On the decline of ground lichen forests in the Swedish boreal landscape: Implications for reindeer husbandry and sustainable forest management

Lichens are a bottleneck resource for circumpolar populations of reindeer, and as such, for reindeer husbandry as an indigenous Sami land-use tradition in northern Sweden. This study uses ground lichen data and forest information collected within the Swedish National Forest Inventory since 1953, on the scale of northern Sweden. We found a 71 % decline in the area of lichen-abundant forests over the last 60 years. A decline was observed in all regions and age classes and especially coincided with a decrease of >60 year old, open pine forests, which was the primary explanatory factor in our model. The effects of reindeer numbers were inconclusive in explaining the decrease in lichen-abundant forest. The role that forestry has played in causing this decline can be debated, but forestry can have a significant role in reversing the trend and improving ground lichen conditions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0759-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Changes versus homeostasis in alpine and sub-alpine vegetation over three decades in the sub-arctic

Plant species distributions are expected to shift and diversity is expected to decline as a result of global climate change, particularly in the Arctic where climate warming is amplified. We have recorded the changes in richness and abundance of vascular plants at Abisko, sub-Arctic Sweden, by re-sampling five studies consisting of seven datasets; one in the mountain birch forest and six at open sites. The oldest study was initiated in 1977-1979 and the latest in 1992. Total species number increased at all sites except for the birch forest site where richness decreased. We found no general pattern in how composition of vascular plants has changed over time. Three species, Calamagrostis lapponica, Carex vaginata and Salix reticulata, showed an overall increase in cover/frequency, while two Equisetum taxa decreased. Instead, we showed that the magnitude and direction of changes in species richness and composition differ among sites.     

Porosity investigation of compacted bentonite using XRD profile modeling

Many countries intend to use compacted bentonite as a barrier in their deep geological repositories for nuclear waste. In order to describe and predict hydraulic conductivity or radionuclide transport through the bentonite barrier, fundamental understanding of the microstructure of compacted bentonite is needed. This study examined the interlayer swelling and overall microstructure of Wyoming Bentonite MX-80 and the corresponding homo-ionic Na(+) and Ca(2+) forms, using XRD with samples saturated under confined swelling conditions and free swelling conditions. For the samples saturated under confined conditions, the interparticle, or so-called free or external porosity was estimated by comparing the experimental interlayer distances obtained from one-dimensional XRD profile fitting against the maximum interlayer distances possible for the corresponding water content. The results showed that interlayer porosity dominated total porosity, irrespective of water content, and that the interparticle porosity was lower than previously reported in the literature. At compactions relevant for the saturated bentonite barrier (1.4-1.8 g/cm(3)), the interparticle porosity was estimated to ≤3%.     

Barium as a potential indicator of phosphorus in agricultural runoff

In many catchments, anthropogenic input of contaminants, and in particular phosphorus (P), into surface water is a mixture of agricultural and sewage runoff. Knowledge about the relative contribution from each of these sources is vital for mitigation of major environmental problems such as eutrophication. In this study, we investigated whether the distribution of trace elements in surface waters can be used to trace the contamination source. Water from three groups of streams was investigated: streams influenced only by agricultural runoff, streams influenced mainly by sewage runoff, and reference streams. Samples were collected at different flow regimes and times of year and analyzed for 62 elements using ICP-MS. Our results show that there are significant differences between the anthropogenic sources affecting the streams in terms of total element composition and individual elements, indicating that the method has the potential to trace anthropogenic impact on surface waters. The elements that show significant differences between sources are strontium (p < 0.001), calcium (p < 0.004), potassium (p < 0.001), magnesium (p < 0.001), boron (p < 0.001), rhodium (p = 0.001), and barium (p < 0.001). According to this study, barium shows the greatest potential as a tracer for an individual source of anthropogenic input to surface waters. We observed a strong relationship between barium and total P in the investigated samples (R(2) = 0.78), which could potentially be used to apportion anthropogenic sources of P and thereby facilitate targeting of mitigation practices.     

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.     

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Atmospheric pathways of chlorinated pesticides and natural bromoanisoles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment

Long-range atmospheric transport is a major pathway for delivering persistent organic pollutants to the oceans. Atmospheric deposition and volatilization of chlorinated pesticides and algae-produced bromoanisoles (BAs) were estimated for Bothnian Bay, northern Baltic Sea, based on air and water concentrations measured in 2011–2012. Pesticide fluxes were estimated using monthly air and water temperatures and assuming 4 months ice cover when no exchange occurs. Fluxes were predicted to increase by about 50 % under a 2069–2099 prediction scenario of higher temperatures and no ice. Total atmospheric loadings to Bothnian Bay and its catchment were derived from air–sea gas exchange and “bulk” (precipitation + dry particle) deposition, resulting in net gains of 53 and 46 kg year^?1 for endosulfans and hexachlorocyclohexanes, respectively, and net loss of 10 kg year^?1 for chlordanes. Volatilization of BAs releases bromine to the atmosphere and may limit their residence time in Bothnian Bay. This initial study provides baseline information for future investigations of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment.     

Linking Cellulose Fiber Sediment Methyl Mercury Levels to Organic Matter Decay and Major Element Composition

Methylation of mercury (Hg) to highly toxic methyl Hg (MeHg), a process known to occur when organic matter (OM) decomposition leads to anoxia, is considered a worldwide threat to aquatic ecosystems and human health. We measured temporal and spatial variations in sediment MeHg, total Hg (THg), and major elements in a freshwater lagoon in Sweden polluted with Hg-laden cellulose fibers. Fiber decomposition, confined to a narrow surface layer, resulted in loss of carbon (C), uptake of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and sulfur (S), and increased MeHg levels. Notably, fiber decomposition and subsequent erosion of fiber residues will cause buried contaminants to gradually come closer to the sediment–water interface. At an adjacent site where decomposed fiber accumulated, there was a gain in C and a loss of S when MeHg increased. As evidenced by correlation patterns and vertical chemical profiles, reduced S may have fueled C-fixation and Hg methylation at this site.     

Using Vessel Monitoring System Data to Improve Systematic Conservation Planning of a Multiple-Use Marine Protected Area,the Kosterhavet National Park (Sweden)

When spatial fishing data is fed into systematic conservation planning processes the cost to a fishery could be ensured to be minimal in the zoning of marine protected areas. We used vessel monitoring system (VMS) data to map the distribution of prawn trawling and calculate fishing intensity for 1-ha grid cells, in the Kosterhavet National Park (Sweden). We then used the software Marxan to generate cost-efficient reserve networks that represented every biotope in the Park. We asked what were the potential gains and losses in terms of fishing effort and species conservation of different planning scenarios. Given a conservation target of 10 % representation of each biotope, the fishery need not lose more than 20 % of its fishing grounds to give way to cost-efficient conservation of benthic diversity. No additional reserved area was needed to achieve conservation targets while minimizing fishing costs. We discuss the benefits of using VMS data for conservation planning.     

Model selection and evaluation for risk assessment of dioxin-contaminated sites

The general European population has a total intake of dioxins and dioxin-like chemicals near the limit recommended by the European Union, making additional exposure above background levels undesirable. For populations living near dioxin-contaminated sites, additional exposure may occur by intake of locally produced food, inhalation of particles, dermal contact with soils, or other exposure pathways. Risk assessment tools are required to estimate risks associated with contaminated sites and to set priorities for site remediation. Here, we review several multimedia models that can be applied as tools to support risk assessment. We then present a strategy to select, apply, evaluate, and adapt a model to address a specific situation. The case study we consider is a risk assessment of generic background dioxin exposure in Sweden, and we compare the predictions with environmental observations and exposure data from Sweden. Arguments are presented for selecting the CalTOX model for this case study. We demonstrate the application, evaluation, and adaptation of the model and discuss the requirements for extending the analysis to conduct risk assessment for subpopulations living near dioxin-contaminated sites.