Comparing canopy leaf temperature of three Central European tree species based on simultaneous confidence bands for penalized splines

Temperature is an important physical factor that is known to strongly affect biodiversity as well as ecosystems and their functioning. However, research in this area is still relatively limited; this may also be attributed to the multitude of influencing factors and the complexity of the statistics involved. This study analyzes the differences between the surface temperature of three Central European broadleaf tree species. A better understanding of these differences may help to elucidate the role of microclimate in biodiversity. We consider a time series of high-resolution thermal images taken from a meteorological observation tower and calculate mean canopy leaf temperatures for beech, ash and maple (Fagus silvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Acer pseudoplatanus). In a first step, comparable image areas are extracted from the thermal image sections of the crown of each tree species avoiding shadow areas, branches, etc. We used an automatic segmentation technique, the Otsu thresholding. Extracted canopy leaf temperature values were then processed and the resulting temperature profiles estimated by O’Sullivan penalized splines. For comparing the differences in canopy leaf temperature over time, we propose the construction of simultaneous confidence bands. The analyses show that there are significant—though small—differences in canopy surface temperature between the three tree species.     

Green Toxicology: a strategy for sustainable chemical and material development

Green Toxicology refers to the application of predictive toxicology in the sustainable development and production of new less harmful materials and chemicals, subsequently reducing waste and exposure. Built upon the foundation of “Green Chemistry” and “Green Engineering”, “Green Toxicology” aims to shape future manufacturing processes and safe synthesis of chemicals in terms of environmental and human health impacts. Being an integral part of Green Chemistry, the principles of Green Toxicology amplify the role of health-related aspects for the benefit of consumers and the environment, in addition to being economical for manufacturing companies. Due to the costly development and preparation of new materials and chemicals for market entry, it is no longer practical to ignore the safety and environmental status of new products during product development stages. However, this is only possible if toxicologists and chemists work together early on in the development of materials and chemicals to utilize safe design strategies and innovative in vitro and in silico tools. This paper discusses some of the most relevant aspects, advances and limitations of the emergence of Green Toxicology from the perspective of different industry and research groups. The integration of new testing methods and strategies in product development, testing and regulation stages are presented with examples of the application of in silico, omics and in vitro methods. Other tools for Green Toxicology, including the reduction of animal testing, alternative test methods, and read-across approaches are also discussed.     

The progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science

Interdisciplinarity is needed to gain knowledge of the ecology of invasive species and invaded ecosystems, and of the human dimensions of biological invasions. We combine a quantitative literature review with a qualitative historical narrative to document the progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science since 1950. Our review shows that 92.4% of interdisciplinary publications (out of 9192) focus on ecological questions, 4.4% on social ones, and 3.2% on social–ecological ones. The emergence of invasion science out of ecology might explain why interdisciplinarity has remained mostly within the natural sciences. Nevertheless, invasion science is attracting social–ecological collaborations to understand ecological challenges, and to develop novel approaches to address new ideas, concepts, and invasion-related questions between scholars and stakeholders. We discuss ways to reframe invasion science as a field centred on interlinked social–ecological dynamics to bring science, governance and society together in a common effort to deal with invasions.     

Analysis of perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) and other perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in the River Po watershed in N-Italy

C7-C11 perfluorinated carboxylates (PFACs) and perfluorooctansulfonate (PFOS) were analysed in selected stretches of the River Po and its major tributaries. Analyses were performed by solid-phase extraction (SPE) with Oasis HLB cartridges and methanol elution followed by LC-MS-MS detection using 13C-labelled internal standards. High concentration levels ( approximately 1.3 microg l(-1)) of perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) were detected in the Tánaro River close to the city Alessandria. After this tributary, levels between 60 and 337 ng l(-1) were measured in the Po River on several occasions. The PFOA concentration close to the river mouth in Ferrara was between 60 and 174 ng l(-1). Using the river discharge flow data in m3 s(-1) at this point (average approximately 920 m3 s(-1) for the year 2006), a mass load of approximately 0.3 kg PFOA per hour or approximately 2.6 tons per year discharged in the Adriatic Sea has been calculated. PFOS concentration levels in the Po River at Ferrara were approximately 10 ng l(-1).     

