Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale

Society needs a quantitative and systematic way to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas. This paper presents an approach for regional risk assessment that combines regional assessment methods and landscape ecology theory with an existing framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the effects of an environmental change on a valued natural resource and interprets the significance of those effects in light of the uncertainties identified in each component of the assessment process. Unique and important issues for regional risk assessment are emphasized; these include the definition of the disturbance scenario, the assessment boundary definition, and the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through Interagency Agreement Number DW89932112-01-2 to the U.S. Department of Energy, it has not been subjected to EPA review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

DYNAMICS OF SIMULATED EFFECTS OF IRRIGATION OVER DRYLAND FARMING IN SASKATCHEWAN1

ABSTRACT: Irrigation development in Saskatchewan was initiated as an instrument to bring forth regional stability through drought proofing and diversification in the agricultural sector. This development has been surrounded by controversies. Particularly, some critics questioning its economic value to the farmer. In this study, irrigation on a farm is compared as a growth alternative to the expansion of dryland farming. Under relatively conservative machine replacement policies, modest family withdrawals, government subsidized irrigation loans, and relatively favorable gross operating margins, irrigation can be a profitable undertaking in the South Saskatchewan River Basin.     

THE FLOOD HAZARD AND DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Literature on the flood hazard/residential land market relationship is full of contradictory findings, many of which are counter-intuitive to the belief that flooding has a negative impact on house prices. This research advances a conceptual framework through which these relationships might be re-examined. Based on the expected utility model, the theoretical framework integrates the economic notion of capitalization with spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood hazard. Four communities with different flood regimes are used to test the effect of flooding on the residential real estate market. Results show that, (1) there is an identifiable relationship between characteristics of the flood hazard and changes in house values; (2) the length of the recovery period is dependent on characteristics and expectations of flooding, attributes of the real estate market, and availability of capital to fuel recovery; and (3) dynamics of the urban market and spatial extent of the flood hazard influence these relationships. Further research is now necessary to examine these findings under different spatial, temporal, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions.     

Housing in the new cities of Egypt

The New Cities of Egypt represent a major effort to redistribute investment and population away from Cairo and the Delta in a brave attempt to use desert land. Through a study of three cities under construction, the reliance on government‐built walk‐up flats for housing provision is discussed and its relevance for later phases questioned. In conclusion, the efficacy of the New Cities as counter‐attractions is doubted in the absence of effective controls on the growth of Cairo.     

The use of Landsat multispectral scanner data for the analysis and management of flooding on the river Severn,England

Remote sensing has emerged as one of the major techniques for the analysis and delineation of large floods. This analysis can provide data invaluable for the hydrological management of large river systems. A need for information on the extent of floodplain inundation for the lower reaches of the largest river in the UK was met by a search through Landsat images of floods and the analysis of the best example recorded. Automated classification of the Landsat imagery of this flood on the river Severn in 1977 was used to provide estimates of the extent and spatial distribution of inundation. Flood images were generated using the Plessey IDP 3000 image processor, and the maps derived accorded well with aerial photography and qualitative flood information. Three distinct floodplain environments were delineated and flood images produced by different spectral bands compared. Specific questions prompted by flood hazard management and concerning the processes and extent of flooding were answered by the Landsat data analysis. Management of the flood risk of large rivers is expensive and remote sensing data is a relatively cheap and effective way of monitoring control works and providing data for the prediction of the effects of future hydrological works. Remote sensing is a practical way in which spatial information concerning the behavior of large dynamic systems can be obtained both quickly and relatively cheaply.     

UK interpretation and implementation of the EEC Shellfish directive

The EEC Shellfish Directive is a policy designed to protect and, where necessary, improve the quality of designated shellfish waters. Its implementation within the UK, however, has had no effect upon water quality for two reasons. First, the policy has important defects, having ambiguities concerning public health provisions and lacking designation criteria. Second, UK government has sought to achieve formal compliance, while at the same time ensuring that its full financial impact on public expenditure has been contained. Consequently, only those fisheries which already comply with water quality standards have been designated. Within Wales, one fishery has been designated, while other, commercially more important, but grossly contaminated shellfisheries have not.     

Work schedule flexibility and family life

This paper explores the implications of work schedule flexibility for family life. Based on data from the 1977 Quality of Employment Survey, it demonstrates that flexibility of work schedules moderates the effects of nonstandard work schedules on family life. That is, nonstandard work schedules tend to have a less negative association with the quality of family life when accompanied by a high level of schedule flexibility. The paper further demonstrates that this tendency of flexibility to act as a buffer against the negative effects of nonstandard work schedules on family life is more pronounced among working women than working men.     

A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FLOOD INDUCED CHANGES IN URBAN LAND VALUES1

ABSTRACT: By integrating literature from flood hazard research and urban economics a theoretical structure is developed to explain changes in residential land values following flood events. The negative aspects of the flood hazard are shown to be capitalized in the value of the property. It is further suggested that land values (i.e., capitalization) will vary both spatially across the floodplain and temporally depending on the frequency, severity and spatial characteristics of the flood event. Previous work in this area has not addressed the capitalization process explicitly and has not specifically examined the ability of the land market to recover. This may account for the contradictory findings in the published literature.     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Household size and composition and implications for housing need in Kumasi,Ghana: a research note

A simple method of calculating the scale of housing need for Kumasi, Ghana, uses two likely variations in household size distribution and an overcrowding threshold of 3 p.p.r., and a measure of preference. The two household size distributions take account both of trends and of changes which may occur if and when new housing is provided. At that time, released from the current constraints, household formation along traditional lines may again be possible. The preferred supply equates households’ perceived need to their ability to pay at current rents. The resulting range of rooms required is wide but even the lowest need is so far in excess of supply that conventional approaches are self‐evidently inadequate and greater client involvement must be encouraged.