Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Modeling the spatial pattern of farmland using GIS and multiple logistic regression: a case study of Maotiao River Basin, Guizhou Province, China

Land use change is an important topic in the field of global environmental change and sustainable development. Land use change modeling has attracted substantial attention because it helps researchers understand the mechanisms of land use change and assists regulatory bodies in formulating relevant policies. Maotiao River Basin is located in the province of Guizhou, China, which has a developed agricultural industry in the karst mountain areas. This paper selected biophysical and social–economic factors as independent variables, and constructed a multiple logistic regression of farmland spatial distribution probability by random sampling. Then, by using GIS technology and integrating the 2000 data, this study predicted the farmland spatial pattern. When the predicted map was compared with the actual farmland map for 2000, we noted that 71% of the simulation is in accordance with the 2000 farmland pattern. The result satisfactorily proves the reasonability and applicability of our model.     

塔里木油田环境空气质量状况及评价

根据塔里木油田１９９３－１９９６年环境空气监测数据，对其环境空气质量状况进行了分析和评价。     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系，选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度，并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明：全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势，耦合协调度集中分布在0.393~0.765，基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素，建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

用蚕豆叶尖微核技术筛选对环境污染物敏感品种

为了筛选蚕豆叶尖微核监测技术敏感材料,以二甲苯为污染物,对甘肃产的10个蚕豆品种进行了测试。结果表明,蚕引8号微核出现率与二甲苯诱变剂浓度成正比,平均微核率差异极显著,是监测评价二甲苯污染的敏感品种。     

Occurrence of dissolved PAHs in the Jinsha River (Panzhihua)--upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Southwest China

16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in water samples from the Jinsha River (Panzhihua part), Southwest China. Total dissolved PAH concentrations varied from 21.89 microg l(-1) to 382.8 microg l(-1). It was found that the concentration of PAHs decreased along the flow direction due to the higher density distribution of coal chemical industry in the upstream of our study rivers. The pollution levels in our study area are significantly higher than previously reported values in other waters both in China and other countries. The predominance of benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene was clearly observed in all water samples. On average these two compounds accounted for 98.3% of the total dissolved PAH concentration in water. The results showed the positive correlations among total dissolved PAHs, benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, which suggested that these two predominant PAHs have similar source and environmental behaviors in our study area. When compared with the survey results of organic micropollutants two decades ago, it was found that hydrocarbon pollution both predominated and even increased with the development of coal chemical industry in this area during the past 20 years. The results therefore provide important information on the current contamination status of a key industrial city in China, and points to the need for urgent action to investigate the relationship between the PAH composition and concentration in water from the Jinsha River and the wastewater discharge from coal chemical industry, and to identify the source, transport pathway and fate of PAHs in the area. It should then be necessary to adopt appropriate and instant measures to control the pollution around this area.     

浅谈小型餐饮服务业排污申报登记

简述了小型餐饮服务业的特点，指出排污申报登记制度落实难、废水中各污染物排放量核定难及申报登记表设计欠合理是小型餐饮服务业在排污申报登记中存在的主要问题。提出，应加大宣传力度，进一步提高餐饮服务业业主以及广大公民的环保意识；制定较合理的排污量核算系数，修订申报内容；实行《排污申报登记注册证》制度，强化执法力度，以促进小型餐饮服务业全面实施排污申报登记制度。     

Book reviews

Cost Benefit Analysis of Environmental Change

Per‐Olov Johansson

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 232 pp., £13.95

Computerised Environmental Modelling: A Practical Introduction using Excel

J. Hardisty, D. M. Taylor & S. E. Metcalfe

Chichester, Wiley, 1993, 204 pp., £14.95

Keeping Pace with Science and Engineering: Case Studies in Environmental Regulation

Washington DC, US National Academy of Engineering, 1993

World Without End: Economics, Environment and Sustainable Development

D. W. Pearce & J. J. Warford

Oxford University Press, New York, 1993, 440 pp., £35.95     

珍贵油料植物诸葛菜的研究

四川大学植物遗传研究室经过几年的调查研究,发现诸葛菜的农艺性状较好,分枝多、角果多,每果子粒多,千粒重较重,含油量较高,特别是油分品质优异,其营养价值高的脂肪酸如油酸和亚油酸的含量较高,分别为20.32％,和53.17％,其营养价值低的脂肪酸如亚麻酸和芥酸的含量较低,分别为4.76％和0.94％,是油菜优质育种的优异新种源,可以作为油菜远缘杂交育种亲本,并可能选育出优质油料新作物。本文对诸葛菜的开花授粉习性作了观察,对核型特点作了分析,可供育种工作的参考,诸葛菜主产中国。四川大学在国内外首先推荐这种有希望的油料新种源。     

湖泊水体中硫酸盐增高的环境效应研究

通过对高原３个硫酸盐浓度差异的湖泊沉积物水界面硫的形态分布、扩散通量和碎屑有机硫通量等估算，揭示了湖泊水体硫酸盐增加以后的环境效应和自然反馈机制．研究认为：水体向沉积物内部扩散和界面硫酸盐还原作用是高硫酸盐浓度水体硫酸盐的主要清除作用，随硫酸盐浓度的增加，它在水体清除硫酸盐作用的贡献逐渐增大，而低硫酸盐含量湖泊水体生物同化吸收作用是水体硫酸盐的主要清除机制，它在硫酸盐浓度不同的水体没有差异．