Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment

In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species’ distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11–13% for all species combined (14–15% for mammals, 7–8% for birds, and 12–15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one‐time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded.     

Case study approach to modeling historical disinfection by-product exposure in Iowa drinking waters

In the 1980 s, a case–control epidemiologic study was conducted in Iowa(USA) to analyze the association between exposure to disinfection by-products(DBPs) and bladder cancer risk. Trihalomethanes(THMs), the most commonly measured and dominant class of DBPs in drinking water, served as a primary metric and surrogate for the full DBP mixture.Average THM exposure was calculated, based on rough estimates of past levels in Iowa. To reduce misclassification, a follow-up study was undertaken to improve estimates of past THM levels and to re-evaluate their association with cancer risk. In addition, the risk associated with haloacetic acids, another class of DBPs, was examined. In the original analysis, surface water treatment plants were assigned one of two possible THM levels depending on the point of chlorination. The re-assessment considered each utility treating surface or groundwater on a case-by-case basis. Multiple treatment/disinfection scenarios and water quality parameters were considered with actual DBP measurements to develop estimates of past levels. The highest annual average THM level in the re-analysis was156 μg/L compared to 74 μg/L for the original analysis. This allowed the analysis of subjects exposed at higher levels( 96 μg/L). The re-analysis established a new approach, based on case studies and an understanding of the water quality and operational parameters that impact DBP formation, for determining historical exposure.     

The prenatal diagnosis of joubert's syndrome of familial agenesis of the cerebellar vermis

The prenatal diagnosis by ultrasound examination of Joubert's syndrome of familial agenesis of the cerebellar vermis is described allowing termination of pregnancy ai 26 weeks gestation. The diagnosis was made by a comparison of the prenatal ultrasound examination with computerized axial tomography obtained from the siblings with the same condition.     

Avian Species Richness in Different-Aged Stands of Riparian Forest Along the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

Riparian forests are important for maintaining vertebrate species richness in the southwestern United States, but they have become restricted in distribution due to both historical and current management practices. In order to counteract continued loss of this habitat, several mitigation programs were developed in the middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. Three areas ranging from 50 to 140 ha were revegetated with native trees using pole planting and cattle exclosures, and changes in vegetation structure were quantified after 2, 3, and 5 years of growth. As expected, the older site contained the most heterogeneous mix of plant species and the greatest structural diversity. We compared year-round avian use of the revegetated sites with a mature cottonwood forest site of approximately 30 years of age. As the revegetated sites matured and salient habitat features changed, the population dynamics of individual avian species and patterns of guild structure varied. The older revegetated sites showed a greater similarity to the mature cottonwood site, suggesting that reclamation efforts established quality riparian habitats for birds in as little as 5 years. The revegetated sites appeared especially important for Neotropical-migrant birds. We suggest that a mosaic of riparian woodlands containing mixtures of native tree and shrub species of different size classes is necessary to maintain avian species richness in the middle Rio Grande drainage, and probably throughout the southwestern United States.     

Polyandry in the genus Apis, particularly Apis andreniformis

Using four polymorphic microsatellite loci, we found that four Apis andreniformis queens collected in Thailand each mated at least 10–20 times, producing an average relatedness, g _ww, of workers of 0.30 ± 0.007, and an average effective number of matings of 9.1 ± 2.2. The degrees of polyandry and intra-colonial genetic relatedness in A. andreniformis are similar to those in A. mellifera, slightly more than in A. florea, and up to 6 times less than in A. dorsata. We argue that while presently favoured hypotheses for the evolution of polyandry in monogynous social insects may adequately explain the evolution of up to five or six matings, they are inadequate to explain the extreme polyandry (10–60 matings) observed in Apis. One alternative possibility is that colony fitness is a non-additive function of the fitness of individual subfamilies. Such behavioral over-dominance may mean that queen fitness is increased by high levels of polyandry, which increase the probability of desirable combinations of worker genotypes occurring in one colony. The special attributes of honey bees which may lead to behavioral over-dominance include colony aggregation (which may increase the incidence of disease), and frequent long-distance migration. Received: 8 May 1996/Accepted after revision: 9 August 1996     

Environmental influences on larval duration,growth and magnitude of settlement of a coral reef fish

The influence of environmental variables on the planktonic growth, pelagic larval duration and settlement magnitude was examined for the coral reef surgeonfish Acanthurus chirurgus. Newly settled fish were collected daily from patch reefs in the San Blas Archipelago, Caribbean Panama for 3.5 years. Environmental influences on growth were examined at three different life history stages: from 0 to 6 days, 7 to 25 days and from 26 to 50 days after hatching. Larval growth was correlated, using multiple regression techniques, with a combination of factors including solar radiation, rainfall, and along-shore winds. Depending on the life history stage, these accounted for 13–38% of the variation in growth rates when all the months were included in the analyses. Correlations between environmental variables and growth also varied among seasons and were stronger in the dry than in the wet season. During the dry season solar radiation, rainfall and along-shore winds described 57%, 86% and 74% of the variability in growth between 0 and 6 days, 7 and 25 days and 26 and 50 days, respectively. During the wet season rainfall, along-shore winds and temperature only described 38% of the variability in early growth and 27% of growth just before settlement. No significant model was found to describe growth 7–25 days after hatching during the wet season. Rainfall, solar radiation and along-shore winds were negatively correlated with growth up to 25 days after hatching but positively correlated as larvae approached settlement at a mean age of 52 days. Over 65% of the variability in pelagic larval duration was accounted for by a regression model that included solar radiation and along-shore winds. When data sets from wet and dry seasons were analysed separately, along-shore winds accounted for 67% of the change in larval duration in the dry season, and solar radiation accounted for 23% of the variation in larval duration in the wet season. Only 22% of the variability in settlement intensity could be described by solar radiation and temperature, when all months of the year were included in the analysis. Solar radiation and rainfall were included in a regression model that accounted for 40% of the variation in numbers of fish settling during the dry season. This study suggests that the levels of solar radiation, along-shore winds and rainfall during the early larval life can have important effects on the growth, larval duration and consequently, the settlement magnitude of marine fishes. Results also highlight the need to account for seasonality and ontogeny in studies of environmental influences.Communicated by G.F. Humphrey, Sydney     

