The emergence of the transition movement in Canada: success and impact through the eyes of initiative leaders

ABSTRACT

Originating in the UK in 2006, the Transition movement is oriented to local grassroots citizen-led efforts that prepare for and support a societal energy transition to a low-carbon future in response to climate change, peak oil, ecological degradation, and economic instability. Overlapping significantly with relocalization, degrowth/slow growth, local food, and related movements, and based on permaculture principles and a distributed network model, it embraces the opportunity to turn crisis into an opportunity to build more resilient, convivial, and vibrant local communities, declaring that “if it’s not fun, it’s not sustainable”. The Transition approach has spread rapidly around the world, including initiatives in over 100 communities and cities in Canada. This paper reports on the methods and results of a Canadian community-based research study aimed at understanding how and where the movement has taken root across the country, what Transition practice looks like, challenges and opportunities encountered, and lessons learned that could be applied within the movement and by others interested in the role of citizen-led initiatives for sustainability transition. Utilising a practice theory lens, drawing on an extensive web-scan of the movement’s online presence, a survey and interviews with initiative (co)founders, an e-survey of Transition members/participants, regional “structured story-dialogue” workshops, and key informant interviews, and informed by input from a Movement Advisory Group, we describe the research process and explore what success and impact mean to those most active in the movement.     

Hidden process models for animal population dynamics.

Hidden process models are a conceptually useful and practical way to simultaneously account for process variation in animal population dynamics and measurement errors in observations and estimates made on the population. Process variation, which can be both demographic and environmental, is modeled by linking a series of stochastic and deterministic subprocesses that characterize processes such as birth, survival, maturation, and movement. Observations of the population can be modeled as functions of true abundance with realistic probability distributions to describe observation or estimation error. Computer-intensive procedures, such as sequential Monte Carlo methods or Markov chain Monte Carlo, condition on the observed data to yield estimates of both the underlying true population abundances and the unknown population dynamics parameters. Formulation and fitting of a hidden process model are demonstrated for Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytsha).     

Effects of human footprint and biophysical factors on the body-size structure of fished marine species

Marine fisheries in coastal ecosystems in many areas of the world have historically removed large-bodied individuals, potentially impairing ecosystem functioning and the long-term sustainability of fish populations. Reporting on size-based indicators that link to food-web structure can contribute to ecosystem-based management, but the application of these indicators over large (cross-ecosystem) geographical scales has been limited to either fisheries-dependent catch data or diver-based methods restricted to shallow waters (<20 m) that can misrepresent the abundance of large-bodied fished species. We obtained data on the body-size structure of 82 recreationally or commercially targeted marine demersal teleosts from 2904 deployments of baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo-BRUV). Sampling was at up to 50 m depth and covered approximately 10,000 km of the continental shelf of Australia. Seascape relief, water depth, and human gravity (i.e., a proxy of human impacts) were the strongest predictors of the probability of occurrence of large fishes and the abundance of fishes above the minimum legal size of capture. No-take marine reserves had a positive effect on the abundance of fishes above legal size, although the effect varied across species groups. In contrast, sublegal fishes were best predicted by gradients in sea surface temperature (mean and variance). In areas of low human impact, large fishes were about three times more likely to be encountered and fishes of legal size were approximately five times more abundant. For conspicuous species groups with contrasting habitat, environmental, and biogeographic affinities, abundance of legal-size fishes typically declined as human impact increased. Our large-scale quantitative analyses highlight the combined importance of seascape complexity, regions with low human footprint, and no-take marine reserves in protecting large-bodied fishes across a broad range of species and ecosystem configurations.     

The US National Cancer Institute's natural products repository; origins and utility

The US National Cancer Institute's natural products collection program has been running since 1986 and over the years the materials collected and processed have been stored in a repository that as a result of initial planning, has permitted the establishment of a national resource that is now being utilized as a drug discovery tool for any disease of interest to the NIH by researchers world-wide. This paper describes the history of the program.     

Spatial characteristics of habitat patches and population survival

The effect of the spatial arrangement of habitat patches on the survival of resident populations were considered in a stochastic model using population parameters appropriate to Peromyscus leucopus. The 34 possible arrangements of connections among five otherwise identical patches were simulated in order to determine the survival probabilities and population sizes.The main findings are that populations in completely isolated patches have lower survival probabilities than those in patches that are connected to other patches, are connected to the survival probabilities of populations in connected patches increases with the size of the largest geometric figure of which the patch is a part. The results are discussed in the context of resource management.     

