Downscaling and visioning of mountain snow packs and other climate change implications in North Vancouver, British Columbia

This paper provides an overview of a collaborative study on visualizing climate change at the local scale. A conceptual framework has been developed, in which local scenarios and visualizations of climate change impacts and response were created to facilitate local dialogue on incorporating climate change into long-term planning and implementation of community development decisions. As part of a larger effort to generate a new integrated participatory visioning process, this paper describes a case study of the District of North Vancouver which created visualizations of changing mountain snow and landscape conditions, and provides new insights on issues and dilemmas in using realistic landscape visualizations to depict scientific modelling projections, local responses to climate change, and uncertainty. Results from this study suggest that the visualizations, and subsequent dialogue sessions, did influence emotional response to climate change as well as self-assessed understanding of adaptation and mitigation response options. However, there is a need to test this visioning process with larger heterogeneous groups of participants in order to better assess its effectiveness in enabling dialogue on local responses to climate change.     

Geographic distribution and environmental characterization of livestock production systems in Eastern Africa

The central role played by livestock in the livelihoods of rural households in the developing world is seldom fully appreciated by policy makers, development agencies and donors. Knowledge gaps in the geographic distribution and environmental determinants of farming systems, especially if viewed through the livestock lens, compound this problem. We have produced a map of pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming systems across Eastern Africa, by analysing datasets collected in the framework of livelihood analysis. Input data were gathered between 2000 and 2007 by various emergency and development agencies for Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and parts of Ethiopia and Sudan. A quantitative definition of the production systems is adopted, based on the ratio of livestock- to crop-derived income. The resulting livelihood-based map of livestock production systems was compared through correspondence analysis to an alternative livestock production systems map, produced independently from environmental data. Convergence between the two mapping approaches was evident. The geographic distribution of the livestock production systems was also modelled using multivariate analysis of remotely sensed and other geospatial datasets. Models show high statistical accuracy, and were thus used to fill the gaps in the observed distribution of livestock production systems. Finally, selected environmental factors underpinning the systems (agro-climatology, human and livestock populations and land cover) were analysed in detail, enabling the livestock production systems to be characterized in terms of them. The regional scope of the map, as well as its direct link with a vast amount of livelihood information, render it a valuable tool for a range of development and research applications, including those related to global change.     

A WATER QUALITY‐BASED APPROACH FOR WATERSHED WIDE BMP STRATEGIES1

ABSTRACT: Watershed management strategies generally involve controlling nonpoint source pollution by implementing various best management practices (BMPs). Currently, stormwater management programs in most states use a performance‐based approach to implement onsite BMPs. This approach fails to link the onsite BMP performance directly to receiving water quality benefits, and it does not take into account the combined treatment effects of all the stormwater management practices within a watershed. To address these issues, this paper proposes a water quality‐based BMP planning approach for effective nonpoint source pollution control at a watershed scale. A coupled modeling system consisting of a watershed model (HSPF) and a receiving water quality model (CE‐QUAL‐W2) was developed to establish the linkage between BMP performance and receiving water quality targets. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was utilized to develop alternative BMP strategies at a watershed level. The developed methodology was applied to the Swift Creek Reservoir watershed in Virginia, and the results show that the proposed approach allows for the development of BMP strategies that lead to full compliance with water quality requirements.     

Environmental regulatory compliance on army lands: A case study

A “finding of no significant impact” (FONSI) resulting from an environmental assessment (EA) was reported by the US Army in June 1986 for the construction and utilization of a multipurpose range complex (MPRC) at the Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii. There was little public response, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service and state agencies were consulted and had few comments concerning the results of the botanical surveys used in the assessment. Construction of the $24 million project was begun in 1988. Near the end of construction in 1989 a lawsuit was filed to halt construction because an environmental impact statement (EIS) had not been done for the project, and the plaintiff thought that significant damage had occurred to several unusual ecosystems. Judgment was against the plaintiff and construction continued. An appeal was filed with the 9th Circuit Court. As MPRC construction was nearly complete, and on advice of Department of Justice lawyers, the Department of Army agreed to settle out of court. The settlement in part called for: (1) the plaintiff to drop the appeal and allow construction to be completed as scheduled, and (2) the Department of Army to prepare an EIS for the operation of the MPRC. A subsequent botanical survey for the EIS discovered one endangered plant species, four category 1 candidate plant species (taxa with sufficient data to support listing as endangered or threatened), three category 2 candidate plant species (taxa with some evidence of vulnerability but insufficient data to support listing at this time), one category 3a species (presumably extinct taxa), and possibly three undescribed species growing within the MPRC boundary. The MPRC case study is an excellent example of why the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) must be modified to require in-depth and thorough environmental surveys.     

