An outlook on Dutch road safety in 2020; future developments of exposure,crashes and policy

This paper discusses the method used for an outlook on road safety in the Netherlands until 2020. The objectives of the outlook are to judge the feasibility of the Dutch road safety policy targets and to estimate the effects in 2020 of new measures. The outlook consists of baseline forecasts assuming the unchanged continuation of the effect of current road safety policy as a starting point, and the effect of new measures on top of that. We used four different mobility scenarios, derived from a comprehensive study about the macro-economic development of Dutch society until 2040. In the mobility scenario with the largest growth it appeared doubtful whether the policy targets of that time for the maximum number of fatalities in 2020 (580) can be achieved. An extensive inventory of new measures after 2010 produced five already intended new measures, the effects of which were estimated. The results show that the target of maximum 580 fatalities in 2020 can probably be met. The recently adjusted policy target of 500 fatalities in 2020 is also feasible if additional new measures are taken.     

Determining patterns of variability in ecological communities: time lag analysis revisited

All ecological communities experience change over time. One method to quantify temporal variation in the patterns of relative abundance of communities is time lag analysis (TLA). It uses a distance-based approach to study temporal community dynamics by regressing community dissimilarity over increasing time lags (one-unit lags, two-unit lags, three-unit lags). Here, we suggest some modifications to the method and revaluate its potential for detecting patterns of community change. We apply Hellinger distance based TLA to artificial data simulating communities with different levels of directional and stochastic dynamics and analyse their effects on the slope and its statistical significance. We conclude that statistical significance of the TLA slope (obtained by a Monte Carlo permutation procedure) is a valid criterion to discriminate between (i) communities with directional change in species composition, regardless whether it is caused by directional abundance change of the species or by stochastic change according to a Markov process, and (ii) communities that are composed of species with population sizes oscillating around a constant mean or communities whose species abundances are governed by a white noise process. TLA slopes range between 0.02 and 0.25, depending on the proportions of species with different dynamics; higher proportions of species with constant means imply shallower slopes; and higher proportions of species with stochastic dynamics or directional change imply steeper slopes. These values are broadly in line with TLA slopes from real world data. Caution must be exercised when TLA is used for the comparison of community time series with different lengths since the slope depends on time series length and tends to decrease non-linearly with it.     

Physical Effects of New Devices for Bricklayers

Bricklaying is a physically demanding job. Bricklayers frequently flex their trunk to pick up bricks and mortar and position these in a wall. The experienced workload is highest working with bricks at 0 to 50 cm from the floor. In this study the effects of 2 devices that have proven to be feasible in practice are evaluated.

The 50 cm raise due to the 2 devices is experienced as comfortable, the estimated lumbar compression force was reduced, and observations indicate likewise. It is discussed that the field experiments have many drawbacks. Nevertheless, based on this study in combination with other literature the improvements could be recommended.     

Two-phase jet releases,droplet dispersion and rainout,II. Rainout experiments

This paper describes the results of the first experimental stage of Phase IV of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The objective of this stage of the JIP was to generate experimental rainout data for non-flashing water and xylene experiments. See the overview companion paper I for a wider overview of the problem, model implementation and associated model validation.A range of orifice sizes (2.5 and 5 mm) and stagnation pressures (4–16 barg) were applied. Measurements included flow rate, initial droplet size, plume concentrations/temperatures for a range of downstream locations, and distributed rainout.Instead of the Phase Doppler Anemometry method used for droplet size measurements earlier in the JIP, a photographic technique was applied in an attempt to include measurement of the larger (non-spherical) droplets. This enabled a more accurate evaluation of the initial droplet size distribution and a much clearer understanding of the droplet morphology. The results showed that the droplet behaviour in the jet is more complex than had been anticipated with the mass distribution dominated by a very small number of large non-spherical droplets. Consequently a large number of spray images were required to evaluate an accurate size distribution.Distributed rainout was measured by weighing the amount of rainout in trays positioned along the jet direction. The rainout results showed a good degree of repeatability and internal consistency. They indicated that an increasing proportion of the released material did not rainout for increasing pressure. Rainout distance also increased with increasing pressure. Evaporation of the liquid was confirmed by temperature measurements, which showed the effect of evaporative cooling.Xylene concentration measurements (up to 1%) were carried out using a direct reading photoionization detector calibrated for xylene (measuring vapour only). For a limited dataset, the accuracy of these measurements was estimated by means of comparison against an alternative more time-consuming concentration method (xylene absorption onto a charcoal filter; measuring both vapour and liquid). The concentration measurements displayed several consistent qualitative features. For example, at a given downstream distance, the peak concentration increases with increasing pressure and nozzle diameter and the vertical height at which the peak is achieved increases. The cross-stream profiles displayed a consistent tendency to increased concentration at the edge of the jet, and the reason for this has not been established.Finally recommendations are provided for potential future work.     

