Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Effects of two organophosphorus insecticides on some biochemical constituents in the nervous system and liver of rabbits

Male Baladi rabbits were acutely and sub-chronically intoxicated with cyanofenphos and profenophos. The levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, B-lipoproteins and total proteins were determined in the serum, brain, spinal cord and sciatic nerve of rabbits. Moreover, the activities of alkaline phosphatase, acid phosphatase and glutamic-pyruvic transaminase were determined in the liver of the animals. The whole studies revealed that the biochemical constituents were highly affected by the tested insecticides. Also, the liver function suffered from adverse effects of the tested insecticides.     

公民对全球环境变化的响应——以上海、香港地区为例

工业革命以来，全球环境发生了前所未有的变化，将可能给地球系统带来灾难性后果，究其原因主要是由于人类活动造成的。人的行为深受意识的影响和制约,环境意识对于环境问题的产生和解决至关重要。本文选取上海、香港两个地区来分析公民对环境的关注度、公民的环保意识、环保行为以及公民对政府环境工作的看法和评价，研究公民对全球环境变化反应的区域差异，为政府制定相关环境保护政策提供理论依据。调查结果显示，上海、香港两地公民在很多环境闷题上具有共识。但是。在对手环境状况好转的期待值、参与环境保护活动的积极性、对人为因素主导力量的认识、环境保护与日常生活的切实关系、为环境保护的支付意愿、对于环境教育内容的认可度等方面存在着一定的差异。     

Assessment of atmospheric metallic pollution in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil, employing Tillandsia usneoides L. as biomonitor

Tillandsia usneoides L. is an epiphytic bromeliad plant able to absorb water and nutrients directly from the air. For this reason this species was selected to carry out a monitoring study of air pollution in the metropolitan region of S?o Paulo, Brazil. Five consecutive transplantation experiments (8 weeks each) were performed in 10 sites of the city, submitted to different sources of air pollution (industrial, vehicular), using plants collected from an unpolluted area. After exposure, trace metals were analyzed in the plant by instrumental neutron activation analysis. Traffic-related elements such as Zn and Ba presented high concentrations in exposure sites near to heavy traffic avenues (cars, buses and trucks) and may be associated to vehicular sources. For Zn and Co the highest contents were related to industrial zones and can be associated to the presence of anthropogenic emission sources. The rare earth elements, Fe and Rb, probably have soil particles as main source.     

Preliminary assessment of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Scottish aquatic environment, including the Firth of Clyde

This paper presents preliminary data on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Scottish aquatic environment. Sediment and biota (fish liver, fish muscle and mussels) from a number of locations around Scotland were analysed for PBDEs with samples being from both remote and from potentially contaminated areas such as the former sewage sludge dump site at Garroch Head in the Clyde. PBDEs were measured in both cultivated, rope grown mussels and wild mussels collected from 5 sites around Scotland in 2006. Total PBDE concentrations (sum of tri- to hepta-BDEs) ranged from 相似文献   

Simplified determination of lipophilic metabolites of nonylphenol ethoxylates: method development and application in aqueous samples from Buenos Aires, Argentina

In the present work we have developed an analytical methodology for the determination of nonylphenol (NP) and nonylphenol mono- and di-ethoxylates (NP1EO and NP2EO) in water samples. The applicability of this methodology was proved by means of the analysis of environmentally relevant aqueous samples from Buenos Aires. This constitutes a starting point for a rigorous assessment of the incidence of NPnEO surfactants in Argentina, as only very few, qualitative or semi-quantitative data on the occurrence of these compounds in local systems were available up to this time. Enrichment of the analytes was carried out by solid-phase extraction on a C-18 sorbent, followed by elution with ethyl acetate. Normal-phase high performance liquid chromatography on an amino-silica column and fluorescence detection at excitation-emission wavelengths of 230-300 nm were employed for separation and quantification of the analytes. Confirmation of peak assignment in selected real samples was performed by off-line coupling HPLC with GC-MS analysis. A non-polar GC capillary column was used, and a characteristic peak pattern was obtained for the alkyl chain isomers of each ethoxylated homologue and NP. GC-MS analyses yielded in all cases purity levels higher than 80% for the HPLC collected fractions. The elevated concentrations found for the estrogenic metabolites of NPnEO are in accordance with an unrestricted use of this class of non-ionic surfactants in the country.     

