Hidden Markov models for circular and linear-circular time series

We introduce a new class of circular time series based on hidden Markov models. These are compared with existing models, their properties are outlined and issues relating to parameter estimation are discussed. The new models conveniently describe multi-modal circular time series as dependent mixtures of circular distributions. Two examples from biology and meteorology are used to illustrate the theory. Finally, we introduce a hidden Markov model for bivariate linear-circular time series and use it to describe larval movement of the fly Drosophila. Received: September 2003 / Revised: March 2004     

Two-stage chemical fractionation method for the analysis of elements and non-volatile inorganic ions in PM10 samples: Application to ambient samples collected in Rome (Italy)

A two-stage micro-analytical scheme for the determination of metals and ions in atmospheric particulate matter collected on only one Teflon filter was developed. In the first stage the collected particles are chemically fractionated for their solubility in a pH-buffered extracting solution; in the second stage the residue is mineralised. The major non-volatile inorganic ions (Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻, Na⁺, NH₄⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺) are determined in the first fraction by ion-chromatography (IC), while metals and metalloids (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Ni, Pb, S, Sb, Se, Si, Ti, V, Zn) are determined in both the acetate extractable and the mineralised residual fractions by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES).The procedure was applied to ambient 24-h PM₁₀ samples collected on Teflon filters during two field campaigns carried out at two sites in the area of Rome (Italy). The variations in the chemical composition of the collected particles during the two periods were interpreted in the light of the dilution properties of the lower atmosphere and of the back-trajectories of the air masses. The difference in the results between the two locations was interpreted in the light of their proximity to the emission sources. It was found that the acetate extractable and the mineralised residual fraction of some metals exhibit a different temporal pattern, suggesting the existence of different emission sources of the two fractions.     

Zooplankton responses to hydrological and trophic variability in a Mediterranean coastal ecosystem (Lesina Lagoon,South Adriatic Sea)

Spatial and temporal variability in zooplankton was studied at eight stations located in the Lesina Lagoon (South Adriatic Sea) Salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a (in the lagoon) at these stations were also assessed. The zooplankton community was characterised by clear seasonal oscillations and mostly represented by copepods and their larvae. The dominant copepod species were Calanipeda aquaedulcis and Acartia tonsa, which exhibited spatial–temporal segregation in the lagoon. C. aquaedulcis copepodites seemed to be better adapted to oligotrophic and oligohaline conditions compared with the A. tonsa population. The invasive species A. tonsa has completely replaced the formerly abundant Acartia margalefi. A positive correlation was found between abundances, total species numbers and trophic state. An increasing abundance trend was shown from the lagoon towards the sea. The highest diversity indices were recorded at the two channel inlets, during high tide due to the absence of a clear dominance of one or more coastal species and the co-occurrence of species of lagoon and marine origin.     

A flux-based assessment of the effects of ozone on foliar injury, photosynthesis, and yield of bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L. cv. Borlotto Nano Lingua di Fuoco) in open-top chambers

Stomatal ozone uptake, determined with the Jarvis' approach, was related to photosynthetic efficiency assessed by chlorophyll fluorescence and reflectance measurements in open-top chamber experiments on Phaseolus vulgaris. The effects of O₃ exposure were also evaluated in terms of visible and microscopical leaf injury and plant productivity. Results showed that microscopical leaf symptoms, assessed as cell death and H₂O₂ accumulation, preceded by 3-4 days the appearance of visible symptoms. An effective dose of ozone stomatal flux for visible leaf damages was found around 1.33 mmol O₃ m⁻². Significant linear dose-response relationships were obtained between accumulated fluxes and optical indices (PRI, NDI, ΔF/F_m^′). The negative effects on photosynthesis reduced plant productivity, affecting the number of pods and seeds, but not seed weight. These results, besides contributing to the development of a flux-based ozone risk assessment for crops in Europe, highlight the potentiality of reflectance measurements for the early detection of ozone stress.     

Evaluation of Direct-Oxidative DNA Damage on Human Lung Epithelial Cells Exposed to Urban Airborne Particulate Matter

Airborne particulate matter (PM) extracts were investigated for their content of organic compounds and for the direct and oxidative DNA damage induced on lung epithelial cells A549. PM₁₀ was seasonally collected at two monitoring sites (Stations 1 and 2), characterized by different traffic loads. The cells were exposed for 30 min to extracts of PM₁₀ diluted at 0.025%, 0.05%, and 0.1% for summer samples, and at 0.05%, 0.1%, and 0.15% for winter samples. Oxidative and direct DNA damage were evaluated by formamidopyrimidine glycosylase (fpg) comet assay analyzing tail moment (TM) values from fpg-enzyme-treated cells (TMenz) and enzyme untreated cells (TM) respectively and by comet percentage analysis. Measurements relating to Station 2 showed higher levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and their methyl-(methyl-PAHs) and nitro-(nitro-PAHs) derivatives in both the seasons. Nitro-PAH concentrations were higher in summer than in winter at both the stations. We found a significant increase of comet percentages at the highest dose of extract from both stations in summer and from Station 2 in winter. The TM and TMenz values relative to the summer sampling showed an early oxidative DNA damage induction also followed by direct DNA damage more evident at Station 2, that seems to correlate with the presence of higher nitro-PAH concentrations during the warm season. At both monitoring stations, the results from winter sampling campaign showed a direct DNA damage induction at 0.1% of extract and oxidative-direct DNA damage at the highest dose (0.15%).     