Studying citizen science through adaptive management and learning feedbacks as mechanisms for improving conservation

Citizen science has generated a growing interest among scientists and community groups, and citizen science programs have been created specifically for conservation. We examined collaborative science, a highly interactive form of citizen science, which we developed within a theoretically informed framework. In this essay, we focused on 2 aspects of our framework: social learning and adaptive management. Social learning, in contrast to individual‐based learning, stresses collaborative and generative insight making and is well‐suited for adaptive management. Adaptive‐management integrates feedback loops that are informed by what is learned and is guided by iterative decision making. Participants engaged in citizen science are able to add to what they are learning through primary data collection, which can result in the real‐time information that is often necessary for conservation. Our work is particularly timely because research publications consistently report a lack of established frameworks and evaluation plans to address the extent of conservation outcomes in citizen science. To illustrate how our framework supports conservation through citizen science, we examined how 2 programs enacted our collaborative science framework. Further, we inspected preliminary conservation outcomes of our case‐study programs. These programs, despite their recent implementation, are demonstrating promise with regard to positive conservation outcomes. To date, they are independently earning funds to support research, earning buy‐in from local partners to engage in experimentation, and, in the absence of leading scientists, are collecting data to test ideas. We argue that this success is due to citizen scientists being organized around local issues and engaging in iterative, collaborative, and adaptive learning.     

Remote estimation of phycocyanin (PC) for inland waters coupled with YSI PC fluorescence probe

Nuisance cyanobacterial blooms degrade water resources through accelerated eutrophication, odor generation, and production of toxins that cause adverse effects on human health. Quick and effective methods for detecting cyanobacterial abundance in drinking water supplies are urgently needed to compliment conventional laboratory methods, which are costly and time consuming. Hyperspectral remote sensing can be an effective approach for rapid assessment of cyanobacterial blooms. Samples (n?=?250) were collected from five drinking water sources in central Indiana (CIN), USA, and South Australia (SA), which experience nuisance cyanobacterial blooms. In situ hyperspectral data were used to develop models by relating spectral signal with handheld fluorescence probe (YSI 6600 XLM-SV) measured phycocyanin (PC in cell/ml), a proxy pigment unique for indicating the presence of cyanobacteria. Three-band model (TBM), which is effective for chlorophyll-a estimates, was tuned to quantify cyanobacteria coupled with the PC probe measured cyanobacteria. As a comparison, two band model proposed by Simis et al. (Limnol Oceanogr, 50(11): 237–245, 2005; denoted as SM05) was paralleled to evaluate TBM model performance. Our observation revealed a high correlation between measured and estimated PC for SA dataset (R ²?=?0.96; range: 534–20,200 cell/ml) and CIN dataset (R ²?=?0.88; range: 1,300–44,500 cell/ml). The potential of this modeling approach for imagery data were assessed by simulated ESA/Centinel3/OLCI spectra, which also resulted in satisfactory performance with the TBM for both SA dataset (RMSE %?=?26.12) and CIN dataset (RMSE %?=?34.49). Close relationship between probe-measured PC and laboratory measured cyanobacteria biovolume was observed (R ²?=?0.93, p?<?0.0001) for the CIN dataset, indicating a stable performance for PC probe. Based on our observation, field spectroscopic measurement coupled with PC probe measurements can provide quantitative cyanobacterial bloom information from both relatively static and flowing inland waters. Hence, it has promising implications for water resource managers to obtain information for early warning detection of cyanobacterial blooms through the close association between probe measured PC values and cyanobacterial biovolume via remote sensing modeling.     

Floodplain methylmercury biomagnification factor higher than that of the contiguous river (South River, Virginia USA)

Mercury biomagnification on the South River floodplain (Virginia, USA) was modeled at two locations along a river reach previously modeled for methylmercury movement through the aquatic trophic web. This provided an opportunity to compare biomagnification in adjoining trophic webs. Like the aquatic modeling results, methylmercury-based models provided better prediction than those for total mercury. Total mercury Food Web Magnification Factors (FWMF, fold per trophic level) for the two locations were 4.9 and 9.5. Methylmercury FWMF for the floodplain locations were higher (9.3 and 25.1) than that of the adjacent river (4.6). Previous speculation was not resolved regarding whether the high mercury concentrations observed in floodplain birds was materially influenced by river prey consumption by riparian spiders and subsequent spider movement into the trophic web of the adjacent floodplains. Results were consistent with a gradual methylmercury concentration increase from contaminated floodplain soil, to arthropod prey, and finally, to avian predators.     

Regional variation in queen and worker aggression in incipient colonies of the desert ant Messor pergandei

The fate of queen foundress associations in ants varies across taxa: in some, lethal fighting results in survival of a single queen, while in others, queens coexist long term. One hypothesis for this difference is that selection favors fighting when group sizes are small and tolerance when groups are large. In an experiment with the ant Messor pergandei, we formed small, medium, and large groups with newly mated queens from field populations that have different mean group sizes and differ in whether multiple queens occur in older established colonies. We found that whether queens are eliminated by fighting depends upon region of origin and not group size: regardless of co-foundress number, queens from sites with single-queen adult field colonies displayed agonistic behaviors and their colonies reduced to a single queen, while queens from sites with multiple-queen colonies did not fight and co-foundresses coexisted long term. Worker aggression towards and elimination of queens were also correlated with region of origin. Where fighting occurred, queens were as likely to be killed by workers as by other queens. An aggressive display was the most common form of agonistic interaction among queens, while fighting was relatively rare. We hypothesize that queen displays evolved in response to worker attacks because they increase the probability that workers will eliminate competitor queens. Our results suggest that the evolutionary interests of workers, as well as queens, could be important in determining the evolution and maintenance of queen elimination in foundress associations.