APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO FLOOD FORECASTING1

The main focus of this study was to compare the Grey model and several artificial neural network (ANN) models for real time flood forecasting, including a comparison of the models for various lead times (ranging from one to six hours). For hydrological applications, the Grey model has the advantage that it can easily be used in forecasting without assuming that forecast storm events exhibit the same stochastic characteristics as the storm events themselves. The major advantage of an ANN in rainfall‐runoff modeling is that there is no requirement for any prior assumptions regarding the processes involved. The Grey model and three ANN models were applied to a 2,509 km² watershed in the Republic of Korea to compare the results for real time flood forecasting with from one to six hours of lead time. The fifth‐order Grey model and the ANN models with the optimal network architectures, represented by ANN1004 (34 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), ANN1010 (40 input nodes, 25 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), and ANN1004T (14 input nodes, 21 hidden nodes, and 1 output node), were adopted to evaluate the effects of time lags and differences between area mean and point rainfall. The Grey model and the ANN models, which provided reliable forecasts with one to six hours of lead time, were calibrated and their datasets validated. The results showed that the Grey model and the ANN1010 model achieved the highest level of performance in forecasting runoff for one to six lead hours. The ANN model architectures (ANN1004 and ANN1010) that used point rainfall data performed better than the model that used mean rainfall data (ANN1004T) in the real time forecasting. The selected models thus appear to be a useful tool for flood forecasting in Korea.     

OPEN CHANNEL INTERPOLATION OF CROSS SECTIONAL PROPERTIES1

ABSTRACT: This paper confirms the use of interpolated data to refine water surface profiles. Sources of error within these computations are due to truncation error, inaccuracies in geometric data, and improper modeling. Confirmation includes the development of an equation that models the effect of data measurement error on the computed water surface profile. A review of interpolation procedures includes a proposed method based upon geometric properties.     

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT EVALUATION OF HAZARDOUS WASTE DISPOSAL IN LAND1

Since the publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring in 1962 there has been a rapidly growing public concern over widespread contamination of the environment with hazardous wastes. In recent years scientific findings on the ecological effects of various hazardous substances have posed several important questions. What exactly are hazardous wastes? Can these substances be disposed of in a technically feasible, economical, and safe way with assurance that they have been permanently eliminated from the ecosystem? What compositional alterations or movements of the hazardous wastes occur in water, soil, or air systems? What effect will these wastes have on the water, soil, or air systems? What effect will these wastes have on the water, soil, or air properties? Consequently, a University of Louisville study has developed a relevant definition of hazardous wastes for the Environmental Engineering profession together with priority of concern rating systems to delineate the degree of environmental impact imposed on a total ecosystem by a hazardous waste and the feasibility of disposing of hazardous substances at specific landfill sites. It is felt that refinements of the priority of concern rating systems offered here may provide a sound basis from which procedural decisions may be structured to establish future national hazardous waste disposal sites.     

In-situ bioremediation of amine- and glycol-contaminated soils using low-intervention methods

Biological plugs are an innovative, low-intervention, in-situ bioremediation methodology for both saturated and unsaturated contaminated soils. They are modular in-ground immobilized microbe bioreactors designed to rapidly increase the oxidation of organic contaminants by placing an adapted consortia of microorganisms in close proximity to the contaminants of concern. The approach is versatile, in that contaminants can be remediated in-situ without the removal of existing structures as well as being able to efficiently and economically treat contaminants over a large area. Amine- and glycol-contaminated soils at gas sweetening plants, represent a significant problem in magnitude, prevalence, and risk along pipelines stretching through Canada's western provinces. A field pilot study was conducted at an isolated former gas sweetening plant in northwestern Alberta. Monoethyamine (MEA) and several glycols were successfully remediated in situ in a 138-day time frame. Soil toxicity was significantly reduced. The engineering challenges and associated economics of remediating such isolated sites are also presented.     

