, and plots. Each survey was comprised of three counting events, where DHP larvae on nine plots were counted plot by plot. Statistical analysis of larval abundance included three components: (1) evaluation of power from various sample size combinations, (2) comparison of power in fixed and random plot designs, and (3) assessment of yearly differences in the power of the survey. Results indicated that increasing the sample size at the lowest level of sampling represented the most realistic option to increase the survey’s power, fixed plot designs had greater power than random plot designs, and the power of the larval survey varied by year. This study provides an example of how monitoring efforts may benefit from coupling variance components estimation with power analysis to assess sampling design.     

Calibration and validation of a regionally and seasonally stratified macroinvertebrate index for West Virginia wadeable streams

Multimetric indices (MMIs) are routinely used by federal, state, and tribal entities to assess the quality of aquatic resources. Because of their diversity, abundance, ubiquity, and sensitivity to environmental stress, benthic macroinvertebrates are well suited for MMIs. West Virginia has used a statewide family-level stream condition index (WVSCI) since 2002. We describe the development, validation, and application of a geographically- and seasonally partitioned genus-level index of most probable stream status (GLIMPSS) for West Virginia wadeable streams. Natural classification strata were evaluated with reference site communities using mean similarity analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination. Forty-one metrics spanning six ecological categories (richness, composition, tolerance, dominance, trophic groups, and habits) were evaluated for sensitivity, responsiveness, redundancy, range and variability across seasonal (spring and summer) and regional (mountains and plateau) strata. Through a step-wise metric selection process, 8–10 metrics were aggregated to comprise four stratum-specific GLIMPSS models (mountain/plateau and spring/summer). A comparison of GLIMPSS with WVSCI exhibited marked improvements where GLIMPSS detecting greater stream impacts. A variation of the GLIMPSS, which differs only in the family-level taxonomic identification of Chironomidae (GLIMPSS (CF)), was comparable to the full GLIMPSS. These MMIs are robust yet practical tools for evaluating impacts to water quality, instream and riparian habitat, and aquatic wildlife in wadeable riffle-run streams based on sensitivity, responsiveness, precision, and independent validation. These models may be used effectively to detect degradation of the naturally occurring benthic community, assess causes of biological degradation, and plan and evaluate remediation of damaged stream ecosystems.     

A laboratory study of predation by Aurelia aurita on larval herring (Clupea harengus): Experimental observations compared with model predictions

Predation by the medusa Aurelia aurita L. on early first-feeding stage larvae of the herring clupea harengus L. was studied in the laboratory. The medusae were captured in Loch Etive, Scotland. Herring larvae were reared from the extificially fertilized eggs of spawning Clyde herring caught in March, 1982. Swimming speeds, volume searched”, capture efficiency and predation rates increased as medusa size increased. Predation rates on fish larvae increased with prey density, but appeared to approach a maximum at high prey densities; in 1 h experiments, a maximum rate of predation of 6.64 larvae h^-1 was estimated by fitting an Ivlev function. A model to predict predation rates was constructed from swimming speeds, sizes and densities of medusae and larvae, and capture efficiency. The rates of predation predicted from the model fell within the range of experimental data, but tended to underestimate rates and did not account for saturation of medusae. Swimming patterns of medusae changed after prey capture: (a) before capture, encounter rates were low and medusae were relatively less active; (b) after capture of 1 larva, encounter rates doubled, with the stimulated medusae exhibiting increased activity and an aftered “searching” path; and (c) after capture of many larvae, swimming speeds and encounter rates of medusae decreased.     

Timing of hatching inAmmodytes marinus from Shetland waters and its significance to early growth and survivorship

The significance of hatch date for the growth and survival of the sandeel,Ammodytes marinus, was investigated using otolith microstructure. Hatch dates of 2 to 6 mo-old juvenileA. marinus caught near Shetland were compared between 1990 and 1992, during which period year-class strength varied by more than an order of magnitude. The hatch-date distribution of juveniles in the 1992 year-class was compared with that estimated directly from the abundance of newly emerged larvae on the spawning grounds. The extent of larval hatching periods in 1990 and 1991 was also estimated from continuous plankton-recorder data. There were significant differences in hatching periods between all three years, hatching in 1990 and 1992 being markedly earlier than the long-term mean peak in hatching indicated from archival data. Most individuals from the 1991 year-class attained a larger size by July than those in other year-classes, despite hatching later. Variation in individual growth rates both within and between year-classes indicated that there was a seasonal cycle of growth opportunity in all years investigated. The study suggests that the degree of coupling between hatching and the onset of spring secondary production may be an important contributory factor to year-class variability in this species.     

