TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

Who changes consumption following residential energy evaluations? local programs need all income groups to achieve kyoto targets

The government of Canada ratified the Kyoto Protocol on 17 December 2002, but over 100 Canadian municipalities had joined the International Council for Local Environmental Intitatives' (ICLEI) Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign up to a decade earlier. A low-cost home energy rating system (HERS) evaluation and individualized energy plan was provided to 420 households in Kitchener, Ontario, from September 2000 to August 2001. To assess the impact of the energy efficiency program, natural gas consumption in the year prior to the evaluation was compared with that in the year following. Overall, a 5% reduction was achieved, but individual responses varied widely. Situational and psychological factors were evaluated for three groups of households: the conservers, the consumers and the steady middle group. Conservers (30% of households) had higher initial energy consumption levels and achieved two-thirds of the potential savings identified by the energy evaluation. Consumers (12% of households) had higher ownership rates of high-efficiency furnaces and water heaters and demonstrated the rebound effect of increased demand for energy services following the evaluation. Low-income groups were the most likely to behave as conservers (42%) while high-income groups were the least likely to be conservers (13%) and the most likely to be consumers. Local programs need to be inclusive of all income groups to increase participation and implementation rates by systematically reducing barriers (financial, knowledge, trust) or increasing incentives (financial, regulatory or social) if the desired goal (e.g. Kyoto target) is to be achieved.     

Non-native Species <Emphasis Type="Italic">DO</Emphasis> Threaten the Natural Environment!

Sagoff [Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 18 (2005), 215–236] argues, against growing empirical evidence, that major environmental impacts of non-native species are unproven. However, many such impacts, including extinctions of both island and continental species, have both been demonstrated and judged by the public to be harmful. Although more public attention has been focused on non-native animals than non-native plants, the latter more often cause ecosystem-wide impacts. Increased regulation of introduction of non-native species is, therefore, warranted, and, contra Sagoff’s assertions, invasion biologists have recently developed methods that greatly aid prediction of which introduced species will harm the environment and thus enable more efficient regulation. The fact that introduced species may increase local biodiversity in certain instances has not been shown to result in desired changes in ecosystem function. In other locales, they decrease biodiversity, as they do globally.     

Cattle feedlot soil moisture and manure content: I. Impacts on greenhouse gases, odor compounds, nitrogen losses, and dust

Beef cattle feedlots face serious environmental challenges associated with manure management, including greenhouse gas, odor, NH3, and dust emissions. Conditions affecting emissions are poorly characterized, but likely relate to the variability of feedlot surface moisture and manure contents, which affect microbial processes. Odor compounds, greenhouse gases, nitrogen losses, and dust potential were monitored at six moisture contents (0.11, 0.25, 0.43, 0.67, 1.00, and 1.50 g H2O g(-1) dry matter [DM]) in three artificial feedlot soil mixtures containing 50, 250, and 750 g manure kg(-1) total (manure + soil) DM over a two-week period. Moisture addition produced three microbial metabolisms: inactive, aerobic, and fermentative at low, moderate, and high moisture, respectively. Manure content acted to modulate the effect of moisture and enhanced some microbial processes. Greenhouse gas (CO2, N2O, and CH4) emissions were dynamic at moderate to high moisture. Malodorous volatile fatty acid (VFA) compounds did not accumulate in any treatments, but their persistence and volatility varied depending on pH and aerobic metabolism. Starch was the dominant substrate fueling both aerobic and fermentative metabolism. Nitrogen losses were observed in all metabolically active treatments; however, there was evidence for limited microbial nitrogen uptake. Finally, potential dust production was observed below defined moisture thresholds, which were related to manure content of the soil. Managing feedlot surface moisture within a narrow moisture range (0.2-0.4 g H2O g(-1) DM) and minimizing the accumulation of manure produced the optimum conditions that minimized the environmental impact from cattle feedlot production.     

Cattle feedlot soil moisture and manure content: II. Impact on Escherichia coli O157

