A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Toxicity of octameric elemental sulphur in aquatic sediments

The proportions of elemental sulphur species in sediment from a contaminated area and a reference sediment sample were compared with the acute toxicity measured in short-term toxicity tests. Octameric elemental sulphur was separated into three operationally defined fractions. Here we show that octameric elemental sulphur contributes to the acute toxicity measured by bioluminescence inhibition. Our findings show that only a small part of extractable elemental sulphur was effective during exposure to the test organisms. A firmly bound fraction of sulphur was found in a contaminated sediment. This information has to be taken into account while interpreting the acute sediment toxicity.     

Neocembrene A, a major component of the trail-following pheromone in the genus Prorhinotermes (Insecta, Isoptera, Rhinotermitidae)

Summary. The diterpene neocembrene A or (1E,5E,9E,12R)-1,5,9-trimethyl-12-(1-methylethenyl)-1,5,9-cyclotetradecatriene, known as the trail-following pheromone of the advanced Termitidae Nasutitermitinae Nasutitermes exitiosus and Trinervitermes bettonianus, has been identified after SPME-GC/MS as the major component of the trail-following pheromone of the Rhinotermitidae Prorhinotermitinae, Prorhinotermes canalifrons and P. simplex. In all the other Rhinotermitidae studied until now, the major component of their trail pheromones is dodecatrienol ((3Z,6Z,8E)-dodeca-3,6,8-trien-1-ol). This biochemical data further add to the anatomical and molecular characteristics that give a special status to the taxon Prorhinotermes among Rhinotermitidae. In Prorhinotermes canalifrons and P. simplex, neocembrene A was the only secretory compound specific to the sternal gland surface that could be detected after SPME. It elicited orientation as well as recruitment behavioral effects. However, the comparison of the respective biological activities triggered by neocembrene A and by sternal gland secretion suggests that minor components of the latter are acting in synergy with neocembrene A.     

Identification and quantitation of dinaphthylsulfones in particulate matter of the Elbe river,Germany. Part VI of organic compounds as contaminants of the Elbe river and its tributaries

Gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric (GC/MS) analysis of particulate matter of the Elbe river and its tributaries Havel, Spree and Mulde revealed a group of three dinaphthylsulfone isomers as sedimentary and suspended particulate matter (SPM) contaminants. The mass spectra of dinaphthylsulfones are characterized by the molecular ion (m/z 318), and the naphthyl fragment ion m/z 127. Losses of HSO(2) and C(10)H(7)O from the molecular ion lead to different mass spectra for each isomer. The gas phase infrared spectra exhibit isomer specific bands in the spectral region between 900 and 700 wave numbers. A synthetic mixture of dinaphthylsulfones was used for isomer identification and the assignment of the gas chromatographic retention behaviour of the dinaphthylsulfone isomers. Quantitative GC/MS analysis of dinaphthylsulfones in 44 sediment and SPM samples provided comprehensive information on the overall distribution and distinct sources of dinaphthylsulfones in the Elbe river drainage system. The results indicate emissions of these compounds over prolonged times and their environmental stability in anaerobic sediments.     

Temporal variation of trace metal geochemistry in floodplain lake sediment subject to dynamic hydrological conditions

Climate change and land use may significantly influence metal cycling in dynamic river systems. We studied temporal variation of sediment characteristics in a floodplain lake, including concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, acid volatile sulfide and trace metals. The sampling period included a severe winter inundation and a dramatic water level drop during summer. Temporal changes were interpreted using multivariate analysis and chemical equilibrium calculations. Metal concentrations in sediment increased with depth, indicating a gradual improvement of sediment quality. In contrast, dissolved metal concentrations were highest in top layers due to mobilization from oxyhydroxides and precipitation with sulfides in deeper layers. Inundation had a mobilizing effect as it stimulated resuspension and oxygenation of sediment top layers. Water table lowering combined with organic matter decomposition led to immobilization due to sulfide formation. The chemistry of the sediments was consistent with model calculations, especially for macro-elements. The results illustrate the importance of seasonality for metal risk assessment.     

Formation of polychlorobiphenyls in silicone rubber

In silicone rubber crosslinked with bis(2,4-dichlorobenzoyl) peroxide (DCBP) as initiator about 0.1% of DCBP is converted into polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs). The PCB content in silicone rubber determined by high resolution gas chromatography (HRGC) after its destruction by HF is around 10 mg/kg. 29 PCB congeners were detected. Instead of the expected PCB-47, lower chlorinated congeners are predominant. Some possible pathways of their origin are presented.     