Incubation time effects on imazaquin desorption as determined by nonequilibrium thin-soil disc flow

Because organic sorption in soil may never reach equilibrium, a thin-disc flow nonequilibrium method may be helpful in understanding herbicide-soil interactions. This research was conducted to (i) determine the influence of incubation time on imazaquin [2-(4,5-dihydro-4-methyl-4-(1-methylethyl)-5-oxo-1H-imidazol-2-yl)-3-quinolinecarboxylic acid] desorption from soil, (ii) examine the influence of solution flow velocities on desorption, and (iii) elucidate the most appropriate kinetic model to describe imazaquin leaching. Soil at 7.5% moisture w/w was treated with imazaquin and incubated for 24, 72, and 168 h. Treated soil was sealed in an in-line filter apparatus and rinsed with 5.0 mM CaCl2 at 0.33, 0.67, or 1.0 mL min(-1). Effluent was collected as 1.0-mL fractions for a total of 50 mL. Flow was stopped for 24 h. When flow resumed, fractions were collected for an additional 15 mL. After the initial desorption, 79% of the imazaquin incubated for 24 h was leached. Increasing incubation time beyond 24 h reduced imazaquin leaching. After both desorption events, 13% of the initially applied imazaquin remained in the soil incubated for 168 h, compared with 7% with soil incubated for 24 h. Elovich and Freundlich kinetics accounted for 98% of the variance observed in the imazaquin desorption curves. First-order and diffusion kinetics accounted for 91% of the variance. Incubating soil for 72 h before desorption reduced the rate of imazaquin desorption by approximately 12%, compared with the 24-h incubation treatment. Imazaquin desorption was not affected by wash solution flow rate. These data suggest that the kinetics of desorption in prolonged desorption events are limited by transport phenomena (i.e., particle and film diffusion).     

Prediction of cervical spine injury risk for the 6-year-old child in frontal crashes

This article presents a series of 49 km/h sled tests using the Hybrid III 6-year-old dummy in a high-back booster, a low-back booster, and a three-point belt. Although a 10-year review at a level I trauma center showed that noncontact cervical spine injuries are rare in correctly restrained booster-age children, dummy neck loads exceeded published injury thresholds in all tests. The dummy underwent extreme neck flexion during the test, causing full-face contact with the dummy's chest. These dummy kinematics were compared to the kinematics of a 12-year-old cadaver tested in a similar impact environment. The cadaver test showed neck flexion, but also significant thoracic spinal flexion which was nonexistent in the dummy. This comparison was expanded using MADYMO simulations in which the thoracic spinal stiffness of the dummy model was decreased to give a more biofidelic kinematic response. We conclude that the stiff thoracic spine of the dummy results in high neck forces and moments that are not representative of the true injury potential.     

Using nonequilibrium thin-disc and batch equilibrium techniques to evaluate herbicide sorption

Nonequilibrium disc-flow techniques may better reproduce dynamic soil-pesticide interactions than traditional batch sorption studies. Batch kinetic and equilibrium experiments and dual-label thin-disc flow experiments were conducted with atrazine (6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-isopropyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine) and imazaquin [2-(4,5-dihydro-4-methyl-4-(1-methylethyl)-5-oxo-1H-imidazol-2-yl)-3-quinolinecarboxylic acid] using a Demopolis silt loam (loamy-skeletal, carbonatic, thermic, shallow Typic Udorthent; 8% clay, 62 g kg(-1) organic matter, 7.6 pH). Batch kinetic studies with both herbicides revealed an almost instantaneous rapid phase and a much slower gradual phase. The rapid phase was complete after 5 min and equilibrium was reached at 24 h. The rapid phase accounted for 74% and 12 to 30% of the total amounts adsorbed for atrazine and imazaquin, respectively. The sorption of both the rapid and 24-h isotherms for each herbicide best fit the Freundlich equation. The rapid and 24-h K(f) values of atrazine were 1.38 and 2.41, respectively, and the N value of both phases was approximately 0.93. For imazaquin, the rapid and 24-h K(f) values were 0.056 and 035, respectively, and the N value for the rapid phase of imazaquin was 0.71, compared with 0.86 for the 24-h isotherm. In the dual-label thin-disc flow experiments, the average partition coefficient for atrazine at the peak soil concentration point was 1.54. This value closely agreed with the observed rapid-phase K(f) value of 1.38. In contrast, the thin-disc flow experiments failed to detect any imazaquin retention. The thin-disc flow method can allow for a greater resolution of rapid sorption kinetics, which is impractical with batch studies. Along with dynamic partitioning data, the thin-disc flow method may provide kinetics data that may better complement environmental models than coefficients generated with batch techniques.     