TEQ(S) and body burden for PCDDs, PCDFs, and dioxin-like PCBs in human adipose tissue

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), mono-ortho and non-ortho polychlorinated biphenyls (dioxin-like PCBs) were determined in samples of human fat tissue from nine Italian obese patients. The toxicity equivalent (TEQ) values ranged from 9 to 25pgTEQg(-1) lipid (WHO-TEF values, 2005 [Van den Berg, M., Birnbaum, L.S., Denison, M., De Vito, M., Farland, W., Feeley, M., Fiedler, H., Hakansson, H., Hanberg, A., Haws, L., Rose, M., Safe, S., Schrenk, D., Tohyama, C., Tritscher, A., Tuomisto, J., Tysklind, M., Walker, N., Peterson, R.E., 2006. The 2005 World Health Organization reevaluation of human and mammalian Toxic Equivalency Factors for dioxins and dioxin-like compounds. Toxicol. Sci. 93, 223-241]), the contribution of dioxin-like PCBs was more than 30% of the total TEQ values. The obese body burdens varied from 6 to 11ngTEQkg(-1) body weight (BW), exceeding the estimated steady-state body burden 5ngTEQkg(-1) BW, based on lipid adjusted serum concentrations from several populations in the mid-1990s, calculated in the risk assessment US EPA document.     

A study on PCB, PCDD/PCDF industrial contamination in a mixed urban-agricultural area significantly affecting the food chain and the human exposure. Part I: soil and feed

This study deals with a PCB, PCDD and PCDF contamination in Brescia, a city in the North-West of Italy, affecting an area with about 11000 inhabitants. The area is close to an industrial plant that produced, in total, some 31,000 ton of PCB. A relevant part of the polluted area is agricultural soil, where cattle were fed with polluted forage and farmers were consuming their own products, so that contamination led eventually to human exposure. Total levels of PCDD/Fs varied from 8 to 592 pgTE(WHO)/g for soil samples and when the dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs) are included, the levels varied from 14.6 to 1033.7 pgTE(WHO)/g. In several cases, the legal limit was exceeded by more than one order of magnitude, with the highest contamination in some agricultural areas and in the surrounding zones. For the forage samples, total levels of PCDD/Fs varied from 0.29 to 2.04 pgTE(WHO)/g and, when dl-PCBs are included, this range increased from 2.04 to 4.75 pgTE(WHO)/g. PCB contamination of the forage through vapor condensation seemed to be relevant. The toxic contribution of dl-PCBs is always relevant and must be considered for risk management. The main component of the contamination source is probably a heavy PCB mixture, such as Aroclor 1262. The study dealt generally with the contamination transfer of PCBs, PCDDs and PCDFs from soil up to humans across the food chain. Results on soils and forages are shown, while measurements concerning the contamination of the animals fed with contaminated forage, and the exposure of the farmers (through human serum analyses), as compared to general population, will be reported in a dedicated paper.     

Poliovirus and Other Enteroviruses from Environmental Surveillance in Italy, 2009–2015

Within the initiatives for poliomyelitis eradication by WHO, Italy activated an environmental surveillance (ES) in 2005. ES complements clinical Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) surveillance for possible polio cases, detects poliovirus circulation in environmental sewage, and is used to monitor transmission in communities. In addition to polioviruses, the analyses comprised: (i) the monitoring of the presence of non-polio enteroviruses in sewage samples and (ii) the temporal and geographical distribution of the detected viruses. From 2009 to 2015, 2880 sewage samples were collected from eight cities participating in the surveillance. Overall, 1479 samples resulted positive for enteroviruses. No wild-type polioviruses were found, although four Sabin-like polioviruses were detected. The low degree of mutation found in the genomes of these four isolates suggests that these viruses have had a limited circulation in the population. All non-polio enteroviruses belonged to species B and the most frequent serotype was CV-B5, followed by CV-B4, E-11, E-6, E-7, CV-B3, and CV-B2. Variations in the frequency of different serotypes were also observed in different seasons and/or Italian areas. Environmental surveillance in Italy, as part of the ‘WHO global polio eradication program’, is a powerful tool to augment the polio surveillance and to investigate the silent circulation or the re-emergence of enteroviruses in the population.