Understanding Dispute Resolution Processes for American and Australian Public Wildlands: Towards a Conceptual Framework for Managers

/ The last 20 years have seen the successful application of environmental dispute resolution processes, where people voluntarily negotiate toward mutually acceptable solutions, to many environmental disputes. The effects of contextual influences, such as the number of parties and presence of deadlines, on outcomes are known and frequently described. Less well documented and understood are the interaction processes themselves. This paper draws on two case studies to develop a conceptual framework describing these processes. Disputes associated with management planning for the Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex in the United States and Fitzgerald River National Park in Australia provided the cases. The conceptual framework derived had eight sequential stages: (1) joint definition of problems, (2) uncertainty about what to do, (3) agreement on group procedures, (4) realization of interdependence, (5) enthusiasm about collective possibilities, (6) commitment to working together, (7) consolidation of the group, and (8) implementation of a resolution. The framework provides new insights for managers of public wildlands, especially the need for varying but ongoing managerial involvement in dispute resolution processes. High levels of involvement and influence are essential at the beginning in problem definition and group procedure design and at the end in implementing resolutions. Conversely, agency members must be willing to exert less influence, while still being involved and committed to collective purposes, during the middle stages. Also apparent from the conceptual framework is the importance of developing shared understandings and of allowing sufficient time for understanding to develop, if successful resolution is to be achieved. KEY WORDS: Environmental dispute resolution; Conceptual framework; Public wildlands; Shared understandings; Australia     

Local circulation and aerosol water-soluble ions--a case study in Taiwan during Mei-yu season

The Mei-yu (plum rain) season is a short but important period when the weather changes from spring to summer in Taiwan. In this study, size-segregated aerosols were collected alternately at 5 sampling sites in northwestern Taiwan from June 16 to 24, 1994. For the first time in Taiwan, this study revealed the aerosol mass spectra and water-soluble ions in the Mei-yu season. For all samples, a bi-modal aerosol mass spectra was found with modal diameters at 3.2 and 0.32 microm, respectively. The aerosol samples were able to be divided into different groups to show their mass and ion spectra according to the calculated 5-hr backward air trajectory. The utilization of enrichment factors showed that aerosol Cl-, Na+, and Mg2+ for all sizes, and super-micron SO4(2-) were related to the sea. Both the scheme of "chlorine loss" (Ohta and Okita, 1990) and a multivariate analysis (Thurston and Spengler, 1985) for categorizing water-soluble ions showed that sea-salts were major contributors in the prevalence of a sea breeze. In contrast, the secondary salts were significant for land breeze and a mix of land-sea breeze. In conclusion, the influence of local circulation on the distribution of aerosol mass and ionic species was found to be prominent.     

Foliar response of black cherry (Prunus serotina) clones to ambient ozone exposure in central Pennsylvania

During late summer of 1996 and 1997 we examined ozone-induced foliar injury in a plantation of 111 black cherry trees (ramets) comprising 15 clones originating from wild ortets growing in the Allegheny National Forest, Pennsylvania, and the Monongahela National Forest, West Virginia. The experimental plantation was a clonal seed orchard in Centre County, Pennsylvania, started in 1971 using ortet buds grafted onto seedling rootstocks of mixed origin. Clones differed significantly in severity of foliar injury symptoms (F=31.83, p<0.001). One clone (R-12) had significantly more foliar injury with >50% leaf area affected than other clones during both years. In contrast, clone R-14, which is from the same area in northcentral Pennsylvania as R-12, exhibited significantly less injury (LAA<6%). Although ambient O(3) concentrations were similar in both years, foliar injury was significantly greater (15.7%) in 1996 than in 1997 (9.9%). This is probably explained by lower stomatal conductance in 1997 caused by drier and hotter weather patterns in June and July of that year. Despite very different weather patterns and overall levels of injury in 1996 and 1997, mean clonal injury was significantly correlated between both years of assessment (r=0.92, p<0.001). Within tree crowns, foliage in lower and inner crown positions was significantly more injured than foliage in upper and exterior crown positions. There was no evidence of geographically based population differences in sensitivity to foliar O(3) injury. On the contrary, results demonstrate that wild genotypes of proximal geographic origin may differ greatly in sensitivity.     

