Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

Winter survival of microbial contaminants in soil:An in situ verification

The aim of the research was to evaluate, at site scale, the influence of freezing and freeze/thaw cycles on the survival of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci in soil, in a climate change perspective. Before the winter period and during grazing, viable cells of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci were detected only in the first 10 cm below ground, while,after the winter period and before the new seasonal grazing, a lower number of viable cells of both faecal indicators was detected only in some of the investigated soil profiles, and within the first 5 cm. Taking into consideration the results of specific investigations, we hypothesise that the non-uniform spatial distribution of grass roots within the studied soil can play an important role in influencing this phenomenon, while several abiotic factors do not play any significant role. Taking into account the local trend in the increase of air temperature, a different distribution of microbial pollution over time is expected in spring waters, in future climate scenarios. The progressive increase in air temperature will cause a progressive decrease in freeze/thaw cycles at higher altitudes, minimising cold shocks on microbial cells, and causing spring water pollution also during winter.     

三叶鬼针草生物量分配与化感作用对大气温度升高的响应

全球气候变暖已经成为不容置疑的事实,同时外来入侵植物对入侵地的生态环境造成严重的危害,外来入侵植物可能对温度升高做出积极地响应。文章研究了不同温度(22、26和30℃)处理对入侵植物三叶鬼针草(Bidens pilosa L.)种子萌发、幼苗生物量分配及化感作用的影响,探讨三叶鬼针草对全球气候变暖的响应策略。结果表明;温度为22和26℃比30℃有利于三叶鬼针草种子的萌发。温度升高显著增加三叶鬼针草的株高、生物量和叶面积,三叶鬼针草幼苗增加对茎和叶的生物量投资。同时相同浓度的三叶鬼针草水浸提液对马唐(Digitaria sanguinalis(L.)Scop)和牛筋草(Eleusine indica(L.)Gaertn)的化感作用随着温度升高而增强。研究表明:温度升高促进了三叶鬼针草的生长,改变生物量分配模式同时增强了对受体植物的化感作用。温度升高可能是促进三叶鬼针草入侵的生态环境因子之一,未来全球气温变暖可能使其入侵加剧。     

铜尾矿区9种优势植物体内重金属和氮磷含量研究

以杨山冲铜尾矿废弃地人工覆土上生长的9种优势植物为研究对象,探讨不同植物对尾矿基质中重金属和氮磷的吸收特性以及与基质理化性质之间的关联。土壤样品采集时沿基质垂直方向分为4层：A层（覆土层0~5 cm）、B层（覆土层5~20 cm）、C层（尾砂层20~25 cm）、D层（尾砂层25~40 cm）,植物样品采集时草本植物分地上和地下2部分、木本植物分根、茎和叶3部分采集。结果表明：随着9种植物生长,A层和B层基质理化性质得到明显的改善。主要表现在A层中w（总氮）、w（氨氮）、w（硝氮）、w（有效磷）和w（有机质）显著高于C、D层（P〈0.05）,B层中w（有效态Cu）、w（有效态Zn）显著低于A、C、D层（P〈0.05）。9种优势植物对Cu、Pb、Zn的吸收和积累能力具有明显差异性,其中草本植物以根系积累为主,木本植物以叶片积累为主。草本植物对尾矿基质表现出较强的适应性和耐性,其中毛叶荩草（Arthraxon prionodes）根系中Cu、Pb、Zn的富集量均最大,耐性表现最突出,是较为理想的铜尾矿基质的修复物种。另外,本研究还发现,9种植物体内氮磷质量分数也各不相同,其中木本植物叶中氮磷质量分数均大于根、茎。木本植物体内w（总氮）与w（总磷）、w（Cu）、w（Zn）相关性较好,草本植物体内w（Cu）、w（Pb）、w（Zn）之间相关性较好,表明彼此之间存在一定的促进作用。     