The moisture and manure contents of soils at cattle feedlot surfaces vary spatiotemporally and likely are important factors in the persistence of Escherichia coli O157 in these soils. The impacts of water content (0.11-1.50 g H2O g(-1) dry feedlot surface material [FSM]) and manure level (5, 25, and 75% dry manure in dry FSM) on E. coli O157:H7 in feedlot soils were evaluated. Generally, E. coli O157:H7 numbers either persisted or increased at all but the lowest moisture levels examined. Manure content modulated the effect of water on E. coli growth; for example, at water content of 0.43 g H2O g(-1) dry FSM and 25% manure, E. coli O157:H7 increased by 2 log10 colony forming units (CFU) g(-1) dry FSM in 3 d, while at 0.43 g H2O g(-1) dry FSM and 75% manure, populations remained stable over 14 d. Escherichia coli and coliform populations responded similarly. In a second study, the impacts of cycling moisture levels and different drying rates on naturally occurring E. coli O157 in feedlot soils were examined. Low initial levels of E. coli O157 were reduced to below enumerable levels by 21 d, but indigenous E. coli populations persisted at >2.50 log10 CFU g(-1) dry FSM up to 133 d. We conclude that E. coli O157 can persist and may even grow in feedlot soils, over a wide range of water and manure contents. Further investigations are needed to determine if these variables can be manipulated to reduce this pathogen in cattle and the feedlot environment.     

“No fences make bad neighbors” but markets make better ones: cap-and-trade reduces cross-border SO2 in a natural experiment

The clean air interstate rule (CAIR) was a regional cap-and-trade program announced in 2005 which covered 27 eastern US states and sought to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. The rule was later vacated after a court found that the non-targeted design of the program did not comply with the Clean Air Act provision to regulate interstate air pollution. Using a custom air pollution dispersion model, I calculate the interstate SO₂ pollution from 493 coal-fired power plants across the United States between 1997 and 2020. In a difference-in-differences setup with plants not covered by CAIR in the control group, I estimate the treatment effect of the program on overall- and cross-border SO₂ emissions and find a 24% reduction in overall emissions and reduces the risk that a plant violates air quality standards across state borders by 2–4%. I report evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects where the reduction in overall emissions attributed to CAIR is lower among plants transporting SO₂ in excess of 1% of the National Air Quality Standards to another state.

     

Assessing effects of non-native crayfish on mosquito survival

Introductions of non-native predators often reduce biodiversity and affect natural predator–prey relationships and may increase the abundance of potential disease vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) indirectly through competition or predation cascades. The Santa Monica Mountains (California, U.S.A.), situated in a global biodiversity hotspot, is an area of conservation concern due to climate change, urbanization, and the introduction of non-native species. We examined the effect of non-native crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on an existing native predator, dragonfly nymphs (Aeshna sp.), and their mosquito larvae (Anopheles sp.) prey. We used laboratory experiments to compare the predation efficiency of both predators, separately and together, and field data on counts of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae sampled from 13 local streams. We predicted a lower predation efficiency of crayfish compared with native dragonfly nymphs and a reduced predation efficiency of dragonfly nymphs in the presence of crayfish. Dragonfly nymphs were an order of magnitude more efficient predators than crayfish, and dragonfly nymph predation efficiency was reduced in the presence of crayfish. Field count data showed that populations of dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae were strongly correlated with crayfish presence in streams, such that sites with crayfish tended to have fewer dragonfly nymphs and more mosquito larvae. Under natural conditions, it is likely that crayfish reduce the abundance of dragonfly nymphs and their predation efficiency and thereby, directly and indirectly, lead to higher mosquito populations and a loss of ecosystem services related to disease vector control.     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

Cautioning against overemphasis of normative constructs in conservation decision making

Questions around how to conserve nature are increasingly leading to dissonance in conservation planning and action. While science can assist in unraveling the nature of conservation challenges, conservation responses rely heavily on normative positions and constructs to order actions, aid interpretations, and provide motivation. However, problems can arise when norms are mistaken for science or when they stymy scientific rigor. To highlight these potential pitfalls, we used the ethics-based tool of argument analysis to assess a controversial conservation intervention, the Pelorus Island Goat Control Program. The program proponents' argument for restorative justice was unsound because it relied on weak logical construction overly entrenched in normative assumptions. Overreliance on normative constructs, particularly the invocation of tragedy, creates a sense of urgency that can subvert scientific and ethical integrity, obscure values and assumptions, and increase the propensity for flawed logic. This example demonstrates how the same constructs that drive biodiversity conservation can also drive poor decision making, spur public backlash, and justify poor animal welfare outcomes. To provide clarity, a decision-making flowchart we devised demonstrates how values, norms, and ethics influence one another. We recommend practitioners follow 3 key points to improve decision making: be aware of values, as well as normative constructs and ethical theories that those values inform; be mindful of overreliance on either normative constructs or ethics when deciding action is justified; and be logically sound and transparent when building justifications. We also recommend 5 key attributes that practitioners should be attentive to when making conservation decisions: clarity, transparency, scientific integrity, adaptiveness, and compassion. Greater attention to the role of norms in decision making will improve conservation outcomes and garner greater public support for actions.