Two-dimensional gap analysis: a tool for efficient conservation planning and biodiversity policy implementation

The maintenance of biodiversity by securing representative and well-connected habitat networks in managed landscapes requires a wise combination of protection, management, and restoration of habitats at several scales. We suggest that the integration of natural and social sciences in the form of "Two-dimensional gap analysis" is an efficient tool for the implementation of biodiversity policies. The tool links biologically relevant "horizontal" ecological issues with "vertical" issues related to institutions and other societal issues. Using forest biodiversity as an example, we illustrate how one can combine ecological and institutional aspects of biodiversity conservation, thus facilitating environmentally sustainable regional development. In particular, we use regional gap analysis for identification of focal forest types, habitat modelling for ascertaining the functional connectivity of "green infrastructures", as tools for the horizontal gap analysis. For the vertical dimension we suggest how the social sciences can be used for assessing the success in the implementation of biodiversity policies in real landscapes by identifying institutional obstacles while implementing policies. We argue that this interdisciplinary approach could be applied in a whole range of other environments including other terrestrial biota and aquatic ecosystems where functional habitat connectivity, nonlinear response to habitat loss and a multitude of economic and social interests co-occur in the same landscape.     

Practical considerations for addressing uncertainties in monitoring bulk deposition

The assessment of the deposition of both wet (rain and cloud) and dry sedimenting particles is a prerequisite for estimating element fluxes in ecosystem research. Many nations and institutions operate deposition networks using different types of sampler. However, these samplers have rarely been characterized with respect to their sink properties. Major errors in assessing bulk deposition can result from poor sampling properties and defective sampling strategies. Relevant properties are: sampler geometry and material, in particular the shape of the rim; sink properties for gases and aerosols; and microbial transformations of the collected samples. An adequate number of replicates allows the identification of samples which are contaminated, in particular by bird droppings. The paper discusses physical and chemical properties of the samplers themselves. The dependence of measurement accuracy on the number of replicates and the sampling area exposed is discussed. Recommendations are given for sampling strategies, and for making corrections and substitution of missing data.     

Nonlinearities in source receptor relationships for sulfur and nitrogen compounds

The relationship between emissions and deposition of air pollutants, both spatially and in time forms an important focus for science and for policy makers. In practice, this relationship may become nonlinear if the underlying processes change with time, or in space. Nonlinearities may also appear due to errors in emission or deposition data, and careful scrutiny of both data sources and their relationship provides a means of picking up such deficiencies. Nonlinearities in source receptor relationships for sulfur and nitrogen compounds in Europe have been identified in measurement data for the UK. In the case of sulfur, the dry deposition process has been shown to be strongly influenced by ambient concentrations of NH3, leading to substantial increases in deposition rate as SO2 concentrations decline and the ratio SO2/NH3 decreases. The field evidence extends to measurements over three different surfaces in three countries across Europe. A mechanistic understanding of the cause of this nonlinearity has been provided. Apparent nonlinearities also exist in the sulfur deposition field through the influence of shipping emissions. The effect is clear at west coast locations, where during a period in which land-based sulfur emissions declined by 50%, no significant decline in concentrations of SO(2-) in precipitation were observed. The sites affected are primarily the coastal regions of southwestern UK, where shipping sources contribute a substantial fraction of the deposited sulfur, but the effect is not detectable elsewhere. Full quantification of the spatially disaggregated emission and their changes in time will eliminate this apparent nonlinearity in the source-receptor data. For oxidized nitrogen emission and deposition in the UK, there is strong evidence of nonlinearity in the source-receptor relationship. The concentrations and deposition of NO(3-) in precipitation have declined little following a reduction in emissions of 45% during the period 1987 to 2001. The data imply a significant decrease in the average transport distance for oxidized nitrogen and most probably an increase in the average oxidation rate. However, the net effect of changes in aerosol chemistry due to changes in sulfur emissions and less competition for the main oxidants as a consequence of reductions in sulfur emission have not been separated. A quantitative explanation of the cause of this nonlinearity is lacking and the effects are therefore identified as an important uncertainty for the development of further protocols to control acidification, eutrophication and photochemical oxidants in Europe.