Fine‐resolution conservation planning with limited climate‐change information

Climate‐change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation‐related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation‐planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk‐diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate‐change scenarios for carrying out fine‐resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk‐return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate‐change information and full climate‐change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate‐change forecasts such that the best possible risk‐return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate‐change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.     

Method to assess component contribution to toxicity of complex mixtures: Assessment of puberty acquisition in rats exposed to disinfection byproducts

A method based on regression modeling was developed to discern the contribution of component chemicals to the toxicity of highly complex, environmentally realistic mixtures of disinfection byproducts(DBPs). Chemical disinfection of drinking water forms DBP mixtures.Because of concerns about possible reproductive and developmental toxicity, a whole mixture(WM) of DBPs produced by chlorination of a water concentrate was administered as drinking water to Sprague–Dawley(S–D) rats in a multigenerational study. Age of puberty acquisition,i.e., preputial separation(PPS) and vaginal opening(VO), was examined in male and female offspring, respectively. When compared to controls, a slight, but statistically significant delay in puberty acquisition was observed in females but not in males. WM-induced differences in the age at puberty acquisition were compared to those reported in S–D rats administered either a defined mixture(DM) of nine regulated DBPs or individual DBPs. Regression models were developed using individual animal data on age at PPS or VO from the DM study. Puberty acquisition data reported in the WM and individual DBP studies were then compared with the DM models. The delay in puberty acquisition observed in the WM-treated female rats could not be distinguished from delays predicted by the DM regression model, suggesting that the nine regulated DBPs in the DM might account for much of the delay observed in the WM. This method is applicable to mixtures of other types of chemicals and other endpoints.     

Life cycle cost evaluation of the digital opacity compliance system

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has established EPA Reference Method 9 (Method 9) as the preferred enforcement approach for verifying compliance with federal visible opacity standards. While Method 9 has an extensive history of successful employment, reliance on human observers to quantify visible emissions is inherently subjective, a characteristic that exposes Method 9 results to claims of inaccuracy, bias and, in some cases, outright fraud.The Digital Opacity Compliance System (DOCS), which employs commercial-off-the-shelf digital photography coupled with simple computer processing, is a new approach for quantifying visible opacity. The DOCS technology has been previously demonstrated to meet and, in many cases, surpass the Method 9 accuracy and reliability standards (McFarland et al., 2006). Beyond its performance relative to Method 9, DOCS provides a permanent visual record of opacity, a vital feature in legal compliance challenges.In recent DOCS field testing, the opacity analysis of two hundred and forty one (241) regulated air emissions from the following industrial processes: 1) industrial scrubbers, 2) emergency generators, 3) asphalt paving, 4) steel production and 5) incineration indicated that Method 9 and DOCS were statistically equivalent at the 99% confidence level. However, a life cycle cost analysis demonstrated that implementation of DOCS could potentially save a facility $15,732 per trained opacity observer compared to utilization of Method 9.     

Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale

Society needs a quantitative and systematic way to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas. This paper presents an approach for regional risk assessment that combines regional assessment methods and landscape ecology theory with an existing framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the effects of an environmental change on a valued natural resource and interprets the significance of those effects in light of the uncertainties identified in each component of the assessment process. Unique and important issues for regional risk assessment are emphasized; these include the definition of the disturbance scenario, the assessment boundary definition, and the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through Interagency Agreement Number DW89932112-01-2 to the U.S. Department of Energy, it has not been subjected to EPA review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Treatment of risk in environmental impact assessment

Risk assessment and environmental impact assessment have developed as separate traditions. While environmental impact assessment is a broad field that includes all activities that attempt to analyze and evaluate the effects of human and related actions on the environment, risk assessment has been concerned with the relatively well-defined regulatory problems and employs formal quantitative analysis of the probability of specific undesired events, such as cancer. Risk analytic approaches, particularly the explicit treatment of uncertainty, can significantly contribute to environmental assessments. This article discusses the type and sources of uncertainty in environmental assessments, techniques for their quantification, and ways to use uncertainty estimates to calculate probabilities of effects or probabilities of exceeding environmental standards and to determine the need for mitigation or additional research.This article was presented at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Task Force Meeting on Risk and Policy Analysis under Conditions of Uncertainty, Laxenburg, Austria, November 1985.     

Evaluation of methods for determining adverse impacts of air pollution on terrestrial ecosystems

Methods used to determine adverse impacts of air pollution on four levels of biological organization of terrestrial ecosystems were evaluated for their use in decision making by federal land managers of class I areas and as guidelines for scientists employed to design field studies in these areas. At the level of the individual, visible injury, biomass, and sulfur uptake were the most often used components; at the population level, natality and mortality; at the community level, diversity; and at the ecosystem level, biogeochemical cycling. Most studies focused on structural responses of individual organisms. These components are relatively sensitive and are easy and inexpensive to measure; however, linkages of these parameters to adverse impacts on populations, communities, or ecosystems are lacking. Measurements of effects of air pollution at the higher levels of organization are confounded by natural variability, long response times, climatic variation, pathogens, and other factors. In addition, the lack of replication and of true control areas creates severe problems for design of monitoring programs and testing of hypotheses concerning effects.     

Behavior of a surface applied radionuclide and a dye tracer in structured and repacked soil monoliths

There has been increasing evidence in recent years about the impact of soil structure on vadose zone hydrology and the distribution of surface applied chemical substances. We have carried out a combined dye and radionuclide tracer study on two monoliths from the same location, one structured and one repacked, as part of an ongoing study to investigate the link between preferential flow, leaching of surface applied substances and their distribution within the soil.A tracer solution containing 1300 Bq/L (58)Co and 0.31 micromol/L Sulforhodamine B (SB) was added with roughly constant irrigation during a period of three weeks. The dye served as a tracer for water movement within the soil and thus allowed linkage of the radiotracer ((58)Co) with the flow pattern. Both were monitored in the outflow and measured within profile sections after monolith disassembly. Preferential flow in the structured monolith promoted the bypass and transport of both tracers, although transport was impeded at depths greater than 30 cm by compacted soil and reduced hydraulic conductivity. Eighty four percent of radiocobalt and 8% of SB were found in the upper 4 cm of the structured monolith. The homogenized monolith, on the other hand, showed mostly chromatographic infiltration and a more efficient soil filtering capacity with 91% of radiocobalt and 20% SB residing in the upper 4 cm. Furthermore no tracer was found in the outflow of the homogenized monolith during normal to high irrigation or at greater depth within the monolith. We have related flow characteristics and sorption of radiotracers by quantifying dye distributions and radionuclide activities throughout the profiles. Activities within the flow paths are up to 20-times higher than those measured in the soil matrix, and a fraction of radiocobalt follows the dye tracer in spite of cobalt's low mobility. The dye can thus be used to trace radionuclide distribution within the soil block.