Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系，选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度，并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明：全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势，耦合协调度集中分布在0.393~0.765，基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素，建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

Occurrence of dissolved PAHs in the Jinsha River (Panzhihua)--upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Southwest China

16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in water samples from the Jinsha River (Panzhihua part), Southwest China. Total dissolved PAH concentrations varied from 21.89 microg l(-1) to 382.8 microg l(-1). It was found that the concentration of PAHs decreased along the flow direction due to the higher density distribution of coal chemical industry in the upstream of our study rivers. The pollution levels in our study area are significantly higher than previously reported values in other waters both in China and other countries. The predominance of benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene was clearly observed in all water samples. On average these two compounds accounted for 98.3% of the total dissolved PAH concentration in water. The results showed the positive correlations among total dissolved PAHs, benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, which suggested that these two predominant PAHs have similar source and environmental behaviors in our study area. When compared with the survey results of organic micropollutants two decades ago, it was found that hydrocarbon pollution both predominated and even increased with the development of coal chemical industry in this area during the past 20 years. The results therefore provide important information on the current contamination status of a key industrial city in China, and points to the need for urgent action to investigate the relationship between the PAH composition and concentration in water from the Jinsha River and the wastewater discharge from coal chemical industry, and to identify the source, transport pathway and fate of PAHs in the area. It should then be necessary to adopt appropriate and instant measures to control the pollution around this area.     

浅谈小型餐饮服务业排污申报登记

简述了小型餐饮服务业的特点，指出排污申报登记制度落实难、废水中各污染物排放量核定难及申报登记表设计欠合理是小型餐饮服务业在排污申报登记中存在的主要问题。提出，应加大宣传力度，进一步提高餐饮服务业业主以及广大公民的环保意识；制定较合理的排污量核算系数，修订申报内容；实行《排污申报登记注册证》制度，强化执法力度，以促进小型餐饮服务业全面实施排污申报登记制度。     

Occurrence and congeners specific of poiychlorinated biphenyls in agricultural soils from Southern Jiangsu, China

A total of 198 agricultural soil samples were collected from Zhangjiagang and Changshu in Southern Jiangsu for analysis of 13 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in order to assess the levels of pollution, sources, area distribution, and potential risk for the environment. All methods were rigorously tested and an adequate quality control was ensured. Only one site had no PCBs residues, and the highest total PCBs concentration in the surface soils was 32.83 ng/g. The average concentration in all the soil samples was 4.13 ng/g, signaling low-level pollution. Tetra-, penta-, and hexa-chlorinated biphenyls were dominant species in soil samples, accounting for more than 75% ofΣPCBs in the soil samples. PCB118 was the most abundant congener in all the samples. The PCB118 was about 20% ofΣPCBs. The soil organic matter content showed only a weak correlation with the levels of all PCB congeners, in which a better correlation was noted for the more volatile lighter PCB congeners than for the heavier homologues. To a certain extent, the sources and land use seemed to influence the levels of PCBs.     

楔横轧模具的铣削加工及其机床设计

根据楔横轧模具孔型及其加工成形的特点,对楔横轧模具大面积大螺距楔形提出了一种简单高效的铣削加工方法,并设计制造了楔横轧轧辊模具孔型加工专用机床——SDM机床。新设计的SDM机床投资小,可以加工直径为φ620 mm～φ1000mm的轧辊模具,加工导程最大可达469 mm,加工周期短,成本低,且大大降低了工人劳动强度。     

锑的淡水水质基准及其对我国水质标准的启示

针对我国锑水生生物水质基准缺乏的问题，收集筛选了锑对淡水水生生物的急性和慢性毒性数据，使用评价因子法、毒性百分数排序法和物种敏感度分布法分别推导我国锑的淡水水质基准，通过综合分析和比较，选择物种敏感度分布法推导的急性和慢性的水质基准值（466.62μg/L和88.71μg/L）作为最终的基准推荐值.通过与国内外现有锑相关水质标准进行比较，提出在我国相关水质标准修订中分别制定保护水生生物和人体健康水质标准的建议，避免水质标准对水生生物的"过保护"问题.     

水霉科真菌在北京地区不同污染水体中的分布和数量变化

对北京地区水霉科真菌在不同污染水体中分布和数量变化的调查研究表明,水霉科游动孢子在水体中的数量随水体污染程度的变化而不同:一般在净水中较少,在轻度污染至中度污染的水体中明显增多,污染加重时逐渐下降,在重污染区明显减少,在近于毒污染的水体中则几乎绝迹.可见水霉科真菌在不同污染水体中的分布和数量变化具有一定的规律性,将其用作对水体进行综合评价的一项生物指标的可行性值得进一步研究.     

金属铁还原降解2,4-二硝基甲苯的实验研究

研究了金属铁对2,4-二硝基甲苯(2,4-DNT)的还原降解情况.实验结果表明,2,4-DNT的还原降解与溶液初始pH值、初始浓度和溶解氧等因素有关.氯离子能消除金属铁的钝化现象.金属铁表面附载的铜对2,4-DNT的还原降解具有催化作用.     

利用工业废弃物生产聚合硫酸铁的研究进展

综述了利用工业废弃物生产无机高分子絮凝剂聚合硫酸铁的方法,指出了以钛白副产硫酸亚铁、含铁矿石废渣、炼钢烟尘、废硫酸、烟气中二氧化硫等为原料生产聚合硫酸铁的工艺特点和适用性.对目前聚合硫酸铁生产中存在的问题和发展方向提出了建议.