Coat color polymorphism in populations of the northern mole vole in the Ural Region

Collections made in the course of long-term field studies on ecology of the northern mole vole Ellobius talpinus Pall. in the Ural Region and neighboring areas (more than 2000 individuals from 24 points of the species range) were used to analyze geographic variation in its coat color (color morphs). On the basis of long-term observations (1985–1999) on marked animals from a polymorphic population (Kurtamyshskii raion, Kurgan oblast), the life spans of males and females and the dependence of life span on population density and structure were estimated in animals of different color morphs. Each color morph of E. talpinus was shown to have specific features of the seasonal dynamics of age structure and migrations.     

Long term changes in atmospheric N and S throughfall deposition and effects on soil solution chemistry in a Scots pine forest in the Netherlands

In a Scots pine forest the throughfall deposition and the chemical composition of the soil solution was monitored since 1984. (Inter)national legislation measures led to a reduction of the deposition of nitrogen and sulphur. The deposition of sulphur has decreased by approximately 65%. The total mineral-nitrogen deposition has decreased by ca. 25%, which is mainly due to a reduction in ammonium-N deposition (−40%), since nitrate-N deposition has increased (+50%). The nitrogen concentration in the upper mineral soil solution at 10 cm depth has decreased, leading to an improved nutritional balance, which may result in improved tree vitality. In the drainage water at 90 cm depth the fluxes of NO₃⁻ and SO₄²⁻ have decreased, resulting in a reduced leeching of accompanying base cations, thus preserving nutrients in the ecosystem. It may take still several years, however, before this will meet the prerequisite of a sustainable ecosystem.     

Atrazine sorption and fate in a Ultisol from humid tropical Brazil

This study combined laboratory based microcosm systems as well as field experiments to evaluate the mobility of atrazine on a Ultisol under humid tropical conditions in Brazil. Results from sorption experiments fit to the Freundlich isotherm model [K(f) 0.99 mg kg(-1)/(mg l(-1))(1/n)], and indicate a low sorption capacity for atrazine in this soil and consequently large potential for movement by leaching and runoff. Microcosm systems using (14)C-atrazine to trace the fate of the applied herbicide, showed that 0.33% of the atrazine was volatilized, 0.25% mineralized and 6.89% was recorded in the leachate. After 60 d in the microcosms, 75% of the (14)C remained in the upper 5 cm soil layer indicating atrazine or its metabolites remained close to the soil surface. In field experiments, after 60 d, only 5% of the atrazine applied was recovered in the upper soil layers. In the field experiments atrazine was detected at a depth of 50 cm indicating leaching. Simulating tropical rain in field experiments resulted in 2.1% loss of atrazine in runoff of which 0.5% was adsorbed onto transported soil particles and 1.6% was in solution. Atrazine runoff was greatest two days after herbicide application and decreased 10 fold after 15 d. The use of atrazine on Ultisols, in the humid tropics, constitutes a threat to water quality, causing surface water and ground water pollution.     

Carbon monoxide from composting due to thermal oxidation of biomass

Emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) were observed from decomposing organic wastes and litter under laboratory, pilot composting plant, and natural conditions. Field studies included air from inside a compost heap of about 200 m3, emissions from composting of livestock wastes at a biologically operating farm, and leaf litter pile air samples. The concentration of CO was up to 120 micromol mol(-1) in the compost piles of green waste, and up to 10 micromol mol(-1) in flux chambers above livestock waste windrow composts. The mean CO flux rates were approximately 20 mg CO m(-2) h(-1) for compost heaps of green waste, and varied from 30 to 100 mg CO m(-2) h(-1) for fresh dung windrows. Laboratory studies using a temperature and ventilation-controlled substrate container were performed to elucidate the origin of CO, and included hay samples of fixed moisture content at temperatures between 5 and 65 degrees C, including nonsterilized as well as sterilized samples. The concentration of CO was up to 160 micromol mol(-1) in these experiments, and Arrhenius-type plot analyses resulted in activation energies of 65 kJ mol(-1) for thermochemically produced CO from the nonsterilized compost substrate. Sterilized samples showed dramatically reduced CO2 but virtually unchanged CO emissions, albeit at a slightly lower activation energy, likely a result of the high-temperature sterilization. Though globally and regionally these CO emissions are only a minor source, thermochemically produced CO emissions might affect local air quality in and near composting facilities.