关于地震预报战略思想的几点思考

在国内外地震学界,围绕要不要公开进行地震预报,能不能承担社会性地震预报的重任,长期争论不休。其内在的原因是地震灾害的影响,地震科研的特点,特别是现阶段地震预报水平过低。在地震预报难度甚大,而实际工作中又不能放弃的形势下,应采取适当的地震预报战略。正确评价、正面宣传地震预报水平,以综合减灾措施支持地震预报,严格把好社会性短临预报关口,掌握好内部预测意见向社会发布的过渡是十分重要的。     

南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游工业发展的影响

南水北调中线工程计划从丹江口水库向我国北方每年调水１４５亿ｍ＾３,汉江丹江口以下地区的水资源量将随之相应减少。汉江中下游地区是湖北省盐化工、机械、石油、食品、化肥、电力的重要生产地区,是湖北省的汽车工业走廊,其经济在湖北省占有举足轻重的地位。由于经济的迅速发展,下世纪工农业生产和人民生活对水资源的需求将从现在的１４０亿ｍ＾３增加到２５０亿ｍ＾３以上,需水量将达到水资源量的５８％,潜伏着严重的水资源     

Experimental study on the effect of fly ash content in cemented paste backfill on its anti-sulfate erosion

ABSTRACT

In order to study the effect of fly ash content in cemented paste backfill (CPB) on its anti-sulfate erosion, the apparent phenomenon, strength development, and hydration products change the law of CPB with different fly ash content under long-term soaking of 5% sodium sulfate solution were studied by the macrotest and microanalysis, in addition, the mechanism of CPB anti-sulfate attack was analyzed by combining with a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The results indicated that the effect of sulfate environment on the strength of fly ash cemented paste backfill (FCPB) was mainly determined by the hydration products in the FCPB at different soaking times. In the early soaking stage, the formation of ettringite (AFt) in FCPB could improve its compactness, which was conducive to improving the strength of FCPB. In the late soaking stage, there were ettringite-type erosion damage and gypsum erosion-type damage internal of the FCPB with low content fly ash, resulting in microfracture, cracking of the FCPB, and reducing the strength. CPB with an appropriate content of fly ash could improve the internal structure of the FCPB to achieve the purpose of anti-sulfate erosion.     

Detailed Ecological Footprint Accounting of Liaoning in 2006

Ecological footprint （EF） has received considerable attention as a useful indicator in the context of sustainable development. So far, EF has been used in numerous studies by academies, organizations and government authorities. However, the results of these studies failed to be comparable directly with each other due to imprecise data sets, unmodified accounting methods of pasture and fossil energy, ignored secondary products, undefined process Of calculating yield factors and improper biocapacity for biodiversity. In this paper, we elaborated on EF estimating methods from six categories of consumption in order to overcome the limitations above. We adopted precise data and revised methods, calculated EF of some secondary products, introduced weighted factor to calculate yield factors and adjusted biocapacity by an appropriate amount. Meanwhile, we investigated the resource consumption of Liaoning Province in 2006 to assess EF. Its results showed that Liaoning Province overused its natural capital and was in an unsustainable state. We concluded that two specific problems that had arisen in EF assessment and gave some suggestions for Liaoning Province to improve its unsustainable state.     

Subcellular distribution and toxicity of cadmium in Potamogeton crispus L

The submerged macrophyte Potamogeton crispus L. was subjected to varying doses of cadmium (0, 20, 40, 60 and 80 μM) for 7 d, and the plants were analyzed for subcellular distribution of Cd, accumulation of mineral nutrients, photosynthesis, oxidative stress, protein content, and ultrastructural distribution of calcium (Ca). Leaf fractionation by differential centrifugation indicated that 48-69% of Cd was accumulated in the cell wall. At all doses of Cd, the levels of Ca and B rose and the level of Mn fell; the levels of Fe, Mg, Zn, Cu, Mo, and P rose initially only to decline later. Exposure to Cd caused oxidative stress as evident by increased content of malondialdehyde and decreased contents of chlorophyll and protein. Photosynthetic efficiency, as indicated by the quenching of chlorophyll a fluorescence (Fv/Fm, Fo and Fm), decreased significantly, the extent of decrease being directly proportional to the concentration of Cd. Increased amounts of precipitates of calcium were noticed in the treated plants, located either outside the cell membrane or in chloroplasts, mitochondria, the nucleus, and the cytoplasm whereas control plants showed small deposits of the precipitates around surface of the vacuole membrane and in the intercellular space but rarely in the cytoplasm. Photosynthetic efficiency and oxidative stress could be used as indicators of physiological end-points in determining the extent of Cd phytotoxicity.     

Risk assessment of potentially toxic element pollution in soils and rice (Oryza sativa) in a typical area of the Yangtze River Delta

Soil pollution with potentially toxic elements (PTEs) resulting from rapid industrial development has caused major concerns. Selected PTEs and their accumulation and distribution in soils and rice (Oryza sativa) collected from Changshu, east China, were analyzed to evaluate the potential health risk to the local population. The soils were primarily contaminated with Hg, followed by Cu, Cd, Pb, and Zn. The concentrations of Pb, Hg, and Cd of 46, 32, and 1 rice samples exceeded their national maximum allowable levels in foods, respectively. Spatial distributions of total Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn, and Cd in soils shared similar geographical trends. The risk assessment of PTEs through rice consumption suggests that the concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Cd in some rice samples exceed their reference oral dose for adults and children. In general, there was no target hazard quotient value of any individual element that was greater than 1, but hazard index values for adults and children were 1.726 and 1.523, respectively.     

运动鞋鞋底防滑性能的研究进展

本文论述了国内外在鞋底防滑性能方面的研究现状，对其发展趋势做了预测，有助于进一步研究鞋底的防滑性能，以提高运动鞋的质量，对着穿者在运动中的保护起到更好的作用，有助于运动质量的提高。     

Coexistence between People and Elephants in African Savannas

Abstract: The decline in the range and numbers of elephants as a result of expanding human activity in Africa is recognized as one of the continent's more serious conservation problems. Understanding the relationship between human settlement patterns and elephant abundance is fundamental to predicting the viability of elephant populations. The prevailing model of human-elephant interaction predicts a negative linear relationship between rising human density and declining elephant density at a coarse (national or subcontinental) scale. Using observed elephant densities and human population data, we tested this prediction in a study area of 15,000 km² in northwestern Zimbabwe. The results did not fit a linear model. Elephant and human coexistence occurs at various levels of human density, up to a threshold of human density beyond which elephant populations disappear. This threshold seems to be related to a particular stage in the process of agriculturally transformed land becoming spatially dominant over the natural woodland that constitutes elephant habitat. Within the contexts of conservation and sustainable development in African savannas, investigating spatial relationships between elephant and human abundance should be a priority topic for future research.