Deforestation Predicts the Number of Threatened Birds in Insular Southeast Asia

The world's tropical forests are being cleared rapidly, and ecologists claim this is causing a massive loss of species. This claim has its critics. Can we predict extinctions from the extent of deforestation? We mapped the percentage of deforestation on the islands of the Philippines and Indonesia and counted the number of bird species found only on these islands. We then used the species-area relationship to calculate the number of species predicted to become globally extinct following deforestation on these islands. Next, we counted the numbers of insular southeast Asian endemic bird species considered threatened—i.e., those having "a high probability of extinction in the wild in the medium-term future"—in the latest summary Red Data Book. The numbers of extinctions predicted from deforestation and the numbers of species actually threatened are strikingly similar. This suggests we can estimate the size of the extinction crisis in once-forested regions from the extent of deforestation. The numbers of extinctions will be large. Without rapid and effective conservation, many of the species endemic to insular southeast Asia will soon be lost.     

Energetics of Euphausia pacifica. I. Effects of body carbon and nitrogen and temperature on measured and predicted production

Laboratory production during the life span of Euphausia pacifica was measured directly (as the sum of growth, molting and reproduction) and indirectly (as assimilation minus metabolism and leakage) to test the hypothesis that weight-specific production is a constant for all sizes. Euphausiids were collected in Puget Sound, Washington State, USA, from September 1973 to March 1978. Equations were determined (in terms of carbon and nitrogen at 8° and 12° C) expressing the relationships between body weight and the daily rates of growth, molting, reproduction, ingestion and metabolism. The allometric equation (R=aW ^b ) best related body weight (W) to the rate (R) for growth, molting, ingestion, respiration and excretion for life stages from late larvae through adults. As predicted by the original above hypothesis, the weight-specific coefficient (b) was close to 1.0 for ingestion and excretion; in contrast, b was 0.62 for growth, and 0.77 to 0.85 for molting and respiration. The Q₁₀ s also varied: 3.5 for growth, 2.4 for molting, about 3.0 for ingestion, and 2.0 for respiration and excretion. Assimilation efficiencies, for all weights and at both temperatures, were 81.3% of carbon and 85.9% of nitrogen ingested. The relationships between rate and body weight of early larvae for growth and molting were linear, as was the relationship for reproduction in adults. Weight-specific production was higher by I to 2% at 12° than 8° C for all life stages, and was 2 to 4% for carbon and 2 to 6% for nitrogen in adults, but 13 to 17% for carbon and 14 to 15% for nitrogen in early furcilia larvae. The null hypothesis was rejected for production measured directly, but would have been accepted if only an indirect measurement of nitrogen production had been considered. Clearly, indirect measurement incorporates all errors of measurement and assumption and makes interpretation difficult.     

Depth distribution of developing Euphausia superba embryos,predicted from sinking rates

Sinking rates of the embryos of Euphausia superba were measured during development in the laboratory at Palmer Station. Antarctic Peninsula, during austral summer 1982. Two densities of seawater were used in these experiments; the lower density (1.027 g cm^-3) is characteristic of the upper 300 m of the water column, the higher (1.029 g cm^-3) is characteristic of the deeper circumpolar deep water. During development, the eggs sank at an initial average rate of 175 m d^-1, declining to 51 m d^-1 during the gastrula to early limb bud stages and increasing before hatching to near initial rates. The larvae hatched within 6 d. We predict that the majority of the embryos of E. superba should hatch at a depth of about 850 m.     

Environ indicator sensitivity to flux uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA

Effective environmental impact assessment and management requires improved understanding of the organization and transformation of ecosystems in which independent agents are linked through an intricate network of energy, matter, and informational interactions. While advances have been made, we still lack a complete understanding of the processes that create, constrain, and sustain ecosystems. Network environ analysis (NEA) provides one approach for building novel ecosystem insights, but it is model dependent. As ecological modeling is an imprecise art, often complicated by inadequate empirical data, the utility of NEA may be limited by model uncertainty. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of NEA indicators of ecosystem growth and development to flow and storage uncertainty in a phosphorus model of Lake Sidney Lanier, USA. The indicators are total system throughflow (TST), total system storage (TSS), total boundary input (Boundary), Finn cycling index (FCI), ratio of indirect-to-direct flows (Indirect/Direct), indirect flow index (IFI), network aggradation (AGG), network homogenization (HMG), and network amplification (AMP). Our results make two primary contributions. First, they demonstrate that five of the indicators – FCI, Indirect/Direct, IFI, AGG and HMG – are relatively robust to the flow and storage uncertainty in the Lake Lanier model. This stability lets us draw robust conclusions about the Lake Lanier ecosystem organization (e.g., phosphorus flux in the lake is dominated by internal processes) in spite of uncertainties in the model. Second, we show that the majority of the indicators co-vary and that most of their common variation could be mapped onto two latent factors, which we interpret as (1) system integration and (2) boundary influences.