Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

A Cost-Effective Weighing Chamber for Particulate Matter Filters

ABSTRACT

Particulate matter (PM) is a ubiquitous air pollutant that has been receiving increasing attention in recent years due in part to the association between PM and a number of adverse health outcomes, including mortality and increases in emergency room visits and respiratory symptoms, as well as exacerbation of asthma and decrements in lung function.^1-5 As a result, the ability to accurately sample ambient PM has become important, both to researchers and to regulatory agencies. The federal reference method for the determination of fine PM as PM_2.5 in the atmosphere recommends that particle-sampling filters be conditioned and weighed in an environment with constant temperature and relative humidity (RH).⁶ It is also recommended that vibration, electrostatic charges, and contamination of the filters from laboratory air be minimized to reduce variability in filter weight measurements. These controls have typically been maintained in small, environmentally controlled “cleanrooms.” As an alternative to constructing an elaborate cleanroom, we have designed, and presented in this paper, an inexpensive weighing chamber to maintain the necessary level of humidity control.     

Water quality characteristics of discharge from reforested loose-dumped mine spoil in eastern Kentucky

Surface mining is a common method for extracting coal in the coal fields of eastern Kentucky. Using the Forestry Reclamation Approach (FRA), which emphasizes the use of minimally compacted or loose-dumped spoil as a growth medium for trees, reclamation practitioners are successfully reestablishing forests. Yet, questions remain regarding the effects FRA has on the quality of waters discharged to receiving streams. To examine the effect of FRA on water quality, this study compared waters that were discharged from three types of spoils: predominantly brown, weathered sandstone (BROWN); predominantly gray, unweathered sandstone (GRAY); and an equal mixture of both aforementioned sandstones and shale (MIXED). The water quality parameters pH, EC, Ca, K, Mg, Na, NO-N, NH-N, SO, Cl, TC, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), settleable solids (SS), and turbidity were monitored over a 2-yr period on six 0.4-ha plots (two replications per spoil type). Generally, levels of Cl, SO, Ca, NO-N, NH-N, SS, SSC, and turbidity decreased over time. The pH for all spoils increased from about 7.5 to 8.5. The EC remained relatively level in the BROWN spoil, whereas the GRAY and MIXED spoils had downward trajectories that were approaching 500 μS cm. The value of 500 μS cm has been reported as the apparent threshold at which certain taxa such as Ephemeroptera (e.g., Mayfly) recolonize disturbed headwater streams of eastern Kentucky and adjacent coal-producing Appalachian states.     

Atmospheric influences on water quality: a simulation of nutrient loading for the Pearl River Basin, USA

Knowledge of water quality conditions is essential in assessing the health of riverine ecosystems. The goal of this study is to determine the degree to which water quality variables are related to precipitation and air temperature conditions for a segment of the Pearl River Basin near Bogalusa, LA, USA. The AQUATOX ecological fate simulation model is used to estimate daily total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen concentrations over a 2-year period. Daily modeled output for each variable was calibrated against reliably measured data to assess the accuracy. Observed data were plotted against simulated data for controlled and perturbed models for validation, and stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to quantify the relationships between the water quality and meteorological variables. Results suggest that daily dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to concurrent daily mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.679 (p?<?0.01), and monthly dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to monthly mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.567 (p?<?0.01). Total mean monthly phosphorus concentration is significantly positively related to the previous month's precipitation with a total explained variance of 0.302 (p?<?0.01). These relationships suggest that atmospheric conditions have a strong influence on water quality in the Pearl Basin. Therefore, environmental planners should expect that future climatic changes are likely to alter water quality.     

Organochlorine pesticides in soil under irrigated cotton farming systems in Vertisols of the Namoi Valley, north-western New South Wales, Australia

Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) such as DDT and DDE have been detected in the surface 0.2 m of Vertisols in the lower Namoi Valley of north western New South Wales, Australia even though they have not been applied to crops since 1982. However, their presence in the deeper soil horizons has not been investigated. The objective of this study was to determine if OCPs were present to a depth of 1.2 m in Vertisols under irrigated cotton farming systems in the lower Namoi Valley of New South Wales. Soil was sampled from the 0-1.2 m depths in three sites, viz. the Australian Cotton Research Institute, ACRI, near Narrabri (149°36′E, 30°12′S), and two cotton farms near Wee Waa (149°27′E, 30°13′S) and Merah North (149°18′E, 30°12′S) in northern New South Wales, Australia. The OCPs detected and their metabolites were α-endosulfan, β-endosulfan, endosulfan sulphate, DDD, DDE, DDT and endrin. The metabolite DDE, a breakdown product of DDT, was the most persistent OCP in all depths analysed. Endosulfan sulphate was the second most persistent followed by endrin > α-endosulfan > β-endosulfan > DDT and DDD. DDT was sprayed extensively in the lower Namoi Valley up to the early 1980s and may explain the persistence of DDE in the majority of soil samples. Dicofol and Dieldrin, two OCPs previously undocumented in Vertisols were also detected. The movement of OCPs into the subsoil of Vertisols may occur when irrigation or rain transports soil colloids and organic matter via preferential flow systems into the deeper layers of a soil profile. Persistence of OCPs was closely correlated to soil organic carbon concentrations. The persistence in soil of OCP’s applied to cotton crops grown more than two decades ago suggests that they could enter the food chain. Their presence at depths of 1.2 m suggests that they could move into groundwater that may eventually be used for domestic and stock consumption.     