Analysis of underlying causes of investigated loss of containment incidents in Dutch Seveso plants using the Storybuilder method

In the Netherlands there are around 400 “Seveso” sites that fall under the Dutch Major Hazards Decree (BRZO) 1999. Between 2006 and 2010 the Dutch Labour Inspectorate's Directorate for Major Hazard Control completed investigations of 118 loss of containment incidents involving hazardous substances from this group. On the basis of investigation reports the incidents were entered in a tailor-made tool called Storybuilder developed for the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment for identifying the dominant patterns of technical safety barrier failures, barrier task failures and underlying management causes associated with the resulting loss of control events. The model is a bow-tie structure with six lines of defence, three on either side of the central loss of containment event. In the first line of defence, failures in the safety barriers leading to loss of control events were primarily equipment condition failures, pre start-up and safeguarding failures and process deviations such as pressure and flow failures. These deviations, which should have been recovered while still within the safe envelope of operation, were missed primarily because of inadequate indication signals that the deviations have occurred. Through failures of subsequent lines of defence they are developing into serious incidents. Overall, task failures are principally failures to provide adequate technical safety barriers and failures to operate provided barriers appropriately. Underlying management delivery failures were mainly found in equipment specifications and provisions, procedures and competence. The competence delivery system is especially important for identifying equipment condition, equipment isolation for maintenance, pre-start-up status and process deviations. Human errors associated with operating barriers were identified in fifty per cent of cases, were mostly mistakes and feature primarily in failure to prevent deviations and subsequently recover them. Loss of control associated with loss of containment was primarily due to the containment being bypassed (72% of incidents) and less to material strength failures (28%). Transfer pipework, connections in process plant and relief valves are the most frequent release points and the dominant release material is extremely flammable. It is concluded that the analysis of a large number of incidents in Storybuilder can support the quantification of underlying causes and provide evidence of where the weak points exist in major hazard control in the prevention of major accidents.     

Late Variscan exhumation histories of the southern Rhenohercynian Zone and western Mid-German Crystalline Rise: results from thermal modeling

Thermal modeling techniques constrained by published petrological and thermo-chronometric data were applied to examine late orogenic burial and exhumation at a Variscan suture zone in Central Europe. The suture separates the southern Rhenohercynian zone from the Mid-German Crystalline Rise and traces the former site of a small oceanic basin. Closure of this basin during Variscan subduction and subsequent collision of continental units were responsible for different tectono-metamorphic evolutions in the suture's footwall and hanging wall. Relative convergence rates between the southern Rhenohercynian zone and western Mid-German Crystalline Rise can be inferred from the pressure-temperature-time evolution of the Northern Phyllite Zone. During Late Viséan-Early Namurian times, horizontal thrusting velocities were at least 20 mm/a. Thermal modeling suggests that exhumation of the Mid-German Crystalline Rise occurred temporarily at rates of more than 3 mm/a. Such rapid exhumation cannot be produced by erosion only, but requires a substantial contribution of extensional strain. Exhumation by upper crustal extension occurred contemporaneously with convergence and is explained by continuous underplating of crustal slices and thrusting along faults with ramp-flat geometry. Finally, implications for the tectono-metamorphic history of the study area and the thermal state of the crust during late Variscan exhumation are discussed.     

Management of a Dutch resident barnacle goose <Emphasis Type="Italic">Branta leucopsis</Emphasis> population: How can results from counts,ringing and hunting bag statistics be reconciled?

