Model selection and evaluation for risk assessment of dioxin-contaminated sites

The general European population has a total intake of dioxins and dioxin-like chemicals near the limit recommended by the European Union, making additional exposure above background levels undesirable. For populations living near dioxin-contaminated sites, additional exposure may occur by intake of locally produced food, inhalation of particles, dermal contact with soils, or other exposure pathways. Risk assessment tools are required to estimate risks associated with contaminated sites and to set priorities for site remediation. Here, we review several multimedia models that can be applied as tools to support risk assessment. We then present a strategy to select, apply, evaluate, and adapt a model to address a specific situation. The case study we consider is a risk assessment of generic background dioxin exposure in Sweden, and we compare the predictions with environmental observations and exposure data from Sweden. Arguments are presented for selecting the CalTOX model for this case study. We demonstrate the application, evaluation, and adaptation of the model and discuss the requirements for extending the analysis to conduct risk assessment for subpopulations living near dioxin-contaminated sites.     

Flood vulnerability,risk, and social disadvantage: current and future patterns in the UK

Regional Environmental Change - Present day and future social vulnerability, flood risk, and disadvantage across the UK are explored using the UK Future Flood Explorer. In doing so, new indices of...     

Bioacoustic distances between the begging calls of brood parasites and their host species: a comparison of metrics and techniques

A variety of bioacoustics distance metrics have been used to assess similarities in the vocalizations of different individuals. Here, we provide a detailed analysis of several acoustic similarity indices, some of which have been developed with the specific aim of characterizing the sensory coding of auditory stimuli. We compare different approaches through the analysis of begging calls of several passerine species and specialist brood parasitic cuckoos that putatively evolved to mimic their hosts. The different bioacoustics distances did not provide consistently correlated similarity patterns, implying that they are sensitive to different sound features. However, the encoded spectrogram alignment method was correlated with all other acoustic distance metrics, suggesting that this method provides a consistent approach to use when the perceptually salient sound parameters are unknown for a particular species. Our analyses confirm that statistical similarity of begging calls can be detected in a New Zealand pair of host and specialist parasite species. We also show detectable similarity in two other Australasian host–parasite pairs and another New Zealand system, but to a more limited extent. By examining phylogenetic patterns in the begging call diversity, we also confirm that specialist cuckoos have evolved to mimic the begging calls of their hosts but host species have not co-evolved to modify their calls in response to begging call similarity by the parasite. Our results illustrate that understanding the function and mechanism of behavioral copying and mimicry requires statistically consistent measures of similarity that are related to both the physical aspects of the particular display and the sensory basis of its perception.     

Toward efficient riparian restoration: integrating economic, physical, and biological models

This paper integrates economic, biological, and physical models to explore the efficient combination and spatial allocation of conservation efforts to protect water quality and increase salmonid populations in the Grande Ronde basin, Oregon. We focus on the effects of shade on water temperatures and the subsequent impacts on endangered juvenile salmonid populations. The integrated modeling system consists of a physical model that links riparian conditions and hydrological characteristics to water temperature; a biological model that links water temperature and riparian conditions to salmonid abundance, and an economic model that incorporates both physical and biological models to estimate minimum cost allocations of conservation efforts. Our findings indicate that conservation alternatives such as passive and active riparian restoration, the width of riparian restoration zones, and the types of vegetation used in restoration activities should be selected based on the spatial distribution of riparian characteristics in the basin. The relative effectiveness of passive and active restoration plays an important role in determining the efficient allocations of conservation efforts. The time frame considered in the restoration efforts and the magnitude of desired temperature reductions also affect the efficient combinations of restoration activities. If the objective of conservation efforts is to maximize fish populations, then fishery benefits should be directly targeted. Targeting other criterion such as water temperatures would result in different allocations of conservation efforts, and therefore are not generally efficient.     

Air monitoring of persistent organic pollutants in the Great Lakes: IADN vs. AEOLOS

When designing a monitoring campaign, one has to consider many factors in the decision to perform a long-term synoptic monitoring program or a short-term intensive study. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages. This paper compares and contrasts the information obtained from two studies conducted on the Laurentian Great Lakes. One, the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN), is a long-term synoptic monitoring study and the other, the Atmospheric Exchange Over Lakes and Oceans (AEOLOS), was a short-term intensive study. The advantages of long-term synoptic monitoring programs are providing greater spatial information, the relative influence of long and short-range transport on the regional background, gross loadings representative of the majority of each lake and long-term temporal trends. Short-term intensive studies provide more information on the processes governing sources, transport and deposition, such as the urban/industrial influence on adjacent large water bodies, specific sources to an urban/industrial area and short-term fluctuations in concentrations due to meteorology, source strength and photochemical reactions. Using information provided by both the IADN and AEOLOS studies, areas of urban influence are predicted for each of the five Great Lakes.     

The multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) and the sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART): two novel evaluation methods for developing optimal training programs

Current methodologies in training evaluation studies largely employ a single method entitled random confirmatory trials, prompting several concerns. First, practitioners and researchers often analyze the effectiveness of their entire omnibus training, rather than the individual elements or identifiable components of the training program. This slows the testing of theory and development of optimal training programs. Second, a common training is typically administered to all employees within an organization or workgroup; however, certain factors may cause individualized training to be more effective. Given these concerns, the current paper presents two training evaluation methodologies to overcome these problems: the multiphase optimization strategy and sequential multiple assignment randomized trials. The multiphase optimization strategy is a method to evaluate a standard training, which emphasizes the importance of a multi‐stage training evaluation process to analyze individual training elements. In contrast, sequential multiple assignment randomized trial is used to evaluate an adaptive training that varies over time and/or trainees. These methodologies jointly overcome the problems noted earlier, and they can be integrated to address several of the key challenges facing training researchers and practitioners. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候及老化之因素

尽管大部分试验都与研究和开发有关,但人们从事试验的主要原因仍是为了满足客户对材料的要求。在试验期间或评估结果时可做出若干结论或决定。引起老化的三大主要因素是：光（日光辐射）、水（湿度）和温度。但这不仅是每种因素需要多少量才能最终导致材料降解的问题,因为辐射波长不同、潮湿程度不同、以及实际温度的冷热循环,均会对曝露的材料造成很大（甚至主要）的影响。这些因素（及其变化）的共同作用导致降解。辐射能量分为直射分量和漫射分量,按波段不同又分为紫外部分、可见部分和红外部分。文中给出了各种辐射量的大小、定义和等式。气候在降解过程中起着关键作用。不同气候以不同方式对材料产生作用。气候老化研究的两种典型气候为亚热带和沙漠气候。     

The NIOSH Construction Program: Research to practice, impact, and developing a National Construction Agenda

The U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) conducts research to improve and protect the health and safety of workers. This paper describes the experience of the NIOSH Construction Program with two recent program planning initiatives intended to improve the program: (a) an independent external review of work over the past decade and (b) the development of strategic goals organized into a “National Construction Agenda” to guide a decade of future work. These goals, developed with input from construction industry stakeholders and researchers, are a part of the NIOSH National Occupational Research Agenda (NORA) initiative. The NORA goals are intended to provide an ambitious set of goals for all construction stakeholders to work together on. Both efforts relate to insuring the relevance and impact of research, reflecting an emerging policy perspective that research programs should be judged not just by the quality and quantity of science produced, but by the industry impact and tangible benefit resulting from the research. This paper describes how views on research planning have evolved to incorporate lessons learned about how research leads to improved safety and health for workers. It also describes the process used to develop the goals and the resulting strategic and intermediate goals that comprise the National Construction Agenda.