The expected number of road traffic casualties using stratified data

Road safety policy plans often require robust calculation of the expected number of road casualties in a certain target year. The relevance of such estimations should be measured by their power to influence and support safety policy makers. Thus, techniques to evaluate the safety developments and the estimating methods must be sound, robust, and preferably accepted by both policy makers and the scientific community. In this paper, we concentrate on choosing an appropriate model used for the calculation, rather than on statistical techniques. We calculate a casualty rate from casualty data and mobility (distance travelled) data, which is extrapolated and subsequently multiplied by an expected future distance travelled. After correction for separately assessed effects of additional safety measures, the number of casualties is estimated. We investigate a method where this is done after both mobility data and casualty data are stratified into properly chosen subsets. Projecting these different trends generally leads to a result that differs from the projection of the aggregated data. Also, stratification enables incorporation in the estimation of explaining factors or additional measures related to a specific subset of the casualties. The principles of stratified projections are illustrated by three Dutch projections which were carried out between 2006 and 2008. Also, some preliminary results of further research on stratification are given. The results imply that the rates of change in casualty rate for different traffic modes or driver age, are not necessarily equal. We propose that these specific decreasing trends are a consequence of external influencing factors.     

Vertical distributions of 210Pb excess, 7Be and 137Cs in selected grass covered soils in Southeast Queensland, Australia

Net accumulated areal activity densities and profiles of (210)Pb(ex), (7)Be and (137)Cs in the surface 10 cm of the soil are reported for eight sites in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Areal activity densities of (210)Pb(ex) and (7)Be varied from 1,080 to 4,100 Bqm(-2) and from 176 to 778 Bqm(-2), respectively. A significant (p < 0.001) portion of the variance (R(2) > 0.99) in their vertical distributions was explained by depth in the profile using an exponential function. Around 85% of accumulated (210)Pb(ex) was present in the surface 10 cm of the soil. Beryllium-7 was mainly confined to the grass and surface 2 cm of the soil. Average penetration half-depths of 3.6 +/- 0.2 and 0.3 +/- 0.1cm were determined for (210)Pb(ex) and (7)Be, respectively. Areal activity densities of global fallout (137)Cs varied from 10 to 361 Bqm(-2). Its signal was well mixed within the surface 10 cm. Comparison of the measured (137)Cs values to the estimated input value for the region ( approximately 490 Bqm(-2)) and profiling of a 1m deep soil core suggests a vertical migration of (137)Cs over the past decades. The paleo-radon activity flux determined from the (210)Pb(ex) areal activity density (5.1 +/- 0.9 mBqm(-2) s(-1)) was not statistically different to that measured using activated charcoal cups (5.5 +/- 0.4 mBqm(-2) s(-1)), tending to suggest that Southeast Queensland is neither a net source nor a net sink of (210)Pb-bearing aerosols.     

Towards a spatial information infrastructure for flood management in The Netherlands

The immense value of a geographic information system for flood control has been experienced by the decision-markers of the Dutch province of Gelderland during the flood of the Rivers Meuse (Maas) and Waal in January 1995. Super-imposing different ‘data layers’, GIS-experts could detect the weak parts in the dikes and generate and evacuation plan. Shortcomings within the organization were experienced as well: important data could not be retrieved, and the coordination of efforts by the different governmental departments and institutions was not optimal. To overcome these shortcomings and to optimize the modelling process, a spatial decision support system (SDSS) is being proposed, aggregating several models, heuristic and procedural, into integrated software tools. As becomes clear from two cases of flood control described, ‘emergency managers’ should be able to communicate about spatial data available and have access to selected spatial data. In order to improve communication between data sources, data processing and the use of relevant spatial data in GISs, a new ‘Spatial Information Infrastructure’ (SII) needs to be developed. This requires both technical and organizational solutions and standards. Proper documentation of the data will allow the GIS-experts to more quickly find, store, update and reuse the data. A range of ‘metadata’ services exist documenting data sets, typically limited by thematic or national boundaries. There are no standards in common practice for structuring and classifying spatial information. The user of spatial information cannot easily browse across Web-sites and compare products from different suppliers. Even, if the search has been successful, the user all too often has to face a complex process of negotiation, and highly technical data integration issues. A consortium of European GIS-experts has addressed these problems and launched the ‘European Spatial Metadata Infrastructure’ (ESMI) project with the objective to link existing and future metadata systems using Internet.     

Modeling Relationships between Indoor and Outdoor Air Quality

ABSTRACT

Information about the ratio between indoor and outdoor concentrations (IO ratios) of air pollutants is a crucial component in human exposure assessment. The present study examines the relationship between indoor and outdoor concentrations as influenced by the combined effect of time patterns in outdoor concentrations, ventilation rate, and indoor emissions. Two different mathematical approaches are used to evaluate IO ratios. The first approach involves a dynamic mass balance model that calculates distributions of transient IO ratios. The second approach assumes a linear relationship between indoor and outdoor concentrations. We use ozone and benzene as examples in various modeling exercises. The modeled IO ratio distributions are compared with the results obtained from linear fits through plots of indoor versus outdoor concentrations.     