Distribution of Trace Metals in the Surface Sediments of Two Pristine Subalpine Lakes in Taiwan

Sediment cores were collected from two remote subalpine lakes: the rather shallow (1.5 m) Little Ghost Lake at 2040 m elevation and the deeper, Great Ghost Lake (40 m) at 2150 m elevation. Different early diagenesis of metals were observed. the seasonally anoxic hypolimnion drives the annual iron redox cycle and causes the remobilization of metals in the mobile fractions of sediments in the Great Ghost Lake. These result in the redistribution of metals in the mobile fractions of sediment and poor correlation between metal concentrations. in the Little Ghost Lake, the shallow water column is always oxic with less change of metals in the mobile fractions of sediments. As a result, most metals have strong positive correlations with each other.

The distributions of metal/Al ratios, total metal contents and acid-leached metal concentrations in the near-surface sediments of these two lakes suggest that the anthropogenic inputs from the atmospheric fallouts in recent decades are one of the major factors affecting the distributions of metals such as cadmium, lead and, to a lessor extent, zinc. the Pb-206/Pb-207 ratios confirm the anthropogenic lead input in these surface sediments.     

Graduated driver licensing restrictions: awareness, compliance, and enforcement in North Carolina

PROBLEM: This study examined the extent to which critical restrictions in North Carolina's graduated driver licensing (GDL) system are known, adhered to, and enforced. METHOD: Teenagers and their parents were recruited as they applied for either an intermediate or full license at 1 of 23 licensing offices. Telephone interviews were conducted with 900 teenagers and their parents. RESULTS: Awareness of North Carolina's night and passenger restrictions was very high among both parents and teenagers. Ten percent of teenagers reported violating the night restriction without their parents' knowledge, and 15% had done so with their parents' approval. Only 4% of parents reported allowing their teenagers to drive with more than one teenage passenger, but 19% of teenagers reported that they were allowed to do this. Violations of the passenger restriction without parental knowledge were more common than violations of the night restriction (22% vs. 10%, respectively). Among teenagers who violated restrictions without their parents' knowledge, most reported doing so only once or a few times. Teenagers expressed little concern about detection, although a majority reported driving more carefully to avoid police notice. Neither parents nor teenagers knew much about police enforcement of GDL restrictions. To obtain a sense of the views of law enforcement officers, informal interviews were conducted with 20 officers from five diverse communities and the state highway patrol. These officers were highly supportive of GDL but unfamiliar with many of the specific provisions. Moreover, enforcement of GDL restrictions did not appear to be a high priority. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: There is a need to increase the belief among teens (and parents) that police are enforcing GDL restrictions in their community; law enforcement participation in well-publicized traffic safety enforcement efforts would likely produce this result.     

Degradation of N,N'-dibutylurea (DBU) in soils treated with only DBU and DBU-fortified benlate fungicides

N,N'-dibutylurea (DBU) is a breakdown product of benomyl [methyl 1-(butylcarbamoyl)-2-benzimidazole carbamate], the active ingredient in Benlate fungicides, and has been proposed to cause crop damage after the use of Benlate 50 DF fungicide (DuPont, Wilmington, DE). Our research focused on DBU persistence after application into soil. We assessed DBU persistence on direct application of DBU (carbonyl-(14)C) at two concentrations (0.08 and 0.8 microg DBU kg(-1)) to seven soils and two potting mixes in soil microcosms incubated at various combinations of soil water potential (-0.03 or -0.1 MPa) and temperature (23, 33, 44 degrees C). For two soils at a subset of treatment variables we assessed DBU persistence in the presence of Benlate DF and SP fungicide formulations. Parent compounds, metabolites, and (14)CO(2) were tracked using chromatographic analysis with radioassay and UV detection, liquid scintillation counting, and post-extraction oxidation of the soil. DBU degradation was primarily microbial and for most soil-treatment combinations, half-lives were less than 2 wk. DBU degradation was retarded at the lower soil water potential and enhanced at 33 degrees C. In the presence of the formulation, DBU degradation was slower for one soil type. The longest half-life observed in any case was less than 7 wk; therefore, long-term persistence of DBU applied to soils through a Benlate application is very unlikely.