Sampling design trade-offs in occupancy studies with imperfect detection: examples and software.

Researchers have used occupancy, or probability of occupancy, as a response or state variable in a variety of studies (e.g., habitat modeling), and occupancy is increasingly favored by numerous state, federal, and international agencies engaged in monitoring programs. Recent advances in estimation methods have emphasized that reliable inferences can be made from these types of studies if detection and occupancy probabilities are simultaneously estimated. The need for temporal replication at sampled sites to estimate detection probability creates a trade-off between spatial replication (number of sample sites distributed within the area of interest/inference) and temporal replication (number of repeated surveys at each site). Here, we discuss a suite of questions commonly encountered during the design phase of occupancy studies, and we describe software (program GENPRES) developed to allow investigators to easily explore design trade-offs focused on particularities of their study system and sampling limitations. We illustrate the utility of program GENPRES using an amphibian example from Greater Yellowstone National Park, U.S.A.     

Tributyltin contamination around an oil terminal in Sullom Voe (Shetland)

This report provides clear evidence of tributyltin (TBT) contamination of coastal waters close to an oil terminal handling large tankers. Dogwhelk populations from Sullom Voe, Shetland, have been examined for the development by females of certain male sexual characteristics (e.g. a penis and vas deferens). This condition, termed imposex, is a response to exposure to tributylin compounds, and can be quantified by use of the relative penis size index (RPSI). Dogwhelk populations throughout Sullom Voe were strongly affected by TBT (RPSI 34 to 81%), and up to 90% of the females in the oil terminal area were sterile. Queen scallops collected in the Voe contained enhanced concentrations of tin in adductor muscle and gonad tissue (0.02 to 0.23 mg kg(-1) wet weight), but it is considered unlikely that their growth and development is adversely affected. Tin was rarely detected in scallops, queens, or dogwhelks outside the Voe, although the development of a vas deferens in many of the female dogwhelks indicated a degree of contamination of the open waters of Yell Sound. TBT was detectable (2 ng litre(-1) as tin) in only two sea water samples taken from the terminal area.     

Changes in soil organic carbon storage under grassland as evidenced by changes in sulphur input-output budgets

Information about temporal changes in soil organic carbon (C) pools may be obtained indirectly from changes in input-output budgets of organically combined nutrients such as sulphur (S). Sulphur budgets were therefore evaluated for Northern Ireland (NI) for the period 1940-1990, inclusive. These budgets indicated that the land or soil had acted first as a sink but then as a source for S, and that reserves of soil S built up between 1940 and 1965 were totally depleted by the mid-1980s. Pooled data from six long-term soil-monitoring sites on undisturbed grassland suggested that negative S budgets from the late-1970s onwards had been due to the net mineralization of soil organic matter and thus were indicative of net losses of organic C from surface soil horizons. There was some evidence that the decline in rainfall and fertiliser S inputs from the mid-1960s may have precipitated the breakdown of soil organic matter.     

Real-world vehicle emissions: a summary of the tenth coordinating research council on-road vehicle emissions workshop

The Coordinating Research Council (CRC) held its tenth workshop in March 2000, focusing on results from the most recent real-world vehicle emissions research. In this paper, we summarize the presentations from researchers who are engaged in improving our understanding of the contribution of mobile sources to emission inventories. Participants in the workshop discussed efforts to improve mobile source emission models and emission inventories, results from gas- and particle-phase emissions studies from spark-ignition and diesel-powered vehicles, new methods for measuring mobile source emissions, improvements in vehicle emission control systems (ECSs), and evaluation of motor vehicle inspection/maintenance (I/M) programs, as well as topics for future research.