Occurrence of potential bacterial pathogens in coastal areas of the Adriatic Sea

A monitoring program was carried out in bathing waters along the sea-coast of the Adriatic Sea. The investigation was aimedat obtaining a quali-quantitative picture of microorganisms ofanthropic origin and of a more strictly autochthonous origin and at verifying the existence of possible reciprocal correlations and combinations of relationship between them. Results showed that the concentrations of indicators of faecal contamination, whether within or over the values established by legislation, are not always related to the presence and density of microorganisms of environmental origin but the regression modelsused can help to describe how these latter microorganisms can bein relation to levels of the other parameters. The difficultyis evident of the predictability of health effects swimming-associated; for this reason more complex models that are currently used should be taken into account for minimising the risk for bathers.     

Associating Ecosystem Service Losses with Indicators of Toxicity in Habitat Equivalency Analysis

Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA) was developed as a tool to scale mitigation or restoration when habitat is contaminated by hazardous substances or has been otherwise harmed by anthropogenic activities. Applying HEA involves balancing reductions in habitat quality against gains from restoration actions, and quantifying changes in habitat quality in terms of ecological services. We propose a framework for developing ecological service definitions and measures that incorporate knowledge about the impacts of chemical contaminants on biota. We describe a general model for integrating multiple lines of evidence about the toxicity of hazardous substances to allow mapping of toxicological inputs to ecological service losses. We provide an example of how this framework might be used in a HEA that quantifies ecological services provided by estuarine sediments contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.     

Sketching sustainable land use in Europe by 2040: a multi-stakeholder participatory approach to elicit cross-sectoral visions

The continuously growing global demands on a finite land resource will require better strategic policies and management of trade-offs to avoid conflicts between different land-use sectors. Visions of the future can support strategic planning by stimulating dialogue, building a consensus on shared priorities and providing long-term targets. We present a novel approach to elicit stakeholder visions of future desired land use, which was applied with a broad range of experts to develop cross-sectoral visions in Europe. The approach is based on (i) combination of software tools and facilitation techniques to stimulate engagement and creativity; (ii) methodical selection of stakeholders; (iii) use of land attributes to deconstruct the multifaceted sectoral visions into land-use changes that can be clustered into few cross-sectoral visions, and (iv) a rigorous iterative process. Three cross-sectoral visions of sustainable land use in Europe in 2040 emerged from applying the approach in participatory workshops involving experts in nature conservation, recreation, agriculture, forestry, settlements, energy, and water. The three visions—Best Land in Europe, Regional Connected and Local Multifunctional—shared a wish to achieve a land use that is sustainable through multifunctionality, resource use efficiency, controlled urban growth, rural renewal and widespread nature. However, they differ on the scale at which land services are provided—EU-wide, regional or local—reflecting the land-sparing versus land-sharing debate. We discuss the usefulness of the approach, as well as the challenges posed and solutions offered by the visions to support strategic land-use planning.

     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges from 2000 to 2080 of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar under 3 climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 ha of forest cover for each species and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each scenario. We interviewed managers of projects to restore native forests and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species, we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species' ranges, the overlap between species' ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species' ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha); avoidance of forest degradation (i.e., loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha); avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha); and establishment of forest on nonforested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that although forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.     

Correction to: Status and trends of circumpolar peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations

While collating contributions and comments from 36 researchers, the coordinating authors accidentally omitted Dr. Suzanne Carrière from the list of contributing co-authors. Dr. Carrière’s data are described in Tables 1 and 3, Figure 2 and several places in the narrative. The new author list is thus updated in this article.     

反复等向加卸载路径下粉质黏土变形特性研究

黏土的变形特性与应力路径密切相关,直接影响到相关工程的安全性。针对三峡库岸某路基边坡粉质黏土,采用应力路径控制试验系统,开展了两组等向固结应力状态下反复多次的加卸载试验,揭示了土体的体积变形发展规律,发现再固结过程呈现为一条先平缓后变陡的曲线,说明前期固结压力范围内的再加载也会产生不可恢复的塑性变形,且变形速率随加卸载循环次数逐渐减小。最后,结合试验曲线特点,建立了土体再固结系数与加卸载次数及应力状态相关的数学模型,能够较好的模拟反复等向加卸载条件下土样的体变特征,且可预测土体经历更多次加卸载循环中的次固结过程,为土体的持续塑性变形分析和预测提供参考。     

Science–policy processes for transboundary water governance

In this policy perspective, we outline several conditions to support effective science–policy interaction, with a particular emphasis on improving water governance in transboundary basins. Key conditions include (1) recognizing that science is a crucial but bounded input into water resource decision-making processes; (2) establishing conditions for collaboration and shared commitment among actors; (3) understanding that social or group-learning processes linked to science–policy interaction are enhanced through greater collaboration; (4) accepting that the collaborative production of knowledge about hydrological issues and associated socioeconomic change and institutional responses is essential to build legitimate decision-making processes; and (5) engaging boundary organizations and informal networks of scientists, policy makers, and civil society. We elaborate on these conditions with a diverse set of international examples drawn from a synthesis of our collective experiences in assessing the opportunities and constraints (including the role of power relations) related to governance for water in transboundary settings.     

Are all experiments created equal? A framework for analysis of the learning potential of policy experiments in environmental governance

Environmental changes are increasing the need to understand complex cross-scale feedbacks in social–ecological systems. However, consistent conceptualisation of learning associated with environmental governance is lacking, and research mainly centres on individual variables. This paper identifies a typology of such learning, and theorises about configurations of variables. Focusing on experimentation as an intervention geared towards learning, it proposes a definition of policy experiment. A theoretical framework is presented, summarising a typology of experiments based on learning-related variables embedded in design choices, and reflected in institutional rule aggregations. The framework facilitates systematic analysis of real-world cases and testing of hypotheses on the effects of different types of experiment on learning. A case study demonstrates application of the framework. Results suggest future research paths that include attention to additional relevant variables. The findings have relevance for scholars interested in experimentation and learning, and environmental policy-makers considering experimentation to assess policy innovations.