Numerical Modeling of a Potential Geological CO 2 Sequestration Site at Minden (Germany)

We study opportunities for CO₂ sequestration in geological formations of the state North Rhine Westphalia in Germany. Simulations are performed for evaluating a potential site within the Bunter sandstone formation near the town of Minden in a depth?of around 3,000 m using the numerical simulator TOUGHREACT. Our focus is on three CO₂ storage mechanisms: (1) hydrodynamic trapping, (2) dissolution trapping, and (3) mineral trapping. The results show that due to buoyancy the injected CO₂ phase initially migrates towards the top of the reservoir and is hydrodynamically trapped beneath the confining layer of the cap rock. Then, the CO₂ spreads laterally and dissolves partially in the formation water. The dissolution of CO₂ results in an increase of the density of the brine causing a downward migration until it settles after 10,000 years at the bottom of the reservoir. The simulations indicate that after 10,000 years, 15% (17 Mt) from a total of 114 Mt injected CO₂ are trapped hydrodynamically, 20% (23 Mt) are trapped by dissolution, and 65% (74 Mt) are fixed in newly formed carbonates such as dawsonite, ankerite, and siderite. Within our study pressure increases near the injection well by a factor of 1.1 which is lower than the upper limit usually accepted in gas storage operations. The mineral reactions cause a net decrease of porosity and in turn a decrease of permeability down to 9% of the initial value in parts of the reservoir.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The use of multiple tracers for tracking wastewater discharges in freshwater systems

The assessment of potential impacts of wastewater effluent discharges in freshwater systems requires an understanding of the likely degrees of dilution and potential zones of influence. In this study, four tracers commonly present in wastewater effluents were monitored to compare their relative effectiveness in determining areas in freshwater systems that are likely to be impacted by effluent discharges. The four tracers selected were the human pharmaceutical carbamazepine, anthropogenic gadolinium, fluorescent-dissolved organic matter (fDOM), and electrical conductivity (EC). The four tracers were monitored longitudinally in two distinct freshwater systems receiving wastewater effluents, where one site had a high level of effluent dilution (effluent <1 % of total flow) and the other site had a low level of effluent dilution (effluent ～50 % of total flow). At both sites, the selected tracers exhibited a similar pattern of response intensity downstream of discharge points relative to undiluted wastewater effluent, although a number of anomalies were noted between the tracers. Both EC and fDOM are non-specific to human influences, and both had a high background response, relative to the highly sensitive carbamazepine and anthropogenic gadolinium responses, although the ease of measuring EC and fDOM would make them more adaptable in highly variable systems. However, the greater sensitivity and selectivity of carbamazepine and gadolinium would make their combination with EC and fDOM as tracers of wastewater effluent discharges highly desirable to overcome potential limitations of individual tracers.     

Trends in land use and land cover change in the protected and communal areas of the Zambezi Region,Namibia

Land management decisions have extensively modified land use and land cover in the Zambezi Region. These decisions are influenced by land tenure classifications, legislation, and livelihoods. Land use and land cover change is an important indicator for quantifying the effectiveness of different land management strategies. However, there has been no evidence on whether protected or communal land tenure is more affected by land use and land cover changes in southern Africa and particularly Namibia. Our study attempted to fill this gap by analyzing the relationship between land use and land cover change and land tenure regimes stratified according to protected and communal area in the Zambezi Region. Multi-temporal Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery were used to determine the temporal dynamics of land use and land cover change from 1984 to 2010. The landscape showed distinctive modifications over the study period; broad trends include the increase in forest land after 1991. However, changes were not uniform across the study areas. Two landscape development stages were deduced: (1) 1984–1991 represented high deforestation and gradual increase in shrub land; (2) 1991–2000 and 2000–2010 represented lower deforestation and slower agropastoral expansion. The results further show clear patterns of the dynamics, magnitude, and direction of land use and land cover change by tenure regime. The study concluded that land tenure has a direct impact on land use and land cover, since it may restrict some activities carried out on the land in the Zambezi Region.     

Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: assessing the future of the Baltic

We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.