Online sorting of recovered wood waste by automated XRF-technology: part II. Sorting efficiencies

Sorting of waste wood is an important process practiced at recycling facilities in order to detect and divert contaminants from recycled wood products. Contaminants of concern include arsenic, chromium and copper found in chemically preserved wood. The objective of this research was to evaluate the sorting efficiencies of both treated and untreated parts of the wood waste stream, and metal (As, Cr and Cu) mass recoveries by the use of automated X-ray fluorescence (XRF) systems. A full-scale system was used for experimentation. This unit consisted of an XRF-detection chamber mounted on the top of a conveyor and a pneumatic slide-way diverter which sorted wood into presumed treated and presumed untreated piles. A randomized block design was used to evaluate the operational conveyance parameters of the system, including wood feed rate and conveyor belt speed. Results indicated that online sorting efficiencies of waste wood by XRF technology were high based on number and weight of pieces (70-87% and 75-92% for treated wood and 66-97% and 68-96% for untreated wood, respectively). These sorting efficiencies achieved mass recovery for metals of 81-99% for As, 75-95% for Cu and 82-99% of Cr. The incorrect sorting of wood was attributed almost equally to deficiencies in the detection and conveyance/diversion systems. Even with its deficiencies, the system was capable of producing a recyclable portion that met residential soil quality levels established for Florida, for an infeed that contained 5% of treated wood.     

Flame Temperature in Oil-Fired Fuel-Burning Equipment and its Relationship to Carbonaceous Particulate Emissions

Field tests were conducted on 82 fuel-burning installations ranging from 50 to 500 hp, fired with residual fuel oils. A flame pyrometer was used to measure peak flame temperatures. Coarse particulates were measured by impingement on adhesive paper strips inserted at right angles to the gas flow and fine particulates by filtration of the gas sample through filter paper. Both were evaluated using a standard Bacharach Scale. The tests clearly established that both coarse and fine particulate matter invariably occurred with low flame temperatures but decreased appreciably when peak flame temperatures reached approximately 2650°F; Minimum values were observed at temperatures somewhere between 2750 and 2850°F. This research was conducted as a result of the problem of acid smut and carbonaceous (ceno-sphere) fallout which appears to have increased with the advent of modern high-efficiency low-temperature heating installations and taller, cooler operating chimneys; sudden deluges of particles from the chimney serving large oil-burning plants soil clothing, pit car finishes, and damage nylon stockings and other materials.     

Soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the first year following herbicide and scalping in a revegetation trial in south-east Queensland,Australia

During revegetation, the maintenance of soil carbon (C) pools and nitrogen (N) availability is considered essential for soil fertility and this study aimed to evaluate contrasting methods of site preparation (herbicide and scalping) with respect to the effects on soil organic matter (SOM) during the critical early establishment phase. Soil total C (TC), total N (TN), hot-water extractable organic C (HWEOC), hot-water extractable total N (HWETN), microbial biomass C and N (MBC and MBN), total inorganic N (TIN) and potentially mineralizable N (PMN) were measured over 53 weeks. MBC and MBN were the only variables affected by herbicide application. Scalping caused an immediate reduction in all variables, and the values remained low without any sign of recovery for the period of the study. The impact of scalping on HWETN and TIN lasted 22 weeks and stabilised afterwards. MBC and MBN were affected by both herbicide and scalping after initial treatment application and remained lower than control during the period of the study but did not decrease over time. While scalping had an inevitable impact on all soil properties that were measured, that impact did not worsen over time, and actually improved plant growth (unpublished data) while reducing site establishment costs. Therefore, it provides a useful alternative for weed control in revegetation projects where it is applied only once at site establishment and where SOM would be expected to recover as canopy closure is obtained and nutrient cycling through litterfall commences.