The resident Dutch Northern Delta barnacle geese Branta leucopsis population expanded steadily since birds first bred in 1982, increasing agricultural conflict. Derogation shooting has been used since 2005 to scare geese from sensitive crops and to reduce population size. Numbers almost doubled to ca. 28 000 individuals during 2007–2014, despite annual removal of 15–25% of geese and adult and juvenile survival rates of 79 and 67% (cf. natural survival of 96% for both age classes). Simple population modelling, using estimated annual survival values and fixed fecundity, predicted a moderate increase to 21 500 individuals in 2014. It is unclear whether current harvest levels are sufficient to halt population growth. Shooting may be less effective because of the disproportionate take of immature post-breeding and of individuals from other populations in winter. Discrepancies between counted and modelled abundance call for caution and improved effect monitoring of derogation shooting before harvest levels are increased further.     

Modelling the dynamics of coral reef macroalgae using a Bayesian belief network approach

Macroalgae are a major benthic component of coral reefs and their dynamics influence the resilience of coral reefs to disturbance. However, the relative importance of physical and ecological processes in driving macroalgal dynamics is poorly understood. Here we develop a Bayesian belief network (BBN) model to integrate many of these processes and predict the growth of coral reef macroalgae. Bayesian belief networks use probabilistic relationships rather than deterministic rules to quantify the cause and effect assumptions. The model was developed using both new empirical data and quantified relationships elicited from previous studies. We demonstrate the efficacy of the BBN to predict the dynamics of a common Caribbean macroalgal genus Dictyota. Predictions of the model have an average accuracy of 55% (implying that 55% of the predicted categories of Dictyota cover were assigned to the correct class). Sensitivity analysis suggested that macroalgal dynamics were primarily driven by top–down processes of grazing rather than bottom–up nutrification. BBNs provide a useful framework for modelling complex systems, identifying gaps in our scientific understanding and communicating the complexities of the associated uncertainties in an explicit manner to stakeholders. We anticipate that accuracies will improve as new data are added to the model.     

Anammox: an option for ammonium removal in bioreactor landfills

Experiments carried out in bioreactor landfill simulators demonstrated that more than 40% of the total N was transferred into the liquid and gas phases during the incubation period of 380 days. Ammonium, an end product of protein degradation and important parameter to consider during landfill closure, tends to accumulate up to inhibitory levels in the leachate of landfills especially in landfills with leachate recirculation. Most efforts to remove ammonium from leachate have been focused on ex situ and partial in situ methods such as nitrification, denitrification and chemical precipitation. Besides minimal contributions from other N-removal processes, Anammox (Anaerobic Ammonium Oxidation) bacteria were found to be active within the simulators. Anammox is considered to be an important contributor to remove N from the solid matrix. However, it was unclear how the necessary nitrite for Anammox metabolism was produced. Moreover, little is known about the nature of residual nitrogen in the waste mass and possible mechanisms to remove it. Intrusion of small quantities of O₂ is not only beneficial for the degradation process of municipal solid waste (MSW) in bioreactor landfills but also significant for the development of the Anammox bacteria that contributed to the removal of ammonium. Volatilisation and Anammox activity were the main N removal mechanisms in these pilot-scale simulators. The results of these experiments bring new insights on the behaviour, evolution and fate of nitrogen from solid waste and present the first evidence of the existence of Anammox activity in bioreactor landfill simulators.     

Controls on coarse wood decay in temperate tree species: birth of the LOGLIFE experiment

Dead wood provides a huge terrestrial carbon stock and a habitat to wide-ranging organisms during its decay. Our brief review highlights that, in order to understand environmental change impacts on these functions, we need to quantify the contributions of different interacting biotic and abiotic drivers to wood decomposition. LOGLIFE is a new long-term 'common-garden' experiment to disentangle the effects of species' wood traits and site-related environmental drivers on wood decomposition dynamics and its associated diversity of microbial and invertebrate communities. This experiment is firmly rooted in pioneering experiments under the directorship of Terry Callaghan at Abisko Research Station, Sweden. LOGLIFE features two contrasting forest sites in the Netherlands, each hosting a similar set of coarse logs and branches of 10 tree species. LOGLIFE welcomes other researchers to test further questions concerning coarse wood decay that will also help to optimise forest management in view of carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation.