“Applicability of the t-Test for Detecting Trends in Water Quality Variables,” by Robert H. Montgomery and Jim C. Loftis2

Montgomery and Loftis (1987) have listed several situations for which the t-test does not accurately reproduce Type I errors, and should therefore be avoided. Characteristics common to water quality data (skewness or other non-normality, presence of outliers and less-thans) also reduce the power of the t-test, in relation to nonparametric alternatives. Thus if one is interested in reaching correct decisions when trends or differences exist, and not just when they do not, the t-test should not be considered “robust” (in the sense of being generally applicable) when its assumptions are violated. Further, t-tests assume that differences in means are relevant (the mean is a good measure of central tendency), and that data groups differ by some additive amount. When all of these assumptions are recognized, and in light of the availability of truly robust and comparatively powerful non-parametric alternatives, we believe there is little applicability of the t-test for detecting trends or differences in water quality variables.     

A novel role of computers in the natural products field

We describe several computer programs developed in our laboratory as aids in the determination of unknown molecular structures. These programs include CONGEN [1], for determination of all plausible structural candidates; REACT [2, 3], for simulation of sequences of chemical reactions; and STRUCC, for evaluating candidates and planning new experiments. We stress the importance of symbiosis between chemist and computer, the combination building on their respective strengths to increase the speed and accuracy of structural assignments.     

Phase-in of nonpoint sources in a transferable discharge permit system for water quality management: setting permit prices

The composite market design is a proposal for a transferable discharge permit system that specifically includes agricultural non-point-source dischargers and addresses both property rights and transaction cost problems. The first step to implementation of a composite market scheme is the estimation of a supply curve for abatement measures in the catchment area. Estimation is performed by combining costs with modeled loss reductions from selected best management practices and then using this information to estimate the supply curve for abatement, which in turn can then be used to set permit prices. The R?nne? catchment in southern Sweden is used as a pilot study area for making this type of estimate. Costs for existing measures that reduce nutrient losses from farmland (catch crops and spring planting) are based on existing programs financed by the Swedish Agricultural Board. A set of supply curves is calculated for these measures using retention estimates for seven subcatchments and three soil types in the area. Although existing information is sufficient to calculate partial supply curves and may be used to set permit prices, additional measures should be included as well as an increased number of variables for differentiating site specific reduction costs.     

Near-field dispersion modeling for regulatory applications

This paper evaluates the application of dispersion models to estimate near-field pollutant concentrations in two case studies. The Industrial Source Complex Short-Term Model (ISCST3) was evaluated with hexavalent chromium measurements collected within 100 m of two facilities in Barrio Logan, San Diego, CA. ISCST3 provided reasonable estimates for higher pollutant concentrations but underestimated lower concentrations. To understand the observed distribution of concentrations in Barrio Logan, a recently conducted tracer experiment was analyzed. The tracer, sulfur hexafluoride, was released at ambient temperature from an urban facility at the University of California at Riverside, and concentrations were measured within 20 m of the source. Modeling results indicated that Industrial Source Complex-Plume Rise Model Enhancement and American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model-Plume Rise Model Enhancement overestimated high concentrations and underestimated low concentrations. A diagnostic study with a simple Gaussian dispersion model that incorporated site-specific meteorology was used to evaluate model results. This study found that incorporating lateral meandering for nonbuoyant urban plumes in Gaussian dispersion models could improve concentration estimates even when downwash is not considered. Incorporating a meandering component in ISCST3 resulted in improvements in estimating hexavalent chromium concentrations in Barrio Logan. Credible near-source concentration estimates depend on accurate characterization of emissions, onsite micrometeorology, and a method to account for lateral meandering in the near field.     

Weekday/weekend ozone differences: what can we learn from them?

A national analysis of weekday/weekend ozone (O3) differences demonstrates significant variation across the country. Weekend 1-hr or 8-hr maximum O3 varies from 15% lower than weekday levels to 30% higher. The weekend O3 increases are primarily found in and around large coastal cities in California and large cities in the Midwest and Northeast Corridor. Both the average and the 95th percentile of the daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima exhibit the same general pattern. Many sites that have elevated O3 also have higher O3 on weekends even though traffic and O3 precursor levels are substantially reduced on weekends. Detailed studies of this phenomenon indicate that the primary cause of the higher O3 on weekends is the reduction in oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions on weekends in a volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemical regime. In contrast, the lower O3 on weekends in other locations is probably a result of NOx reductions in a NOx-limited regime. The NOx reduction explanation is supported by a wide range of ambient analyses and several photochemical modeling studies. Changes in the timing and location of emissions and meteorological factors play smaller roles in weekend O3 behavior. Weekday/weekend temperature differences do not explain the weekend effect but may modify it.     

A new environmental chamber for evaluation of gas-phase chemical mechanisms and secondary aerosol formation

A new state-of-the-art indoor environmental chamber facility for the study of atmospheric processes leading to the formation of ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) has been constructed and characterized. The chamber is designed for atmospheric chemical mechanism evaluation at low reactant concentrations under well-controlled environmental conditions. It consists of two collapsible 90 m³ FEP Teflon film reactors on pressure-controlled moveable frameworks inside a temperature-controlled enclosure flushed with purified air. Solar radiation is simulated with either a 200 kW Argon arc lamp or multiple blacklamps. Results of initial characterization experiments, all carried out at 300–305 K under dry conditions, concerning NO_x and formaldehyde offgasing, radical sources, particle loss rates, and background PM formation are described. Results of initial single organic–NO_x and simplified ambient surrogate–NO_x experiments to demonstrate the utility of the facility for mechanism evaluation under low NO_x conditions are summarized and compared with the predictions of the SAPRC-99 chemical mechanism. Overall, the results of the initial characterization and evaluation indicate that this new environmental chamber can provide high quality mechanism evaluation data for experiments with NO_x levels as low as 2 ppb, though the results indicate some problems with the gas-phase mechanism that need further study. Initial evaluation experiments for SOA formation, also carried out under dry conditions, indicate that the chamber can provide high quality secondary aerosol formation data at relatively low hydrocarbon concentrations.     

Comparative toxicity of Solvent Yellow 33 [2-(2′-quinolinyl)-1,3-indandione] and Solvent Green 3 (1,4-di-p-toluidinoanthraquinone) dyes to freshwater organisms

Solvent Yellow 33 and a Solvent Green 3 mixture (30:70 mixture of Solvent Yellow 33 and Solvent Green 3) were not acutely toxic to seven of nine freshwater species when tested at the solubility limits of the dyes in freshwater. A solubility limit solution of the Solvent Green 3 mixture killed 50% of the rainbow trout tested for 96 h but was non-toxic when diluted by 50%. Both dyes caused a reduction in green algal growth at solubility limits. The Solvent Green 3 mixture was the most detrimental causing a 98–99% reduction in growth after 5 days of exposure.