环境样品中汞形态分析技术的进展

汞的毒性、环境行为、生物有效性不仅跟其浓度有关,还决定于其化学形态,因此汞的形态分析在环境科学中具有重要意义。样品前处理几乎是汞形态分析研究中不可或缺的步骤,而色谱和光谱/质谱联用技术是目前普遍采用的分离检测方法。文章对近十年来这些方面的研究进展进行了综述,主要包括样品的前处理方法如酸/碱溶剂萃取、微波辅助萃取、固相萃取、固相微萃取、单滴微萃取、分散液液微萃取等,以及色谱(液相色谱、气相色谱)和毛细管电泳与光谱/质谱(紫外可见光谱、原子吸收光谱、原子荧光光谱、等离子体质谱等)的联用技术在汞化合物形态分析中的应用情况。最后提出今后应重点研究建立高效、简便的前处理方法,发展高分离度、高灵敏度、高速度的分离检测联用技术,以便更好地对汞的形态进行分析监测。     

2010年渤海海冰灾害特征分析

2010年中国遭遇到近30年来最严重的海冰冰情,因灾直接经济损失高达63.18亿元,占全年海洋灾害总经济损失的47.6%——海冰成为中国2010年海洋灾害中的主要灾种之一。基于区域灾害系统论,运用气象数据、MODIS图像和社会经济统计等资料,对2010年渤海海冰灾害的特征进行了初步分析。结果显示,以莱州湾结冰范围扩大为代表的渤海海冰分布变化是致灾因子区域危险性增大的主要特征,环渤海地区海水养殖面积和产量的增加是承灾体暴露性增大的主要特征,而总体灾情严重则是二者的综合结果。     

贵州省农业生态安全性评价

为了对贵州省农业生态安全的区域分布现状进行研究,加强和重视农业生态安全的定量评价,给贵州省农业自然灾害风险管理提供定量参考,根据贵州省农业生态的特点,设计了贵州省农业生态安全评价指标体系。运用主观评价与客观评价相互综合的评价分析方法,对贵州省各县(市)的农业生态安全状况进行了综合评价。将贵州省农业生态安全划分为四个等级,相对低安全区主要分布在贵州西部高海拔地区,相对较安全区主要分布在贵州东部部分区域。得到了贵州省农业生态安全区划图,并分析了影响贵州农业生态安全的主要原因。     

基于GIS的滑坡灾害风险空间预测

滑坡灾害风险评价是一个包含有滑坡危险性评价和承灾体易损性评价的体系,对滑坡危险性进行了空间预测与区划,并开展了区域承灾体易损性的区划与评价。结合风险评价的基本要求,进行了研究区滑坡灾害的风险区划,将其划分为极高、高、中、低与极低风险区。针对研究区经济发展水平及政府防灾力度,提出了适合研究区的可接受风险标准与管理对策。     

城市高温灾害性天气影响分析与危害评估——以长春市为例

以长春市1951-2008年的气象资料为基础,分析了长春市高温灾害性天气的时空分布特征及气温变暖趋势,总结了长春市温度变化与城市人口数量、GDP及供电量之间的关系,最终建立了长春市高温灾害性天气影响及危害评估的指标体系。     

华南滨海小流域降雨入渗对地下水的补给分析

以华南滨海小流域——中山大学滨海水循环试验基地(试验基地)作为研究区,在对该流域地下水和雨水分别进行采样、实验分析的基础上,利用氯量平衡法(CMB)与地下水动态法计算了该流域的降雨入渗补给系数与给水度。研究发现,试验基地地下水主要受降雨补给,地下水埋深在雨季(4—9月)、旱季(10—3月)的变动范围大致为0～1.5 m与0～0.5 m。根据CMB计算结果,补给区、中间区雨季降雨入渗补给系数分别为旱季的1.3～1.6倍和1.3～2.0倍,且补给区大于中间区(M5井除外)。利用地下水动态法计算次降雨入渗补给系数,所得雨季、旱季的均值(7.6%和4.6%)与CMB计算结果(7.7%和5.3%)较为接近。给水度、雨强与入渗补给系数均存在一定的线性关系。将地下水埋深分别与降雨入渗补给量及潜水蒸发量进行多项式拟合对比,发现降雨入渗对地下水的最大入渗补给埋深约为2.3 m,当埋深为3.1 m时,地下水可获得最大净补给量。