Two-phase jet releases,droplet dispersion and rainout I. Overview and model validation

Many accidents involve two-phase releases of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. This paper describes the results of the fourth phase of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The objective of Phase IV of the JIP was to generate experimental rainout data for non-flashing experiments, and to develop recommendations for the best methodology to predict rainout [total rainout mass and its spatial distribution (‘distributed’ rainout)].Phase IV of the JIP first included rainout experiments by the UK Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) for sub-cooled releases of water and xylene with a range of orifice sizes and stagnation pressures. See the companion paper II for further details. Secondly model validation was carried out by DNV Software for these experiments using different correlations for the initial droplet size (Sauter Mean Diameter, SMD), i.e. the CCPS SMD correlation and the Phase III JIP SMD correlation. The validation includes flow rates, droplet size, distributed rainout and cloud temperature drop. Subsequently validation was considered for a wider range of experiments from the literature (sub-cooled and superheated releases) for both SMD and total rainout. Adopted rainout methods comprised both methods including explicit modelling of the droplets (using an extended version of Phast dispersion model UDM), as well as more simple methods based on rainout correlations without droplet modelling. Recommendations are made for the most accurate droplet size and rainout modelling. A modified CCPS UDM droplet size correlation has been shown to agree best against experimental rainout data.     

Residential Construction, Land Use and the Environment. Simulations for the Netherlands Using a GIS-Based Land Use Model

The present generation of geographical information systems supports strategic planning processes in several ways. They are able to store, manage and analyse the enormous amount of data needed. Another more output-oriented use is the visualisation of the diversity of locational preferences and perspectives of different interest groups and stakeholders. For the simulation of (more indirect) effects of autonomous or planned developments land use modelling can be applied. A step further is the definition and implementation of a set of indicators that show the impact of land use change on different aspects of space and the environment in order to facilitate the (political) discussions, that are an essential part of strategic planning.This paper focuses on the application of a GIS-based simulation model in the framework of the Fifth National Physical Planning Report in the Netherlands. The simulation model generates future land use in the Netherlands given several growth scenarios and a spatial strategy that comprises both foreseen strategic and autonomous developments. Special attention is paid to residential construction because this is expected to be one of the major driving forces in land use changes. An analysis of residential construction for the period 1980–1995 reveals that residential construction has been relatively concentrated in areas close to existing urban areas. New town policies also played a rather strong role during this period. The presence of natural areas (woods and wetlands) plays a significant though limited role in the choice where to build new dwellings. The simulation results for the year 2020 are used to assess the effects of land use changes for a range of environmental indicators.     

Between Precautionary Principle and “Sound Science”: Distributing the Burdens of Proof

Opponents of biotechnology ofteninvoke the Precautionary Principle to advancetheir cause, whereas biotech enthusiasts preferto appeal to ``sound science.' Publicauthorities are still groping for a usefuldefinition. A crucial issue in this debate isthe distribution of the burden of proof amongthe parties favoring and opposing certaintechnological developments. Indeed, the debateon the significance and scope of thePrecautionary Principle can be fruitfullyre-framed as a debate on the proper division ofburdens of proof. In this article, we attemptto arrive at a more refined way of thinkingabout this problem in order to escape from theexisting polarization of views between ``guiltyuntil proven innocent' and ``innocent untilproven guilty.' This way of thinking alsoenables a critical review of currentdemarcations between risk assessment and riskmanagement, or science and politics, and of themorally laden controversy on the relativeimportance of type-I and type-II errors instatistical testing.     

The emissions of heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants from modern coal-fired power stations

Extensive research for establishing the emissions of heavy metals from coal-fired power stations is performed in the Netherlands for the past 25 years. In the Netherlands coal is fired from all over the world. This means that the emissions are established for coal of various origins. In the eighties, the emissions of installations equipped with ESPs (electrostatic precipitators) were measured. In the nineties, the influence of wet FGD (flue gas desulphurisation) on the emissions was studied. The effect of co-combustion of biomass and other secondary fuels is the main item for the last 10 years.Fifty-five elements were measured in the solid state and eight elements in the gaseous phase. It appeared that at low particulate concentration the influence of calcium containing evaporated water droplets downstream the wet FGD on the emissions of heavy metals is bigger than the composition of the coal. Also it appeared that at modern coal-fired power stations the emissions are hardly influenced by co-combustion of biomass. All the results are used for modelling, resulting in the KEMA TRACE MODEL^®, by which the emissions can be predicted. The established emission factors are for most elements in good agreement with literature values for comparable modern installations.Persistence organic pollutants (POPs) that were detected in the flue gases of coal-fired power stations are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and dioxins/furans. Measurements during full coal-firing and during co-firing of biomass have indicated that these emissions are negligible.