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Catastrophe theory to assess water security and adaptation strategy in the context of environmental change 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Wang Xiao-jun Zhang Jian-yun Shamsuddin Shahid Xia Xing-hui He Rui-min Shang Man-ting 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2014,19(4):463-477
Economic development, population growth, urbanization and climate change have led to an increasing water shortage across the globe. Ensuring water security under changing environment will be the greatest challenge for water resources managers in near future. In this paper, catastrophe theory based multi-criteria evaluation model has been proposed to assess water security under different management strategies to recommend the best water management strategy to achieve water security in the context of global environmental change. The assessment model involves future scenarios of climate change, population growth and economic development. Total 16 indicators related to climate, socio-economy and water availability and consumption have been proposed to measure water security under three management strategies viz. business-as-usual, water demand management and water supply management. The model has been applied to Yulin city of North West China to assess water security as well as to identify the water management strategy under changing environment. The results show that under business-as-usual situation the water shortage rate will reach up to 44 % by the year 2020 and up to 70 % by the year 2030 in Yulin. Water supply is required to increase by 41 % to meet the water demand under supply management strategy which is beyond the safe baseline rate. The study reveals that water demand management can reduce the gap between water supply and demand to a reasonable amount and therefore, can be considered as the most effective approach for adapting with environment change. 相似文献
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将强度折减法引入到隧道围岩安全评价中,结合"浅埋暗挖快速施工双线小间距隧道、盾构下穿立交结构隧道和结构面含有节理、不规则裂隙的山体公路隧道"等工程实例,借助材料真实破坏分析软件RFPA-2D,建立每个强度折减系数下的有限元模型。模型采用了黏弹性人工边界来消除边界条件对计算精度的影响,并借助随机介质理论实现了围岩细观结构单元的非均值性和随机分布的缺陷,揭示了不同工况下隧道围岩的动态渐进破坏过程、基元相变损伤演变机理和岩体结构面破坏特征,认为隧道围岩的宏观破坏是由岩体非线性材料细观单元的非均值性造成的,计算结果借助不同折减步中裂纹发展趋势和单元破坏的数量判断隧道围岩是否失稳破坏,并计算出具有安全储备意义上的安全系数。同时,结合ABAQUS和RFPA-2D两种不同有限元模型,对比分析了随机介质理论和连续介质理论结合强度折减法在隧道围岩稳定性评价中的差异。 相似文献
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To assess the responses of the soil microbial community to chronic ozone (O3), wheat seedlings (Triticum aestivum Linn.) were planted in the field and exposed to elevated O3 (eO3) concentration. Three treatments were employed: (1) Control treatment (CK), AOT40 = 0; (2) O3-1, AOT40 = 1.59 ppm•h; (3) O3-2, AOT40 = 9.17 ppm•h. Soil samples were collected for the assessment of microbial biomass C, community-level physiological profiles (CLPPs), and phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs). EO3 concentration significantly reduced soil microbial carbon and changed microbial CLPPs in rhizosphere soil, but not in non-rhizosphere soil. The results of the PLFAs showed that eO3 concentrations had significant effects on soil community structure in both rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soils. The relative abundances of fungal and actinomycetous indicator PLFAs decreased in both rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soils, while those of bacterial PLFAs increased. Thus the results proved that eO3 concentration significantly changed the soil microbial community function and composition, which would influence the soil nutrient supply and carbon dynamics under O3 exposure. 相似文献
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Ozone (O3) is an important atmospheric oxidant. Black carbon (BC) particles released into the atmosphere undergo an aging process via O3 oxidation. O3-aged BC particles may change their uptake ability toward trace reducing gases such as SO2 in the atmosphere, leading to different environmental and health effects. In this paper, the heterogeneous reaction process between O3-aged BC and SO2 was explored via in-situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS). Combined with ion chromatography (IC), DRIFTS was used to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the sulfate product. The results showed that O3-aged BC had stronger SO2 oxidation ability than fresh BC, and the reactive species/sites generated on the surface had an important role in the oxidation of SO2. Relative humidity or 254 nm UV (ultraviolet) light illumination enhanced the oxidation uptake of SO2 on O3-aged BC. The oxidation potentials of the BC particles were detected via dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. The DTT activity over BC was decreased in the process of SO2 reduction, with the consumption of oxidative active sites. 相似文献
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中国是世界上受海冰危害严重的国家之一,历史上曾发生过多次严重海冰灾害,造成重大损失。根据我国结冰海区海冰灾害风险的自然过程、社会经济状况和成灾机制,综合考虑致灾因子危险性、承灾体分类、分布及脆弱性以及防灾减灾能力等因素,对海冰灾害发生的可能性及其不确定性等进行综合分析,提出了开展海冰灾害风险评估和区划的理论依据,同时给出了利用致灾因子指标体系对海冰灾害风险进行评估和区划的具体方法。 相似文献
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Gabriela Scheibel Cassol Chii Shang Juan Li Li Ling Xin Yang Ran Yin 《环境科学学报(英文版)》2022,34(7):119-128
Drinking water utilities are interested in upgrading their treatment facilities to enhance micropollutant removal and byproduct control. Pre-oxidation by chlorine dioxide (ClO2) followed by coagulation-flocculation-sedimentation and advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) is one of the promising solutions. However, the chlorite (ClO2–) formed from the ClO2 pre-oxidation stage cannot be removed by the conventional coagulation process using aluminum sulfate. ClO2– negatively affects the post-UV/chlorine process due to its strong radical scavenging effect, and it also enhances the formation of chlorate (ClO3–). In this study, dosing micromolar-level ferrous iron (Fe(II)) into aluminum-based coagulants was proposed to eliminate the ClO2– generated from ClO2 pre-oxidation and benefit the post-UV/chlorine process in radical production and ClO3– reduction. Results showed that the addition of 52.1-µmol/L FeSO4 effectively eliminated the ClO2– generated from the pre-oxidation using 1.0 mg/L (14.8 µmol/L) of ClO2. Reduction of ClO2– increased the degradation rate constant of a model micropollutant (carbamazepine) by 55.0% in the post-UV/chlorine process. The enhanced degradation was verified to be attributed to the increased steady-state concentrations of HO· and ClO· by Fe(II) addition. Moreover, Fe(II) addition also decreased the ClO3– formation by 53.8% in the UV/chlorine process and its impact on the formation of chloro-organic byproducts was rather minor. The findings demonstrated a promising strategy to improve the drinking water quality and safety by adding low-level Fe(II) in coagulation in an advanced drinking water treatment train. 相似文献