Production of radioactive particles for use in environmental studies

This paper presents an aerosol generation technique developed to produce dry aerosol particles of various sizes from aqueous solutions of salt. The technique was tested with sodium chloride, lithium carbonate and uranyl acetate at various aqueous concentrations which produced particles in the size range of 0.13-1.37 microm Mass Median Diameter (MMD). The generated aerosols were acceptably monodisperse with a geometric standard deviation of 1.4-2. Both MMD and Mass Median Aerodynamic Diameter (MMAD) increased significantly (p<0.001) with increased concentration of the salt in solution. The technique can also be used to generate aerosols of different chemical species. The results obtained indicate that the system is convenient for use with various aerosol-forming materials, with a stable particle size distribution being maintained for a long period of steady operation. The technique was successfully applied in wind tunnel studies to simulate the release of submicron radioactive particles and their interception by crops, grass and tree canopies. The relevance and application of the technique in other areas of environmental assessment studies is discussed.     

Radionuclide transport above a near-surface water table: III. Soil migration and crop uptake of three gamma-emitting radionuclides, 1990 to 1993

This paper summarizes the vertical distributions of 22Na, 137Cs, and 60Co above controlled water tables in deep and shallow lysimeters during a four-year experiment. The activity concentration profiles were all determined at the time of harvest of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Pastiche) crop. Activity concentrations in different crop tissues were determined and crop uptake expressed as both an inventory ratio (IR) and a transfer factor (TFw), weighted to account for root and radionuclide distributions within the soil profile. Experimental variates were subjected to analysis of variance to determine the single and combined effects of the soil depth and the year of the experiment on the results obtained. Each radionuclide showed significant variations in activity concentration with soil depth, but the significance of these variations from year to year was dependent on radionuclide. A distinction in the behavior of weakly sorbed (22Na) and more highly sorbed (137Cs and 60Co) radionuclides was observed. The former exhibited significant variations in its distribution in the soil profile from year-to-year whereas the latter did not. Relatively high TF, values for 22Na were maintained throughout the experiment, whereas for 137Cs and 60Co, the highest TFw values were recorded in 1990 followed by a significant decline in 1991, with TFw remaining low in 1992 and 1993. The TFw values were, in general, significantly higher for deep lysimeters than for shallow lysimeters. This is thought to provide evidence of enhanced radionuclide absorption by the relatively small fraction of roots in the vicinity of the deeper water table.     

Non-invasive fetal genotyping for maternal alleles with droplet digital PCR: A comparative study of analytical approaches

Objectives

To develop a flexible droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) workflow to perform non-invasive prenatal diagnosis via relative mutation dosage (RMD) for maternal pathogenic variants with a range of inheritance patterns, and to compare the accuracy of multiple analytical approaches.

Methods

Cell free DNA (cfDNA) was tested from 124 archived maternal plasma samples: 88 cases for sickle cell disease and 36 for rare Mendelian conditions. Three analytical methods were compared: sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), Bayesian and z-score analyses.

Results

The SPRT, Bayesian and z-score analyses performed similarly well with correct prediction rates of 96%, 97% and 98%, respectively. However, there were high rates of inconclusive results for each cohort, particularly for z-score analysis which was 31% overall. Two samples were incorrectly classified by all three analytical methods; a false negative result predicted for a fetus affected with sickle cell disease and a false positive result predicting the presence of an X-linked IDS variant in an unaffected fetus.

Conclusions

ddPCR can be applied to RMD for diverse conditions and inheritance patterns, but all methods carry a small risk of erroneous results. Further evaluation is required both to reduce the rate of inconclusive results and explore discordant results in more detail.